Toronto home prices soar (but they ‘won the lottery’ in Vancouver) – The Globe and Mail

“The benchmark price for all types of properties in the Vancouver area now stands at $700,500, up 11.2 per cent from a year earlier.”
– 6 Aug 2015 Toronto home prices soar (but they ‘won the lottery’ in Vancouver) – The Globe and Mail.

Calling Stephen Hawking! A new Space-Time-Price Continuum has been unveiled…!!
..in an environment with ‘no inflation’ and rock-bottom ’emergency’ interest rates (now in year 7+), another double-digit annual increase…
– ed.

36 responses to “Toronto home prices soar (but they ‘won the lottery’ in Vancouver) – The Globe and Mail

  1. This is no surprise really, but I wonder why they focus so much on detached houses as if people have a natural right to them. I think it’s time Vancouverites get it through their heads that detached houses are now considered a luxury and consider attached housing a normal way to live like most other big cities in the world. The market has dictated this, asian buyers, whether local or international, are soaking up supply and aren’t releasing them back into the market fast enough. The supply pool consists of mostly locals downsizing. But this supply is not infinite as asians generally pass the house on rather than downsize. I would be curious to see a demographic analysis of single family ownership over the last 20 years. I bet you would see a gigantic shift toward asian ownership in the detached market.

    • You are lucky you are commenting on VREAA. This kind of comments on VCI would get you killed by team BPOM there.

      As for Asian’s tendency to buy RE and pass it down, I think that really only applies to immigrants and maybe 1st and 2nd gen. By the time you get to 3rd gen, they are bananas and coconuts through and through. They have absolutely nothing in common with their ancestors/grandparents.

      • Bit of ignorance here on my part, but what is VCI and what is BPOM? I really don’t care if I get killed, I think my logic flies anywhere. You get killed when you lose money, not because someone who can’t even afford a place calls you a moron. I would much rather everyone think I am stupid and make money than everyone think I am smart and lose money. So far so good for me. I disagree with your point about the asian generation thing, but really, neither of us have hard data to prove our points so I won’t argue. Also, there is mass asian immigration from both the investor and the skilled class of immigrants, so whatever effect their third generation has is too far to be of concern to me. I am only projecting out the next few years.

    • What do you consider a “big city”? The population of the Vancouver metro is similar to Pittsburgh and Portland. The people in those cities don’t consider a detached home a luxury.

      • Portland and Pittsburgh didn’t let in 45000 millionaire migrants from China. Gurantee you if that did happen to Portland its single family home prices would go through the roof. We had more investor immigration from China over the last ten years than pretty much the entire US. That would do wonders to your housing prices.

      • Americans aren’t as passive as Canadians, and I don’t think the leaders of those other two places are as corrupt or ego driven as Krusty and Moonbeam. Vancouver is one of the few places in the world where things could get this bad.

      • Leaving soon

        Brian’s right here. 45 000 millionaires with a tendency to use real estate as a major investment tool _are_ the reason the usual 20-30% premium that living in Vancouver used to add compared to other large cities in the rest of the country has increased to 100-200%. The whole country has been in what looks like a real estate bubble, Vancouver just has some sort of scaling factor added to it.

  2. Brian says: “Chinese immigration is massive”. Interested parties, please refer to the statistics published a few posts ago, which show a consistent decline in Chinese immigration over the past ten years. Willful blindness at its best.

    • Thought you weren’t going to respond to me anymore. Btw, interested parties, while you are at it, why go back a few posts, go back six years and note the predictions of doom from this blog That’s some sage advice truly. Hope no one followed it.

  3. i you own a 10 billion dollar house, don’t you need to sell it to collect the lottery winnings

    • You mean if I own a 10 billion dollar house, sure. But that’s true of anything, stocks, bonds, gold, etc. You are assuming that everyone will dump at once which rarely happens to any assets. I never said Vancouver real estate will go up forever non-stop, but for the asian buyers to stop investing in it, it has to feel more expensive than Beijing or Shanghai. Recently I had a friend look at a single family home in Vancouver, friend is from Beijing, first response was, how much is this in RMB. Second response was, that’s it? Obviously when you compare our land with their apartments, it feels dramatically undervalued. When our homes hit 10 billion I am sure it won’t be. There is a saying that Vancouver is the nicest city in China. To some chinese who visit here, that holds true.

