Search Results for: rabidoux

Ben Rabidoux In Vancouver Next Week

Ben Rabidoux has asked me to let readers know that he’ll be in Vancouver next week, giving a talk on housing and the economy. It takes place Thursday April 18th, 4-5pm. More info here. Those readers you who don’t know … Continue reading

Ben Rabidoux Discusses Canadian RE – Why Analysts With Big Institutions Can Never Be Honest About Bearish Thoughts

Ben Rabidoux speaks to Bruce Joseph about the Canadian housing market. Ben explains why analysts with major institutions are unable to honestly share bearish predictions (and, consequently, why one should always take their statements with a grain of salt). – … Continue reading

Overheard At Ben Rabidoux’s Presentation On Canadian Housing – “He asked “When do you think the crash will occur?” Ben, of course, said “Right now, sell now.” Shockingly, the guy next to me said “Hey man, that’s my landlord in Yaletown, he’s got 5 properties down there. I can’t believe it. He’s so screwed.”

As had previously been announced here, Ben Rabidoux gave a presentation on Canadian Housing in Vancouver 28 Nov 2012, and it was very well received by the audience of 650. We hope that Ben posts some form of the talk … Continue reading

Ben Rabidoux’s Vancouver Summary At Macleans – “While sale volumes are nearing recession levels, building in the Vancouver region has been booming.”

“When the August resale data for Vancouver came out last week, the headline news was that sales had fallen to their second lowest level for the month since 1998. Sales were 30 per cent below what they were in August … Continue reading

Ben Rabidoux Reviews the Status and Implications of the Vancouver RE Market

Ben Rabidoux, at his website The Economic Analyst, has recently reviewed the Vancouver RE market in an article entitled ‘Vancouver housing in full correction mode: Implications for Canadian banks’ [3 Aug 2012]. We earlier headlined a single paragraph from Ben’s … Continue reading

Ben Rabidoux at Macleans – “Those who try to explain real estate prices in Canada without acknowledging the role of easy, accessible credit over the past ten years or so have completely missed the boat.”

“The next decade for real estate in Canada will be fundamentally different than the last. Our aging population, a mismatch between where our prices are and where they should be based on our economic performance, and rising interest rates are … Continue reading

Ben Rabidoux – Population Growth And Density Do NOT Justify Vancouver’s Housing Prices

Ben Rabidoux at ‘The Economic Analyst’ has posted an article ‘Population density and house prices: Should Vancouver command such a premium?’ [21 Mar 2012]. Ben shows us that (1.) dwellings are increasing in line with population growth, (2.) Vancouver’s ‘premium’ … Continue reading

Ben Rabidoux, ‘Where We Stand’ – “While it may be too early to call a definitive peak in Vancouver, things aren’t looking good.”

This from Ben Radioux, at ‘The Economic Analyst’, 20 Feb 2012. An account of ‘Where We Stand’. Thanks to Ben. “Keep in mind that this type of data is backwards looking. It tells us what has already happened. Inventory and … Continue reading

Ben Rabidoux, Financial Insights – “I rent my current home” – Check Out; Bookmark

Ben Rabidoux, on his blog ‘Financial Insights’, has been spoiling us all recently with lots of excellent commentary on the economy and the real estate markets. I may be preaching to the choir (or the already converted?) when I suggest … Continue reading

Vancouver Economy Over-Dependent On Debt Spending

When a mortgage is issued, money is injected into the economy from… nowhere. Most people don’t realize this. Most think that mortgages come from money that originated in the real economy that is actually deposited in the bank, but that … Continue reading

‘CMHC seeking to hide foreclosure information from home buyers’ – “CMHC just told us that pricing will stay strong and now they want to keep information about foreclosure secret. Where there is smoke there is fire.”

“Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. has been asking realtors for months to keep consumers in the dark about whether the properties it sells are part of a foreclosure, according to a document obtained by The Financial Post. The move, said … Continue reading

‘Drop From Peak Chart’ and Recent Market Action – Paint Dries Faster In Vancouver!

A ‘Drop From Peak Chart’ constructed and posted by ‘an observer’ at their invaluable blog, ‘Vancouver Price Drop’ [8 Feb 2013]. [click to enlarge] This elegant chart shows how SFH (single family home) prices in various major markets in the … Continue reading

The Froogle Scott Chronicles: Mortgaging Our Souls In Paradise – Part 10: Reversion To The Mean

Reversion to the mean The most likely outcome of any bubble is a reversion to the mean — that is, a return to prices that reflect the long-run mean or average growth rate that existed prior to the bubble. As … Continue reading

Macleans Cover – “Inside The Great Real Estate Crash Of 2013”

– cover of Macleans, 14 Jan 2013 [hat-tip Brian and posters at VCI]. Consider the effects of this boldly unambiguous image on sentiment, particularly that of local sellers. – vreaa — Excerpts from the article, ‘Crash and Burn’, Chris Sorensen, … Continue reading

“At a BBQ at the inlaws’ place back in May, they and all their suburban friends were patting each other on the back about how awesome it was to own property that kept going up and up and up.”

