“Sales volumes are incredibly weak with buyers looking for steep discounts and many sellers still unrealistic with their asking prices. However, sellers who need to sell for whatever reason are increasingly having to lower their prices. There is often a rhetoric that “sellers simply won’t sell” if they don’t get their price, and while this may be true the reality is there are still sellers who absolutely need to move on, such as estate sales, divorces or job relocation. These sellers are ultimately setting the benchmark lower.”
– charts and quote from Realtor Steve Saretsky
Classic dynamic for a declining market.
Will crucial technical price supports hold?
Will buyers “rush in” to “snap up ‘bargains'” ??
Fundamental supports are f-a-r below. -ed.
No listings turkey Saretsky and no listings turkey Eitel – two anal lists.
The data speaks for itself. Ain’t pretty. Gonna get a whole lot worse.
But by all means go on ignoring it, because “Saretsky”.
Sales strength seems to vary quite a bit by area. Contrasting the steep decline in sales for the entire REBGV area, my neighbourhood (a specific area in Richmond) had a significant increase in sales! Sales were up 86% YOY (Nov 2017: 7 sales, Nov 2018: 13 sales).
I’m counted among those purchases– I bought a townhouse last month. Got a 25% discount from the seller, who had an unrealistic asking price (the seller’s price would’ve been realistic back in the spring). I paid less than the assessed value.
Those who read the data (i.e. not most realtors and not most journalists) know that the lower mainland is awash in below-assessment listings…listings that have sat and sat and sat.
Recall further that the current assessments were taken in July 2017. Meaning that would-be sellers are now having a hard time getting prices from 18 months ago.
January 2 2019 is an important day: It’s the day that the 2018 assessments are published and home moaners start to come to grips with the fact that this is a mother fucking blood sport.
ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?
I’m *thoroughly* entertained! I think the assessments that Condo & TH owners will receive in January will reflect insane values, *higher* than their current assessments, even though they can no longer achieve even their current assessments.
It’s going to make for some interesting & contradictory news articles!
I sold my last place for well over assessment during late spring. This fall, nicer units in my building were selling closer to the previous year’s assessment… But in the summer, they were all selling over the current assessment.
I found a graph showing the probable price trajectory from 2018-2028:
805 1678 Pullman Porter: listed at 4 mil. Ridiculous agent spouts about dramatic views of the ocean. Newsflash – False Creek is not the ocean. It does have a special view of Rotten Ronnie’s big M though.
But, this typical toad has 16 listings. Maybe if he wasted his time making charts and blowing it out of his hole like other anal lists, he wouldn’t have any listings either.
If Arnie is to have any hope of attracting a woman in his life, he needs to expand his vocabulary, among other changes.
3343 Wellington: the nicest thing about this dog is that you don’t have to waste time going in to be repelled – a prime example of what not to build. Crappy street too.
If you have any sense whatsoever, any WHATSOEVER, you are not participating in this market as a buyer. End of story.
You are steering clear, as you would steer clear of gunfire. Or a raging case of herpes.
Don’t trick yourself into thinking “certain areas” are different. No. They are not different.
The whole city is going down. The whole country is going down.
If you are buying now, you will get burned. This is just the beginning.
It depends, all postal codes will go down but some of them will bottom before others.
1372 E 49th Avenue, Vancouver
Dec 5: $1,200,000
Change: – 298000.00 -20%
A: $1,279,300 ( Sold Sept 2017 for 1,307,000$)
Wow prices are down a lot.
“Vancouver-area home prices to fall 3% in 2019: RE/MAX”
I think there was a typo because they forgot to add a one in front of the 3%
I’ve posted before about bong-smoking charlatan Phil Doper, CEO of Royal LeFraud, and his shameful market pumping.
Well, ladies and gentlemen, I bring you this.
Behold, in all its glory:
“A typical Vancouver family.”
Chile-con-Arnie, and other self-loathing sell outs, want to bring in more.
6643 Vivian St: scraper bought two years ago for $1.5M. New-build listed at $3M. An atrocious house – dysfunctional layout thrown together by bling builders who have never cooked a meal, done laundry, or taken a course, or read a book on design. A carbuncle. A colossal waste of money and energy. An offense. An insult.
