Still Dead

“Interesting that VREAA decided to drop dead just when the bubble is probably finally bursting for good..”
– Saturno_v at VREAA, 26 Nov 2013

Yes, we’re still dead.
When we stopped posting earlier in 2013, we had every reason to believe we’d be back soonish, but personal circumstances have not allowed.
I’d agree with the commenter above that we should now simply presume the blog to be ‘dead’, until some form of miracle of a resurrection, in which case we’ll start posting again. But don’t hold your breath for this to happen anytime soon. So, presume dead for the foreseeable future.

To reiterate, the cessation of posting here was not the result of any developments (or lack thereof) in the state of the Vancouver RE market: our opinion, that our market is in a bubble and that prices will see very large retracements at some point, remains intact.

Anyway, a good holiday season and All the Very Best for 2014 to all readers. I hope to be back with regular posts one day, but it won’t be anytime soon. Keep well, all.

Holiday Reads:

‘These 17 countries may have housing bubbles. If they pop, God help us all.’, Wash. Post, 2 Dec 2013 [hat-tip El Ninja]

“Yes, Virginia, We’re Still In A Bubble”
business insider
– from ‘The Most Overvalued And Undervalued Housing Markets In The Developed World’, Business Insider, 27 Nov 2013

80 responses to “Still Dead

  1. Vreaa, good to “see” you! All the best for the holidays.

  2. Come any time back soon.

  3. Merry Xmas! This is a fine gift.

    Good of you to address some of the ad infinitum speculation about your supposed capitulation.

    (There it is in black and white, trolls: VREAA is just busy bringing life into the world or preventing terrorism or possibly both. Nothing to see here; move along.)

    Do come back soon, VREAA. VCI is like bread and water and GT is…cannot say for fear of libel suit.

    Missya.

    -BB

    • Libel suit? You got to be kidding. Garth fancies himself the unspoken and unelected leader of the Hells Angels and has been using that as a club to intimidate the political class and others for years. He is a complete freakng loser who knows no bounds when it comes to throwing his weight around and pretending to be some sort of hot shot rider with the power of an organization at his back. The guy is 5 foot 2 with an ego the size of city hall and a temper to match. One day they will lock him up..

  4. VREAA – Best wishes to you and yours, and hoping you have all the support you need for whatever your circumstances are!

    I must say that I’m hearing so many anecdotes these days that I’d overwhelm you if you were back!

  5. This blog isn’t dead, it’s just pining for the Fjords!!

    😉

  6. So you guys have been check here every day too!

    Merry Christmas to you all.

  7. No, but we use technology called an RSS reader with push notifications.

  8. well since VREAA is on a standstill i’ve started a forum where we can all post and chat about VRE. http://www.propertychats.com. there’s no pop ups or ads just clean forum for sharing VRE and anything related.

  9. Enjoy the holidays, vreaa. The latest with Froogle and Froogletta is that we lost our minds and embarked on renovating the final 25% of the house. Because it’s just so boring saving for retirement when you could be blowing money on the little castle, and living off a hotplate.

    • TeeHee!!!

      [WeMissYa, Froogle!]

      • That was actually supposed to start at Clip7… [not 1]… “The Chain Reaction”… [fans of TheBusterKeaton School of HomeRenovations will understand why]… just toggle the CueForward button until you get there… or go to ThePlaylist toggle at UpperFrameLeft, press once and then scroll down to and select “7”…

      • TeeHee alright! That was freakin awesome! Hopefully the Froogster has a little more luck.

  10. Go Froogle go! Take one for the team!

    Best of luck with the reno and have a merry Christmas.

  11. It seems the whole world is going short the various components that make up the Cdn economy. Meanwhile, in fantasy land, REMAX goes all in…

    http://business.financialpost.com/2013/12/11/remax-forecasts-exceptionally-healthy-real-estate-market-in-2014

    Happy New Year everyone.

    • “Nowhere is that more obvious than in Vancouver, where the mountains and the ocean have prevented further growth”

      Guess what, realtors? Vancouver has always had mountains and ocean. It’s called known information, and it’s been embedded in prices from the very get-go.

  12. Seeking knowledge...

    Take a look at this from Jeffrey Olin, a professional fund manager from Vision Capital on RE – especially at the 5 minute mark about Vancouver RE. I wonder when will the money run out. May be never, as long as we keep buying the latest iPhones.

    http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/ID/2423666274/?page=2

  13. pffft! … no blog for old men! … http://tinyurl.com/lkor68a … happy holidays! … bonus tubage! … http://tinyurl.com/lnfjmks

    • Pffffffffffft…. ‘That’LooksLikeThis: http://youtu.be/IjZ-ke1kJrA

      AfterWards?: TheyAllCreepBackToZurich&Yodel… a lot of ‘Yodelling’, as it were… : http://youtu.be/DKB_UnEwAJM

      [NoteToFARCCaptive: Once upon a time… ‘Nem’ used to work, VeryVery briefly, for Henri de La Croix de Castries, 5th Comte de Castries (I quit, natch)… NoS**t. StrangerThanFiction. My duties did not involve ‘Yodelling’. ForTheRecord.]

