Analyst on Global – “Sheer insanity…You’re pricing local, hardworking people out of the market… It’s fueled by a money laundering bubble that politicians, in cahoots with the real estate industry, don’t want to end.”

Speaking on Global BC News Morning, Cohodes made it clear that he has no personal stake in the Vancouver real estate market.
Cohodes said he wants to speak out about the housing market in Vancouver because he feels strongly “people are being taken advantage of.”

The Greater Vancouver real estate board says the benchmark price of a detached home in Vancouver hit $1.56 million in June, which is up 38.7 per cent in one year.
“I think it’s a money laundering-induced market,” said Cohodes. “Where the local politicians, or the BC Liberals, are kept or in cahoots with the real estate brokers, developers, lawyers, that angle. And they have sought Chinese money to keep the market propped up and it won’t last.”
“China has capital controls on and Vancouver has become the money laundering mecca of either the world or North America and something is going to change and change drastically.”
Cohodes said if the provincial government doesn’t step in to change the market, they’re going to be voted out.
“This is sheer insanity,” he said. “What’s going on is you’re pricing local, hardworking people out of the market and as I’ve said before, the housing market in Vancouver resembles the Vancouver stock exchange and penny stocks many years ago and that didn’t end well at all.”
Finance Minister Mike de Jong has said he does not believe Vancouver is in a real estate bubble, to which Cohodes said “he’s full of more crap than a Christmas turkey.”
“The market is ridiculously high and Christy Clark goes and takes real estate people over to China.”
“They have the records,” said Cohodes,” they just don’t want people to really know or they don’t want people to know the truth.”
In a statement to Global News, de Jong said:
We continue to work with both local governments and the federal government to address issues in Vancouver’s real estate sector, particularly to help bring new supply of homes to the market at affordable prices, and acting on concerns about regulation and enforcement. The premier announced last week that the province will end self-regulation of the real estate industry, and further steps aimed at helping make homes more affordable for the middle class will follow in the near future.
Cohodes said he has solutions to fix what the “issues are” but B.C. politicians don’t want to “take the medicine because their livelihoods depend on this.”
According to Cohodes, people who buy in this market will only become “debt servants for the rest of their lives.” He said when Vancouver’s market does tank or collapse, people are going to lose a generation of savings and equity.
“It’s fueled by a money laundering bubble that politicians don’t want to end.”
“At some point, bubbles burst.”
– from ‘Vancouver’s real estate is ‘fuelled by a money laundering bubble’: Market analyst’, Amy Judd, Global News, 5 July 2016

318 responses to “Analyst on Global – “Sheer insanity…You’re pricing local, hardworking people out of the market… It’s fueled by a money laundering bubble that politicians, in cahoots with the real estate industry, don’t want to end.”

  1. I like the contrast between “debt servant” and the marketing fluff, “property ladder”.

  2. The interviewer asked a key question: Why is he speaking out – to which he replied – it was a public service. Nice.

    A guy who was in bed with Goldman Sachs; now calling them racketeers; a Wall Street short trader who failed and is now raising chickens in California while clucking about Canadian real estate.

    Out of the million things he could be doing this sweet little former trader is now shorting one sketchy mortgage lender and he wants to share his story just because he wants to help the regular working guy.

    Manure.

    • Conspiracy theorization: distorting information by the degree to which it undermines your preformed judgements.

      • Until they become conspiracy facts which happens quite a lot now.

        PSA my ass…sure he has very valid points, but I have serious doubt he’s doing this out of the goodness of his black heart, and raising chickens in Cali is simply not enough for him.

      • If you posted here that you were short the Pound heading into Brexit, or were loaded up on US Treasuries, or had been scooping up gold miners on the cheap in 2015, it might lend your words some credibility.

        Simply parroting the same ‘analysis’ that bears have been posting here for almost a decade (gasp!), is not going to cut it.

        — redacted —

        Something, something about my track record which you could parse from my previous posts on this blog – needless to say I have done very well.

        You, on the other hand, don’t even know what you don’t know.

      • So now we all need to meet some “Blammo” standard of approval in order to post here? What a disgraceful attempt to stifle debate. Facts making you uncomfortable, are they?

        How I have managed my investments in the past, which you couldn’t verify anyway, is irrelevant. My arguments stand on their own merit.

      • Let me put it to you this way, the average renter is being run over by asset inflation while wage deflation unties their shoelaces. Tilting at windmills is not going to change that.

    • @Arnie, @space

      You may not like this guy, or the industry he comes from. Whatever. But can you really deny what he is saying — that Vancouver has become a cesspool of speculation and murky capital flows? That RE is now out of reach for the average working household, let alone the below average ones?

      Get a brain. And a heart.

      • Conflict of interest much??? He is shorting real estate and he is speaking loudly against it in hopes that government will intervene and make him money.

  3. One of my suites opened up recently and we ended up renting to a friend of a friend – at below market rates! But this is because my cost base is so low, and I don’t want to disrupt the existing co-tenant with an unknown variable.

    I would hate to be looking for a rental situation right now:

  4. @El Ninja – didn’t you say that you have a timeline for your prediction about the price drop? I thought it was 5 years with 30% minimum from what Apr 2016 prices? Now you say you don’t know when?

    And you were complaining about not able to short the market. I gave some ideas and you are complaining that I’m telling you how to build a watch instead of telling you when the time?

    WTF??

    • Wait wait wait wait, I am pretty sure there is written proof it was November 2015 prices and it was like 50 to 75 percent and timeline was 1 to 3 years. Cause I pressed him for it at that time. I could dig it up if need be.

  5. El Ninja, isn’t this guy shorting canadian real estate? Sure, no conflict of interest there. How is he any better than the agents which you so despise of. I am certain he is doing so much speaking out for the good of the public.

    Speaking of this, how is being priced out an issue? You could rent, it would be the same anyways. No one said you have to buy, just go ahead and rent. There is little difference and you can prove to the world how financially literate you are. So in reality, why don’t we just leave the situation the way it is and more people can enjoy renting, it’s awesome really.

    Speaking of renting, one of my friends put his investment townhome for rent. This complex actually allows pets, so he has always had renters with pets in his place. He thought he was going for above market rate, but boy was he wrong. Within 24 hours, he had 30 replies, 10 of which wanted to just rent it right away, 15 of which wrote their life story begging him to choose them. It was so bad the ad had to be pulled as his phone blew up. This isn’t downtown, this is in coquitlam, 1 bedroom townhome that is 43 years old and he wanted something like 1250 for it plus utilities. I am a bit speechless to be honest. The place would only cost about 180K to 190K to buy.

    • Royce McCutcheon

      Since no one asked yet: is your 180/190k statement a typo? Because if you can get a place here for that price, ask $1250/month, and get that much demand, I will buy one here today – with cash – and make that happen.

      I have a very hard time believing that your take on the potential purchase price is even slightly close to right. Unless you meant that the price you’re quoting is what he paid a long time ago.

      • Really? You serious? Ok, then do this, look up your cheapest 1 bedroom condos / townhomes in burnaby and coquitlam and find one that is around the lougheed mall area that allows pets as part of the strata. Then, put an offer on it that is less than 190K and just sit at that price until the seller caves in. (he did this recently, within the last 6 monthes, so I figure you can still do this). Now, put it up on craigslist as pet friendly, eg. allow cats and dogs… and ask for 1250. See what you get. Seriously, try it.

      • One thing that I don’t think you are accounting for Royce is the pets part. It has to have pet allowance which jacks up the rent by about 200 dollars. I am not sure how much you know about the rental market but if you want, you can take a look at the supply of housing that allows pets vs those that don’t.

  6. Just to throw it out there, I seriously doubt that the BC Lib will be voted out of the office, unless we get another Gordon Wilson moment. BCers have the fear of God when it comes to NDP and many voters treat them as basically the devil. Whether they will vote for the devil to punish BC Libs is very hard to say. Witness Clarke’s last election victory when everyone thought they would be wiped out like the Social Credits.

    Also, please remember that BC is not Metro Van / Lower Mainland. There is at least 9 times more land masses out there and lots of ridings. For most of the rest of the prov, Metro Van RE problem is a problem the locals would like to have.

    • I think they could lose. I would never vote for the NDP and hope that it won’t happen but I think the BC Liberals are becoming too arrogant for their own good. It’s like the way Harper went off the rails in the last campaign because he took for granted the power he was given. When you are in power for this long it is hard not to get arrogant.

  7. 3568 Falaise – last assessed at $1.5 – just listed ar $3M. You can’t get a mortgage for this kind of bump. Better have lots of cash.

  8. ‘Cahoots’ is perhaps too strong. It’s really just a convergence of interests.
    Conspiracy theories are unnecessary to explain what’s going on… I’d suspect the politicians, like 97% of the population, believe that ever ascending RE prices in Vancouer are inevitable and justified; even a right. And, of course, our provincial finance minister owns (or part owns)… what was it?… nine properties?
    The hedge fund guy says he has no investments either way in Vancouver RE, so that should be taken at face value. If he was somehow short the market, and not disclosing, and he made all these statements, he’d be risking SEC type problems.
    That aside, it’s interesting to see how people get into a huff if a guy who may have interests in the market falling talks it down, when we have decades of RE industry insiders and people long RE pumping it to the sky without any mainstream complaints about that.

    • Well, do you like people telling you that you are fat, ugly, or that dress make you look fat? That’s basically what short sellers are telling people.

    • I wouldn’t have batted an eye except your posts earlier about how this guy is shorting canadian real estate. But you could argue Vancouver isn’t equal to what he is shorting which you would technically be correct. Put it this way, doesn’t this guy make a hell of a lot of money if the market crashed 65%? If so, isn’t he advocating for measures to choke foreign investment out of this market which would facilitate a crash happening?

    • Hilarious to witness the utter contempt toward this short seller for talking down, while squat is said about the pumpers who have stopped at nothing to inflate this bubble with every cheap trick in the book. The hypocrisy is glaring.

      • No you are right, but I am saying they are all the same. He is just after money just like everybody else, no better no worse.

      • People like other people who makes flattery comments towards them (ie. RE prices will go up, your house will worth more! you did the right thing!) vs people who tell unflattering truth (ie. house price will go down! You overpaid! you will be ruined!).

        Oh yeah, the RE bears have also been wrong for like 10 years and if anyone listened and took the advice and stayed out, how much do you think they will like the bears?

    • VREAA,
      After all those years, you’re still taking the high road.
      I remember you moderated when posters used the term RE Cartel.
      After newly revealed illegal activities by various RE companies – exposed by the G&M – it’s pretty obvious that this racket has been going on for a long time.
      Even Christy Clark seems to be fed up. Or at at least she is pretending.
      It’s time to call a spade a spade. Let’s bring back the Zalm. Faaaantastic.

  9. @El Ninja – Wait, I thought you said it is all about the local interest rate and a RE bubble? Now you are admit there is capital flows involved as well now?

