“We want young people to buy Real Estate.” – Vancouver’s Mayor


Saturn devouring his children – Goya

“In a statement released on Friday, Robertson says the proposed policy, which he intends to put in place by the end of the year, will give priority to local residents for sales of new homes in multi-family developments as part of the city’s new 10-year housing strategy. The city defines local residents as people who live and work in Metro Vancouver and whose permanent address and place of work is in the region, regardless of citizenship.

“My priority as mayor is to deliver new housing supply that is first and foremost for people who live and work in Vancouver, and this motion aims to give local residents the first opportunity to purchase a new home,” said Robertson. “In Vancouver’s red-hot housing market, local employers are crunched to retain talent, whether they’re doctors, tech workers, retailers, firefighters, teachers or nurses. I regularly hear stories about people who work in Vancouver, but are forced to move elsewhere in the region because they can’t find a place to live. At a time when we are seeing record levels of housing construction, local residents should be able to get the first shot at purchasing a home in new developments.”

“Vancouver’s Housing Vancouver strategy seeks to dramatically increase the supply of new housing, but it needs to be the right supply — homes that are affordable for people who live and work in Vancouver,” said Robertson. “We want young people and families to put down roots in the city. This motion will support that by helping make sure people who live and work here get the first opportunity to buy into new developments in Vancouver.”

– from ‘Vancouver’s mayor makes move to give locals first crack at condo pre-sales’, Scott Brown, Vancouver Sun 6 Oct 2017

Allowing our young to be first in line to buy preposterously overpriced RE, using large mortgages, will make them miserable, indentured wage slaves for life.
This will not solve Vancouver’s housing challenges, but will further impoverish our social environment.
The only ‘solution’ will be a bursting of the bubble, with a very large price crash, and a flushing out of all speculation in the market.
Such a price correction will return all properties to utility value, which is healthy.
Understandably, such a crash will never be facilitated by any incumbent government, at any level, and of any stripe.
Until then, expect many levels of government to continue to play ‘re-arrange the deckchairs on the Titanic’ with ineffectual policy tweaks (such as the one the mayor describes above).
– vreaa

“Vancouver RE Balloon Pricked; Median Price Detached Home Down >$500,000 to $1.7 million; Prices Need To Be Slashed”

Strong signs are appearing that Metro Vancouver’s real-estate balloon has indeed been pricked by China’s heightened capital controls.
Demand for multi-million dollar dwellings in Metro Vancouver is falling. “All the high-end stuff is sluggish,” says Vancouver realtor-analyst Steve Saretsky.
Sales volumes and prices on detached houses are especially dropping on the west side of Vancouver, in Richmond and in West Vancouver, where Mainland Chinese buyers had been active buying and building mansions.
Real Estate Association of Greater Vancouver figures show the median price of a detached home is down more than $500,000 since February, to $1.7 million.
Veteran Canadian real-estate data analyst Stephen Punwasi also has little doubt “Chinese capital is having a tougher time getting out of China” since leaders introduced tighter controls in January.
“Vancouver locals selling $3 million bungalows are going to have trouble finding an alternative to foreign urban land buyers, so prices need to be slashed,” Punwasi said.

– from ‘Is China bursting Vancouver’s housing bubble?’, Douglas Todd, 6 Oct 2017 [hat-tip to ‘The (indefatigable) Auteur’]

Pretty strong stuff for the Vancouver Sun.
This must give speculators (all buyers) pause.
23% down in 6 months? Gee.
Will anybody buy at these prices if they anticipate/fear future flat or decreased prices? We’d guess not, but we’ll have to wait and see how many “bargain hunters” step up to “buy the dip”.
Please see the last post for our discussion of why this is arguably an important juncture.
– vreaa

PS and BTW: The Auteur also kindly referenced a G&M article on how the BC NDP has essentially been petrified when it comes to promised housing action; in this regard we’d say this: No government can legislate or plan BC out of a gigantic speculative bubble in housing prices. There is no way to do that. Prices have become way too far removed from those determined by simple utility. The only way out is by a price crash (with no bailouts or any other silliness). That will solve the problem for a generation.

Detached Price Trend Remains Up, For Now. Speculators Hold Their Breath?

“Detached homes made up 30 per cent of all sales in September and represented 62 per cent [5,869] of all the homes listed for sale on the MLS® [9,466]. This dynamic has slowed the pace of upward pressure that we’ve seen on detached home prices in our market over the last few years.”
The sales-to-active listings ratio for September 2017 for detached homes is 14.6 per cent …
The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,617,300. This represents a 2.9 per cent increase from September 2016.