  14. Talk about bleak…
    http://geroldblog.com/2013/11/24/collapse-update-fall-2013-canadian-outlook/

    (Yes, there’s a component of RE in there… and it’s bleak as well.)

  15. Whipmaster~Kerthwack

    Bleak news should make everyone here very happy.

  16. it’s ok to tell the rest that you are wrong! It’s ok to tell them that you are comfortable in your brand new condo. are you gonna retrace your prediction about the 64.5% correction?
    It’s good to see you are productive in anything else, beside this dead blog.
    All the best to you!

  17. Whipmaster~Kerthwack

    Yep, all the best to you VREAA. And all the best to the rest of the people on this site.
    Whipmaster~Kerthwack

  18. all the best fred… hope u enjoyed your skiing in the morning, snowshoeing in the afternoon and golfing at night, the 3pm sunsets in this high latitude town never stop a proud vancouverite

    • i enjoy every minute of it. thank you.
      how about you? look like you should get some spicy to your life. you sound so negative; whipmaster might know a good therapist that can help change you life around.
      at least, VREAA did.

      • sorry fred, as a vancouverite you’re just not cutting it. if you’re not windsurfing and paddleboarding in between your skiing and golfing, you’re hardly taking advantage of the best place on earth. great trolling though. really impressive.

  19. I miss you VREAA

  20. I am formally declaring this blog dead. Further posting is unwelcome and a waste of everyones time and effort. Without moderation and input this forum is about as worthless as the self gratifying daily heap of insults and shit from “you know who”. Vreaa has obviously caved in to another round oflegal threats from the real estate cartel. Either that or she has bought a condo and can’t admit it!!!!! Either way….don’t bother anymore folks. The anecdotes are a waste of your effort now.

  21. Real Estate Tsunami

    Farmer,
    We’ve only got a few days left until RE shit will hit the fan in 2014.
    Stay tuned.

  22. hope all the proud vancouverites are enjoying the world-class cold rain and 6 hours of daylight ,,,
    the flowers are blooming in California, proud Vancouverites wont like that,

  23. Vancouver’s mickey-mouse economy is the laughing stock of Canada, the little mountain view town has no economic activity besides weed

  24. Yeah, but that w**d is very, very profitable….. 😉

  25. Whipmaster~Kerthwack

    you can’t leave now…. we are just about to start having f.u.n.

  26. Okay… how’s this. When the Chinese can’t get enough of the BPOE… why not just copy it? =b

    http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2013/12/weihai-vancouver-china-brochure/

  27. Vancouver…”the lowest wage place on earth”

    enjoy the 4 hours of daylight , constant cold rain, lack of an economy or things to do , there might be some good things about vancity but can’t think of any though’

    • UBCghettodweller

      Really cheap good fresh veg and fruit from small family run grocers. Lack of mosquitoes… um…. Not shovelling your sidewalk more than a few days a year despite living in Canada… Oh and people who actually have the bodies to flatteringly wear yoga pants!

      Happy non-offensive Festivus and New Years people.

  28. Vreaa provides forward guidance, and while presumed dead, a single ember is seen, fleeting but not imagined, as memories of the way we were start appearing faint on the horizon.

    Is it dawn already?

    It has been so cold I have forgotten what it is

    • Real Estate Tsunami

      The darkest hour is always just before the dawn.

    • Whose woods these are I think I know.
      His house is in the village, though;
      He will not see me stopping here
      To watch his woods fill up with snow.

      My little horse must think it queer
      To stop without a farmhouse near
      Between the woods and frozen lake
      The darkest evening of the year.

      He gives his harness bells a shake
      To ask if there is some mistake.
      The only other sound’s the sweep
      Of easy wind and downy flake.

      The woods are lovely, dark, and deep,
      But I have promises to keep,
      And miles to go before I sleep,
      And miles to go before I sleep.

      Robert Frost

  29. What is doing this in so many markets all around the world at the same time, is obviously “urban growth containment” planning. It is a mania. This is undeniable. Sure, you can blame monetary policy and easy credit and tax policies and government guarantees and so on, but there is so many differences in these things from one country to another. The factor that explains ALL of them is that we have gone nuts “stopping sprawl”. It is not rocket science that doing this will force house prices up and cause housing supply to cease to be responsive enough to keep prices stable.

    The price of most stuff in the world is kept stable because of free market “supply”, we have got so used to this we take it for granted. So we have forgotten what happens when you constrain the supply of something with regulations.

    There are significant outlier examples of disproofs to all the other theories. For example, more than half of all US cities had no price bubble even though they had the same easy credit, low interest rates and all the rest of it. But there are NO “non bubble” cities in Australia or the UK because they are ALL growth contained.