    And didn’t Brian make exact that point about houses being out of reach of even well to do local incomes due to foreign $$, which I remember you are saying isn’t relevant to the overall RE market?

    • You should refer back to some of my previous posts, wherein I noted that Asian wealth is definitely a factor in this mess. But I believe that record-low interest rates, and the record-high levels of household indebtedness and speculation that they have engendered, are a more-important driver.

      Also, “murky capital flows” doesn’t only mean dirty Chinese money. There is subprime lending in Canada, there are unprecedented HELOC’s, there are intergenerational wealth transfers at never-before-seen levels. All of these capital flows lack transparency.

      • If your RE aspiration is a 400 sq ft condo for your family with 2 kids, sure interest rates probably is the dominant driver right now. But how many people aspire to that? Over at vancouvercondo.info, pretty much every bear wants that SFH in choice neighborhoods like Van West cuz, you know they grow up in Van and they deserve it. Guess what? Mortgage rate can be 0% and you can have a $300K family income, you wouldn’t be able to afford that $4M Van West house. Interest rate is irrelevant there.

        Frankly, most of the angst like that #donthaveamillion are because young people want that SFH, not a condo, or TH, but a SFH.

      • FYI, everyone: space889 is the poster on vancouvercondo.info with the greatest number of votes in favour of having his IP banned.

      • Yes, a downside of not constantly using foul language, calling 1 billion people locust, scums, criminals, and advocating genocide.

  10. @El Ninja – Also, if that you are that certain about the pace of price decline and the time line – 3 years, why wouldn’t you try to short the market like I suggested? You already know the time but you say you don’t know of a way to build the watch. I show you some ways. So why not do it? A 50% decline on a Dunbar SFH of ~$4M is approx $2M, and with a timeline of no more than 3 years, that’s some pretty good return there, and incentive to do something to that money.

    The best part is that unlike buying where you need $$$ and borrowing capacity, shorting requires neither or very little $$. So why wouldn’t you be willing to do it?

    Unless you have no conviction in what you saying?

    • I’m not certain. Only a fool makes guarantees about the future. However, after weighing the evidence, and taking into consideration historical precedent, I believe a decline is the most likely outcome.

      You missed my point about the watch. You need to go back and reread what I said.

      • Hey, you are the one who said and I quote: “there is no if” when I said if the market will crash on an earlier thread. Pretty bold words dude. You sounded a lot more certain back then.

      • Correct. There is no if, in my mind.

        What I am not absolutely certain about is the exact timing, duration, and extent of the decline.

        With each increase in prices, however, my conviction grows.

      • P.S. you really are obsessed with my views, aren’t you.

      • Yep, i am completely obsessed, it’s all I do. Hey, don’t you know I get paid to do this? The more time I spend on this blog, the more I get paid.

      • So now that prices has gone up since your first Nov 2015 price prediction, it’s even more of a sure bet, no? So why no short this market? If you aren’t sure about the timing, make it a 5 year contract. That’s going to be long enough right? Cuz if after 5 years and the thing still hasn’t crashed, I don’t think you can say you were right all along, if even it came to be.

  11. 30-year Treasuries (in blue)


    • 7 property funds are frozen to prevent panic investors scrambling to get their money back.
      Eerie echoes of start of financial crisis
      http://tinyurl.com/hkev72o

    • What’s the white line?!

      I sold XLB on Monday….damnit! Should have held onto it…..we might actually get a sub-1% 10Y CA Gov’t bond yield. With 10 UST at ~ 1.5%, while JPY 30Y is now under 0% yield, I think interest rate in CA and US have a lot room to go down. I’m just hoping there will be a 50bps back in yields so I can get back in….


  12. This chart shows house prices have rocketed in four out of the FVEY over the past generation.
    When some big shot says there is no bubble here, he must be referring to Vancouver as a “State”, not a provicial metropolis.

    • As per Arnie, none of those sources is credible.

    • You do know that official CPI rate is very under-stated compared to the 1980 methodology? So that would play a part in it. Also, just because something run up a lot in real terms doesn’t automatically make it over-valued and bubble.

      Apple went from pretty much penny stock status to now the biggest or 2nd biggest company in the world, way way way up in real terms. I doubt many would say Apple is a bubble just cuz its price went up so much.

      There might be reasons that justify that rise in prices of Van RE. Maybe not 100%, but not 0% either.

      • There’s really no reason for a country’s real estate to appreciate in real terms at all. If you look at the U.S. Real Home Price Index, which goes back to 1890, the compound annual rate of appreciation is 0.37%.

      • Really? So NY SFH home prices on say Manhatten island hasn’t appreciated at all? Or how about a SFH price in Paris?

        Is the average Beijing / Shanghai condo prices going to fall back to inflation adjusted prices which would probably be 70%+ lower?

      • Don’t ask me. Just look at history.

  13. 2955 E 29th and 3088 E 28th both being flipped for the third time within the year. 2948 E 25th also being flipped.

    • And CRA is still doing squat about the tax evasion.

    • 3005 27th Ave E was also bump sold three times in less than 6 mos. – a really great 100+ yr old house in a garbage location – a hideous location. The last buyers look to be Viets, and seem to be keepers. Maybe they’ll be bee keepers. First thing they did was paint the place and install a garden – left the ramshackle “building” at the rear. Crazy to contemplate that if they’d bought just months earlier they could have saved the better part of $400K. Gotta sell a lot of honey to pay for that pot of gold alongside the raging Nootka River.

      A Viet property owner that I know got her downstroke to pay for two Van houses from working as a hair stylist. Of course, she declared every penny of income plus tips.

  14. rod_jonsson_pmd

    like molten salt in watermelons – lol – … http://tinyurl.com/z39wtm2

  15. NZ Central Bank is considering further tightening mortgage lending rules to take some of the heat out of the country’s overheated housing market and safeguard financial stability.

    The central bank has already targeted property investors in Auckland, introducing measures last year that require a 30% deposit for a mortgage secured against an investment property in the city.
    http://tinyurl.com/zehpl4g

    • [Guardian] – Race and real estate: how hot Chinese money is making Vancouver unlivable

      “When you think it can’t get any worse, it does. So you keep adjusting your expectations, you know?”

      Over the past year, the price of a single family house in Vancouver increased by an incredible 30%, to an average of $1.4m. It’s just the latest, most dramatic jump in an already dramatic long-term trend that has turned the beautiful but unassuming Canadian city into one of the world’s least affordable, with a housing price-to-income ratio of 10.8. That’s third after Hong Kong and Sydney, and well ahead of London, which ranks eighth at 8.5.

      Driving the rise is an unprecedented flood of foreign capital, mainly from China. “What you have is a huge pool of very wealthy people who want to hedge against uncertainty back home,” says Thomas Davidoff, a real estate economist at the University of British Columbia (UBC). “Combine anxious money – a lot of it – with a beautiful gateway city that has limited space to build, low property taxes, lax regulation on capital flows, and wealth-friendly immigration programmes, and you get a market like this one,” – a market where an ordinary house with a waterfront view can sell for $15m while people earning local wages struggle to buy or rent a home.

      https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/jul/07/vancouver-chinese-city-racism-meets-real-estate-british-columbia#img-1

      • rod_jonsson_pmd

        may get to see effect of packing decade+ of entertainment into a few short months

      • Well DeJong gain a supporter with his stats – Garth Turner!

      • De Jong’s stats are bogus.

      • [BIV] – Asian real estate conference ridicules government foreign home buyers estimate: Agents, experts say Chinese buyers alone account for much more than 3% of B.C. homebuyers

        …”A provincial government statement that only 3% of B.C. residential sales are made to foreign buyers and that Chinese nationals represent just 2.5% of Metro Vancouver home buyers drew rolling eyeballs and laughter at the packed July 7 Asia Real Estate Association of America (AREAA) conference in downtown Vancouver.

        “No. Absolutely not,” said an incredulous Byron Burley, Shanghai-based vice-president of Chinese-language juwaii.com, China’s largest foreign residential real estate search engine. “It is way, way higher than that.”

        Burley noted that millions of Chinese nationals use his site, which has from 3,000 to 5,000 residential listings from B.C. at any time.”…

        https://www.biv.com/article/2016/7/asian-real-estate-conference-ridicules-government-/

    • I actually for one think his stats are quite accurate and consistent from what I have found. Tom Davidoff does a good job of explaining this point. It’s not the buyers who are foreign, it is the money. So again, how many foreign buyers do not have a proxy person with a PR or a relative who is a Canadian? It is probably a very small number. Talk to most agents and ask them, is the person the contract foreign? They would say about 1 in 20 maybe. But ask them if the money is foreign, they would tell you a hell of a higher percentage. It’s a very different question.

  16. Renting is going real well for those who can’t afford to buy. http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/renting-in-vancouver-owning-vancity

    • No wonder bears are pissed and angry more than usual. Not only is their betting going wrong, horribly wrong, but their old favorite argument about saving $$ renting and living the high life that home owers can’t have is rapidly falling apart as well.

  17. Single-family home price declines in Vancouver: Trend or timing?
    http://tinyurl.com/z2837rz

    • Probably just bull flagging…

      • Not bull flagging – just sloppy mindless reportage.

        Take the first list: 797 E 18 – a no name agent that has only one listing – working in a company that surfaced just a year ago in the real estate swamp. That blurp you hear when gases bubble up in a swamp – that’s a real estate bubble.

        Last assessed was $1.093M – open house this Sunday is listed at $1.55M. Where’s the big drop? Dollars to donuts she got this listing from a gullible fellow ethnic; or a senile neighbour.

        The other turd of a listing is on a puny 2100 sq/ft lot: 3709 Windsor. Last assessed at $865K. WTF would you expect it to sell for. Agents are promising sellers the moon to con them into giving them a listing. It’s free advertising to stick a for sale sign in the yard – meanwhile, with prices ratcheting up, even high asks become reasonable.

        The scabrous hair-fluffing twat that listed my neighbours house – she was his “friend” – slipped in a one year contract. Then she took off to Cancun. When she came back she kept trying to beat him down on price. In this rising market! In a year that property went up a quarter mil.

        The sloppy reportage goes into a crud real estate auction put on by some lazy clown. The burned out property at 6707 Burford had a $1.7M reserve. It missed by $200K. Is that news?

        YouTube Neil Jenman on auctions.

      • Nothing to see hear folks, move along.

        It will interesting to see what the bulls on this blog say when prices crater. My guess is that they’ll blame anyone but themselves. Or just disappear…

      • Thanks Arnie. I was too lazy to do my own research.

      • Oh, well, considering how far up prices has come since last year, it will be a long way down before it craters. You need a 30% drop just to go back one year. So good luck with that. After such a long bull run, a correction is not unexpected. What did the bears say in 2009 and 2012? I saw a lot of them come out of their dens and prompted were shot back in by two major bull runs.

  18. “Rapidly falling apart” is an exaggeration. If you actually read the VanCity report, it says that rents over the past five years have gone up 11%, while median wages have gone up just 7%. Hardly a disaster.