– from the REBGV Sept 2017 stats package

“Average prices in British Columbia are forecast to grow 2.2 per cent this year and remain unchanged in 2018, CREA said.”
– from ‘CREA cuts 2017/2018 outlook for home sales in Canada’, G&M, 15 Sep 2017

To reiterate, from our last post:
In a market that has come to expect 7% growth p.a. (with peaks to 25% p.a. being seen as normal) a substantial period of flat price growth will feel odd; almost like a contraction.
The eternal question for Vancouver RE is: “Will people be willing to step up and buy if prices are not rising?”
This is the essence of our longstanding belief that “all buyers are speculators” — we believe that people buy at these price levels not for utility, but largely for anticipated price growth. We believe they certainly would not be buying without anticipated price growth.

So, what will happen to Vancouver RE prices if prices stop rising? What happens if the speculative component of buying disappears?
We believe that this will result in prices dropping to a level that reflects the value of the utility of the property, and that currently such values are far, far below asking prices.

It’s too early to say, but it does seem that prices in some sectors of the market have stagnated.
Talk at the corner of Rumour & Grapevine is of $3M, $4M, $4M+ – ask-price homes getting no interest whatsoever, and being removed from market. Also of condos over $1M getting little interest. If the supply of eager buyers is limitless, why is this happening?
Perhaps that house isn’t ‘worth’ $4.5M if there is no longer a chance of it being ‘worth’ $5.5M next year. Perhaps its actually ‘worth’ closer to $1.5M (a price that would already value it richly for its actual utility), or even (preposterously!) $1M if we consider local incomes and historic norms. [This argument can be scaled for all levels of the market].

– vreaa

“Am I Buying This Home To Use It, Or For Anticipated Price Growth?”


Gambling chit or home?

“Average prices in British Columbia are forecast to grow 2.2 per cent this year and remain unchanged in 2018, CREA said.”
– from ‘CREA cuts 2017/2018 outlook for home sales in Canada’, G&M, 15 Sep 2017

“Paradise, meet purgatory: Average Metro earner reaps $72,000 a year, pays $1.4 million for a home”
headline from The Province, 14 Sep 2017 [hat-tip to brian]

In a market that has come to expect 7% growth p.a. (with peaks to 25% p.a. being seen as normal) a substantial period of flat price growth will feel odd; almost like a contraction.
The eternal question for Vancouver RE is: “Will people be willing to step up and buy if prices are not rising?”
This is the essence of our longstanding belief that “all buyers are speculators” — we believe that people buy at these price levels not for utility, but largely for anticipated price growth. We believe they certainly would not be buying without anticipated price growth.

So, what will happen to Vancouver RE prices if prices stop rising? What happens if the speculative component of buying disappears?
We believe that this will result in prices dropping to a level that reflects the value of the utility of the property, and that currently such values are far, far below asking prices.

It’s too early to say, but it does seem that prices in some sectors of the market have stagnated.
Talk at the corner of Rumour & Grapevine is of $3M, $4M, $4M+ – ask-price homes getting no interest whatsoever, and being removed from market. Also of condos over $1M getting little interest. If the supply of eager buyers is limitless, why is this happening?
Perhaps that house isn’t ‘worth’ $4.5M if there is no longer a chance of it being ‘worth’ $5.5M next year. Perhaps its actually ‘worth’ closer to $1.5M (a price that would already value it richly for its actual utility), or even (preposterously!) $1M if we consider local incomes and historic norms. [This argument can be scaled for all levels of the market].

– vreaa

Postscript anecdote:
“I’ve started my active research in the detached market in my area. Inquired today about a detached 3br house in Langley (BC) nice neighbourhood, south-facing yard. Last Saturday we missed the open house, so I called the following Wednesday and inquired if they had taken any offers. “They listed after the long weekend and were going to take offers on the Tuesday but received no offers.” To which I replied “So do you think we could offer below asking, if we were interested?” He replied “Oh yea, definitely.”
– from PupPatrol 09.15.17 at 6:04 pm at greaterfool.com

“I’d been brainwashed by this market into thinking that paying for a million-dollar home means getting a total dump” … “When housing is so unaffordable that you drive out people who hold up the fabric of society, what’s going to happen?”


