Ben Rabidoux, at his website The Economic Analyst, has recently reviewed the Vancouver RE market in an article entitled ‘Vancouver housing in full correction mode: Implications for Canadian banks’ [3 Aug 2012].
We earlier headlined a single paragraph from Ben’s article (comparing Vancouver and the US with regard to $1 Million homes), but we’d also emphasize that the entire article is worth the read. Check it out.
– vreaa
Most Recent Comments:
- amitamv on “I’m surprised that everyone else is so surprised to hear anyone talk about a housing bubble” – “Canadian RE 2021 worse than U.S. bubble at 2006 peak” – David Rosenburg
- Keith on “I’m surprised that everyone else is so surprised to hear anyone talk about a housing bubble” – “Canadian RE 2021 worse than U.S. bubble at 2006 peak” – David Rosenburg
- Judy Green on “I’m surprised that everyone else is so surprised to hear anyone talk about a housing bubble” – “Canadian RE 2021 worse than U.S. bubble at 2006 peak” – David Rosenburg
- space889 on “I’m surprised that everyone else is so surprised to hear anyone talk about a housing bubble” – “Canadian RE 2021 worse than U.S. bubble at 2006 peak” – David Rosenburg
- Seeking Knowledge on “I’m surprised that everyone else is so surprised to hear anyone talk about a housing bubble” – “Canadian RE 2021 worse than U.S. bubble at 2006 peak” – David Rosenburg
- vreaa on “I’m surprised that everyone else is so surprised to hear anyone talk about a housing bubble” – “Canadian RE 2021 worse than U.S. bubble at 2006 peak” – David Rosenburg
- space889 on “I’m surprised that everyone else is so surprised to hear anyone talk about a housing bubble” – “Canadian RE 2021 worse than U.S. bubble at 2006 peak” – David Rosenburg
- space889 on “I’m surprised that everyone else is so surprised to hear anyone talk about a housing bubble” – “Canadian RE 2021 worse than U.S. bubble at 2006 peak” – David Rosenburg
- Conflarian on “I’m surprised that everyone else is so surprised to hear anyone talk about a housing bubble” – “Canadian RE 2021 worse than U.S. bubble at 2006 peak” – David Rosenburg
- Conflarian on “I’m surprised that everyone else is so surprised to hear anyone talk about a housing bubble” – “Canadian RE 2021 worse than U.S. bubble at 2006 peak” – David Rosenburg
- space889 on “I’m surprised that everyone else is so surprised to hear anyone talk about a housing bubble” – “Canadian RE 2021 worse than U.S. bubble at 2006 peak” – David Rosenburg
- Bull! Bull! Bull! on “I’m surprised that everyone else is so surprised to hear anyone talk about a housing bubble” – “Canadian RE 2021 worse than U.S. bubble at 2006 peak” – David Rosenburg
-
Type of Anecdote
- 01. He Said, She Said (248)
- 02. Profiting from the Boom (446)
- 03. Changed my Life (106)
- 04. Changed my Career (39)
- 05. Where do Buyers get the money? (1,111)
- 06. Held my Nose and Leapt (97)
- 07. Avoiding Vancouver (378)
- 08. Overextended Buyers (1,198)
- 09. Delaying Buying (316)
- 10. Demoralized Renters? (367)
- 11. Regrets about Investing in RE (417)
- 12. Effects of Development (279)
- 13. 2010 Olympics Related (74)
- 14. Social Effects of the Boom (1,266)
- 15. Misallocation of Resources (967)
- 16. Missed The Boat? (237)
- 17. The Froogle Scott Chronicles (27)
- 18. Spot The Speculator (174)
- 19. BlastRadiusPostCards (17)
- 20. The Limitless Demand Argument For Ongoing Market Strength (70)
- 21. Vancouver RE-Verse [Found Poems] (8)