    My guess is that, on the supply side, there is less rental stock than there would be in non-bubble conditions (with property prices “appreciating” at such high rates, fewer owners can be bothered to rent out their properties).

    On the demand side, there are would-be homeowners who, thanks to the bubble, find themselves unable to afford a purchase.

    Of course, when property prices turn south, look for a whole bunch of owners suddenly jumping back in to the landlord game, with a consequent expansion in rental stock, and decline in rents. Also look for all those would-be purchasers who, as they watch a falling knife, put off their purchases (and, in turn, help to hasten the price decline).

    • I wouldn’t consider moldy dank & dark basement suites as proper rental stock. Given Canada’s economic development, a proper rental stock for working people should at least be something comparable to a good condition apartment / condo and above ground. In-suite laundry should really be included as well nowadays. But I guess if people like to live as hobbits, who am I to complain.

      • Who said anything about “moldy dank & dark basement suites”? I think El Ninja’s point is that owners who’ve left their “investment” condos empty in expectation of future price gains will rush to rent them out once their values start to decline.
        Demand for rentals may well increase too as those who are marginal buyers in the mania can’t or won’t play that role once the market weakens.

      • So then rents maybe increase even more like what happened in US which makes renters & renting bears even worse off. Though, apparently all bears have a huge stash of investments they can cash in with a few clicks of the mouse for down payments in housing crash.

        As for the basement suits, I don’t know what % of total rental stock they represent, but it seems like basements, or similar arrangements (eg. bottom floor of a house, etc) is a big pretty big % still. A good % of those type of rental stocks I would say is not in good condition.

        As for condos being left empty, for foreign rich buyers I can understand. But most of the condo speculators are local and I can’t imagine most or even a good minority of them have enough cash flow to service the condo mortgage & strata without having to rent it out.

      • Yes, one effect of a change in the real estate market may be an increase in rents. (Then again, the real estate market will have changed. Don’t get too triumphant about possible increases in rents without acknowledging the whole scenario.) What’s unknown is how the effect of increased demand might be offset by the increase in supply as, for example, those who have left their basement suites or condos empty now have to demonstrate to the banks that they’re producing some cash flow, as a result of a changing market (and perhaps interest rates).
        As for which kinds of owners are more likely to leave their “investment” properties empty — I’ll be happy to consider any data you can offer.
        As for the significance of basement suites for Vancouver’s rental market — I’ll be happy to consider any data you can offer.
        As for the condition of basement suites — as the builders race to send the rest of Vancouver’s old houses to the landfill, fewer and fewer of those suites are “moldy dank and dark” — yes?

    • I think you missed the point of the article. It’s not the price that is an issue, but the supply. You might not be charged an arm and a leg just yet but hey, good luck finding a rental, especially one with pets. Update on my friend’s rental, they did their first showing, 20 groups out of 40 who replied showed up in the span of an hour, it was worse than the open houses. 10 to 15 applications in the end with many who brought binders of stories of their life. Yeah… life is good for renters, especially those with pets.

      • Did your friend up the rent? Or had an auction on the rent?

      • I don’t know how much damage a well trained pet like dog / cat can do to the furnishing like carpet, etc, but it might be worth if the pet premium is high enough.

      • No, he didn’t auction like that guy in Kits. The unit is really old and not in great condition to begin with. Remember, he only paid like 180 to 190 for this. The tenants in the unit had always had pets. The amount he got was about 200 dollars per month above market at 1250 plus utilities a month for an old one bedroom townhome in the coquitlam burnaby border area. That is actually ridiculously expensive in my opinion. So he got paid premium already. This is one place where cash flow does actually work in Vancouver.

  19. “The survey looks at two categories of foreign buyers: recent immigrants and non-residents. Purchases by immigrant foreigners actually rose to $59 billion from $49 billion, according to the trade group. The share of non-resident buyers decreased to 41% from about 50% in previous years.”

    “While foreigners make up a tiny share of the housing market, they are critical to small, lucrative segments of the industry. Developers are relying on foreign buyers to help fill a swell of high-priced condos coming to market in the next couple of years. ”
    http://tinyurl.com/havnnxb

    • Honestly, as much as everyone complains that everything is so expensive, a 40 year old townhome in Burnaby has performed terribly compared to any measure. It’s not everything is going up like crazy.

    • If one is socking away extra cash in US housing, the cap rates in some university towns are around 7%-8%.

    • Agreed, but how does their property taxes work? I believe US has higher property taxes, especially for foreigners.

  20. David LePoidevin is shorting both Canadian Western Bank and Laurentian Bank, as well as non-bank mortgage lenders Home Capital Group (HCG) and Equitable Bank.
    http://tinyurl.com/hapj75x

    • Thanks for posting – I enjoy dissecting, parsing, and assessing credibility. Does the article pass the sniff test?

      Or, who wrote this garbage; about whom; why? A nobody wrote the article -about a portfolio pimp.

      Judging by the size of the schnozz on Mr. Givemeyourmoneytoinvest LePoidevin, he should be brilliant – sniffing out deals like a bloodhound. So why hasn’t he invested in Vancouver real estate on behalf of his clients and made a killing? Because he’s just a portfolio pimp. The best line in the article is the first one where he admits he’s been wrong in the past. Yes, he’s been wrong wrong wrong. For years and years he’s been dead wrong.

      I wonder what he did with his own cash while sucking up all those tasty management fees. Dollars to donuts he bought himself real estate. Portfolio pimps hate it when other people buy real estate – there’s no money left on the table to play with.

      What about Tweety Bird Rabid Rabidoux – the Bad News Bear. Try and find something about the North Cove Advisors that he is president of – dollars to donuts it’s just him. Spouting.

      The article states that there’s a growing “chorus” of bears, citing the incredible chicken farmer Cajones Cahodes – that makes a duo – add Rabidoux and you’ve got a barbearshop trio. Let’s hear from a credible chorus.

      “Investment advisers” pitch funds – they are salespeople. If they con you into buying one of their junk funds, and you lose money, they still get paid. If any “investment adviser” truly believed in the crap they were selling, they’d buy it themselves. They shouldn’t promote products unless they are also buying – and if the mumbo jumbo crap they sell tanks they should not get paid. They needn’t reimburse for losses – if you’re willing to gamble with turkeys that’s your problem. And if, miraculously, you make some cash, it would be fair to share with the portfolio pimps that purport to be professionals.

      • I went to one of his talks many years ago, at about the time when I started noticing other bank customers came in with suitcases of cash, and I was bumped off my appointments because no one had time for me. They were busy counting money. LOL

      • rod_jonsson_pmd

        ac_dude, whole #vanre episode is so far beyond a sniff test … ppl can deny reality by pointing out it hasn’t gone down yet, rationalizing all sorts of nonsense … but, if you need to wait for price confirmation and it’s big bubble, that will be too late … no one can predict the timing for a big instability … recent eg. what a difference 6 mos makes … 20% turn in bullion, >3X turn in a1 juniors … so many still caught out waiting to get back in … reality is you guys are riding a monster and depending on your situation, there may be monster risks … time to revisit an old favorite … pfffft! … http://tinyurl.com/zelocyp

      • @Arnie

        You attack the messenger, not the message. What does that say about the strength of your arguments?

        Here we have one article – one! – that talks down the market, and you’re on it like a wet towel. If you’re so interested in exposing ulterior motives, why don’t you “dissect” some of the thousands upon thousands of questionable promo pieces written about RE?

        It’s so very clear where your biases lie. And how scared you are.

        As for Rabidoux, he puts out more analysis in a single tweet than you have in all of the reams of jabber you have posted on this blog.

      • rod_jonsson_dude, I am always interested in hedging, and I love to read about the shorters as I’m always on the lookout for insurance. I happened to get a good chunk of GDXJ near the bottom, but of course it’s not enough. I still believe the longterm risk is on the savers and the debtors will continue to be rewarded. Residents who’ve shorted the local market by renting have been burned. But I’m not a bull, would rate the local market as a ‘hold.’

      • “the size of the schnozz”??? A couple of days after you trashed Cohodes for his association with Goldman Sachs? Yes, I think it is clear where your biases lie. What’s next, you drunken, bigoted intellectual pygmy, an “illuminating” link to the Protocol of the Elders of Zion?
        “Dollars to donuts he bought himself real estate.” I don’t believe he did. You have any data? What a coward. I can certainly believe that buying a turd of a house in East Van has been one of the great accomplishments of your life.

      • rod_jonsson_pmd

        @blamblam … good hedge hard to get … relationships you thought should work may not, tracking error, etc. … manage size/exposure is simpler … renters not short #vanre, imo … they just can’t do eyes wide shut … no reward but done right no risk … also, bubble isn’t done hurting participants yet … nobody hits top/bottom, except by luck … then for most, ego to screw them real big next time … if you got GDXJ on the turn, you doubt conventional narrative … not enough probably means lack of conviction … as convert since dotcom, i have plenty of conviction but was unable to get how so many could wilfully deny common sense … pm converts have interesting intellectual challenge … to own means to doubt conventional wisdom … but in the current v warped setup, financial assets are hyper-levered everywhere … so, convention has traveled wayyyyy out there … v hard to doubt just a little … extrapolate your own conclusions … wish all u all best of luck … this whole thing is probably going down … http://tinyurl.com/zynrjbw

      • Re: renters not short the market, tell that to the people that tried to time the market and sold early to buy back on the cheap – outside looking in and not sleeping at night.

        Re: conviction, yes you are right, the conventional narrative is working for me so I need to balance contradicting thesis, not easy…

        Appreciate your thoughts.

  21. Paul Johnson explains how something called “Panda Bonds”, used to raise money in mainland China, could be hurting the local housing market.
    http://tinyurl.com/jrx3wv3

  22. 3549 Haida – listed at $1.049M – should be closer to $1.5M.

    • #TheBuckStartsHere,Or…

      [VanSun] – Douglas Todd: B.C. politicians almost alone in seeking foreign donations

      …”B.C. is one of the few jurisdictions in the world that welcomes political donations from foreign individuals and corporations.

      The B.C. Liberals have in recent years received hundreds of thousands of dollars from offshore real estate developers, mining companies, railways and others. At least indirectly, the B.C. Liberals have even received donations from foreign governments, specifically China.

      The B.C. Liberals allow this practice even though the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development this year declared that foreign donations to political parties threaten sovereignty…

      …As for foreign political donations, it is not only Canada’s federal government that forbids them. So do most of the provinces.

      Dermod Travis, executive director of Integrity B.C., says Quebec, Alberta, Manitoba, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia ban foreign donations. Ontario will soon join them. These governments also forbid contributions from people outside the province.

      The few provinces that allow donations from beyond the country or province have small populations, such as Prince Edward Island and Saskatchewan.

      In these jurisdictions, Travis says a donation of even $7,000 will spark a debate over whether local politicians are being “bought.”