    South Korea has always had INCREDIBLY tough mortgage credit but this has not stopped them having a price bubble, which of course is because they have a green belt Planning policy like the UK’s.

    People who say “it is all about climate and amenity” need to work out, then, why Phoenix and Vegas bubble in price but not Houston and Dallas and Atlanta. And how come California was famously affordable through the 1950’s and 60’s when it was growing twice as fast as Texas is now? Was the climate not as good back then? And how come the UK has had the world’s most regular volatile house price cycles ever since their 1947 Planning Act, when they never had easy credit or low interest rates, and when everyone else was enjoying stable house prices and automobile based development? Even France and Germany and Sweden and other European countries had this, just 20% or so less “sprawling” than the USA at the same time. Not systemically different like the UK is. The UK’s cities are easily twice as dense as Europe’s, which are less than twice as dense as the USA’s and vary widely depending on accidents of history. Every urban area in France outside of Paris is less dense than Los Angeles.

    If you think you have to constrain urban growth to save the planet, you need to impose stiff land taxes as well to keep the land prices from inflating. But you can bet the vested interests pushing urban growth containment do not like this idea. Guess why certain Rockefellers have been major donors to “conservation” initiatives ever since the early 1970’s? They really, really care about the environment? Not their own massive property portfolios? George Soros is another classic example.

  30. FYI, updated BC Assessment data now available for all to view. The values don’t seem to jive with what is being reported in the media (ie. sideways to slightly higher prices). For example, assessed values for Richmond westside addresses have dropped by more than 10%, which confirms what many of us have been stating for many months now. While many (incl myself) do not place a high degree of importance on these numbers, I believe the magnitude of these drops will undoubtedly have a sobering effect on the masses of Gr Vanc homeowners once they read it in black and white. Having said this, I’m sure the MSM will try to split hairs here and claim these valuations were done at the most recent market “low” and that prices have rebounded smartly since the summer.

  31. “I personally believe, that U.S. Americans, are unable to do so, because uh, some, people out there, in our nation don’t have maps. And uh… I believe that our education like such as in South Africa, and the Iraq, everywhere like such as… and, I believe they should uh, our education over here, in the U.S. should help the U.S. or should help South Africa, and should help the Iraq and Asian countries so we will be able to build up our future, for us.”

  32. whats that country proud vancouverites love to slag ….oh yeah America,
    which country produced Steve Jobs Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates.
    hint…..it wasn’t Canada it’s the country vancouverites always slag as being inferior to the perfect Vancouverites

  33. pffft! … vance knows … http://tinyurl.com/oaxlrld

  34. You ain’t the only one….

    😦

  35. The New Season of Sherlock sucks…. Jeremy Brett was the best, bay-bee!!

    😉

  36. Meanwhile… back at ‘that’ place… a ‘PatronSaint’ absolves TheDamned with a few well chosen benedictions…

  37. Whipmaster~kerthwack

    The market is collapsing…up….hahahaha… some downward trajectory.
    More like downward expectorate

    • pssst … print $1T a year will do all sorts of crazy things … exposure to leveraged stuff very very risky … maybe $C goes smoothly to 70c? who knows

  38. “The immediate impact is a heads up to Vancouver real estate agents, who have to expect a reduction in demand for top-end properties… Until the ‘for sale’ signs pop up on Vancouver lawns like mushrooms, then the locals won’t twig to what is going to hit.” – Richard Kurland

    [SCMP] – Rug pulled from under the rich: Axing of immigrant investor programme will likely bring changes to Vancouver, particularly when it comes to luxury home prices

    http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1426636/rug-pulled-under-rich

  39. You mean the cancellation of the Immigrant Investor Program…. that story? Yawn…

    VREAA’s still on sabbatical…. 😉

    • UBCghettodweller

      Probably won’t change much. Remember the market hasn’t been behaving rationally for a decade, you think this is going to change things?

  40. All these bitter people waiting for the market to collapse. What a joke!

  41. It is pretty much almost about all over for Vancouver real estate. The local real estate is still heavily dependent on very low emergency level interest rates to function. With the cancelling of the Immigrant Investor Program, all my Chinese clients whom I’m Chinese myself bought real estate earlier on and have sent their kids to school here as international students, paying lots of money, are still waiting for approval by the Investor program.

    Since the program is now scrapped, they see no need to have property here as they can no longer bring their family here and are now starting to cash out of the real estate and go somewhere else.

    We had an emergency meeting about this. Scary times indeed. Been in this industry for over 15 years and I have seen a lot already.

    http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2014/02/16/21474326.html

  42. vancouver’s biggest head office …1-800-got junk………vancouver is a joke

  43. where u at rusty and fred…shivering in the cold rain

  44. whipmaster~kerthwhack

    You clowns thought the market collapse was a slam dunk so you figured you could bash real estate…..hahahahaha….look what you got….

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