- 22. RE References In Popular Culture (45)
- 23. Jumping The Shark (1)
- 24. Policies On Housing (11)
- 25. Epigrams For The Bubble (1)
- 26. Premature Calls Of "Bottom" (3)
- 27. Seller Panic (3)
- 28. Erroneous Causation Theories For Falling Prices (7)
- 29. Bubblespeak (1)
- Uncategorized (177)
Blogroll
- 01 Vancouver Condo Info
- 02 AmericaCanada [retired, no archive]
- 03 Housing Analysis
- 04 RealEstateTalks BC
- 05 Vancouver RE and then some
- 06 Whispers from the Village on the Edge of the Rainforest
- 07 Greater Fool
- 08 Canada Bubble
- 09 Rob Chipman's blog
- 10 YatterMatters
- 11 condohype [retired; archives available]
- 12 vancouver (un)real estate
- 13 Agent Will's Stats [retired]
- 14 Landlord Rescue
- 15 The Economic Analyst
- 16 Canadian Housing Price Charts
- 17 Hoodsurf [retired Jun 2011]
- 18 World Housing Bubble
- 19 Vancouver Price Drop
- 20 North American Economics
-
Latest Anecdotes:
- “I’m surprised that everyone else is so surprised to hear anyone talk about a housing bubble” – “Canadian RE 2021 worse than U.S. bubble at 2006 peak” – David Rosenburg
- “Always the Right Time to Buy!” – Cheap Rope For Vancouver RE Buyers
- Mortgage Squeeze Anecdotes – “Two days ago my mortgage holder called and told me that, after 22 years, they would not renew my mortgage.”
- Wow! – CMHC CEO Evan Siddall Points To Unsustainable Debt & Calls For 18% Drop In Housing Prices – [which of course would mean a lot more off]
- Prediction: Vancouver RE Prices Will Not Crash… Unless They Crash
- Pre-Existing Disease – COVID Economic Stress Uncovers Longstanding Vulnerability in Vancouver RE Market
- COVID-19 the Pin for the Highly Debt-Leveraged Vancouver RE Bubble?
- Vancouver Sun Headline – ‘Five more Metro Vancouver homeowners hosed in a falling market’
- Vancouver RE Prices – Where is the Support?
- Money Laundering & Vancouver Home Prices
- “Psychologically, They’re Ill-Prepared” – “Canadian Chaos Looms”
- Keeping Up With Other Bubbles – Australia Suddenly Not Running Out Of Land Anymore – “Aussie House Prices Could Halve”
- Watershed? or Dam-Collapsing? – Mainstream Media Quoting Vancouver RE Bear-Tweets, and Predicting Shrinking Realtor Numbers – “What they’re used to is not what real estate is typically like.”
- “Within artistic communities in Vancouver it’s hard to spend more than 15 minutes at a social gathering without talking about the cost of rent or knowing of someone who is being evicted.”
- Macleans Wakes Up – ‘This is how Canada’s housing correction begins’ – “We’re not ready for what happens next”
- Vancouver Detached – Sales Down, Prices Down
- Bloomberg Calls Vancouver ‘The City That Had Too Much Money’
- “Our family loves Vancouver, but we’re leaving because the struggle to live here is simply too hard”
- Tendency Towards Corruption Is Inevitable – How Do We Minimize Its Existence?
- Hard Earned Home Savings? Hardly.
- “You know your real estate is in bad shape when there is a game app that displays Vancouver’s Science World and teaches you how to be a money hungry real estate developer.”
- “It’s sinking in that Vancouver is sinking” – “Westside prices have fallen 17% from 2016 & 11% this year; sales volumes down by 80%; 3 years worth of >$3 Million inventory”
- The Carrion Have The Carcass – “I’ve lived in Vancouver since 1968; my wife was born here; we are about to leave; this town has priced us out. All that is left are the investors and the very rich visitors.”