      In contrast, the B.C. Liberals, according to the non-partisan watchdog, have accepted hundreds of thousands from offshore companies, particularly those in real estate.

      Onni Contracting, whose parent company is based in Arizona, has donated more than $460,000 to the B.C. Liberals, Travis says. This at a time when the influence of foreign money on Metro Vancouver real estate prices is a burning issue.

      The Holborn Group and related companies, owned by one of Malaysia’s wealthiest families, has also have given $226,000 to the B.C. Liberals. Speaking of the likely Republican nominee, The Holborn Group is building Vancouver’s Trump Tower.

      The B.C. Liberals have hauled in money from scores more foreign-based companies., including the linked companies associated with: Burlington Northern Santa Fe railway (based in the U.S.); Petronas Energy (based in Malaysia); Kinder Morgan International (based in the U.S.); the Bank of China (China), NBC Universal Media (U.S.); Republic Services waste management (U.S.); Posco Construction (Korea); Thompson Creek Metals (U.S.); Woodfibre LNG (Singapore) and HD Mining (China).

      In addition, Travis says Teck Resources and its affiliates, which are 17 per cent owned by the government of China, have donated more than $2 million to the B.C. Liberals.”…

      http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-b-c-politicians-almost-alone-in-seeking-foreign-donations

  23. Why do people get so shrill – over a shill – with a tried and true record of being wrong for years and years. Drill down into that fact – not conjecture. No doubt they have tons of cash “tied up” in the market.

    That’s how Madoff got away with defrauding “investors” of billions – for decades. They didn’t want to look stupid with real questions. They let their greed override their intellect. They trusted the messenger. Tant pis.

    If you go back six years, with a $100K and mortgage money, you’d have made a small fortune in real estate. With the same cash, and the benefit of listening to this shill, what would you have?

    I guess that’s why you’re so shrill.

    Life in our house, on a super quiet convenient street, with views, and beautiful courtyard garden, hasn’t always been easy, but it’s been great. Even if the property hadn’t appreciated, it would be great. We’ve raised our kids here. Stable.

    If I had been like my brother-in-law, who lost tons of money greedily “investing” in the stock market, I’d also be stuck in a rental in Coquitlam. He thought I should sell almost ten years ago. He’s not stupid – just deluded.

    Do you have paper, or do you have property?

    I’d be shrill too.

    Shoot the messenger? Who is the messenger in this case – is it the shill who provided the story, or the “talent” that wrote it down.

    If you want to reward incompetence, or manipulation, that’s ok. If you’ve been hoodwinked by mumbo jumbo and robbed of your cash and equanimity, yes, you should shoot the messenger. I didn’t get sucked in. Let him continue with his stable of investment ho’s. To return a platitude: There’s a sucker born every minute. So says the portfolio pimp.

    • My calling you out on spewing revolting antisemitic sewage is not being “shrill.”
      Locutions like “scabrous twat” also reveal a lot about you.
      VREAA?

      • You remind me of Lupo the Butcher.

      • I think any impartial reader of our posts can tell which of us is bad-tempered.
        By the way, although this blog is not a forum for people to boast about their investment prowess (in whatever assets), none of what you say above applies to my situation. I do feel for your brother-in-law, though, “stuck in a rental in Coquitlam”; that certainly sounds like a fate worse than death.

      • Not a shred of thoughtfulness in Arnie’s posts. Just insults, bragging, and projections of his own insecurity. Class act!

      • El Ninja, I remembered that in one of our previous exchanges you had coined Arnie’s posts to be “colourful” and said to have contributed a lot to the discussion… so which is it? Is he colourful or…. insecure…. make up your mind man.

      • I said they were colourful–and they are. I didn’t say they contributed a lot.

        After reading his more recent posts, I would add anti-semitic, dismissive, biased, and narrow-minded to the descriptors.

  24. Marc seems to be taking a very significant interest in Vancouver. He has nothing to gain so he states. He has disclosed that he has friends living in Vancouver so it’s not entirely clear if all interests are free of conflict, if we include all factors.

    And FTR is he short something in Canada right now?

  25. Naked Official #9000

    hey did i miss something? is everyone posting here wu mao now?

    bu fucking hao

  26. Chinese are overetaking Canadians as the biggest foreign buyers of US homes, 4th year in a row.

    2016 Profile of International Activity in U.S. Residential Real Estate
    http://tinyurl.com/jc5zt5r

  27. Greater Vancouver ~ population estimates: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 & 2015

    I looked at the City-State where BC Panda Bonds are parked. Their population (citizens and residents) grew modestly from around low 3 millions to mid-3 millions in the past years. However, their number of non-residents has multiplied to a sixfold increase in the last two decades, bringing the total population to six millions.

    That could explain it.

  28. @Canis – Regarding your questions about state of rentals and investment condo owners, no I don’t have hard data. Mostly is from what I’ve seen. A lot of the new houses around my area have basement suites and yes they aren’t moldy and dank, but still very below grade and dark. It’s not my ideal rental if I had to rent, but I would say they are acceptable rental stock. Very pricey though.

    As for investment condo owners, for local working people who are investing in condos, I can’t imaging them able to leave it empty and paying the mortgage payments of $2K+ / month. People are here just don’t make that much $$$. For foreign investors who’s flush with $$$, sure it happens. But by all measures and reports, most of the condos bought by specs / investors are local working family who wants to lever up and get rich through “safe” RE. I just can’t see them able to carry condo out of their salaries / HELOC for long.

  29. I’m noticing a subtle shift in the media re: Vancouver RE. I’m not calling a top, just noting that the dialogue has shifted a bit.

    Near and medium term market trends are explained in large part by group psychology, so to the extent that the media influences the city’s collective perceptions, it could be significant.

    And fear is stronger than greed. Once it bites, game over.

    • I feel the media reporting is positively much more anti RE.
      Take Lynda Steele on CKNW.
      Unlike former host Bill Good, who’s still pushing RE in his retirement.

    • As per The Tragically Hip:
      “When it starts to fall apart, it really falls apart”

    • It bit in 2012, and 2009… was it game over?

      • Apples to oranges. Back then there was still room for lower interest rates, greater household indebtedness, and greater homeownership rates. We’re hitting a wall on all three. And if RE was overvalued then, on a fundamental basis, it is screamingly overvalued today.

  30. every July, bears cheer up because they think the bubble bursts and it’s the end of the world. They dont realize it’s the summer. When Sep comes, bears down their mood again! What a life!

    • Look at the stats. This is not a regular July.

    • P.S. Vancouver is not “the world”, much as the bulls like to think it is. Get some perspective.

      • Don’t look at your fancy stats and charts/graphs. They only make your signing your rent cheques, and bitch for the rest of your life how suck life is.

  31. [Tyee] – How Chinese Buyers Are Driving Up Home Prices: Government stats show foreign purchasers buying up real estate equal in value to all new home construction.

    …”Government data flawed, but revealing

    First, look at the government numbers released by Finance Minister Mike de Jong last week.

    De Jong deliberately directed media attention to the apparently low percentage of foreign housing buyers, even though the statistics came from just three weeks of June data that suspiciously did not include the final day of the month, when most sales go through.

    Nor was that information definitive. The government counts on buyers to declare their nationality voluntarily; it doesn’t consider whether the real owners are using family members or others representatives to buy housing; nor does reveal whether a buyer with permanent residency actually works or pays taxes in Canada.

    These flawed statistics are challenged by estimates like that of the National Bank of Canada stating that Chinese buyers may have spent up to $12 billion on Metro Vancouver real estate last year — one-third of all sales.

    Regardless, the B.C. stats show that from June 10 to 29 the value of Metro Vancouver house sales to foreign nationals was $351 million, or 6.5 per cent of the total of $5 billion in sales.

    The overwhelming majority of sales — 234 out of 284 — are to Chinese nationals. Citizens from Korea and Taiwan were second at just five purchases each.

    If that $351 million over 20 days is extrapolated to an entire year, the estimated value of foreign residential sales would be $6.4 billion, far less than the National Bank’s estimate, but still huge.

    Compare that to the value of new building permits per year in Metro Vancouver — roughly $6.5 billion in 2015, Statistics Canada figures show.

    That means foreign buyers’ purchases are virtually equal to the value of new building permits in Metro Vancouver each year.”…

    http://www.thetyee.ca/Opinion/2016/07/12/Chinese-Buyers-Vancouver-Home-Prices/

  32. Evening Standard’s reporter Cory Doctorow warns of an all-out assault on our housing stock (as well as Seattle, N.Y. And L.A.) in the post Brexit fallout. Hello Russian oligarchs and Arab princes.

    • Yes, Vancouver has tremendous cachet among the global elite.

    • Arnie, you are seriously dethroning me as the most hated bull on this blog. Hands off the trophy buddy.

      Even though the focus has always been on the chinese but there are many other global elites who have invested heavily in Vancouver. Just ask people in West Vancouver how Iranians influence them there. But I note again that no one here is saying the global elite are only in Vancouver, they are in everywhere else too, see New York, San Fran, London, Sydney. It is just that Vancouver is so much smaller than those places. So if we are in the conversation, we are proportionally much more effected.

    • Hey guys, pass the bong…

  33. what with all the stupid bears giving financial advice to others? They can’t even take care of their own. If they are so smart, why aren’t they rich!
    Care to join me at the trailer park?

    • Because they truly believe they are smarter than the bulls and is right! Even when they are wrong, they are really right because:
      1 – they are saving money on rent
      2 – not worry about maintenance and repairs
      3 – freedom to move to better locales for lifestyle & jobs – even though they never move so it’s really a moot point in my view
      4 – take luxury summer vacations to Western Europe so their kids can get exposure to culture (because there is only culture in Western Europe and world revolves around Western European culture)
      5 – build wealth with the difference between rent and mortgage payments and end up richer than the bulls when the house bubble bursts
      6 – they are so good at investing that they can beat professional money managers easily, and they can buy & sell in seconds unlike the home owners.
      7 – Lastly, they are only “wrong” because of: gov’t interference, low interest rate, people are stupider than they thought, locust from China. So it’s not really that they are wrong, just that realty keep getting it wrong!

    • #Surprise!…

      [SCMP] – Leak reveals secret tax crackdown on foreign-money real estate deals in Vancouver: Classified briefing for CRA auditors outlines strategy to tackle suspected tax cheats who do not report global income or who ‘flip’ homes – but reveals that last year, there was only one successful audit of global income for all of BC

      “A secret strategy briefing for Canada Revenue Agency auditors has revealed plans to crack down on real estate tax cheats in Vancouver, with 50 auditors being assigned to investigate purchases funded by unreported foreign income.

      Presentation notes for the seminar, delivered to auditors on June 2 and leaked to the South China Morning Post, show that only one successful audit of worldwide income was conducted in British Columbia in the past year, in spite of Vancouver’s reputation as a hotspot for immigrant “astronaut families” whose breadwinners often work in mainland China and Hong Kong.

