‘Vancouver Real Estate Market In Full Retreat’


Chart by Ben Rabidoux, hat-tip jesse.

“…the latest statistics show Vancouver’s housing market is mired in a 10-year low for sales with no immediate end in sight.
Each month is starting to look worse than the previous one for Canada’s most expensive housing market as property sales in July dropped 11.2% from June — marking a decade low for activity.” …
“… the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reported the worst July since 2000, and 31.2% below the 10-year average for the month of 3,051 sales.
The board said there were 2,098 residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in July — off 18.4% from a year ago.
“People appear to be cautious about making significant financial decisions right now. While our local economy appears to be quite robust, there may be some concern about the impact of international markets and the federal government’s tightening of mortgage regulations,” said Eugen Klein, president of the board.
Prices continue to hold with the board saying the composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver rose 0.6% to $616,000 from a year ago but dropped 0.7% from June.”

– from ‘Vancouver real estate market in full retreat’, Garry Marr, Financial Post, 2 Aug 2012 [hat-tip allen]

“July home sales in Vancouver, once the country’s hottest real estate market, continued to slide and hit their lowest total for the month since 2000.”
– from ‘July home sales in Vancouver drop to lowest level since 2000’, Globe and Mail, 2 Aug 2012 [hat-tip Dimitri Tishchenko ]

Greater Vancouver Average Prices:
DETACHED – $1,041,300
– Down 15.7% in 5 months from all-time high in Feb, 2012 ($1,235,200)
ATTACHED – $538,300
– Down 9.2% in 4 months from all-time high in Mar, 2012 ($593,100)
APARTMENT – $406,400
– Down 15.9% in 15 months from all-time high in Apr, 2011 ($483,400)

– adamtheman at his Vancouver Bubble thread at redflagdeals, 1 Aug 2012 [hat-tip ScubaSteve]
[Simple averages are vulnerable to outlier effects, volatile in illiquid markets, and of questionable statistical value, but, with those caveats, they’re still one number everybody watches. When the detached average drops through the $1M mark, for instance, it will make local and national headlines, and will have further psychological effects on the market. -ed.]

“The Months of Inventory (MOI) metric for Westside Vancouver houses rose for the fifth consecutive month in June. It has risen from 4.39 in February to 12.51 in July.
Active listing volumes for detached Westside houses are still over 1000 listings and sales dropped to only 83 homes this month.”

good-format relaying info from Sam Wyatt at VCI 1 Aug 2012 9:31pm

“I went for a bike ride in the westside just now.
Up and down at least 40 blocks.
Many, many blocks had two to three for sale signs.
I must have counted a sixty or so in total.
And get this muppets….NOT A SINGLE SOLD SIGN….NOT ONE….NADA…ZIP…ZERO…ZILCH
Holy truck, it’s begun.
Still, we have a way to go before we hear widespread screams in the night.”

Romeo Jordan at VCI 31 Jul 2012 8:24pm

“Richmond’s MOI is currently at 22 for detached homes. To put it bluntly: In August, only 1 out of every 22 homes in Richmond will sell. The other 21 will sit there with for sale signs up. Imagine if you were trying to sell your house and had to compete with 21 other homes, knowing only one of yours would sell.”
ScubaSteve at VCI 1 Aug 2012 12:16am


2785 Chelsea Cr, West Vancouver
“I just had an email sent to me regarding the home in West Vancouver, Chelsea Park – Residential Detached – 2785 CHELSEA CS, V7S 3E9. It sold July 27th for $1,610,000. Assessed at $2,154,000. Interesting to say the least!”
designer69 at vancouverpricedrop 30 July 2012 4:17pm [hat-tip Zerodown]

44 responses to “‘Vancouver Real Estate Market In Full Retreat’

  1. Could be “worse”….

    …”the economy in Las Vegas keeps getting worse and worse,” he says. “Things are awfully bad in Las Vegas. I could not have picked a worse time to sell the property.” – Tommy Ford, who runs a construction firm that builds facades of casinos and hotels, including Caesars Palace and the Venetian.