- All Time High, And Climbing… $251 Billion Personal Debt Borrowed Against Canadian Homes
- “I asked a group of young people how many of them thought they’d be in Vancouver in two years, and 17 out of 18 said that they would be moving.” – Mayoral Candidate Shauna Sylvester
- Off-The-Charts Unaffordable – Greater Vancouver Price-To-Income Ratio 28 (average home price: $1,071,800, median one-person income: $38,164)
- Conflicts of Interest – BC MLAs Heavily Invested In RE Making Laws About RE
- File Under Tags: ‘Tolerant Vancouver Renter’ and ‘YouGottaBeKiddinMe’
- Vancouver “an international housing-affordability basket case” with “RE bubble risk the worst in the world” – Maclean’s
- Vancouver Economy Over-Dependent On Debt Spending
- Vancouver City Councillors Wake Up To ‘Fierce Speculative Demand’ – “There is significant evidence speculative investment has the biggest impact on housing costs in the city.”
- The Dance Around Foreign Ownership of Vancouver RE
- Information From Outside The Vancouver RE Bubble – U.S. Senator Lives In (don’t laugh) $500K Home
- “The Position Remains Unfilled”
- Jessica Barrett – ‘I Left Vancouver Because Vancouver Left Me’ – “Like Living On An Abandoned Film Set.”
- “I’ve thought since early 2010 that Vancouver housing was in a bubble, and have refused to buy a house for this reason. I’ve felt that the risk of mean-reversion was far higher than the risk of missing the upside.”
- “It is very difficult to live here.”
- “We want young people to buy Real Estate.” – Vancouver’s Mayor
- “Vancouver RE Balloon Pricked; Median Price Detached Home Down >$500,000 to $1.7 million; Prices Need To Be Slashed”
- Detached Price Trend Remains Up, For Now. Speculators Hold Their Breath?
Follow vreaa on twitter
Tweets by vreaaVREAArchives
- March 2021
- June 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- December 2019
- July 2019
- May 2019
- April 2019
- February 2019
- January 2019
- December 2018
- October 2018
- September 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- June 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- December 2014
- October 2014
- September 2014
- August 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- March 2014
- February 2014
- December 2013
- July 2013
- June 2013
- May 2013
- April 2013
- March 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- December 2012
- November 2012
- October 2012
- September 2012
- August 2012
- July 2012
- June 2012
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- October 2008
- September 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
Tags
affordability Alberta Anecdotes Asia Audio anecdote Australia Bailout Banks Bears blogs British Columbia Bubble Bulls buyers Canada Capitulation Caveat Children China CMHC Construction Crime Debt Densification Developers Dreams Earthquake Economy Edmonton Employment Fear Foreclosure Foreign buyers FTBs Fundamentals Government Housing Incomes Interest Rates Ireland Landlords Life Market_Timing Media Mortgage brokers Okanagan Olympics ontario opinion Ottawa Ownership Prediction Rain Real Estate Realtors Relationships Renos Rent Retirement RE_ATM Seattle sellers Sentiment Speculators Stories Tax Technical Analysis Toronto UBC UK US Vancouver Victoria Visual Anecdote Whistler
Looks pretty serious… OK, this is a clearly job for the BalineseTempleBoyz… [They’ve had a lot of practice appeasing Hephaestus/Pele.]
[NoteToEd: I know… I know… Nobody wants to cut these guys any slack since they ScrewedThePooch with the Krakatoa job. But, like, come on… that was what… a 129 years ago?]
Very cool.
Forget real estate. I read this blog to see what Nemesis will post next….
++
sir_nem, i was thinking, in the present case, no one will be take seriously without ritual sacrifice … pssst (blog has spare jesse now)
Strange. With Nem, you skip his intro and look for his article. Skip his videos. With chubster, you skip everything — I’ve never seen a single thing he’s ever posted related to real estate.
@not_gatsby … faith in watertight compartments is a fatal flaw, amply demonstrated … also thought originally of sacrificing some or all of f1’s multiple persons, but apparently someone may already have … and then my own but realized far too self-important 😀
TeeHee! ThankYou HomeLess!!!