      The plans, which come amid a furore over the role of Chinese money in Vancouver’s runaway housing market, were provided by a Canada Revenue Agency employee who attended the June 2 briefing. The briefing is identified as a “protected B” classified document on the cover.”…

      http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/1989586/leak-reveals-secret-tax-crackdown-foreign-money-real?utm_source=&utm_medium=&utm_campaign=SCMPSocialNewsfeed

      • I’m very curious how CRA expects to actually enforce their tax penalty orders against people who most likely don’t even set foot in Canada, except maybe as tourist. If they do arrest people at airports for failing to report worldwide income, how likely are they able to keep the person in Canada and get the $$$?? Can they even lock the person in jail for that?

      • Astronaut families have been receiving “child social benefits/disability benefits/subsidies” (cctb, uccb, autism, adhd, etc??) for their kids. I thought it was all legit until I read a couple of weeks ago that they should not claim these checks and alert CRA.of their offshore incomes.

  34. Back in April of 2015, Laurence D. Fink got press by stating that investing in art, or real estate in Vancouver, and a few other cities, was better than gold. Guess that’s how he got to be the head of Black Rock – the largest investment firm in the world – with trillions of dollars under management. Curious to know what he’s saying now. Is he on the phone to the short and curlies – the chicken farmer; the portfolio pimp; the rabid doom and gloomer.

  35. rod_jonsson_pmd

    bears care don’t scare
    they’re there i swear
    share prayer know where
    ere hair you tear
    🙂 😀 ? :O

  36. zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 1h1 hour ago
    “Soon” And “Really, Really Crazy”: Starting Up The Helicopters

    • Christopher Balding ‏@BaldingsWorld 11h11 hours ago
      China stat of the day: real estate futures delivery market expecting 21% price increase from current levels

    • Meanwhile, over at the world’s second largest economy (some predicting it to be worlds largest in due course …)

      “Chinese growth held steady at 6.7% in the second quarter after a flood of stimulus in the first quarter lent at least temporary stability to a slumping economy. “

      • Sinopec subsidiaries inflated 2014 revenue, costs by $3.04 billion: government auditor
        Twelve subsidiaries of Sinopec Group, have manipulated their financial reports by creating fake invoices of fuel sales, among other discrepancies, the report from the China National Audit Office published on Wednesday said.
        http://tinyurl.com/hxta23m

        Emerging market multinational companies, pathetic transparency: Chinese companies score the worst
        http://tinyurl.com/hf9emjj

      • Capital flight ~ China’s exports to Hong Kong have continued to surge

        “a steep rise (243% from a year ago) in reported imports from Hong Kong has raised concerns that trade invoices are being manipulated to get capital out of the country amid fears the yuan will continue to weaken. ”
        http://tinyurl.com/hmmug53

  37. On June the 6th, the sale of a single family house with 3 garages priced at $1.88 million, attracted 12 would-be buyers. It was located in Richmond Hill, in the vicinity of Bayview and Major Mackenzie, at 66 Hillhurst Drive.
    The highest bid was $3 million, but the offeror did not bring sufficient deposit with him at the time.
    So the bid went to the buyer who offered $1 million over asking.

  38. According to the Globe article, this snout house sold in 2012 for $1.895M. The trickster agent lists it for $1.88M in 2016. It sells for market value. Agent gets a pile of cash.

  39. As a public service, here is a simple truth for the financial boneheads that lurk around these parts, and who think that double-digit prices increases are, you know, totally normal and sustainable.

    Over the long term RE does not, repeat does not, appreciate at a faster rate than the overall economy of which it is a part.

    If you look at Shiller’s 126+ years of data, the rate of growth in RE prices is precisely in line with that of the broader economy.

    If RE were to grow at 10% (never mind 20%+, as in recent times), in just 38 years it would go from representing 10% of the economy to 100%. Needless to say, that would be impossible.

    This is why spikes in an asset’s growth relative to the underlying economy have always been followed by negative, or below-average, growth for that asset; to restore its long-term proportion within the whole.

    In other words, Vancouver RE is toast, and will be for a number of years.

    • Fine, 35% drop take us back to 2015 prices and then it grows at CPI – 1%. Guess what? After 10 years, even if you are calculating it’s real value, it’s still going to be like 2012 prices and still in bear’s bubble territory.

      • Dude. Dude. Duuude. Who said 35%? I’m talking 70%.

        Can’t happen, you say? Market can triple, but it can’t go down by more than a third?

  40. “who think that double-digit prices increases are, you know, totally normal and sustainable.”

    huh?, who said? only the stupid bears claimed it.

    “In other words, Vancouver RE is toast, and will be for a number of years.”

    yeah yeah yeah, vbh said the same, vreaa said the same, vci said the same. Look where it has got you! no where!

    Time to join my at the trailer park and stop bitching!

    • Real estate advice from a trailer park resident. You can’t make this stuff up.

      • I’m in agreement with the Math. It seems infeasible that RE could account for 100% of the entire economy. And even when it does, RE is not considered a “productive” industry — at least not like Consumer Electronics has. Also, after 100%, how does it grow? It must fall back to historical growth — unless we all figure how to fake growth numbers like China has.

        Personally I’ll rather have better, cheaper, cooler electronics than smaller, crappier housing. However, markets are mostly insane these days — and it seems like insanity (or at the very least Abenomics — or other similar philosophies) can run for a very long time (generational timelines in fact).

        Forget about RE, some days I wonder where Fiat currency will be in less than a decade.

        In the meantime, we can watch HK…

      • rod_jonsson_pmd

        keep RE@L, keep eye on ball … i.e. the crazy policies don’t work, yet loonies charge ahead … foundations continue rot, more fragile/brittle while shocks bigger/nastier … brexits only symptomatic … canRE-specific eg. had chance to moderate post-2008 … learned zero from US … participants who should have been wiped instead got bolder … now look where things got to
        @fredo
        geez what a grouch, did mom soil couch?
        fancy you were big RE winner
        bulls seem nervous, angst in surplus?
        sing, ptb please rescue me
        doh! if they can’t will have no pants

      • “I’m in agreement with the Math. It seems infeasible that RE could account for 100% of the entire economy.”</i
        Even if the RE market accounts for only 20%-25% of GDP, no governments want to risk popping it.

  41. Hey, you know what else was considered impossible? Negative interest rates! Go get any financial textbooks that’s printed before 2014, I bet not a single one would say negative interest rate was possible. Now look around, 3 TRILLION+ of sovereign debt is in negative interest rate territory.

    Toyota issued a 30 year bond at 0.1% interest rate. 30Y corporate bond at 0.1% interest rate!!! Meanwhile the ultimate safe heaven financial instrument in the world – the US 10Y UST is yielding 1.5%. Are you telling me that Toyota is safer than US? Or those European countries like France are safer than UST??

    This is economy singularity and just like that singularity in space, normal economic laws do not necessarily apply anymore, and escaping is almost impossible without a big bang event.

    • space889 just went full retard. Never go full retard.

    • rod_jonsson_pmd

      blow-off? … is a world where u pay to lend gonna work out? … u decide

    • They have no option but to inflate. Debt (mortgages) *will* be paid off with depreciated dollars (or else…).

      Truth be told though, I have no idea how this will unfold. So I hedge. Via income generating real estate, gold, and yes, AMZN (no bonds though).

      I leave the predicting and timelines and stuff to the smart guys.

      • rod_jonsson_pmd

        have choice … just say enough already and let it go … but they won’t … when it gets bad enough, someone will take control from them … hopefully someone better but could be someone worse

  42. wpmedia.vancouversun.com/2015/06/11136172.jpg

  43. @El Ninja – 70%+ drop?? Well, the chance of that happen is not 0% but I don’t quite see it as being realistic.

    But if you really believe that and have a timeline then why aren’t you shorting the hell out of it? 70% on a $5M Dunbar house is $3.5M profit. That’s not a motivating enough factor for you to get to work?

  44. @rod_jonsson_pmd – Central banks set the price and negative interest rate to them is irrelevant if that’s what they want to do. They print the $$$, PnL is not an issue when you can print the $$$.

    • rod_jonsson_pmd

      not true … CBs aren’t omnipotent – that’s an illusion … if policies don’t work, market and popular movements will take control … look around, that reality is becoming apparent

      • Who in their logical rational mind would lend $$$ to someone for 10 years to get negative interest rate??

        BoJ is buying gov’t debt, corp debt, and equity hand over fist, they are buying so much that they are literal starting to run out of stuff to buy!

        When you can print endless $$$, prices becoming meaningless and there is no market price discovery mechanism anymore.

        Yes, in theory that free market can’t be suppressed forever, but it sure can go on for a very long time. I don’t know when the breaking point is, but I highly doubt it will be in the next 2 to 5 years. People were saying Japan is going to be break for like what? 20 years now? And that’s 10 years after they started on the ZIRP which has been going on for 30 years now.

      • rod_jonsson_pmd

        wrong – can’t print endless $s … if market goes against u, that craters currency … crowd shows at ur home with rope … will break when things get bad enough … u don’t know i don’t know … look for signs … sure to be a monster tho … btw greenspan … volcker fed had huge cred … sir al starts serial interventions … now busy washing hands … CB cred sinking big time

  45. 925 19th E – built in 1910 on a crappy 2860 sq/ft pie-shaped lot – sold last year for $800K. Offered now by local hardworking renovators and their buzzy agents for $1.5. Renoflation.

  46. 2143 E 32 – good photo with the cranes in the background. That Westbank project on Kingsway is massive – a little city unto itself – used to just be a Crappy Tire.

    • Latest word on the street. CoV out, Richmond and Burnaby in. No vacancy tax.
      And don’t bet on the currency where the gold vault has been emptied out.

  47. Up Up and Away

  48. The value of land sales in 50 major cities in China rose by nearly 50 percent compared to the previous year, to over 1 trillion yuan in the first six months, data from a research center affiliated to real estate firm Centaline Group showed. The sales included over 200 “land kings,” a reference to a plot sold for a record-breaking price.
    http://tinyurl.com/gtbw57f

    It’s déjà vu. Home prices in major cities are at the same levels (or even higher) than prior to the 2008 Financial Crisis.

    source: tinyurl.com/gkorxp3

    • [G&M] – CRA plans ‘lifestyle audits’ in Vancouver as part of real estate probe

      …”An investigation by Canada Revenue Agency into Metro Vancouver’s soaring real estate market is expected to bring under scrutiny people whose lavish lifestyles and expensive homes don’t appear to be in line with their incomes.

      The CRA’s plan, described in a briefing document leaked to The Globe and Mail, indicates that one key area of investigation will be “lifestyle audits.”

      Christine Duhaime, a Vancouver lawyer who specializes in financial crime and anti-money laundering law, said that means the CRA is going to take a close look at individuals who seem to be living far beyond their means.

      “So it’s how come you are rich and famous in Vancouver – but you have no job? How is that possible? So that’s what money-laundering people look for – this out-of-whack spending pattern,” she said in an interview on Friday.

