The Importance of Buying at Vaguely the Right Time

When somebody next claims to you that RE, or any investment, always goes up “in the long run”, or by “x% p.a. over any 20 year period”, and that you should therefore simply buy & hold, show them this diagram. It’s from Carl Richards, at a NYTimes investment blog 10 Aug 2010. One implication is that the time that you buy can make massive differences in your actual dollar returns. – vreaa

An Owner (& Wannabe Move-Upper), Foreseeing Price Moves, Debates Sell Versus Stay-Put

We suspect that the vast majority of such owners who have hunches about price drops will initially decide to stay, but that many will start to liquidate once price drops start, and, particularly, once the drops establish themselves fully (by dropping below the early 2009 trough). -vreaa

These two posts from sarenka at RE Talks 13 Feb 2010 11:14 pm & 14 Feb 2010 12:39 am –

[Question:] “I have been living in my condo for a long time. I have it paid off. No more mortgage. I have a child so it would be nice to have a small yard so my child can play there. I believe that the prices will go down in the future. When? I don’t know. It can be a year or it can be two. There is no way I would buy a house now. I have been thinking about selling my condo soon. However, if I sell it, I will need to rent something. What would you do? Would you sell your paid of place and would you go to rent???? or would you stay where you are saving your money for a down payment when the market will go down so you can buy a house?”

[Answer:] “I like my place. It is in great location. It is very close to our works. We have 2 bedrooms so one more bedroom or den would be good. However, what if the market will not go down than I would be stuck renting. I am not sure what to do. Maybe I should just stay and see what will happen.”