    [WSJ] – Private Properties

    Zynga’s Mark Pincus Buys a San Francisco Home for $16 Million; Las Vegas Ranch Cuts its Price by 55%; Elderly Saturn founder Waffenschmidt lists NorthPalmBeach waterfront estate for $9.8 Million [something to do with AssistedLiving]….

    http://tinyurl.com/dxhjj67

  2. 2785 Chelsea cr in west van is a 4800 sq/ft home on a 31k sq/ft lot!!! That’s a good deal for the British property. I need to check if this is a long term owner that needs to get out. If so, they just set a new price for the neighborhood.

  3. 2785 Chelsea location hangs above the freeway. You can’t hear yourself talk outside, and the property is ravine like down to the freeway.

  4. The whole world is having problems. The problem is with shrinking economies. People don’t have money to buy or invest. Here in Sri Lanka its becoming hard to make a good deal. Luxury homes empty with no tenants and the government going to build 20000 new condominium units.

    • root cause = credit (mispriced) masquerading as real savings/capital leading to misallocations everywhere
      solutions are in place to the extent this is addressed

    • “Could be worse”, Ziyan-Janaideen…

      [ChinaDaily] – City vows to stop dumping of human waste

      …”The administrative committee of PuYu Lake and urban management authority have promised to take effective measures to stop the illegal dumping of human waste into the lake, a scenic area in downtown Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong province. In addition to boosting patrols, authorities have installed more than 70 cameras along the lake, an official from the Luhu Lake administrative committee said.

      “The cameras, which cover the entire lake area, will soon be put into operation,” said the official surnamed Liu. Anyone caught brown-handed dumping animal or human waste in the lake will be punished to the fullest extent of the law, including heavy fines, he said. According to Liu, workers from his committee were still busy cleaning the waste from the lake on Wednesday.”…

      http://tinyurl.com/c4nawwx

      • Pwew-you lake? Seriously man. Pwew-you lake. HaHahHa!!!

      • feed the carp and the carp will feed you, so continues the virtuous cycle 😮

      • Funny you should say that, ‘Ol Chub… Something to do with 關係 or is that QuidProQuo?

        Reiterating his earlier admonition to ranking members of the CPC’s Central Committee, “We must go deep down… We must immerse ourselves in the reality!” – President Hu Jintao lavished praise on the leadership of the Luhu Lake Administrative Committee for, “fearlessly wading in… for getting their hands dirty… for courageously taking the lead in the Party’s unending struggle against waste mismanagement and corruption”…

      • Of passing interest to Sinologists [and PoliticalCoprologists?]…

        …”Zhang Lifan, a political analyst formerly with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the Communist Party was locked in a desperate struggle over its future direction, but would try and unite behind Ms Gu’s case to “create a favourable and harmonious atmosphere” before the handover.

        “The decision [to try Ms Gu quickly] suggests the leadership is eager to put an end to the political scandal as soon as possible,” Mr Zhang told the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong. “They are hoping to move beyond a scandal that has exposed a leadership split and threatens to lay bare corruption in the party’s highest ranks.”…

        [UK Independent] – China’s rulers seek to close ranks over Neil Heywood death

        http://tinyurl.com/bot8hpv

      • i don’t know sir_nem … i suppose one follows from the other … in which case, i am redirected to an important maxim … take care what to desire in life, or you won’t like the way you turn out

      • Indeed. Existential questions are apparently troubling more than a few Politicos these days…

        [CBC] – B.C. Premier’s office defends $475K credit card bill

        http://tinyurl.com/bp7tyau

        [NoteToEd: Well, at least she didn’t put any Pouilly-Fuissé on the tab. Say… Wait just a minute! Who gets the AirMiles?]

      • And…. this…. is how we do it in BC….

        …”officers were too busy to pursue the matter .”….

        [CBC] – B.C. district paid steep price for tailings pond: Panama company bought land for $150k, sold to district for $800k

        “Documents obtained by CBC show in the summer of 1997, before the regional district was able to buy the land, a company was formed in Panama called Seattle Corporation. Seattle Corporation then purchased all the land surrounding the regional district’s landfill, including the mine tailings pond. The record of sale shows Seattle Corporation paid $149,000 for the land. Six months later, the company sold it to the regional district for more than five times that amount — $800,000.