      Ms. Duhaime said money launderers often follow similar patterns when it comes to spending big: They all want the same excessive symbols of wealth.

      “They all follow what we call the same typology. … They all want an expensive Lamborghini or a Ferrari, they want a really expensive house, they send their kids to the most expensive private schools they can get in Vancouver,” she said. “So when you try to find money launderers, that’s what you look for. Who went to the Ferrari shop? And that’s what they mean by the ‘lifestyle audit.’”…

      http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/cra-plans-lifestyle-audits-in-vancouver-as-part-of-real-estate-probe/article30945381/

      • “So when you try to find money launderers, that’s what you look for. Who went to the Ferrari shop?
        That is what IRS and IRA of the world have been doing for decades now. Guess we take comfort in being different.

    • ‘Da Ma’ (Big Mother) investors from mainland China buy big as yuan falls and global economy shudders
      http://tinyurl.com/jc8y3go

      • If I had the money, I would totally take one of those when it goes on auction at EBay again.

      • Remember the two Canadians who lost their heads? RIP.
        The area is infested with human sharks. Some wear uniforms and badges.

        Piracy on the High Seas
        A band of pirates in the Philippines prepares for a raid in the South China Sea in January 2005. Heavy armaments, speedy boats, and small regard for human life made 21st-century pirates a serious menace to maritime traffic.

      • Thank goodness for US Navy Ship patrolling that area and ensuring freedom of navigation!!
        Unless, they are also ensuring freedom of navigation for pirates as well?

  49. Mayor Robertson’s prospective m-i-l, Zhang Mingjie’s trial is on right now on three charges of corruption and breach of trust, involving 360 million yuan.


    • … corruption, taking bribe(s) and abuse of power.

      • AKA campaign contributions & regulatory capture in the West. Cause it ain’t corruption when you pay a few millions $$ to the winning party to pass legislation written by you for your benefit! It’s so much cleaner and better this way as there wouldn’t be this messy issue of corruption charges later on.

      • Prosecutor recommends death penalty.

    • You realized that she was not an elected official nor a politician, but a civil servant. Her ex-husband is described as an experienced landscaper attached to a city public garden under the city’s park board.

      She has pleaded not guilty on all charges, and claimed ignorance of the legal implication of the business document(s) that she had signed. Huh! Would anyone sign legally binding agreements with a private developer, and then hid the legal documents out of reach of the others. The evidences are damning.

      The media visited the house where Wanting Qu lived before she left at the age of 16 for Toronto’s Seneca to complete her high school education.

      • Well there are no “elected” officials / politicians in China. The end effects with bribing electing officials, using campaign funds, to write / pass legislation in your favor is much worse than bribing a civil servant, don’t you think?

        With the civil servant, it’s wrong, plainly wrong and they can be persecuted, their decisions can be reversed without compensation to the private corps, the private corps can be punished.

        With bribed elected politicians, you can’t do any of the above since it is all legal in the law!!!! But the end effects can be much much worse!

      • space889 is a commie, in case y’all hadn’t noticed.

      • When you have nothing useful to say, let the name calling start!

      • It’s up to the judge now. The prosecutor has recommended death penalty.

    • Prosecutors seek death penalty for mother of Wanting Qu, pop star girlfriend of Vancouver’s mayor
      Qu Zhang Mingjie is accused of embezzling 350 million yuan (C$69 million) in a real estate scam that reportedly left hundreds of impoverished farm workers in appalling conditions.
      http://tinyurl.com/hk9rxrf

      • ThePaper.cn, a reputable media, gave an easy to understand.account of the case in clear layman’s terms.
        With all the relocation money for the farm workers defrauded and untraceable, and the culprit in stubborn denial of any wrongdoings, one fears the worst.

  50. A pair of B.C. investors were sued by a Chinese national for defaulting on a $10 million loan. The couple own at least 10 Vancouver properties worth an assessed value of $152 million, including three lots in the 4800 block of Belmont Drive (shown here) in Vancouver that are currently on the market for a combined $68.5 million.
    http://tinyurl.com/j9fc4g8

    • #Ooops,Or… #StrangeBedfellows&TheUsualSuspects,Or… #TheBuckStartsHere?…

      [AllJazzEra] – US goes after $1bn in assets from Malaysia’s 1MDB: US officials allege fund was used as “personal bank account” to buy assets, including property, a jet, paintings and…

      …”‘Money-laundering scheme’

      The complaint, filed in Los Angeles, alleges a complex money laundering scheme that the Justice Department said was intended to enrich top-level officials of 1MDB.

      The fund was created in 2009 by the Malaysian government with the goal of promoting economic development projects in the Asian nation.
      Mahathir Mohamad on corruption and ‘saving Malaysia’ – UpFront

      Instead, officials at the fund diverted more than $3.5bn over the next four years through a web of shell companies and bank accounts in Singapore, Switzerland, Luxembourg and the US, according to the complaint.

      Federal officials said more than $1bn was laundered into the US for the personal benefit of 1MDB officials and their associates.

      The funds were used to pay for luxury real estate in the US and Europe; gambling expenses in Las Vegas casinos; a London interior designer; more than $200m artwork by artists, including Van Gogh and Monet; and for the production of films, including the 2013 Oscar-nominated movie “The Wolf of Wall Street”.”…

      http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/07/1bn-assets-malaysia-1mdb-160720152528792.html

      • “central bank chief vowed yesterday to name and shame other banks engaged in money-laundering after a scandal involving Malaysian state fund 1MDB hurt the city-state’s financial reputation.”
        http://tinyurl.com/z4pxdda
        #money-laundering
        #manipulate currency rates at global banks
        #Libor rigging
        $Gramm-Leach-Bliley, the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999

    • DOJ drops subpoena on Goldman Sachs
      http://tinyurl.com/huubxbg

      • BC’s connection to 1MDB’s missing funds

      • Vancouver is a world-class city now, attracting the Cheng-Cheong-Tjiong(s), the Oei-Ooi-Goei(s) et al.
        Not saying all are addicted to real estate casinos, some merely park their fugly daugter here to net a big catch.

      • 25% sales questionable …..
        US expands Real Estate money laundering reporting
        “U.S. officials are looking more closely at some all-cash real estate purchases in a bid to ferret out money laundering in properties. WSJ’s Samuel Rubenfeld discusses with Tanya Rivero. Photo: Getty”
        http://tinyurl.com/gwk9pzr

      • US expands crackdown on secret real estate buyers
        “The government’s crackdown on anonymous real estate buyers hiding behind shell companies seems to be working.”
        http://tinyurl.com/jnyjdua

      • rod_jonsson_pmd

        if you’re legit, having a residence overseas can be a good way keep $s beyond reach … otoh, if you’re not and the locals decide to move against you, becomes an great way to lose your cache … what makes re $s difficult to repatriate also makes it difficult to liquidate and move … us govt is bankrupt … give them any reason to take and they will … not sure what the cdn govt is doing … maybe deciding how many of their own need to be taken down?

      • Our govt would do the same, confiscate the ill-gotten wealth.

  51. 4365 Skeena – How does garbage like this get thrown up – it’s a bad acid trip. The artificial turf is icing on the crap.

    The kitchens are exemplars of horrendous layout – and the laundry area – only the wolf spiders will be happy here. Horrible.

    This is why Vancouver spec houses get torn down after just a few decades of unhappy use. It’s sad. It’s an insult to ecology. It’s an insult to thoughtful habitation.


  52. smuggler or import tax cheat through unde-declaring the import value?
    http://tinyurl.com/hwetos3
    “a certain brand of ice wine from Canada” had been routinely declared to have cost about 10 yuan. But 375ml bottles of ice wine typically sell for about C$50 (US$38) or more.
    The Chinese media added that: “Zhang” or “Chang” has confessed to the above criminal activities.

    China is flushe with Ice Wine, while LML with hot cash!

    • In case anyone is interested .. “Chinese tourists were bused to the Winery in the LML (read Lulu Is) to pay for their purchase, and they shall take delivery of their goods in China. Sale is also conducted through the internet and sales channels in China.

    • [G&M] – Vested interests will prevent cleanup of British Columbia’s housing mess

      …”To understand why successive Liberal governments acted so carelessly, one has to focus on the incestuous relationship between the real estate and development industry and career politicians in this province. This connection has fuelled the real estate affordability crisis that is transforming British Columbia.

      The real estate industry is facing a crisis of confidence they cannot recover from. The public (voters) have ingrained negative opinions of both realtors and politicians, and the too-obvious links between them. Realtors and politicians act only when they perceive it to be in their best interest. Action today means saying you “hear and care” and then commissioning a study.”…

      http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/vested-interests-will-prevent-cleanup-of-british-columbias-housing-mess/article31070073/

      • [FP] – China enforces ban on original news reporting: Clearest signal yet that President Xi Jinping is aiming at complete control of the media

        …”China’s internet regulator has put a halt to original reporting by some of the country’s biggest online news portals, the latest step in President Xi Jinping’s bid to curb the nation’s media.

        The move, which may force Sina and other internet companies to abandon their newsgathering operations, is the clearest signal yet that in Mr Xi’s China the state aims to have complete control over dissemination of news — just as it did under Mao Zedong in the founding days of the People’s Republic.

        It comes four months after Mr Xi made a highly publicised tour of the three pillars of Chinese party-state propaganda — Xinhua news agency, the People’s Daily newspaper, and China Central Television — emphasising the need to put fealty to the party above all else.

        News platforms deemed to have violated the regulations on portals including Sina, Sohu and NetEase remained down on Monday after being closed over the weekend by the Beijing branch of the nation’s internet watchdog for breaching rules that ban news content garnered through their own reporting.”…

        https://next.ft.com/content/7cac715c-522e-11e6-befd-2fc0c26b3c60

    • rod_jonsson_pmd

      howz life in the land of the sun setting on the flight capital-driven ppty flipping ponzi … what a mess … beware eastside – westside is destroyed … http://tinyurl.com/m6njycp

  53. 4715 Moss St – sweet little house on a 5,000+ sq/ft lot – should have been priced at least $200K higher. The owners got hooked by a forked tongue white Tesla driving scumbag agent.

    • [TheProvince] – Mysterious wheeler-dealer is at centre of a web of B.C. real estate deals

      A Chinese property tycoon linked to a massive banking scandal in China’s industrial north is at the centre of more than $500 million in B.C. property deals, a joint investigation by Postmedia and global due diligence firm IPSA International shows.

      Chinese real estate magnate Kevin Sun — also known as Hong Sun, Kevin Lin, Hong Wei Sun and Sun Hongwei — founded Sun Commercial Real Estate in 2013. In addition to buying and selling hundreds of millions in B.C. property, the B.C. company, which focuses on immigrant investors, has raised over $200 million from investors.

      The banking scandal, at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, started with a $500-million loan fraud audit in Jilin, a corruption-plagued northeastern province.

