Monthly Archives: December 2016

CTV Headline: ‘All hell is going to break loose in Vancouver’: Ex-trader’s real estate forecast

“A man who made millions as a short seller on Wall Street by betting against the odds has turned his sights from the U.S. economy to Vancouver real estate.
Former trader Marc Cohodes spent decades betting against housing “bubbles” before they burst. Now he has his eye, and his money, on the local housing market, and he has a warning to homeowners and first-time buyers.
“It’s going to blow to complete and utter smithereens,” Cohodes predicts.
“I think the market probably topped in the spring of ’16 and I think all hell is going to break loose in Vancouver in 2017.”
Cohodes is so confident in his prediction that he’s betting against one of Canada’s biggest alternative mortgage lenders, forecasting a housing crash similar to the one south of the border in 2008.
“I witnessed some of the U.S. housing fiasco here, and I said to myself, if I ever see it again, I should speak out louder than I did,” he told CTV’s Sarah MacDonald.
So this time he’s speaking out, and his predictions are drastic.
Cohodes, who is now retired from trading, predicts that all of Metro Vancouver’s multimillion-dollar homes will see their value plummet by as much as 50 to 80 per cent.”

CTV News, 30 Dec 2016

This happens regularly — Somebody from ‘the outside’, with knowledge of markets, takes a look at Vancouver RE and sees how much of a bubble it is… they rant about it for an article or two… then nothing proceeds to change. Robert Shiller called Vancouver the ‘bubbliest city’, what?.. 10 years ago? And we’ve regularly seen traders like Cohodes try to find ways to short our RE.
One of these days, one of these guys is going to get the timing right.
[Implied comment/joke about the challenges of timing markets intended].

RE matters aside, have a really good 2017, everybody. – vreaa

Vancouver Sun Headline: “Vancouver real estate prices face double-digit drop in 2017: LePage”

“The forecast for a double-digit price drop in Vancouver’s housing market makes for a nice or nasty surprise for 2017, depending on where you are on the property ladder, but experts say it still won’t make the city affordable.
Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper said prices are headed for double-digit decline in 2017 as buyers drop out of the market.
“Home prices had got so out of whack with the growth in underlying wages and salaries that there had to be a correction,” said Soper. “And it’ll happen in 2017.”

– ‘above the fold’ front page headline in The Vancouver Sun, 22 Dec 2016

A realtor citing fundamentals. Times are indeed changing. – vreaa

CTV Vancouver Uses ‘Prices Plunging’ In News Headline

Sober hosts

Listing prices for detached homes appear to be falling as Vancouver’s real estate market faces what an expert calls “significant headwinds.”
Data released Friday showed that those looking to buy a single family detached home in the city last month forked over about $1.5 million in Metro Vancouver, but recent listings suggest that the benchmark is falling.
CTV News found a number of East Vancouver homes priced under then $1 million mark during a search of MLS listings on Monday, including one that sold for $560,000 below the initial asking price.
That home, located in Renfrew Heights, was initially listed at $1.36 million in August, but sold for $800,000 in mid-November.
Sutton West Coast realtor David Hutchinson has been tracking plunging prices and found several detached homes listed below $1 million, some of which had been recently renovated.
“If you want to sell, you have to be priced sharply, and you see a lot of price drops,” Hutchinson told CTV.

– from ‘Prices plunging: Houses selling well below asking, some under $1M’, Penny Daflos, 5 Dec 2016

Sales have slowed and prices are beginning to soften. Fundamentals remain shockingly poor, and there are ‘headwinds’ like rising mortgage rates and financing restrictions. 2017 will tell whether this is the beginning of the crash we’ve expected for years. – vreaa