For the CMHC, ‘Slowdown In Housing Market’ Means ‘Going Up At A Slightly Slower Pace’

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. has finally determined that Vancouver’s real estate prices are “overvalued”. The housing corporation has consistently refused to peg the sky-high housing market on the west coast as excessively frothy or due for correction. It contends that underlying fundamentals justify and support Vancouver’s crazy housing prices, and earlier this week, CMHC officials asserted the region offers a range of affordability in its housing stock.  …

Interest rates, and thus mortgage rates, are expected to start rising in late 2016, “contributing to a modest slowdown in housing markets”.
Note the adjective “modest”. CMHC explains: “Underlying fundamentals suggest that the demand will be well supported going forward (with sales) likely to retreat slightly to still-elevated levels, while prices are expected to increase at a slower pace over the forecast horizon.”
So, housing prices that have grown by 9.2 per cent this year are expected to increase only by three per cent next year, and 2.1 per cent the year after.

Barabara Yaffe, Vancouver Sun, 3 Nov 2015

After 15 years of almost uninterrupted bull, few are ready for even the slightest pullback in housing prices in Vancouver. – ed.

6 responses to “For the CMHC, ‘Slowdown In Housing Market’ Means ‘Going Up At A Slightly Slower Pace’

  1. I love how they offer decimal-point specificity for nationwide prices two years out. It’s just pulled out of thin air.

    Also note the soft and fuzzy language, as usual: “still-elevated” (instead of “lower”), and “retreat slightly” (instead of “fall”). And how about “evolve in a constructive way”? What does that even mean?

  2. Pulled out of thin air? I was going to suggest it was pulled out of somewhere else….

  3. CMHC has some decent research going on, as much as it is painful, it doesn’t hurt to read their local publications in depth. I don’t think it is entirely speculators, rich immigrants/foreigners, and low interest rates with associated debt.

  4. I’m with these guys…. 😀


    Loading Canadians up with debt and having the tax payer on the hook since 1946.

  5. Look out Vancouver, Canmore is catching up!

    Canmore in a housing ‘crisis’ with average home price hovering near $998,000

    • That’s a whopping 5.5% compound annual return from where Canmore prices were 15 years ago. Worse than government bonds–and that’s not even counting property taxes, maintenance, and insurance costs.

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