4310 Maple: an entire taxidermied brown bear standing up; and a bear head mounted to the wall. That’s some badass craziness. House is decent in a very good location, but those bears … wtf … that’s a new one.
3442 Quesnel: a rare offering. Worth looking at – not buying.
Bought as a scraper for $2M in 2013.
Assessed at $5M – Listed at $6.3M. Ouch.
Parts are good, but the kitchen sucks big time. Would be nice to see the laundry – it probably sucks big time too.
Interesting that they squeezed in a small fourth level – played with the wild slope to get around height limits. Has a car lift. Yowza.
Staging not as horrendous as most, but a ram’s head mounted on the wall? That’s gotta excite the hipsters. Not.
3885 Broadway: show the world you have lots of cash and no taste. Typical toilet rug staging. But the must see is the “funcitonal laungry”. Unfortunately there are no pics.
3425 34th Ave W: listed at $1.7M over assessed for this pile with no lane. $6.88M for a house with no lane?!
Close enough to vicious 33rd to make your back yard painful.
Toilet rug stagers were at it again. Who hires these clowns?
2008 43rd Ave W: assessed at $5.2M. Listed at $7.5M. House has the Ugh factor.
Play “Where’s Waldo” substituting toilet rugs for Waldo. Curious to know if the stagers are shuttling the same toilet rug to different locations, or did they bring a stack.
1975 Trimble: bought three years ago for $3M. Listed at $8.3M. Marketed as a scraper.
1235 39th Ave W: bought five years ago for $3.7M. Listed close to $9M.
Toilet rut staging with large cheap art prints.
Listing was removed Dec 1.
3968 St Pauls Ave, N.V.: buyer’s remorse.
Bought on a whim Sep 2015 for $3.558M.
Resold two months later for $$3.338M.
With associated costs, that’s over $200K in the toilet.
Now listed at $3.998M. Reseller hopes to slam almost $600K after having a new house to use for three years.
Dreadful location. Walk score of 33. And you better have the legs of a mountain goat.
Toilet rug staging of this ill-designed turkey.
3990 Loraine, N.V.: a massively hideous house. A pile of bling vomit. Horrendous layout. Huge patio doors to let in the bugs and bears.
One of the worst houses ever. Yours for $4M.
Can you spot the toilet rug? Maybe the stagers need a few more to dress up this mausoleum.
PH 02 1011 Cordova W: discounted by $8M since last list. Omg, the market is crashing, the sky is falling … wait a sec … how much did they pay for it, and how long ago … oh, they paid $10.6M not even 8 years ago, and now they’re listing at $30M?!
Barista / market analyst Annie still thinks list price = sold price.
Why are people so f*cking stupid?
It ain’t a gain till it’s in the bank.
That is the cold, hard reality awaiting so many self-perceived “rich” Vancouverites (a perception that is diminishing by the day). It’s all on paper.
i’ve come to conclude that most ppl just don’t have a clue … and why would they? … they’ve been doing fine just following the herd for so long … there’s been no motivation to doubt conventional wisdom and think independently … the current setup is for possibly the biggest market crash of all time
Oh, yes. It’s going to be big. Whereas before I was worried about Vancouver, now I’m worried about the whole world. Global debt unprecedented. U.S. going down.
A Depression-style outcome is not at all inconceivable.
Question is, will the politicians pull off one last ruse, and keep this gasbag inflated a little longer? Or are we now seeing the beginning of the end?
still well below long-term normal rates but a major turn, probably generational, in bonds roughly mid-2016 … borrowing costs way up since … all highly-levered markets already cracked hard … highly-visible major 1st world equities just the last domino … when we crash enough, fed will reverse … then let’s see what happens … currency markets could get pretty ugly
So it’ll for sell 30 M$?
460 Hillcrest: wannabe renoflip. Bought 2017 for $3.05M. Listed at $6.645M.
The antithesis of homey. Cold as a morgue. Horrible car-dependent location.
7281 Angus: bought 3 1/2 years ago for $3.5M. Listed at $7M.
6335 Elm St: first time for sale in 41 years – bought for $205K. Big lot, but no lane, and facing a dreaded T. $6M. Probably a scraper.