“Vancouver has become a hotel.” – Bing Thom, architect

“A family from England’s Midlands region arrived in Vancouver last July. The professional couple came here for work and set about looking for a house to purchase for their family of four.
After viewing a series of overpriced properties on the city’s east side, they plan to give it three more months. If they still can’t find anything, they consider Ontario.
K. Singh says her family lived well in England; both she and her husband make white-collar salaries. But in Vancouver, they have had to adjust their standard of living. Another family – friends of theirs who moved from England at the same time – have already returned.
“I had heard rumours. I wasn’t entirely surprised, but I was taken aback by the intensity of the situation, really,” Ms. Singh says. “I didn’t think it would be this bad. Some of our friends decided to go to Australia and they didn’t have the same battle.
“We are ordinary working people. All our taxes are paid – all kosher. When you do that, you don’t usually have a huge amount of money to begin with. We suffered a hit because of Brexit and the pound fell drastically.
“I worry about where society is going, because when it gets to that level [of unaffordability] and you drive out the people who hold up the fabric of society, what’s going to happen?”.

Ms. Singh says her family is too large for a condo and she has friends and family that want to visit from England, so she needs a house, but nothing fancy. She doesn’t think that’s a tall order.
“You’ve got two sets of people in this world,” she says. “There are the people who want to get what they can for themselves – nothing will ever be enough for them.
“I fall into the second bracket: you just want to pay the bills, have a bit for a rainy day, live comfortably with family, and have friends and family to come and stay.
“That’s not too much to ask, is it?”

Daina Lawrence found an east-side house for her young family after eight weeks of searching.
“After we went through the process, I realized that I’d been sort of brainwashed by this market into thinking that paying for a million-dollar home means getting a total dump,” Ms. Lawrence says. “I came to think of that as normal – which is brutal in hindsight.”

– two anecdotes from ‘Mouldy mini-mansions, pricey average homes: Vancouver house hunting is a wild ride’, Kery Gold, G&M, 25 Aug 2017 [hat-tip The Auteur]

Stoking The Housing Boom – “B.C. should close the bare-trust loophole for owning properties. Former Liberal finance minister Mike de Jong promised to get rid of it, but he reneged.”


The phenomenal popularity of Canada’s new 10-year visas is a key factor behind the latest housing booms in Vancouver and Toronto, say immigration specialists.
“I often travel to China, where I see the great pride many take in investing their money in Canada” —­ particularly by taking advantage of 10-year visas to buy real estate, said George Lee, a Burnaby immigration lawyer.
In 2015, Canadian immigration officials issued 390,000 10-year, multiple-entry visas to residents of Mainland China, the largest cohort, with another 162,000 going to people from India.
The former Conservative government began offering the 10-year visas in February 2014. As a result, in that first year, the number of travel visas handed to Chinese nationals tripled to 337,000.
Lee says the visas, which allow people to travel freely to Canada each year and stay for at least six months at a time, have sparked an explosion in foreign travel and property speculation in Canada, particularly from China.
The multiple-entry visas have caused a migration “chain reaction,” Lee said, which often leads to international students becoming proxies for offshore real-estate investors.

Hyman is particularly concerned about how a diverse range of real-estate speculators in B.C. use various means to obscure the legal ownership of property.
A multiple-entry visa offers “many people exactly what they want,” said Hyman.
“They want to be seen as tourists. They want to be off the radar of the Canada Revenue Agency,” including by being able to claim they’re not residents of Canada for income tax purposes.
The multiple-entry visa gives wealthy foreign nationals increasing opportunities to use their low-income-earning offspring and others as proxies, sometimes called “nominees,” to buy Canadian property on their behalf, according to Lee and Hyman.
Many wealthy foreign nationals employ their international-student children as channels for investing in real estate, they say, noting there are 130,000 foreign students in B.C., 51,000 of whom are from Mainland China.
“Some people are transferring their wealth to their dependents and then relinquishing their permanent resident status in Canada. They’re applying instead for 10-year visitors’ visas,” Hyman said.
He is particularly aware of foreign nationals, as well as domestic Canadians, using “bare trusts” and other loopholes to purchase properties and avoid paying taxes in B.C.
His worries echo a Transparency International report that says stronger tax enforcement is desperately needed in Canada and especially for Metro Vancouver, where governments can’t identify the owners of almost half the region’s 100 most valuable homes.
“B.C. is losing tens of billions of dollars in unpaid taxes related to property,” said Hyman.
Too many dubious ways exist — the immigration lawyer said — for real estate investors to obscure their identities and avoid paying Canadian income taxes, B.C.’s 15-per cent foreign buyers tax, B.C.’s property transfer tax or capital gains tax on real-estate profits.
To combat exploitation of Metro Vancouver’s housing market, Hyman said, one of the first things the new NDP government of B.C. should do is close the bare-trust loophole for owning properties.
Former B.C. Liberal finance minister Mike de Jong promised in October, 2015, to get rid of the loophole, said Hymen, but he reneged.
The Ontario government is far ahead of B.C. on this regulation, Hyman said. It closed the loophole in 1983.

