“I was in a washroom in South Surrey yesterday and overheard the following conversation between a 50 something lawyer and another fellow:
Lawyer : “Well, the Real Estate market has not been exactly robust”
Other guy: “Really? I thought it was crazy”
Lawyer: “No. Actually is has been slow for many months and I think it will get a lot slower. There are lots of lawyers who are making a living on real estate convayencing who are scrambling…”
Lawyer before guy could answer: “…I am actually working on importing a new green tea energy drink from China”
A smile crossed my face as I walked out.”
Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive 
I should probably track FVREB more closely than I am.
Fixed http://housing-analysis.blogspot.ca/2012/04/fraser-valley-market-snapshot-march.html
Thanks jesse.
In each chart, 2012 looks middling, with a trend towards ‘interesting’.
As you say April (etc) will be telling.
I registered with the Wave condo in Surrey for fun. (The one with the mall reality show setup)
Just got a second call plus an email plus a text msg from the sales lady (over the last 2 years I have registered for many condo developments, this is the first I have ever gotten a call from the sales team), they are having a VIP event this Sat with Kirk Maclean.
Guess it doesn’t take much to be a VIP anymore.
Tell Maclean to strap on his skates and get back in there for next season.
So yeah it’s not surprising lawyers in the FV are finding business sparse. We’ll see what April brings but it looks to be on the lower end of the past few years. The industry built around property sales has taken a collective pay cut so far this year. That’d be what I call “deflationary”.
Agree. We all know how deep we are invested in the housing market and how much of the FIRE economy is at peak levels. Layoffs are just an inevitable part of the corrective process. This time is different in one respect…those who get the axe may be waiting a very long time to get back into the game again because this credit correction is going to be epic. If Mr Carney resists raising rates again we can rest assured that the offset will come out of falling GDP growth. That is the trade off. Actually, it hardly matters at this late stage except in the extent of the economic damage we will suffer. That means a hard landing and recession are already assured as consumption falls and debt rises in relative terms versus incomes and a contraction in property assets. Higher rates will only blunt the last remaining bit of the excess.
Yeah the Fraser Valley is slow so what. The city of Vancouver is not.
Yeah.. “the condo next door to mine is on fire, so what?”
You honestly think that prices for a sfh are going to fall enough in the city that the average income earner couple making 100,000 a year will be able to afford one. Doubt it.
Now that’s the hallmark of a healthy city… families with good incomes unable to afford a house.
The real crisis comes when the high incomes of today vanish in the swirl of a recessionary squeeze on incomes amidst a large surplus of labour. You all realize that is on the horizon I hope. Too many do the math with a relative factor in mind. The usual assumptions include continuing high wages concurrent with falling house values which is an error in a recession economy. This is the same kind of fallacy that allows so-called (potential) vultures to believe they will swoop in and buy property cheap as the market goes into a crisis. They can imagine property prices falling but cannot guess that same process will take away their job and livelihood thus robbing them of the chance to speculate on the bad choices of others. What they always fail to appreciate is that credit will effectively vanish thus preventing them from ever being a part of the housing market (those in strong cash positions and with solid long term employment excepted). In general though, bursting housing bubbles arrive with very strict and tightened lending procedures. Nobody should therefore make the assumption that all things will be equal in a correction because that is not how bubbles typically end.
Yes I do think that.
@ realitycheck: “You honestly think that prices for a sfh are going to fall enough in the city that the average income earner couple making 100,000 a year will be able to afford one. Doubt it.”
Since when is the average family income $100k? And, what is the average income if you only take, say, under-40 couples? Or under-35? These are the entry buyers that are needed to close the cyclical loop of the RE market. A snapshot of half a dozen couples we know well (30-35 age bracket), mostly well-educated with what would be considered decently rewarding careers, not one makes over $100k combined – maybe in 5 or 10 years. Wages are a lot lower for those of us that started a career in the last decade or so. Throw in a couple of kids and there is no way any of us could ever afford a SFH in Burnaby even. Actually, even if two couples went together to buy a SFH in Burnaby or East Van, that would still be financial suicide. It would take all of us togetehr to purchase a SFH in the west side Vancouver. Madness!
Actually the only two people I know in my cohort (Canadian born, anyway) who have purchased SFH homes are realtors themselves. They drive very nice cars and flip properties. I guess we should all be realtors and just sell to each other…