And The Beat Goes On…

Stephen Poloz says up to 30% overvalued housing big risk to economy
CBC, 12 Dec 2014

‘It’s like a ghost town’: lights go out as foreign owners desert London homes
The Guardian, 25 Jan 2015

Great jobs, cash in hand, but no chance in hot housing market
The Globe and Mail, 19 Mar 2015

Vancouver home buyers unfazed by skyrocketing prices
Vancouver Sun, 3 Apr 2015

Prognostications unchanged.
Keep well, all.
Comments only despammed intermittently.
– ed.

41 responses to “And The Beat Goes On…

  1. #Seriously… #LikeIHadAChoice,IllustriousEd?….

  2. Randy Randerson

    And you’re immortal, until you die.

    • #Sublime!”TheShipWhoSang”,Or… #JustLikeOtherTwistsInTime,Sometimes… #”ByPledgingOurFriendships”… #”WeMakeHistory”…

  3. Go Poloz, go! ;P

    ………………………………………..
    “US dollar is a Dying Dynasty”

    “The US has enjoyed, and abused, the privileges of controlling an unchallenged world reserve currency since Bretton Woods in 1944. However, the days of exporting its debt and inflation to countries around the world, which have pegged their currencies to the dollar, may be numbered. The days of other countries blindly following the Fed down the QE and ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) primrose path is coming to an end as the new normal in an ever increasing China-centric global financial system begins to take shape”

    PINNACLEDIGEST.COM

  4. CanuckDownUnder

  5. YVR Housing Analyst (@YVRHousing)

    “There’s no shame in overpaying”

  6. These aren’t 20-someting drivers racing their lamborghini and ferrari down the end of the tunnel. However, the intent is equally counterproductive and self-handicapping. This one beats the Sino-Forest narrative, imho. The summary:

    2012 August 16 – New York Supreme Court Judge, Carol Edmead ruled that short-sellers’ opinion was a freedom of speech, protected by the United States Constitution.
    B.C. Silvercorp lost (round one).

    2012 December 28 – China–born Canadian, Kun Huang (Ken Huang) was taken custody at Beijing International Airport before he could board a flight.
    B.C.Silvercorp won (round two).

    [2013 January 02 – “Silvercorp hit with class-action suit over allegations of financial misconduct in China.” – Financial Post]
    [2014 – “Sivercorp spent US$14 million to settle a class action fraud lawsuit.” – FP 2015 April 18]
    B.C. Silvercorp lost (round three).

    2013 June/September – Kun Huang was formally charged of criminal defamation and convicted to a 2-year jail sentence.
    B.C.Silvercorp won (round four).

    2014 July – Huang was released and deported.

    2014 August 21 – “Canadian stock researcher sues Silvercorp over ‘false imprisonment’ in China in claim that reads like a spy thriller.” – Financial Post

    2014 August 28 – “In China, detecting fraud riskier than doing it.” – The New York Times

    2015 April 15 – “BC man wins right to sue Canadian mining company he says conspired to falsely imprison him in China.” – National Post
    B.C. Silvercorp lost (round five).

    To Be Continued.
    ~ o0o ~

    Although not mentioned in our media, another victim is Kun Huang’s Chinese colleague, who pays the price for researching a NA-listed company’s true state of affairs inside China. Wei Haizhang has been on the run since.
    A source tagged it at several hundreds of analysts being arrested since May 2012, while investigating US-listed Chinese companies, or performing due diligence on multinational enterprises in accordance to foreign bribery laws.

  7. My sister’s house, in Surrey, had its assessed value drop from $696,000 in 2013 to $609,000 in 2014.

    • YVR Housing Analyst (@YVRHousing)

      That doesn’t sound good. I hate to put it out there, but parts of Vancouver (CMA) have demonstrated what I like to call a “soft landing”. Don’t tell the owners about how much $ they could have made indexing either bond or the stock market in the meantime.