      • Enjoy your Chinese city for the rich. Some of us have better options.

      • Look, if you are a local and have options to move, you really should move. To be honest even I have debated whether I want to head down to San Fran or not, but that is irrelevent to the discussion of whether real estate prices will rise. I see this as a purely economic debate. The prices here do not justify the quality of life for locals. For immigrants the options aren’t as plentiful so they are more or less stuck here. That is the truth of it. I don’t like it anymore than any of you, but that doesn’t mean that I don’t see the prices rising.

      • Over the short term, I agree that prices will continue to rise. But over the longer term, I expect the Chinese Great Depression to kick in at some point. I wouldn’t want to have just bought a Vancouver SFH when that happens, there certainly won’t be anybody left who can afford these prices.

        And if the communists are somehow able to keep things going for another decade, I expect some civil unrest here in Vancouver. If our politicians continue to do nothing about this major problem, things could get ugly.

  4. do you know any local Chinese who are getting sick of Vancouver,
    and moving away for job reasons, or just the boringness of vancouver

    i know Chinese in their 20’s, 30’s who can’t wait to get out

    • Yep, many. But their parents are here so some of them will stay. Also, some of them want an Asian city so their options are limited. For me, I would consider San Fran but pretty much everywhere else is a big no. Family is very important in the Asian culture, some of us will sacrifice a lot to be with family, this include careers. In reality, Vancouver needs immigration to maintain its growth. We just happen to get a lot. Our skilled immigrants are also quite wealthy and they drive the market also.

      • I’m getting real tired of the “family is very important in the Asian culture” meme…guess what, family is very important in almost ALL cultures. Why do you think young people are so angry that they cannot afford a house in the city they grew up in, and they are often forced to move away from the very important friends and family they love. Ridiculousness.

      • Sure, I don’t dispute that. But hence the answer to Teds question. Many stay because of family. The thing that I will add is that the Chinese family is not financially independent. Parents and kids finances are intertwined. So that increases their purchasing power. Although these days the locals seem to be catching on, we are seeing big, in the tune of 500k down payment gifts from parents to kids out of local families.

  5. Brian’s argument is bigoted. It boils down to: foreigners are dumb when it comes to money. On one hand he concedes that prices are not sensible—but only for locals. For Asians there is no limit to what will be paid. To them, cost is irrelevant; family and culture are their only concerns.

    • Actually if that’s what you got then you missed the mark. What I am saying is that there is very few alternatives. Again you fail to understand why they come here in the first place. Just do this simple test, take all the cities in the world that speak Mandarin, and look at their real estate prices, I think you would find that in reality, Vancouver is one of the cheapest in any ratio you use. Why, because they are all expensive. So they are not dumb, this is their criteria. Get it now? Also, if every city’s real estate needs to be sensible to local incomes how does Monaco work?

  6. do these rich Chinese think Vancouver offers their children career opportunity, or is the plan to go back to China and get a real job

    • I don’t think career is relevant when they are just taking over their family business. Many rich Chinese require a second home in the western world to stash money and send their family away. No business is completely clean in China, bribery is part of the game. They need a way to move money out with their families away from the governments reach. I believe rich Russians do this too. But I think the Chinese do this in a much larger scale. When the kid is educated they could go back to take over the business but they will always maintain a second home somewhere in case of storm. Vancouver is a great place for this purpose and that is what you are seeing.

  7. Meh, leave Vancouver to the Chinese then let the rest of Canada revolt and kick their sorry asses out in 50 years. I don’t care, I’ll be dead.

  8. I have spoken to people from China who have moved here, and their reasoning is completely logical. I ask them why they come here, and they say you can breathe the air, drink the water, eat the food and speak freely.

    We don’t spend a second worrying about the first three things, but China’s cities are heavily polluted and even the locals can’t trust the food and water. Who wouldn’t want to move to one of the cleanest cities in the world? We grew up here and we don’t place any value on something we have grown up with our entire lives, because we don’t have a comparison with a place that has real problems in these areas.

