Average Vancouver Detached Price Loses Last 12 Months’ Worth of Gains In One Month.

vancouver-prices

“As was largely expected, the first official data since the bursting of the Vancouver housing bubble following the 15% luxury real estate tax, was ugly: on one hand, the number of Vancouver home sales fell 26% from a year earlier, and tumbled by 23% comparted to July, to
2,489 transactions. Detached properties were hit hardest as sales dropped 45% from a year earlier. Transactions of attached homes such as town-houses dipped 25% and apartment sales were down 10%. On the other, prices likewise slumped, with the average price of detached Vancouver properties crashing 17% in just one month, and already down 0.6% on the year, to C$1.47 million in August, the lowest price since September 2015.

What is worse, is that what was until now a mostly regional housing bubble, is starting to spread in the form of a hit to Canadian consumer confidence. As Bloomberg reports, “a shifting real estate market in Vancouver led Canada’s consumer confidence index lower for a second week.” According to the BBG Nanos telephone poll shows, the share of respondents who see local real estate prices falling has almost doubled in the last two weeks, rising to 22.5% in the latest survey, up from previous readings of 20.5% and 12%. Conversely, the share of those who see higher prices fell to below 40 percent for the first time since April.”

– from ‘Vancouver Housing Bubble Burst Sends Local Consumer Sentiment Crashing Most In Three Years’, Zerohedge, 6 Sept 2016

53 responses to “Average Vancouver Detached Price Loses Last 12 Months’ Worth of Gains In One Month.

  1. No this is a shallow pull back. There just isn’t enough waves in the Elliottwave chart to show this is the top. We are going through wave 4 of a right now. There will be a b rally followed by a c decline. But at the c, this will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime. If Trump becomes president, many Americans will also come buy in Vancouver.

  2. I don’t buy it. There hasn’t been any change in prices on realtylink. August has always been a slow month. Everything I’ve read says sales have slowed but prices remain high.

    However, I wouldn’t mind if prices of SFH fell. It is out of hand.

    Sent from my iPhone

  3. That is a big one-month change. Did foreign buyers stop buying, or did the pied piper stop playing? Or is this noise?

  4. It’s the average price, so many caveats apply.
    But, it is the chart that many people watch.

  5. C’mon, vreaa, technical analysis is utter bunk!

    • Professional traders & academics disagree.

      • Show me a “professional trader” who, on the basis of technical analysis, has consistently produced outsized returns over the long-term. You won’t find a single one.

        You can find an “academic” that supports any position, no matter how bogus. Show me broad-based, widely-accepted empirical research. Again, you won’t find any.

  6. “Detached was hit hardest”.

    Brian, how, but howwww, could this be? Your beloved, ever-rising detached. Say it ain’t so.

    • Yeah I wonder what caused this? Maybe a little foreign tax that actually hit where I said the money was coming from? Sure, it’s all local demand, that’s why when you put a 15% foreign tax the prices fell. Coincidence? Yeah right. Try to explain that one to me.

      • That’s easy.

        1. The market started to turn well, before the tax, under its own preposterous weight.

        2. It’s not the tax itself that matters, it’s the psychological effect it might wield on a highly-emotional market.

      • Really… The fact that Juwai reports inquiries about vancouver real estate over 1 M has dropped 56% after the tax has absolutely nothing to do with this. And this proportionally hits properties over 1M mark much worse than the ones under 500K. I wonder why the market is dropping more in properties that locals can’t afford.

  7. Chart looks bad, I admit. But volume is tiny. More cancelled and expired listings than sold which tells me that there isn’t a ton of motivated sellers out there. I myself am looking for prime land but still can’t find a deal anywhere on those, so it hasn’t really helped me unfortunately. Let’s see where this takes us.

    Clark government determined to keep the foreign money out. I say good luck, but 15% is a start.

  8. 2008-2009 not only had deep price cut but also good selection of properties. 2012-2013 not so much, but those keeping US$ funds in the US property still come out fine. I don’t see any of this repeating any time soon, perhaps after the election.
    ……………………………………….

    I know the stereotype around foreign investors so I want to set this post up to let you know they are two absolutely amazing people. Despite our language barrier we have become excellent friends, mostly via WeChat which helps us translate. They also bought me these really nice little engrained silver Chinese bowls, which I’m not sure what to do with or how to use them. If anyone knows please share!

