First, a Toronto Story: “The home sold for 25 per cent less than what John had paid just five months earlier, a loss of $500,000”
“The house in Toronto was the type of property highly coveted by those in the city: fully detached on a sprawling lot, recently renovated and adorned with granite countertops, hardwood floors and a solarium. John, who asked that his name not be used for reasons that will become obvious, knew he had to make an offer. He figured he could rent it out, and if the payments didn’t cover the mortgage costs, no matter. Back in early 2017, home prices in Toronto were on an unstoppable tear, surging double-digits every month. The house would surely be worth more in no time. The home was on the market for only a few days when John’s offer was accepted. He bid nearly $1.9 million, about $360,000 more than the list price. Then everything fell apart.
John, a real estate agent, thought he had financing lined up. But the bank declined to lend him the money. John had recently formed his own brokerage, and the bank was treating self-employed individuals with far more caution in an overheated market. He consulted two lawyers, who told him that if he walked away from the deal, he could be sued. John decided he had no choice but to take a mortgage from a private lender that carried a hefty 12 per cent interest rate. He knew there was no way he could afford the payments and listed the property as soon as he took ownership.
But there was another problem. During the closing period, the Ontario government introduced the Fair Housing Plan, which included a 15 per cent tax on non-resident buyers. The plan released the air from the housing market, and prices took a nosedive. John’s investment property sat on the market for 27 agonizing days before a buyer could be found. The home sold for 25 per cent less than what John had paid just five months earlier, leading to hundreds of thousands of dollars in losses [ballpark $500,000 -ed.]. “I was so greedy,” he says now. “I will not play the game like that again.” Painful as it was, he looks back at the debacle as a learning experience. He even purchased some books about real estate investment on Amazon to learn how to do it properly.
John’s tale of misfortune isn’t exactly unique. Hundreds of Greater Toronto Area residents were caught when the housing market took an abrupt dive last year after a long run of booming activity. Home sales plummeted 32 per cent from the peak, and prices cratered by 10 to more than 30 per cent in the suburbs, depending on the municipality.”
– image and excerpt from ‘The people who bought at the peak of Toronto’s real estate bubble, and then lost hundreds of thousands within months’, Joe Castaldo, Maclean’s, 4 May 2018 [hat-tip El Ninja]
Second, some Vancouver market facts from Garth Turner: “On the Westside prices have fallen 17% from 2016 and 11% this year while sales volumes have evaporated 80%”
“Detached home sales are crashing hard. What everyone wanted two years ago sits idle and unloved. Transactions are down by a third to the lowest level ever for an April.
In West Van sales are off by half. Incredible. Only 30-odd deals. Another spring record. Sales in Richmond have been sliced almost 60%.
Over six thousand listings materialized across the province in a single day. The meme is spreading. This ship’s going down.
Overall, sales are reduced an astonishing 62% from 2016. The lowest number in 30 years.
The average sale price has declined 6% from last year, 8% from 2017 – and this is just the start.
Two Aprils ago $3.5 billion was spent on housing in Vancouver. This April that fell to $1.35 billion. That’s $2 billion less spent in a single month. If you think there will not be economic implications, you’re wrong.
On the Westside prices have fallen 17% from 2016 and 11% this year while sales volumes have evaporated 80%. There is three years’ worth of inventory for houses valued at $3 million or more – the ones the NDP has targeted for a special punitive tax.
Over 90% of the houses now selling are going for less than asking. Two years ago, almost all were over ask. In April there were as many price reductions on detached houses as there were sales. Yes, it’s sinking in, that Van is sinking.”
– excerpt from ‘The big shed’, Garth Turner, 2 May 2018 [hat-tip El Ninja]
If a serious market correction were to commence, this is pretty much what it would look like. The beginning of a lengthy, drawn out correction process… Watch as wave after wave of ‘Johns’ sell at lower and lower prices. It’ll take years to play out.
Ultimate target: The return of Vancouver RE prices to those determined by the utility of property in our economy.