Like this poster, we probably would have shorted Vancouver RE some time ago, if that was readily possible. Lucky for all the bears, it wasn’t. -vreaa
“I am one of the rare people for whom a sharp market correction will be a double edged sword. I have had a liquid financial position for several years, waiting for prices to make some type of sense to me. On the other hand, I have no delusions and know for certain that the irrational market such as exists currently in Vancouver and surrounding areas has positively impacted on my personal income. I am man enough to say that if Vancouver real estate was a financial instrument I could have bet against, I would be absolutely busted out, bankrupt and finished by now. Prices stopped making sense to me over 5 years ago. I analyze real estate for a living.. imagine how it feels for me to have been telling people “bad idea” in 2005/2006 given what the market has done since then.
Perception becomes reality and the current perception still has an irrationally positive outlook. So although I believe that prices must eventually trend lower so that some semblance of a logical relationship between rents and incomes is re-established, I would not be surprised if it took longer than what many are predicting. What will really be interesting is when the popular consensus shifts from the current paper gain induced euphoric mania nurtured by every real estate pimp to a more realistic perspective. Something along the lines of “holy fuck I owe the bank 650k and the house across the street just sold for 500k”. That is when I will be throwing my parties…. because I am sick like that. Listings are great but foreclosures, insolvency, and the complete financial ruination of “investors” are what will have me partying like there is no tomorrow.”