      “As far as my client knows, there are no ‘Chinese police warrants’ in China for Kevin Sun (under that or any other name) nor are there any RCMP files in relation to same,” Sun Commercial lawyer James Carpick stated in an email to Postmedia.

      But law enforcement officers interviewed by Postmedia say investigations in China concerning Kevin Sun and Sun Commercial’s CEO Davidson Guo are known to a number of agencies, including the RCMP, the Canada Border Services Agency and the B.C. Securities Commission.

      So exactly who is Kevin Sun and what are his plans for Canadian and Chinese real estate markets?

      Despite repeated efforts by Postmedia, Sun would not agree to answer questions about his business interests.

      But a B.C. Supreme Court civil case connected to a South Vancouver property flip provides insight….

      http://theprovince.com/business/real-estate/mysterious-wheeler-dealer-is-at-centre-of-a-web-of-b-c-real-estate-deals

    • “Chinese media reports focus on Sun’s humble background as a HAIRDRESSER whose fortunes abruptly changed around 1990. … Sun founded Jilin Heng Enterprise Group in 1995. He was 27. In a few short years, Sun’s conglomerate acquired a number of former state-owned enterprises, including semiconductor plants and factories that produced tractors, light bulbs and wire, according to Sina Finance and business documents cited by the media outlet. Soon Sun moved into pharmaceuticals and retail chains. In 1999, he founded Jilin’s largest supermarket chain.”

      Hairdressing and duck-farming .. must be great stuff.

      Kim Marsh, executive vice-president of IPSA International and a former commander of a RCMP international Organized Crime Investigation Unit, said at the conclusion of a year-long joint investigation by Postmedia News and IPSA: “This case has many alarming red flags.”

      These shrimps are known as “white gloves”, money-laundering for the very powerful.

      Property documents indicate investors linked to Kevin Sun own or have owned well over $100 million in Metro Vancouver residential property, and some of these luxury residences are linked to Sun investment companies. Land records indicate that over $500 million in B.C. property has been bought and sold through companies related to Sun.

      Additionally, Kevin Sun’s company SunOil has allegedly claimed in meetings with immigrant investors in the B.C. provincial nominee program, to possess over $1-billion in North American oil and gas reserves, according to an action in B.C. Supreme Court.

    • Another Jilin Case With Vancouver Connections
      “Northeastern Chinese of all stripes bemoan official corruption as a fact of life here. Hardest hit has been Jilin province.”

      Shanxi and Chongqing are real bad too.
      Click on the respective provinces of the interactive map below, to see the “tigers” arrested since 2014.
      http://news.eastday.com/china/2014zqff/n921267/index.html

      • Chongqing is the capital of Sichuan, add together the sum.
        Beijing has the most number of “tigers”. That’s because the list includes the PLA generals, top brass of state-owned-enterprises, and ministerial officials.

        There is a saying ” the top beam is not straight, the lower beams will be crooked”, which means “if a leader sets a bad example, subordinates are likely to follow suit.” ….. multiplier effect.

      • Tiger, tiger, burning bright
        In the forests of the night,
        What immortal hand or eye
        Dare frame thy fearful symmetry?
        http://oi66.tinypic.com/1oq4gy.jpgtiger

        no zuo no die
        http://tinyurl.com/jbhwrmj

    • Excerpt from Sam Cooper’s report:
      “Since 1994, Jilin Heng Enterprise Group Co. Ltd. and 13 affiliates, used a variety of techniques in conspiracy to defraud banks. By the end of 2002, the Group’s total Industrial and Commercial Bank of China provincial branch loans stood at 2.8 billion yuan” — about $500 million Canadian.
      Reports say that police arrested a number of Sun’s business associates in Jilin. Sun was not arrested and apparently had left China by 2003, Sina Finance reported.

      Singtao captured the gist of this story, with one key information added. BC real estate magnate Kevin Sun had a friend named Hóngshēn Jū, in the same age group as himself back in Jilin, China. Mr Jū’s mother later was appointed a governor of Jilin’s ICBC.

      Just like Shan Gao (banker) and his friends, the Li brothers (bank’s clients). Cosy relationship .. you scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours.

    • [Tyee] – Taiwan Group Paying for MP, MLA Junkets Has Crime Connections
      Security expert says Canadians ‘naive’ in not seeing need for care in dealing with foreign lobbyists.

      “Dozens of Canadian MPs and MLAs have accepted free trips from a Taiwanese business association despite reports that several of its directors are facing legal troubles.

      National security expert Michel Juneau-Katsuya said the case shows Canadian politicians and governments haven’t grasped the need for vigilance in dealing with foreign lobby organizations.

      “A common practice with politicians is not to pay attention to who they are talking to if they seem to be representing a certain group of the population, a certain segment that they are trying to seduce,” said Juneau-Katsuya, a former CSIS officer who is now CEO of the NorthGate Group, which helps companies guard against espionage activities.

      “Unfortunately, the Canadian public and the Canadian politicians in general are extremely naive about those things,” he said.”…

      http://www.thetyee.ca/News/2016/07/25/Taiwan-Group-MPs-MLAs/

    • rod_jonsson_pmd

      saw this too … http://tinyurl.com/hl9yqw9 … wouldn’t say they’re all character residences … but even if only half true, wowsers what a show … use to be supposed to be bpobc

  54. For those of you, our editor included, who have been betting against low interest rates – we are just getting started:

    http://s1257.photobucket.com/user/SeattleSun/media/Graph03_zps75141576.jpg.html

    • rod_jonsson_pmd

      in 30s, system tethered to gold so not possible to print as now and create such large imbalances … wage abitrage via asia keeping lid on inflation so far despite lunacy – mostly exhausted now … bottom line – situation not stable stress getting worse will be relieved one way or another … zirp/nirp CBs last stand … aside, told 30yr tbond been acting up – if it goes … more clown cult for vreaa fan of cash should get kick … http://tinyurl.com/njjzl8p


    • Back to the 1930’s! Makes sense that savers/investors are moving to bricks and motars, logs and shingles, rather than the heavily manipulated markets.

  55. Foreign buyers account for 10% of Metro Vancouver real estate transactions in 5 weeks, government says
    Richmond, Burnaby have the highest number of foreign buyers at 18%
    http://tinyurl.com/jkh59xd


  56. OSFI tells some banks to test for sharp drops in Vancouver, Toronto housing markets
    Financial institution watchdog says the banks should stress test for 40-50% drop in housing prices
    http://tinyurl.com/h9zhj6t

  57. 3297 Matapan Crescent: sold in 2007 for $738K.

    Sold in 2015 for $1.06M – a gain of $322K in 9 years.

    Just listed again at $1.755M – a bump of $695K in 1 year 4 months – that’s upticks of over $43K/month. Try getting that in the stock market.

    • There’s a difference between list and sale, you know.

      The stock market, over the long term, has compounded vastly, and I mean vastly, more wealth for small investors than has Vancouver RE. You are looking at a fruit fly span of time — so brief as to be utterly meaningless.

      • And yet, I know very few people who actually managed to take advantage of this wondereous wealth making money and actually became wealthy from investing.

  58. This thread is seriously getting stale. Government finally decided to do something after discovering that 1 billion dollars or about 10% came from direct foreign buyers. 15% PTT will hurt, but I guess the liberals had to cave into the pressure at some point. Though this tax has “more leaks than the iraqi navy”. I am guessing that no one has a PR proxy in Canada right?

    • rod_jonsson_pmd

      tax is weak but symbolic … libs had to try but too late … plebs to boot them soon … next govt to be less friendly and more expensive to buy … also if it’s pure bank fraud in ch with proceeds to flip cdnRE, neither ch nor feds want that … they’ll find a way to kill it

    • Conveyancing business is scurrying to beat the deadline of August 02. One buyer gave up the time-consuming mortgage-loan application from a local bank, and had his parents wired him C$2 million within a 24hour period.

      Already, the next markets to conquer outside the boundary of Metro Vancouver, are in the game plan.

      wrt using proxy buyers, mingpao has an interesting article on this topic, quoting the Chinese idiomatic saying of “shàng​yǒu​zhèng​cè​, xià​yǒu​duì​cè”, meaning “The higher ups have policies while the lower downs have their own ways of getting around them.” There will always be some monkeys bent on circumventing the laws.

      • How is that any different than the way it has always worked? What do you think the virgin islands are for?

      • rod_jonsson_pmd

        totally stocked on prime cognac and cheap popcorn … let’s see how serious higher ups on both sides want to be … not virgin islands tho … got 35M ppl and a real economy trying to do stuff … there’ll be some resistance when fraud flight capital and flipping f#%*$ stuff up too much

  59. I suspect the sale price will be higher than list because of the location – because it has what Chinese call the Big Hall effect – Falaise Park as your back yard.

    Some make money in the stock market – most get screwed.
    You can’t live in your stock market gamble.
    Your gains, if any, are heavily taxed.
    If you borrow on margin you can be triple screwed.
    I like what Cohodes said about the NYSE: “They’ll list a goat.”
    To which I’d add: Suckers will still buy a billy and try to milk it. The NYSE pranksters have a good chuckle over this. “Look at that sucker trying to milk the willy of the billy.”

    The goat likes it but look out for that butt.

    If I were a foreign buyer, I’d switch my strategy from buying ready-made upscale to scrapers and renovation properties. Let’s say I have $3M to throw down – that’s an extra $450K in tax. I’d be more inclined to drop $1.5M on something improvable – that would leave $225K to use for reno, or as a downstroke on a new build.

    • If you lack the emotional discipline to remain invested in the stock market despite the downturns, sure. Or if you buy goats, instead of a broadly diversified ETF or index fund, yeah. Or if you buy on margin. You’re a fool, and there’s no helping you.

      But if you have been patient and you have diversified, you have made much, much more money in equities than in RE — despite the taxes. That’s just a fact.

      Household debt is at an all-time high. Families’ net worth is piled into a single asset. Multiple properties, rampant flipping, shady borrowing. No investment analysis whatsoever. Massive delusion as to the relative attractiveness of Vancouver. The list goes on. Now THAT’s gambling.

      • Question, how many people do you think have the emotional fortitude to do that? Just curious. Is the average Joe more likely to hold his residence in a downturn or his stocks?

      • Not the point. The point is which is the more-productive investment vehicle.

      • Btw, your home is NOT an investment. This is lost on almost everyone. But then again, most people are financially illiterate.

        http://www.moneyunder30.com/why-your-house-is-not-an-investment

      • Who is the turkey that set up the money under 30 blog? Looks like it’s the same guy that’s the “staff writer” – puffing himself up like a blowfish or frilled lizard to look bigger.

        A nobody trying to make a buck off financial products. Probably lives in his parents’ basement. Probably sells insurance. Credibility – zero. Drivel.

