“It was more fun as a contrarian fighting a uphill battle in early 2011”; “I don’t even talk about housing anymore with the friends that have bought”; “Where have all the Bulls gone?”

“I don’t even talk about housing anymore with some friends. These are the friends that have bought 800k to 1 million dollar homes and are in their early thirties. Being close friends, it is disconcerting how badly they will be hurt when this bubble falls apart. So I don’t talk about it. Tried to warn them though.”
900kCrackHouse at VCI 1 Aug 2012 10:45am

“For me, it’s boring to the point where I don’t feel very motivated to post. As I said a few days ago, it was more fun as a contrarian fighting a uphill battle in early 2011. Now even the bulls are adapting their stance to “we all know it’s falling, but I guarantee it won’t fall too much for too long, sellers should wait it out” (Their stance used to be “UPUPUP to the Moon!” lol)
I used to get a good share of jeers and typical bullish trash talk, but since a few months ago the resistance almost completely stopped.
It’s not that fun for a bloodthirsty warrior to walk onto the battlefield finding most of the enemies already deserted or defected.”

VMD at VCI 1 Aug 2012 11:11am

“It all seems so easy. We are no longer fighting a rear guard action in Dunkirk we are 200 miles from Berlin with no Germans in sight.
Where have all the Bulls gone? I guess they are finally realizing that we can be wrong for a very long time but we only need to be right once.”

McLovin at VCI 1 Aug 2012 9:06pm

We’ve also noticed the sudden silence of the bulls.
It can only mean that they are experiencing various aspects of the slowing.
– vreaa

22 responses to ““It was more fun as a contrarian fighting a uphill battle in early 2011”; “I don’t even talk about housing anymore with the friends that have bought”; “Where have all the Bulls gone?”

  1. Renters Revenge

    “Silence of the Bulls”
    Sound like it should be a movie.

  2. Speaking of which–F1, come out, come out wherever you are! Have you revised your prediction that detached housing would never fall by more than 15%?

  3. I’m still alive; but why?

  4. Craig Sterling

    I hate to be Cassandra from Europe, but on my usual tip: if the YVR crash is anything like US/UK, expect this current very rapid decline to mitigate before/by years’ end, with a possible “dead cat bounce” in Jan/Feb – then the real fun starts – a long, slow stewing decline which, in the case of the UK, has now been going on for four years. Look for SFHs to be 10-15% below their current levels in two years’ time (ie 30-35% off in total), maybe? Let’s see!

    • I’m putting my bets on a dead cat bounce and a long slow decline as well. Too many people bought in to the BPOE mentality. Additionally because most displayed fiscal imprudence on the way up, I’m expecting the same on the way down. The markets have lost all sanity and I don’t expect them to regain sobriety for a long time to come. A lot of people just not selling because they feel that they deserve more for their (once) grossly overvalued house even though they’re bleeding money out all over the street. I’m expecting to see a slow slide to prices about 30% off of peak over the next five years (not adjusting for inflation) which brings the correction in to the expected (30-50%) off peak range inflation adjusted for that most people are predicting. That said, interest rates rising even 0.75% or a few bad years of economy in India and China may mean that all this will be catalysed.

      Even though I have zero invested directly in the real estate industry, if we were to see a 30% or more price correction over the next six to twelve months, the economy would essentially grind to a halt in many parts of Canada and we’d be all in trouble no matter how diversified our portfolios are. As much as I’ve got a huge amount of Schadenfreude on tap for the speculators in Vancouver (which is essentially everyone who bought real estate in the past half decade) I’m hoping the effects of the correction are titrated.

    • Based on my experience as a professional investor who anticipated the 2007 crisis and did well in that year and 2008 when my peers all bombed, I can tell you in advance that very few will acknowledge or respect you for being right about bubbles. They will just hate you.

  5. Looks like vci got hacked by some angry realtors/developers…

  6. My wife’s BIL is a realtor. Last year he said prices will likely not decline. Now he said that condos are going to take a beating while sfh will decline slightly. He said, “van west sales has tanked but prices are only down 15%.” I get the impression that he doesn’t see an implosion in the sfh market. Funny that he can say that about condos though.

    • “My wife’s BIL is a realtor”
      Your bro’s a Realtor? 🙂
      It’s hard to remove one’s biases and look objectively!

    • pricedoutfornow

      This sounds all too familiar to what happened in the US. People first started out saying “prices will NEVER decline!” then “prices will only decline a little!” then “the market will recover soon!” and then…after it was obvious to all that this was a mega-crash, there was nothing left to say and every just stayed home and cried in their beers.
      I can see we’re on our way.

  7. Speaking of ‘uphill battles’ and ‘pyramid schemes’….

    [ChinaDaily] – Pyramid scheme hits the homeless

    …”Zhou’s way of life is now under threat. The local authorities have embedded cement pyramids in the concrete below the overpass, making it impossible for the homeless to sleep there. The move is part of the city’s plans to drive all the homeless from its cities by the end of the year, according to the local TV station. At first, Zhou didn’t go home because he felt it shameful to return without having saved a decent amount of money. He gradually got used to being a tramp. “I can’t go back now,” he said.”…


  8. the former bulls are experiencing grief. Since the RE consciousness top is June, June is given to ‘Denial’, July to ‘Anger’, August (where we are now) to ‘Bargaining’, September ‘Depression’ and October ‘Acceptance’.

  9. @ Paul

    I think the bulls are still in shock. The denial may be setting in for some. But we are a long, long way from their completing their grieving process. Most boomers who are not close to the market may not yet even be in shock.

    • My view, HAM, FWIW, I think the possibility of a prolonged bear market has not yet seriously entered the realm of discussion. It will need to be several quarters, perhaps a couple of years, of lacklustre incomes and prospects for a paradigm shift to occur. I think that’s a way’s off, if it is ever to occur, and the supposed resiliency that occurred after the 2008 BC housing recession will require more than a year’s hardship to break resolve.

      Not saying this will happen, but if the US is any gauge, it will take longer than a single rotation around the sun to knock the stuffing out of a decade of above-average returns.

      PS YVRHousing is “jesse” who is using a twitter handle.

      • Ham, obviously, YVR wants you to visit his site so that he can explain his RE correlations are the best on the web.

      • Another person is using the handle “jesse” so I decided to make my handle unique to avoid confusion for this other person.

        You are more than able and welcome to include your website in the “website” box when you fill out a comment on this blog.

  10. people are on vacation … but maybe it’s time for home_equity man to make an appearance … http://tinyurl.com/pf33s

  11. I have two friends in bad shape because they have estranged spouses are living in houses that are depreciating by the day and neither can get them to sell quick. As if the loss of their marriage isn’t painful enough, now they are going to watch hundreds of thousands of dollars in equity go with it. And that takes all the fun out of talking about the crash.

  12. Been watching this listing with trepidation: http://www.dcmarketingstrategies.ca/ActiveListings.php/Details/68#viewdetail

    The pricing is ridiculous– even for Vancouver– so we shall see how it goes. It’s been hanging around for a couple of months now…

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