Funny. Two houses on that street nearby are illegal Airbnbs that I ratted out. They are probably fed up with all the tourists coming and going.
Real question is: Can you play badminton on the street?
Sure you can. Nobody lives there. Only empty houses on that hood.
MERRY CHRISTMAS! … https://tinyurl.com/y96nmgrq
3203 29th Ave E: built in 1927. Just past horse and buggy days. First time for sale. The old owner used it as a storage space. What a waste. The empty house tax flushed him out. Too old now to enjoy the cash – a prime example of the time value of money.
It was never sold since 1927! Wow…
I agree it’ll be teardown but it would be a great spot for a duplex. Close to a school and not too far from Joyce station.
“PH 02 1011 Cordova W” 30 M$ listing was removed. I wonder why…
Someone just woke up:
1370 Ottaburn Road, West Vancouver
Dec 27: $3,800,000
Change: – 2100000.00 -36%
Ottaburn – bought as a scraper for $1M six years ago.
All the elements working in harmony. Weird-shaped lot; grotesque pretentious house; atrocious noisy location; car-dependent.
Who’d want to live there even if the price were dropped by a million?
Just because you don’t want to live there, doesn’t mean no one else does.
This is called the Fallacy of Personal Incredulity.
You couldn’t PAY ME to live in rat trap East Van, for example. And yet for you, it’s “fabulous.”
18068 96Ave: 2 acre farmland property evalue assessed at $2,774.00. Buildings at $45K. Hell’s Angels aren’t stupid.
Are there any housing classes or areas in Vancouver that are still going up in price? Or even just staying flat?
Or have they all joined the downward spiral started two years ago in West side detached (bubble epicenter)?
That might help. Sadly, it’s only city by city.
3875 Lillooet: love to see listings like this. A museum piece. Looks like it was Portuguese-owned from day one – 73 years ago. Owners must be dead. Destined for the scraper.
This is the exact type of house that should be converted to a duplex or even a triplex. It’s close to two skytrain stations.
We might see a lot of those listings in the upcoming months:
2221 W 16th Avenue, Vancouver
Jan 2: $2,788,000
Change: – 1100800.00 -28%
A – 2018: $2,944,200
A – 2019: $2,341,900
Next door is for sale too. Keeping up with the Jones’ I guess:
2225 W 16th Avenue, Vancouver
Jan 2: $2,788,000
Change: – 1100800.00 -28%
This illustrates how stupid Vancouver real estate became.
$4mil for a house on busy 16th? Heeeeeeell, no.
These idiots were shooting for the stars.
Now, they’re eating dirt back on planet Earth.
3122 47th Ave E: refreshing to see a house with no staging; nunchuks hanging on the wall, oh my. A sad little post-war tract house on the massive Killarney Bog. Bought in 1986 for $97K. Listed at $1.4M – more than $100K over assessed. Seller is probably the spawn of owners who are moving up to the great blue beyond.
Quiet hood though.
3256 22nd Ave W: more activity by the dead or nearly dead. Listed for the better part of a year. Adjacent to a park which some might like – if they don’t mind the endless procession of well-heeled idiots with their dogs. Pink bathroom fixtures. Nice and cheap to scrape.
3,000,000$ is a cheap scrape? I don’t think so. Even converted into a duplex, the rent generated wouldn’t cover the mortgage payments.
749 39th Ave E: one of the most dismal little s…holes ever. The living room photo is a classic to strike terror into the heart – Chester St is aimed right at the window. $1.25M to be terrified.
2018 had slow down in sales in Metro Vancouver Area , lowest sales since 2013 in Fraser Valley and Lowest in Metro Vancouver since 2000 and most of realtors in bc acknowledge this.
“2018 saw the Fraser Valley real estate market returned to more balanced level for both sales and inventory.”
Go fuck yourself you slimy piece of shit.
“[…]slow down in sales in 2018 lowest since 2013 [sic]”
Sales are at an 18-year-low you lying bag of fuck.
Blatant falsehoods like this target the unsophisticated, the uneducated, and the poor.
You have an ethical (if not fiduciary) responsibility to provide sound advice that is in the best interest of your customers and potential customers.