    Foreign Investors’ thoughts on the new foreign buyers tax
    http://tinyurl.com/zd6t6el
    ~ the 15% tax makes little difference to Chinese investors
    ~ many Chinese investors who are now citizens came through the QIIP and had purchased homes in Vancouver before applying, those homes were not declared in the application process.
    they fear CRA will crack down and come after them for not declaring the home purchase(s) during the application process.
    ~ they fully agreed that offshore money was a driver in real estate prices and also acknowledged tax avoidance is a problem in Canada.
    ~ they won’t be investing in Vancouver anytime soon due to the uncertainty (?? of not being upfront with MICC and CRA, that has nothing to do with BC’s foreigner tax.)

  9. This is absolutely disgusting. The pure terrorist rat politicians and mainstream media rats have purley caused this bullshit. Oh gee you think its a tad bit overpriced or proped up by Chinese, oh gee whiz golly. Duty slimy rat media rat snakes need to be shot in the face. Canadian polutirats are sucking from and purley eating from rich fob chinese ppls asshole and have been doing so for q white Christy rat Clark…you look at the median house hold income in areas and they are like 120k a detached shuthole is 2 million ie you need an income of 500k!!!!???? or 400 percent more than your neighbours to buy a tear down there. The prices have gone up 500 percent in 10 years and all are Chinese owned…..fuck right offf media rats and politicians in van and toronto need to be lined up and all shot for selling out canadians period.. No PhD no surgeon no scientists ect can earn 500 fucking k in canada…no hope is left for Canadians….unless you pay ppl 10 cents a month and get them to slave away you ain’t fucking making 500k a year to have the luxury to buy a shithole in van….

    • Financial advisors, portfolio managers earn $500K / yr easily Many specialists also bills over $1M/yr to BC Medicare.

      Even many RE agents makes over $1M/yr.

    • don’t worry, your overlord Christy is looking to bring down the market. Her reelection depends on it.

    • I learned through a common accountant friend that a few rookie agents in their 20’s declared low 6 figures on income tax. The more experienced ones were making >$500k to $1 million.

  10. 56 5th Ave E – maybe the seller will be forced to drop his price. The tragedy.

  11. 4715 Moss St – I posted on July 23 that this sweet house on a 5,000 sq/ft lot was underpriced by at least $200K by a slick-tongued white Tesla driving agent. The list then was $1.199M.

    There was an Open. The listing and sign outside the house disappeared immediately.

    47 days later it’s listed again by the same slick-tongued white Tesla driving agent. Open is this weekend with a price raised to $1.349M = $150K up.
    Curious to know if it’s the same seller, or is it an assignment/flip.

  12. @El Ninja – geez…are you so freaking lazy that you can’t even do a simple Google search now?

    Here is a quick simple search on research paper about technical trading.

    https://scholar.google.ca/scholar?q=technical+trading+scholarly+articles&hl=en&as_sdt=0&as_vis=1&oi=scholart&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjk-6qXk4DPAhUBjz4KHTFbAlUQgQMIGjAA

    As for traders who are long term successful? How about Citadel? Bridgewater? AQR? never heard of those? yeah, not surprised….

    • Lol. Tried your link. Nothing there.

      I asked for an example of a successful technical trader. All three of the firms you mention proclaim “fundamental” or “research-driven” analysis as their core philosophy. Again, nice try.

      • What do you think they are researching? How to apply quarterly earning reports and maybe monthly analyst earning revisions to do HFT that does hundreds of trades a second? You act as if you are knowledgeable in investing when you really knows squat.

        As for the link, it’s a quick Google search. If you are too lazy to read some of the papers or do a more refined search like “Does Technical Trading work?”, etc, then fine. Continue on in your ignorance….I couldn’t care less…

      • You can’t make an assertion and then, in the face of questioning, stand by it without providing evidence.

      • Whatever…I give you some info that your assertion is not right and points out some new avenue for you to explore. But if you are too lazy then that’s fine. Too bad for you and no loss for me.

