“Greater Vancouver SFH average price
2011-12:$1,064,249 (+1.70% vs2010) <- dropped 13% since peak
2011-11:$1,134,936 (+8.80% vs2010)
2011-10:$1,162,349 (+9.80% vs2010)
2011-09:$1,104,896 (+8.70% vs2010)
2011-08:$1,162,242 (+16.3% vs2010)
2011-07:$1,133,357 (+20.4% vs2010)
2011-06:$1,215,265 (+24.9% vs2010)
2011-05:$1,223,421 (+28.1% vs2010) *Historical peak
2011-04:$1,204,587 (+20.0% vs2010) <-CMHC rule change”
– from a post by VMD at vancouvercondo info [1 Jan 2012 2:21pm], figures sourced from Larry Yatkowsky.
So, the triad is complete: rising inventory, decreasing sales… now, falling prices.
To paraphrase the numbers: The average purchaser of the average SFH in Greater Vancouver, over the last 12 months, has, on paper, already lost up to 13% of their purchase price, with a further loss of the closing and transfer fees.
Of course, all the usual caveats regarding using ‘average’ prices apply. Regardless, it is what it is, and, if the trend continues, we’ll start seeing YOY price drops. This will make a sub-group of market participants sit up and listen.
From a technical analysis perspective, the recent sharp up trend channel has thus been violated to the downside, moderately important TA support comes in at $1.0M, and $935K, with more crucial support at the 2008-2009 lows, about $740K (39% below the April 2011 peak). We expect that level to give way, likely after an anemic bounce, and expect the ultimate bear market bottom trough to be in the 50%-66%-off area. Sounds crazy to most, but, just watch.