“I just recently found out my inlaws are planning on selling their house in Surrey. In April, a near-identical place across the street sold for $520K. Another near-identical (neighborhood/cul-de-sac built by the same builder in the 70s) went on the … Continue reading

“I personally know 5 people that have overextended themselves buying multiple houses and condos, planning to sell in the future. None of them have gotten out yet and I know for a fact they are underwater on some of these and hoping to sell in the spring.”

“I personally know 5 people that have overextended themselves with multiple houses and condos that they only bought to sell in the future. These are not realtors or people that have any investmeny knowledge in general, they are people that … Continue reading

Hoax/Joke – ‘The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada Follows The Twitter Accounts Of Bearish Bloggers And Not Those Of RE Industry-Insider Commentators’

[UPDATE 6am, 25 Nov 2012: I fell for this hoax completely. Somebody set up a fake OSFI Twitter account and only referenced the bears (with a few gvt organizations as diabolically good cover). I popped up a post pointing this … Continue reading

Premature Bottom Call – “Vancouver’s housing sector may have hit its bottom with an improvement in home sales seen in October”

“Vancouver, British Columbia’s housing sector may have hit its bottom with an improvement in home sales seen in October” – Marc Pinsonneault, National Bank, Wall Street Journal, 21 Nov 2012 Added to our ‘Premature Calls Of Bottom’ sidebar collection. A … Continue reading

“My dad is a boomer and ex city planner. My parents would have a spaz attack if they found out we were buying houses in this market. They’ve been talking about the bubble for years.”

“My dad is a boomer and was a city planner for years. He left his job because of the insane amount of corruption within the department and because council was mostly made up of developers, real estate agents and the … Continue reading

Builders Could Not Possibly Have Timed This Any Worse – “As I’m writing this, I can hear the hammers on some of the seven new luxury single-family houses being built within *one block* of my own West Side rental.”

“As I’m writing this, I can hear the hammers on some of the seven new luxury single-family houses being built within *one block* of my own West Side rental. Indeed, there are not only For Sale signs on literally every … Continue reading

Your House Is A Big Fridge – “Do you plan to sell your fridge in 20 years and retire on it? No, it’s a fridge, you store things in there.”

“Over at York University’s Schulich School of Business, finance prof Moshe Milevsky also believes that too much is sometimes made of owning a home. “The way I look at it is, I tell people your house is a big fridge,” … Continue reading

Canadian Business Declares Beginning Of Canadian “Housing Crash” – “What’s surprising about the weakness in Vancouver is the absence of any change in economic fundamentals to explain it. The market was cooling even before the latest round of mortgage tightening by Ottawa.”

A sombre picture “In just one year, Vancouver house prices have dropped by 12%, and unit sales are plummeting…” … “The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver chalked it up to a “summer lull,” but the numbers suggest a trend … Continue reading

Market ‘Breather’ or ‘Last Gasp’? – Vancouver July Residential Sales Dollar Volume Down 28% YOY

JULY 2012 (compared with July 2011): Vancouver Residential Unit Sales were down 18% (2,135 cf 2,614) Vancouver Residential Sales Dollar Volume was down 28.4% ($1.43B cf $1.99B) Vancouver Residential Average Price down 7.4% ($738K cf $797K) BC Residential Average Price … Continue reading

“There are over 5,000 homes in Vancouver for sale for over $1 million. In comparison, in April, just over 7,000 homes sold in the entire US (135 times the population) for over $1 million.”

“There are currently over 5,000 homes in Vancouver metro area for sale for over $1 million according to MLS.ca. In comparison, the NAR reports that in April, just over 7,000 homes sold in the entire US were sold for over … Continue reading

‘Vancouver Real Estate Market In Full Retreat’

Chart by Ben Rabidoux, hat-tip jesse. “…the latest statistics show Vancouver’s housing market is mired in a 10-year low for sales with no immediate end in sight. Each month is starting to look worse than the previous one for Canada’s … Continue reading

Don Campbell, ‘Real Estate Expert and Educator’ – “We can’t ride that emotional roller coaster thinking that it’s about making money.”

Don Campbell: “We’re probably 12-15% above what the underlying economic fundamentals should say the prices are in Vancouver… so it’s not a bubble, but it is overpriced.”… Don Campbell: “Go through Kits, go through the Westend, you start to see … Continue reading

Preparing To Blame The Inevitable Canadian RE Crash On The Bears! – “I wish the perma-bears would just go back to their lairs for a really long nap.”

“For years we’ve listened to housing perma-bears Garth Turner and Ben Rabidoux warn of a collapse in housing prices. But those stubborn price indexes just aren’t co-operating. When is Armageddon ever going to descend? Actually, I do have a fear … Continue reading

Christian Science Monitor – ‘Canadians Still Think Real Estate Has Nowhere To Go But Up’ – “I would say prices are hyperinflated. But for the price of housing to go down in Toronto, that I can’t see.”