    • Some more on efficacy of technical analysis. Plenty more articles & research papers when you use more specific search terms or topics.

      http://scholar.google.ca/scholar?q=technical+analysis+stock+efficacy&btnG=&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&as_vis=1

  13. AirBnB hosts having difficulty refinancing homes – US only though. I don’t think Canada banks would mark AirBnB rentals as a negative here.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-08/sharing-economy-shambles-airbnb-hosts-having-difficulty-refinancing-homes

  14. Pingback: Average Vancouver Detached Price Loses Last 12 Months’ Worth of Gains In One Month. – vegan-kochen.tk

  15. It seems that the CoV mayor’s mil corruption case may have a VANCOUVER link.

    page 4 of this investigative report:
    http://tinyurl.com/zbvn9c3

    2014-09-02, Wei Qi departed for Vancouver, Canada (one day before Qu Zhang Minjie was arrested).
    His wife Wang Su-Fan has been in Canada to accompany their kid(s) studying here.

    2015 March, Wei Qi was put on ‘Red Notice Wanted List”

    To recap the background of this case (courtesy of Ian Young of SCMP, dd 2016 July 27):
    “According to a lengthy account of the trial by the official Xinhua news agency, the case against Zhang centres on a 2009 deal to transfer control of a state-owned Harbin corn farm into the hands of Harbin Dongjiang Agricultural Technology Co, a private agricultural firm. But Zhang – the city official in charge of the transfer – allegedly conspired with the firm’s representative, Wei Qi, and co-accused Wang Shaoyu to doctor the terms of the sale.”

    • Ever since I learned that valuable information on Central Bankers’ relay, I stop reading all charts.
      Per OECD’s read per stage spans 12 to 16 years, and there remains a dozen or so members in the team orienteering the unfamiliar terrain, by the time the final baton passes on ~ see you all in the geriatric ward.. 🙂

      • rod_jonsson_pmd

        CBs ultimately are not bigger than the market. manipulations, trying to forestall inevitability, leads to bigger breakdowns. need patience but when things go, they really go. this one here is v important and not looking good. if it goes, would be a doozy – think implications

    • [G&M] – Seizures of undeclared cash spike at Vancouver International Airport

      As Vancouver’s housing market began sizzling, border guards at the nearby international airport were seizing millions of dollars in undeclared cash from Chinese citizens, with total amounts jumping 50 per cent in each of the past three calendar years, government data show.

      According to the information, released to The Globe and Mail by a New Democrat MLA, during that period, border guards confiscated more than $13-million in hidden currency from 792 Chinese people passing through Vancouver International Airport, which is Canada’s second-busiest after Toronto. The average person had $17,000 in hidden bills, bank notes or drafts.

      That is in addition to the $323-million declared at the airport by 20,000 Chinese citizens or passengers on flights to and from that country, during roughly the same period, according to data released to The Globe through a freedom of information request….

      http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/seizures-of-undeclared-cash-spike-at-vancouver-international-airport/article31787802/

      • Lots of people carry $9500 just so they don’t need to declare, especially those with large number of children, even 1 year old can carry $9500 without worry!

        Also, I guess most of these people who got seized didn’t have enough $$$ for that special HSBC account.

        Are there any actual consequence to declaring the cash? Like paying taxes or lots of forms & such to proof it is not for terrorism financing or money laundering? I think most people don’t declare for fear of taxes?

      • “The average person had $17,000 in hidden bills, bank notes or drafts.”
        In Asia, shoppers carry that kind of cash with them. When I asked them “why?”, they said when a good bargain turned up it was often too late to get to the bank or their visa limit might not be enough to cover the purchase. And we are not talking about buying a Richard Mille watch.
        Visitors often poked fun at our C$9,999 limit when flying into YVR, because they could bring $29,999 into their country without declaring it.

  16. 4193 Penticton – “tranquil cul-de-sac” – tranquil for two minutes at a time until Skytrain rattles your head. Listed at $568K over last assessed.
    “Greenbelt in back.” – a pocket-sized triangle and the bushes along Skytrain. Why does it take three agents to list a house?

  17. 1424 13th Ave E: sold two years ago for $938K – now listed at $1.99M.
    A dismal location with a dismal renoflation with a view of a dismal parking lot of a low-rise apt. building. A crap deal – a real floater.

  18. 2822 48th Ave E: last assessed at $1.425M – now listed at $2.568M – a bump of $1.143M without bothering to do a renoflation.
    The property does face a park, but the land here is wonky – like the Tea Swamp in Mount Pleasant – dicey to build. Better get a subject to a soil engineer’s evaluation. That’s pricey, but not as pricey as trying to build on a bog.

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