“With affordability, or rather unaffordability, having moved off the scale in the past three to four years, the historically volatile Vancouver-area market is undoubtedly under substantial stress. Indeed it is vulnerable to a marked correction.
Although such a correction cannot be ruled out, we believe that the most likely scenario is one of a modest price decline, possibly in the order of 7% to 12% from quarterly peak to trough over the medium-term.”
– RBC Economics, Apr 2012 Report
We anticipate that the initial 10%-off will simply get the ball rolling, as sellers come to market in attempts to secure paper gains, and buyers back away. Thus, the “marked correction” outcome is far more likely.
Vancouver RE will most probably hit trough discounts of 50%-66%-off in the years ahead.