– from ‘New 10-year visas stoke housing booms in Vancouver and Toronto’, Douglas Todd, Vancouver Sun, 6 Aug 2017

Housing accounted for the bulk of Canada’s economic growth last year. Brace for the end of the boom.

“Canada’s long housing boom has drawn thousands into the sector, from realtors and home stagers to construction workers, and a looming slowdown threatens to trigger an exodus that could wipe out many of those jobs and force the economy to shift down.

While housing has long been the main engine of Canadian growth, economists say a drop in home sales has already started to weigh on the economy and if price declines follow, consumer spending and jobs will suffer.

“To a lot of people, it is a get-rich-quick scheme,” Toronto realtor David Fleming said about the real estate market. “But history shows when the market turns, half of the agents leave.”

Realtors’ ranks in Canada’s largest city and hottest housing market have surged 77 percent since 2008 to more than 48,000 – nearly 10 times the pace of Canadian job growth. Nationwide, that number has risen 26.9 percent.

By comparison, there are over 13,500 realtors in Chicago, according to the Chicago Association of Realtors.

With Canadian home construction jobs rising at nearly the same pace as real estate jobs, housing has become the top driver of employment and economic growth, accounting for the bulk of Canada’s economic growth last year.

As the nearly one million housing sector jobs now far outstrip those in oil and gas extraction and mining combined and approach the size of the manufacturing sector, economists brace for a painful reckoning if the housing slowdown turns into a long correction.

More than half of the analysts polled by Reuters in May said a sharp housing correction was somewhat or very likely in Toronto and Vancouver, but unlikely nationally.

Recent data showed nation-wide home resales fell 6.7 percent in June, the largest monthly drop since 2010 and the third straight monthly decline as sales in Toronto tumbled, and sales are expected to slow further as interest rates rise.

While most housing bears have been focusing on how much home prices could drop, economists are also trying to work out how badly a resulting decline in consumer spending and housing jobs could hurt the broad economy. …

Veteran realtors who have seen the industry swell with inexperienced agents have no doubts that a slowdown will decimate their ranks.

“It is definitely overpopulated,” said Shawn Zigelstein, a realtor in the York Region, north of Toronto. “A downturn will weed out of some of those agents who got into the business for the wrong reasons.”

Already, many realtors are struggling in the crowded market. Nearly half of Toronto’s licensed realtors did fewer than two deals last year, according to Brian Torry, general manager at Bosley Real Estate in Toronto. Less than a third did five or more transactions.

“It is a tough industry to break into,” said Jared Gardner, 38, who got his real estate license last year and works in the Toronto area.

Fleming believes many agents are already making less than minimum wage once license, membership and brokerage fees are paid, and it can only get tougher if sales continue to dry up.”

– from ‘In Canada, a nation of realtors braces for the end of the boom’, Reuters, 1 Aug 2017

Mispricing of risk (too cheap money) has caused severe misallocation of resources, with speculators chasing hot sectors and being rewarded for risky behaviour. This has resulted in a ballooning of RE and related activities. Our economy has become overdependent on a concentration of activity, in an unsustainable fashion.
This phenomenon has been clear to some people for many years, yet it has been allowed to continue, encouraged even, because those with any control over monetary policy, the importing of money, or mortgage rates suffer conflicts of interest. The herd has been encouraged to run faster and faster, in one direction, and the imbalance has become more and more extreme.
This will all end. Laws of physics apply here as much as laws of economics – Canada can’t become a giant perpetual motion machine, with most of us doing nothing but selling houses to each other. Once the superficially ‘virtuous’ cycle, fueled by speculation, turns in the opposite direction, and becomes ‘vicious’, this sector collapse, and there will be all sorts of knock-on effects.
There will be great damage, but there will be good consequences, too:
The seemingly intractable housing ‘crisis’, that we now hear about constantly, will greatly benefit from a crash in prices. Housing that is priced close to those prices determined by fundamentals (the actual utility of the property) is healthy for an economy and a society.
– vreaa