    As for Vancouver as a place to live, the well less than a million people who live in the city proper, are here for the lifestyle Vancouver offers. Not the best job opportunities in the world, or best art gallery. Vancouver has tons to offer in terms of lifestyle if you like what’s on offer, and plenty of people absolutely love it here.

    Finally, in all the analysis about demand, about 50% of Vancouverites own homes vs. 70% in Canada as a country. Plenty of potential demand there.

  9. breathe air, drink water, eat food!!!!!
    where else in the world could one do those things,

    and what is the Vancouver lifestyle ?

    • Speak Mandarin? Where else can you go to a western city and get away without speaking much English. Mandarin to Vancouver is Spanish to New York. Add that to your filter and your list gets small real quick.

      • Leaving soon

        Good Point.

        Call me a racist if you want, but the city I’m moving to next was chosen in part because it had a very small Chinese population while still being multicultural and having good career opportunities in my field.

      • I don’t think you are racist at all. In reality, many chinese people in Vancouver are looking out to the suburbs like Coquitlam because the schools there are more multicultural. This would definitely factor into our next purchase, although I would be looking at the westside for multicultural neighbourhoods. We don’t want to send our kids to a school that is 80% chinese.

    • If you believe that significant numbers of people want to move to Canada in the first place, we have a very small population. Attractive because well, we’re not the U.S. or Europe. We are perceived to be safer than major U.S. cities, with newer infrastructure and better education. We’re physically close to China, with the best climate, (not the best weather) of any major Canadian city.
      Vancouver lifestyle is enjoying the amazing natural beauty, world class golf and skiing close by, interesting neighbourhoods like the Drive and a packed calendar of festivals and events celebrating culture and our diversity for little or no cost. Car free day, fireworks, ethnic themed celebrations and film festivals of every description. If you can’t find things to do, you’re boring.

      BTW, not a realtor. A retailer.

      • I think Keith’s comments here are mostly correct. We are the most livable city in the world for a reason, there is a lot of natural beauty here that you can’t get anywhere else. It is indeed true that Asian people perceive Vancouver to be much safer than major US cities. It’s not based on statistics, just the fact that you can’t buy a firearm in a department store is good enough. We have a very asian friendly population unlike other places like Australia. Most importantly, there are not many asian friendly cities in the western world, we are still very cheap compared to the other places. Add to the fact that it took Canada more than a decade to extradite one of the best known fugitives in China that had a mountain of evidence against him, you are relatively safe here. It’s pretty much a no brainer that they would want to invest and live here.

  10. most livable city in the world but 46th most livable city in Canada, says MoneySense, WestVan was 9th best in Canada though.
    world class golf really???? i guess if you like golfing in the ice cold rain 8 months a year and very short daylight hours…beats San Diego doesn’t it.

    vancouver has no interesting neighborhoods, anybody who’s been to a real city will know this , Commercial was decent 15 years ago , now its just filled with shallow snobs, i lived there for 30 years , its very lame now, all the friendly interesting people are gone replaced with RE obsessed misers

    after living in the US you realize vancouver has little diversity, there’s no Black or Latino community , these demographics are much more friendly and fun than vancouver’s Asian demographic , festivals in vancouver are boring by American or European standards

    Vancouver remains a sleepy little hockey town, not much of an economy or things to do, i’m sure there’s some good things about Vancouver, it was ok in the 80’s and 90’s, now its lameville

    • I actually agree with Ted, I have been to many cities around the US and would find Vancouver quite boring when compared to say a New York or San Fran. But unfortunately for Ted, your latino and black communities aren’t the ones that are coming here. It is asians who are immigrating here and they like a place where there are many other asian people. So… unfortunately, it is what it is. But I don’t think this discussion has anything to do with how a local person feels about Vancouver, it is about what is going to happen to our real estate. As long as you get abundance of asian immigration, which Ted concurs has happened and is happening, you are going to end up with high real estate prices. Look at it this way, back 30 years ago, this city is less than 10% asian, now it is almost 50, see a trend? Is it good? Probably not, but there isn’t much that can be done about it without getting racist.

  11. Cities aren’t boring or lame, people are.

    • whipmaster~kerthwhack!

      Keith, Exactly!
      But malcontents such as t’rd_eastside, like to blame others.
      If you are “bored”, it means that you are “boring”.
      Stupid fawks! 🙂

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