      Detached housing closer to the city core, OTOH, well, has seen a very good return indeed. I’m sure future gains will continue! 🙂

  8. Well, since I last posted, it appears that the single family homes that I had been following have appreciated by about 15 percent. What is worse is that they are all subjects of intense bidding. If the calls of soft landing are correct then the maximum these guys would drop to are in fact their value a few monthes ago. Not to mention that I don’t even see this happening. The issue is that there is way too little supply. Any SFH on the eastside have a dozen offers from cantonese families whose kids need to get married. Now house purchases in Vancouver, like it is in hong kong, are entirely family affairs whereby the parents assist the kids. This is the norm now in Vancouver. Without parental assistance you will not be able to afford a SFH. Unfortunately this city is 43% asian descendents and every asian culture and some western ones here actually preaches this type of assistance. I don’t see an immediate end to this. The latest one I saw had 19 offers and this means 18 other families are still looking. I can’t think of 18 SFH’s in the area to sell to these guys. And this doesn’t include the families who wanted something else.

  9. “singer Wanting’s mother, Zhang Mingjie, arrested a year ago on corruption charges;
    Qu Qu Wanting and father hadn’t visited her in jail.”
    http://tinyurl.com/lpy2to8

    • Vancouver Mayor has remarried. His mother-in-law is in jail on corruption charges.
      http://tinyurl.com/pqvzvdu

    • Details of Zhang Mingjie’s (singer Qu Wanting’s mother) corruption case has surfaced. Rather convoluted, so instead of bending arms to scratch one’s nose, here is the gist. It involves some arable land being sold to a property developer at a fire sale to be developed into a residential area/town. Zhang’s brother, her nephew and a chum-buddy hold key positions in the said property development company. How the agriland transpired to a marketable project through a labyrinth of bureaucratic channel is beyond my grasp.

  10. According to dwnews, not listed in the recent “100 most-wanted” list are some heavy-weighed foxes including Margaret Jia (aka Jia Xiaoxia) who participated in the packaging of the $4 billion oilsands projects, that will cost CNPC a further $30 billion minimum in the coming 10 years to bring any production to fruition. Calberta’s economy profits from stinky cash, and Jia can hide indefinitely.

    Unlike countries that block it as classified information, Australia trails many of the ill-gotten cash to their real-estate. However, there are posts online that said Jia bought her son his first house in Canada before he was 20 years old, and he owns 2 cars.
    http://big5.backchina.com/news/2015/04/07/355682.html

    • Margaret JIA & John JIA

      • Just got wind of the news that Margaret Jia has returned to China and will be turning crown witness at the coming trial of the former Security Chief (her younger sister’s husband).

      • Margaret JIA, former GM of CNPC International (Canada) Ltd, “has struck a deal to turn state’s evidence against the former member of the Politburo Standing Committee in return for a lighter sentence for herself as well as for her sister.”

        “The website of Hong Kong’s Phoenix Television recently linked Jia Xiaoxia — also known as Margaret Jia — to a shady deal in which the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) — the state-owned oil giant headed by Zhou in the 1990s — spent CAD$4 billion (US$3.3 billion) to acquire two Canadian oil sands projects that will require an additional CAD$30 billion (US$24.7 billion) investment over the next decade. The major beneficiary of the deal is said to be the Zhou family, which according to a Wikileaks cable is believed by the US government to still control the interests of China’s lucrative oil industry.”
        http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20150503000139&cid=1101
        ………………………………………………
        say a modest 10% of CAD$3-4 billion each year for the next 11 years …..
        it might just keep Vancouver real estate hot and sizzling.

  11. #Oooops… #NoMoreKaChingForCheng,Or… #IsThatARedNoticeOnYourFile?…

    [SCMP] – Major Vancouver property developer is a Chinese corruption suspect wanted by Interpol: Michael Ching Mo Yeung is wanted for alleged graft and concealing and transferring illegal gains

    …”Cheng Muyang, a permanent Hong Kong resident, fled from the mainland to the city in 2000. He left Hong Kong for Canada in the same year, according to the CCDI.

    China only made a formal request to Interpol on August 27 last year to put Cheng on its wanted list, 14 years after he fled the country.

    Cheng was last week included among the 100 international financial fugitives whose photos and details were released by the CCDI as part of the graft-busting Operation Skynet.