Actor and broadcaster Jeff Douglas says he knows there are “more responsible” things to do than take on a mortgage he will likely have to pay until he turns 70. But that didn’t stop him and his wife, interior painting … Continue reading

Vancouver Year Over Year Price Change – “A pretty sobering chart”

– chart care of Ben Rabidoux, of ‘The Economic Analyst‘, by e-mail, 16 May 2012, who adds “I’m sure part of the decline is due to composition of resales, but pretty sobering chart nonetheless”.

CMHC Cap – “If they do in fact operate within their $600B cap, check out how drastically the growth in their insurance in force would have to slow. That’s a hard stop if ever I’ve seen one.”

– chart via e-mail from Ben Rabidoux, of ‘The Economic Analyst‘, 25 Mar 2012, who adds: “Attached is a chart of CMHC cap on insurance in force as outlined in their latest Corporate Plan. If they do in fact operate … Continue reading

Vancouver’s Too Expensive For Entrepreneurs – “Last night during a meeting we realized that of five, only two of us aren’t thinking about leaving the city in the next year or two.”

“Over the past year I began working with a loose group of consultants; there are five of us who work together in complementary ways. We’ve taken steps towards forming a more formal business together, but last night during a meeting … Continue reading

Denying The Obvious Bubble – Close Your Eyes; Think Happy Thoughts; Don’t Use Nasty Words; Bad Things Will Go Away

“A new year means new resolutions, and we should start fresh when talking about Vancouver real estate.” “Happy 2012! In keeping with the spirit of the brand new year, I say we resolve to look at our dynamic real estate … Continue reading

North Vancouver Condos – “Our building is 40% occupied and next door, 20%. Like ghost towers, elevators are never busy and everybody has 27 parking spaces.”

“Living on the waterfront in a North Vancouver leased 1 bedroom 565 sq. ft. condo. We pay $1,600 per month rent, the owner’s are from mainland China and paid about $535,000 for the unit. Nice location but very cheaply built….granite … Continue reading

A Mortgage Broker and ‘Sidelined’ Prospective Buyer Living On The West-Side Sees Cooling Market

“A comment from ground zero and an industry player, me. I happen to live on the West Side of Vancouver and I am a mortgage broker so let me give you a first hand assessment here in Lotus Land. I … Continue reading

Broad and Deep Negative Effects – “When housing prices do fall the effect on the economy is often much greater than many people expect. Homes are not riskless investments.”

“As I talk with economists from countries whose housing values have risen markedly but not experienced sharp declines, I have been struck by two things. First, they are often confident that national (versus regional) house-price reductions are unlikely. And secondly, … Continue reading

BC Mortgage Loan Approvals Over 20% Of GDP

“Once again we see evidence that the suggestion that the current BC real estate market is being driven by cash-toting foreigners doesn’t jive with reality. BC is leveraged far more than any other province, a shocking finding for a province … Continue reading

Psychologist In Denial – “His house is the sum total of his life’s savings, the thought of it coming down 30% is more than he can stomach. He refuses to read about the US housing crash; he might even deny its existence.”

“People get very defensive about their housing investments. My own father is like that. He refuses to countenance the possibility that housing values will ever decrease in Vancouver. A retired psychologist, he poured just about all his money into his … Continue reading

“Right now I am betting about 85% of my life’s savings in small town Canadian real estate. I am buying nice houses in quiet small Canadian towns for the rental income.”

Ben Rabidoux, of the Economic Analyst, has a fine post headlined at zerohedge.com 24 Jun 2011, ‘What’s Really Driving House Prices In Canada? The Must-See Graph Of The Day…’. Here’s ‘Diogenes’ in the comments section, 24 Jun 2011 19:55 and … Continue reading

“…or (B) The locals are trying to keep up with the Chinese version of the Joneses and heavily indebting themselves in the process.”

A must read commentary by Ben Rabidoux (at The Economic Analyst 14 June 2011) on a must read report, ‘Have Canadian Consumers Reached Their Limits?’, Certified General Accountant Association of Canada. Excerpts- “If we are to preserve our orthodox economic … Continue reading

Cross-Country Rent Check-Up; Care of The Economic Analyst

The above chart from an excellent article by Ben Rabidoux at The Economic Analyst, 11 May 2011, ‘Why Rent?: Examining house prices and rents in major Canadian cities’. From the charts in the article, it can be seen that from … Continue reading

Mentions Of VREAA Elsewhere

“Has the Vancouver market peaked? Good question—one that bores many a Vancouver dinner party, and one that preoccupies such Internet sites as the Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive.” – Macleans, 20 Apr 2010 “A super collection of eye-popping anecdotes from … Continue reading

If There Isn’t A Bubble, Why Are All These Public Figures Feeling Moved To Publicly Announce That There Isn’t A Bubble?

This post, originally published 2 Mar 2010, will now be used as a repository for similar statements from public figures, and updated on an ongoing basis. It is accessible from the ‘What Bubble?’ sidebar graphic. – vreaa “People use the … Continue reading