      • Wait, what? That is not the point? That is the point. This is why economists are so bad at predicting market behavior. You can’t come here and say yeah… this is better but almost no one has the fortitude to ride it out. Socialism is awesome in principle but when human greed and emotions get involved, it all goes to shits. I have a question, how many people do you know who have financial investments that they made prior to 1990 that they still hang onto it today? Compare that to the number of people who have held onto their homes for say 26 years. Gurantee you the number of people who held onto their homes is bigger.

        Your home is not an investment, sure that makes sense if you want to use those parameters. But you know what else your home is not? A taxable entity.. the kind that exempts you from capital gains.. yeah.. that might make a difference on about one million dollars of capital gains.. only about 25% or 250K.

      • Your home is only an investment if one of the following corollaries apply:

        1. You rent out a revenue generating suite.
        2. You borrow against your house at low interest rates and re-invest into another asset that pays a higher dividend.
        3. You go to the bank to borrow money and they request a list of assets and the underlying debt against each.
        4. You have children (or nieces and nephews) and intend on bequeathing your house to them when you pass.
        5. You intend on downsizing to a more modest residence (or locale) when you reach retirement age.
        6. You vacate your residence for stretches of time to travel and rent the premises (AirBnB) in your absence.
        7. Your house is paid off and provides you with a very tax efficient resident in which to spend your lower income retirement years.

        Otherwise, you correct, your home is most definitely NOT an investment.

        I made a list! Am I a financial advisor/blogger now?

      • Question for the masses? Is there a difference between investment and wealth generator?

      • Character assassination doesn’t cut it, Arnie. Weak.

      • Why don’t you rebut the actual arguments presented? C’mon. Double dare. Oh, what’s that? You can’t? Yeah, thought so. You antisemitic POS.

  60. 3312 Church St. – shock and awe renoflation – and somehow it has sprouted an extra 645sq/ft. Must be one of those hyperbolic head thumper attic jobs.

    Bought Mar. 2015 for $846K.

    Now listed at $1.868M.

    Blame it on those foreign investors. Not.

    Busy local bees they are.

    Agent proclaims it’s a MUST-SEE!

    Neighbours in this cruddy area will be over this like flies on dung.

    • A friend’s dad sold his for low 800+s a couple years ago and the old man is kicking himself now.
      His location was much better, next to a park and further away from Kingsway. Whether a house is an investment or just a living space, people have awaken to the reality that their homes are the new currency. Sad but true.

  61. 1722 E 5th renoflation: 1912 house – Bought May 2015 for $850K.

    2500 sq/ft lot with a view of the Canada Post parking lot and a car repair station. Fascinating.

    Yours for $1.699M – if your daddy’s rich.

    There will be sandwiches and drinks at the open. That’ll make all the difference.

  62. 3240 E 6th: Bought in April 2015 as a scraper for $860K.

    Now has a new house with two basement suites and a laneway.

    Fully staged for you: $2.299M.

    If someone has that kind of scratch, why would they want the extra illegal suite? Depressing.

    I wonder if this is sold as a primary residence with no capital gains tax?

  63. @El Ninja – You know what else is even better than stock market for generating risk adjusted returns and wealth building? FX Trading in its various forms with some strategies that will generate a Sharpe ratio of close to 1, while S&P500’s Sharpe ratio is under 0.50. By your reasoning, people would all jump into FX trading cuz it’s so much better.

    Stock market is really no better than housing market. If a significant people decides to cash out, guess what? Prices crashes faster than you can say WTF??

    And frankly, if something is supposedly great but few people can take advantage of it then it’s really not that useful.

    This really reminds me of those arguments about German tank’s superior engineering vs Soviets rudimentary primitive T-34s, or the Japanese marvelous engineering of Zero’s cockpit air seal vs American’s brute force approach, or the US astronaut’s $100K+ space pen vs the Soviet Cosmonaut’s good old pencil. In the end, the rudimentary primitive T-34 and the brute force approach wins out, even though they are both considered to be bad.

    • Quantity is a quality – the Soviets pumped out those tanks while the Nazis strove for perfection. Perfection, in infinite time, loses wars.

      And don’t forget the Kalashnikov. You could drag it through the mud and it would still cut someone in two – a sloppy weapon that illiterates could take apart and put back together. It didn’t jam.

      • T52 was superior than Panzer, if not for Stalin’s undoing killing his own generals.
        Quantity is a quality

    • Buy a trading seat and then buy and sell forex anywhere from the comfort of your home.

  64. Personally I think the 15% foreign national tax might generate some short term disturbance but likely not doing much. We have to wait until maybe the Oct golden week to see if it had any real effects. The best or worst part about it is that it doesn’t actually even affect the true foreign capital – the buyers of those $3M+ Van West houses that every bear think they deserve on their median income. Cuz a lot of those are bought by “locals”, not actual foreign nationals.

    but whatever, those bears over VCI are beside themselves in orgasmic euphoria over this announcement, and think that this is IT. This is the straw that will break the camel’s back and they can crawl out of their basements and buy those Van West houses while giving the yellow dude a good kick in the crotch so they know where their place is.

    When this doesn’t work? Well, I guess they can always go back to blaming the locusts and corrupt politicians.

  65. @El Ninja – So I guess maybe you missed your chance to cash in on your house price drop prediction? 30%+ drop in 4.5 years?? I guess you are making too much $$$ that a potential easy $1.5M+ gain per Van West SFH is simply not worthy your time?

  66. 3207 Garden Drive – a peculiar mutant – a laneway tail wagging the dog of a house.

    A 68-year-old house with a supposedly high-end 1,086 sq/ft laneway. I’d measure that carefully – surely they wouldn’t be including the “garage” in that calculation.

    At $2.498M, I hate to say it, but it’s pretty good value in this market @ $360.00 per sq/ft with the improvements on this 6944 sq/ft lot with Trout lake adjacent. That’s rare.

    Doesn’t turn my crank – I don’t like being that close to sea level, or the proximity of the baseball field, and plethora of dogs – but someone will lap this up.

  67. 1595 35th ave E – I find this listing fascinating. It was bought for $360K at almost the same time and price as the old house we have – literally just days and $5K apart. That’s over 11 years ago.

    BC assessment gives the value of the house as $23.5K – well into scraper territory with 3 bed/1bath. The footage is given as 1,167. The agent lists the footage as 1,935. It has sprouted an extra 768 square feet plus two suites generating $1,350/mo.

    Where did those extra feet come from – must be creeping deck syndrome: walls go up around the deck; it gets a roof; and a list price of $1.788M.

  68. Price has dropped to $1.65M after the open house – $138K down in one day. Get the news teams. The market is collapsing.

    Just another slimeball agent buying a listing and making the owner look stupid.

    • 1595 35th ave E
      a list price of $1.788M – dropped to $1.65M

      That’s 8% drop in one day. Too early to tell. I read somewhere that after Australia introduced the foreign buyers stamp duty, the house prices yoy still increased; that’s why they had to up the rate a second round this year.

      • The list price should have been south of $1.5M. It will sell, but if it achieves $1.4M the seller should be happy, but not as ecstatic as the agent that gripped his nuts with the bogus list price. Gotcha. Gimme my commission.

    • [G&M] – Vancouver has little room for renter families: In a city with among the lowest rental vacancy rates in Canada, families who are struggling to find large enough apartments fare even worse, reports Andrea Woo

      …” For many young families, finding a suitable rental home in Vancouver’s tight rental market is a frustrating process. The City of Vancouver’s overall rental vacancy rate is among the lowest in Canada, at just 0.6 per cent, while rental rates are among the most expensive – and the majority of apartments are one-bedroom units. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., two-bedroom units make up just 16 per cent of all purpose-built rental units in the city and three-bedroom units less than one per cent. In 2011, the most recent census year, about 16 per cent of households in the City of Vancouver that rent had children and 20 per cent of renter households had three or more people, according to data compiled by CMHC.

      In Toronto, by comparison, larger apartments make up a considerably larger proportion of the rental stock, with two-bedroom units making up 41 per cent of the total stock and three-bedrooms making up about 10 per cent.

      A recent survey by the City of Vancouver found that an eyebrow-raising 58 per cent of families said they were likely to leave the city in the next three years. Mr. Langman and Ms. Pinillos figure they will probably be among them. “We’re trying to make it work,” said Ms. Pinillos, 34. “But I feel like eventually we’re going to end up somewhere else.” …

      http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/families-particularly-vulnerable-to-vancouvers-tight-rentalmarket/article31222332/

    • That is a great capture.

  69. Detached home sales for July 2015:
    Richmond: 218
    Burnaby: 153
    Vancouver West: 155
    Vancouver East: 149

    2016, July 11 to 31
    Richmond; only 40 detached home sales
    Burnaby: 30 sales
    Vancouver West: 38
    Vancouver East: 34
    http://tinyurl.com/jt78sow


  70. Real estate and financial services now account for 20% of our economy.
    http://tinyurl.com/hcubpqq

  71. Markets beware as CBs admit defeat

    • rod_jonsson_pmd

      things eventually do have to make sense again … growth has stalled and there will be none lending at -ve real rates … -ve nominal rates are just trades front-running the CB bid for scraps … we’re choking to death on stuff that doesn’t work – all of which needs to get purged, with prejudice … CBs can let it go for mass defaults … or monetize, hope for orderly devaluation (good luck!), for different kind of mass defaults … probably get some combo thereof

  72. http://tinyurl.com/h8vgfxs
    Kirkland’s proposal of making QIIP immigrants submit Canadian tax returns in Quebec, declare all global income, or lose their C$800,000 is plausible.

    However, the amount is more like a one-off payment of C$200,000 to C$250,000. They’ll just tell Quebec, “keep the change.” And then fly in to Vancouver and promptly outbid the others by at least a million dollar on a $3-million house.

    • Come to think of it, The investors group in the “Quebec program must intend to live in Quebec,”

      They must have signed this form too.

      But afterwards, they unceremoniously told the Quebecois, “tant pis et je m’en fou!” … ” je m’en vais!”

    • Now they are at least going after the root cause of the issues. That is impressive work finally.

  73. A couple from China, who flourish in real estate in the USA, Asia and China, funded $1.3 million to Jed Bush’s presidential campaign.
    http://tinyurl.com/hbypz92

    They reportedly live in Singapore as permanent residents and are real estate developers, with Neil Bush (younger brother of former US President George W Bush) as the Chair of SingHaiyi Group (Singapore-based developer, formerly known as SingXpress Land).

    The internet is spiked with tales of a certain namesake from the same village of Swatow (China) being the mastermind of a humongous smuggling ring caught with some being let off lightly or scotfree.

  74. corrupt high-ranking military officials – 2 more down
    http://tinyurl.com/gplvbxb

    the Bay Area, Keith Green’s murder case two months ago
    one of the suspects, ex-gf and mother of the 2 kids of the murdered man
    described here as related to the above-mentioned General Li
    apparently this general is her uncle and the brother of her mother, a real estate developer/investor in the US and China.
    http://tinyurl.com/hy8t5ov

  75. Only if the policy makers helped the people who voted them into office.

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