    Reports emerged last week that Ching and Cheng were the same person.”…

    http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/1780152/major-vancouver-property-developer-chinese-corruption-suspect

    #BonusZen…

  12. At last, the media put a face to Liberals’ beautiful youth leader.
    http://tinyurl.com/nbtay9r

    Grandpa (Cheng Weigao) was expelled and deposed in 2003, but never went to jail despite corruption charges, thanks to the protection of China’s mastermind of “live organ harvesting”.
    Guo Guangyun, who found financial irregularities and reported them, was the only one being punished, tortured, locked up in jail and almost assassinated.

  13. 2 more fugitives unearthed, this time, in Toronto.
    left( CHEN Muyang, (center) YANG Xili, (right) FANG Cuiying
    Yang reportedly embezzled RMB 470 million (US$75.64 million)
    Fang managed to siphoned only RMB 26+ million (US$4+ million)

  14. Mayor Wanting flying off to Amsterdam for the tulip show?!
    http://tinyurl.com/pn7kayo

  15. just pop by to see what this zoo looks like. where is your 64% crashed prediction after many years, vreaa? is your calculation still ass-chived here on you took it off soon after you bought your place!
    Your blog is so dead now it turns into a Chinese Beauty blog.

  16. Mingpao Vancouver reported that China’s anti-corruption campaign has affected Vancouver. CBSA’s (Pacific regioon) figure shows, from January to April this year, the total amount of undeclared cash confiscated was 1.5x that of 2014 entire year’s amount intercepted.
    – 2015 first quarter, undeclared cash confiscated amounted C$8.2 million
    – 62% more than the amount intercepted for the entire year.of 2014, at C$5,056550

    Google-translate version is here.
    http://tinyurl.com/m8kwlrc

    • C$8 million is a drop in the ocean.
      For comparison purposes, a mid-level manager of a state-run water company once owned 68 real estate properties, 37 kgs of gold bars, and cash amounted to 102 million yuan ( > US$1.6 billion).
      http://www.mingtiandi.com/real-estate/china-real-estate-research-policy/low-level-chinese-official-caught-with-rmb-120m-cash-37-kg-of-gold-and-68-houses/

    • ‘Dirty cash’ seizures on the rise as Ottawa cracks down on money laundering
      May 10 2015
      By: Nicholas Keung
      …………………….
      While observers believe China’s crackdown on corruption in recent years may have contributed to the inflow of so-called “dirty money” into Canada, ignorance and misconceptions also play a role in Canadians failing to declare the amount of cash they’re carrying through the border.
      ………………….
      In Vancouver, it’s been reported that some property buyers actually paid for their homes in cash.

      “It’s a heavy bag, but it is not impossible,” said Gordon. “Some people from certain ethnic origins do not declare their money in possession simply because (they believe) the banking system is not to be trusted and they are more comfortable working with paper money.”

      Under the Proceeds of Crime (Money Laundering) and Terrorist Financing Act, said CBSA, there are no restrictions on the amount of currency a person can bring into or take out of Canada. However, any amount valued at $10,000 or more must be declared at customs.
      ……………………
      http://www.thestar.com/news/immigration/2015/05/10/dirty-cash-seizures-on-the-rise-as-ottawa-cracks-down-on-money-laundering.html

  17. ZHOU Xiaochuan’s (govennr of PBoC) statement at IMFC recently referred. Interesting analyses from various sources. Highlighted here is of pertinence to our real estate market.

    In summary: China’s importers can avoid risks by dragging as late as possible the timing of any foreign-exchange purchases. Because the US dollar against the Reminbi will become cheaper in time.

    If China succeeds in joining SDR, amongst the others China asset bubbles may occur. Stocks and real estate will be discarded by investors, in favor of cheaper and better houses in foreign countries, and cheaper and better quality foreign stocks.
    (see item 3 of source article) – http://tinyurl.com/kbq24tz

    Don’t we just love them foreigner power helping their natives to “sell high their houses”, and then “buy low Canadian houses”. Todate, they still have not implemented a national Property Registration System, and property taxes are mostly non-existent.

    The good people of Ottawa are busy moderating blogs and voting up, down and blocking posters into oblivion. They must think we are monkeys in the temperate rainforests.

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