[NoteToChub: They can’t help it… NatureOrNuture? http://tinyurl.com/cw2yohp ]
The clip is from the movie “Baraka.” It’s directed by Ron Fricke who did the cinematography for “Koyaanisqatsi.” Critics will go on about how some movies are supposedly visually stunning. These movies absolutely are. They really are worth and hour or two out of your life.
Oooops….
[Reuters] – Flash, boom, New Zealand volcano roars to life
http://tinyurl.com/bthu2f9
[3NewsNZ] – Moment of Tongariro eruption: ‘Flames and sparks’ filled sky
http://tinyurl.com/c6qbxm4
But don’t worry, Vancouverites! Whether its AffordableHousing or DisasterPreparedness…CityHall’s got your back!…
[Province] – Calling on all Vancouver volunteers for new city program
“Over the next three to four years, the city hopes to get 1,000 to 1,500 people to join the Vancouver Volunteer Corps. The volunteers get a blue golf-style shirt and a lanyard with a name tag identifying them as a member of the Corps. At special events, they’ll even get a vest to make them even more prominent.”
http://tinyurl.com/ckk7pwt
[NoteToEd: File This One Under “Ooops”… CBC – Rescue team cut: Vancouver’s Urban Search and Rescue Team is ‘shell-shocked’ by federal budget cuts: http://tinyurl.com/cvu8asq ]
they had me at blue golf shirt…
After looking over these graphs and looking over my data, I find it interesting how difficult it is to justify normalizing Vancouver’s price growth to a specific level. I’ve retreated from all this and have been looking at condo prices and rents. It’s a decent apples-apples comparison to the CMHC rent survey trendline (that Ben uses).
Overall I think Ben has presented datasets and macro developments that are key determinants describing Vancouver’s situation, though I would have added mortgage rate spreads to inflation measures look to be remaining low for a while. It’s hard to tell when real rates will be positive but I’ve argued negative real rates won’t save the housing market in the long run; other factors like lack of asset liquidity, income growth, unemployment rate, housing supply, and migration will see to it one way or another.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complexity_economics#Criticism
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_quantum_mechanics
Then again… however useful our analytic and predictive mathematical abstractions are… when it comes to “status and implications”… the answers are frequently right there for all to see… ‘hiding’ in plain view…
“Students are having to make some pretty hard choices. Perhaps choosing housing that’s not what they would consider safe or what they would consider ideal for their families.” – Tiffany Kalanj, Vancouver Community College Student Union
[G&M] – Road scholars: B.C.’s cash-strapped students take to living in their cars
“As Vancouver’s university students stare down the final weeks of August, attention turns to where to live come Sept. 1. For some, faced with rising rents and long waiting lists for on-campus housing, the solution is extreme: Moving into their cars. “I decided, to save money, I’m going to try living in my van as long as I can,” said Anna Baignoche, a master’s student at the University of British Columbia. She lived in her van part-time during the past three years.”…
http://tinyurl.com/ckxok8t
Well as the boomers would say, this is all part of the sweat and tears that young people need to go through to learn what a hard life the boomers had, and come out better prepare for life. These young people need to just suck up, stop complaining, and start working! No more handouts! 🙂
Is a student living in a van to cut down on costs news these days?
I would like to get fellow commentors thoughts about implications for banks with the bubble bursting.
With CMCH backing, what is the worst case scenario we would see?
I cant imagine any of the big 5 going under. If the US taught us anything, Lehman aside, most of the banks just got bigger and bigger.
With most of their vulnerable product CMHC insured, they’re not going to take whopping huge hits from mortgage defaults, but the deleveraging on other products will hurt bad — people will pay down or default on their cards, take far fewer auto and home improvement loans, etcetera.
I’d say look at the banks’ business outside Canada: What % of their revenues, and how fast is it growing? It varies considerably between institutions. Of course, if CMHC started putting back loans due to fraudulent or negligent underwriting, that’d change the calculus a bit.