“[…]returned to more balanced level [sic]” does not in any way describe the current state of the market.
How about “horrific bloodbath”, “jaws of a leghold trap snapping shut on a cold winter’s night”, or maybe “worst we have seen it in a generation”.
MOI is skyrocketing and is already the highest it’s been in >5 years.
Prices have fallen double digit percentage points in a matter of months, and properties are languishing on the market year after year despite MULTI-MILLION-DOLLAR price reductions.
Owners are hemorrhaging equity at tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars per MONTH.
Buying has ceased in a way that we haven’t seen since 2001 when the dotcom bubble and 9-11 threatened to destroy the world’s economies.
And you are issuing positive guidance to investors about how this represents balance?
Can you please read what I wrote again and then chime in with your views instead of attacking me personally.
Those ARE my views.
Your guidance to investors is that the market is “balanced”, when actually the market is experiencing the worst conditions in a generation. You are therefore either uninformed or lying or both.
If you were honest, you would write dire warnings about the financial disaster that anyone getting involved is potentially facing right now.
The kind of warnings that most major Canadian newspapers, banks, and investment houses are currently running every week if not every day.
The market is currently wildly volatile and utterly out of “balance”, with almost every indicator pointing towards a looming disaster. Why don’t you write a blog post warning people away?
But of course your business model puts your natural honesty in direct conflict with your bottom line: Because Realtors charge commission, they have chosen to be financially incented to stimulate everyone to buy as much as possible as quickly as possible at all times. (By definition) This remains the case no matter how much misery and suffering that advice may cause their customer base.
The most vulnerable to bad advice are the people who can least afford it: The poor, the uneducated, immigrants, and minorities.
That remains my view.
I just published 2018 Fraser Valley Market Update on https://jashanc21.blogspot.com/2019/01/overview-of-real-estate-in-fraser.html
Jashan Grewal: just another slimy real estate rodent. With just one listing in the wilds of Surrey, he has a lot of time on his hands.
Thanks for chiming in.
This was once an active forum, but since the market began its collapse it has largely fallen silent.
I don’t know you but, unlike Arnie, who is a sociopath, I’ll treat you with basic decency unless you personally attack me first.
Thanks for your lovely comments Arnie, I really appreciate that. I respect your views, everyone has their own opinions.
12283 73 Ave: the wilds of Surrey. Dreadful deformed lot facing entering vehicles in a dead end. Snout house sold in 1986 for $100K. Seller fantasizing about unloading it for close to a mil.
It’s two blocks away from a movie theatre. You can hit hwy 91 quite fast too. I could see this being upzoned.
It has a potential of rezoning but not for now. Can`t predict that it ever will but there are chances.
Thank you for your review, i`ll definitely pass on your review to the home owners who have been living in the house for 31 years.
We’ve got a live one folks.
Is he bored and stressed in the middle of the day due to lack of anything to do? Is he unsure about where his next Chrysler lease payment is coming from?
Whatever the reason, Mr. Grewal has decided that the best way to relieve his tension will be trolling the comment section of a niche bear blog using his real name.
What could go wrong.
Jashan “the Rodent” Grewal thinks posting his website here promotes his pathetic self.
Wrong. There are no little old ladies reading these posts that you can con out of their property.
Team up with mama’s boy Saretsky and chart-making loser Eitel. Call yourselves Three Wankers in a Boat. You’ll have one loyal reader – that ridiculous uber wanker Ninja the Toxic Troll whom, mercifully, I never read. It’s like averting your eyes when there’s a nut on the bus, not that I ever take the bus.
Dude, I live rent-free inside your head.
Because you know I stand firm against your assault on human reasoning and decency.
Speaking of rodents, Kevin “Beady Eyes” O’Leary is coming to town. Imagine what kinds of dildoes would pay to see him.
next step for markets (all) could be epic … https://tinyurl.com/ydgpgzpg
41 40th Ave E: white elephant. Bought 5 years ago for just over a mil. Van Spec Dreck reno painted white and embellished with the usual sheepskin bathroom rugs; cutting glass tables; glazing at the back that has to have been done without a permit; and a weird white stag head. Wtf?
Listed at $2.088M.
Fraser Valley Real Estate Market February 2019