        “Seattle Corporation got a $600,000 profit from that sale,” says Michael Jessen, who was doing contract work for the regional district at the time. “Somebody has made a tremendous amount of money in a short period of time and that should raise some red flags.”…

        http://tinyurl.com/bvtx3bs

    • hope those Sri Lankan condo’s have room for sustainable, small business development. Plus rules that put a lid on large families

  5. the idea of the Desperation Meter – August 2, 2012
    over at Vancouver Price Drop, is a very good example of creative thinking. You can tell that there is a dearth and quality to Van RE statistical information, which is helping many people’s mind’s evolve.

    • asp chart looks like profile of orca

    • Wow, great source of information, thank you for sharing!

    • “There are currently over 5,000 homes in Vancouver metro area for sale for over $1 million according to MLS.ca. In comparison, the NAR reports that in April, just over 7,000 homes sold in the entire US were sold for over $1 million. And this despite the fact that the US population is 135X greater than the metro Vancouver market, the average personal disposable income in the US is 20% higher than the Vancouver average ($37,100 vs. $30,800) while US per capita GDP is higher than the average for all of BC.”

      Wow.

      • This also struck me as jaw-dropping. Will have to headline, for the record. Amazing.

      • true but the critical consideration is putting bpoe on some license plates

      • At this rate the price of average detached homes will be below a million inside of two weeks. The rate of the drop is stunning. Too fast. Anyone who sells now should count their lucky damn stars. Most will never get out as this epic correction gathers speed.

  6. What I want to know is why doesn’t the local media write about this? Really, the Sun, CBC, Global, etc. They only report when things are going up. When real estate drops, they run away, afraid to tarnish Vancouver’s “reputation” that everyone wants to be here.

  7. Canada Realtors Post Lower Sales In July As Vancouver Plunges
    Bloomberg 3 Aug 2012

    [Story Going International]

    • I hate to say it but I think we have a crash on our hands in Vancouver. This is not a melt, a correction, a deflating balloon or a soft landing anymore.

      • Possibly. This is pretty much what it’d look like.
        It’s circular to say it, but the listings/sales/prices of the next three months will reveal a lot. (In other words “We’ll see”!)

      • Indeed we will. If the current rate of declines hold steady for the next few quarters we will not have to wait long either. The thing is, that even the serious price drops we are seeing now are for the most part only really being acknowledged on sites like these or in the business pages of the papers. Most people don’t go there.

        That is to say that while some people are tuning into the fact the market is in near freefall that most people are still blithly unaware of the danger. Instead we see a common reaction to delist and wait for prices to rise again.

        But this is not going to reflate.

        Not that it matters. None of us has any investment in seeing the current crop of buyers make a last minute sale and take their money and run. Why should we care? The folks who participated in bidding wars and drove prices up so high will lose their shirts. It serves them right for being so pig headed.

        Greed is a sin.(isn’t it)?

  8. B
    To expect people to tell the truth, the people who are connected to the corrupt banking system is a tad naive. We recently sold and parked the funds, the bank manager came in grinning and selling, preaching the” where are you going to invest your cash with us”. I told her that i was just putting the cash in an insured account and she couldn’t understand my worries. I enlightened her about libor manipulation, metals manipulation, exchange manipulation, bear raids, money going missing out of investment funds,the housing crisis down south scandal. She thought that the QE was the answer,magic pixie dust, I told her it takes 36 thousand years to count to 1 trillion, then multiply that by 15 or 16, her jaw hit the floor and she left. Puppets living the life of mushrooms feeding the public. If you own consider the fact that down the rocky road the interest rates will climb. The banks own you, and what is playing out in the States,Europe, Japan, China ,Australia… has just begun here. Prices are dropping, worst inventory numbers since 2000 in this new market trend -aka correction -aka price reduced -aka motivated seller -aka get out now, this has not yet gone mainstream with credible stats. Its not easy to fathom that this market is crashing but its a fact. Do you want to be chained to your house at the banksters discretion? This is proven to be a huge global ponzi. The only thing that really matters is time, you never see a hearst pulling a U-Haul.

  9. Yup, store em up in…you know.

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