“It’s kinda funny that 3 unrelated Irish blokes all said that this mess in Vancouver/Canada RE is unfolding EXACTLY like the mess did in Ireland, one headline at a time.”

“Been chatting with some Irish blokes who are here working post Irish Bubble. It’s kinda funny that 3 unrelated guys all said that this mess in Vancouver/Canada is unfolding EXACTLY like the mess in Ireland, one headline at a time. Good luck Canada!”
TBWCB at VREAA 29 Jun 2013

All bubbles are alike in essential nature, even though there may be variations in the minor details.
– vreaa

33 responses to ““It’s kinda funny that 3 unrelated Irish blokes all said that this mess in Vancouver/Canada RE is unfolding EXACTLY like the mess did in Ireland, one headline at a time.”

  1. [NoteToEd/DearReaders: “Begorra! ‘N Top ‘O TheHolidayWeekEnd ta’ya.” Take it from Nemesis – who has some not inconsiderable experience of TheLeprechauns… When it come to SudsyBubbles, they really know what they’re talking about.]

    • Nemesis, how about posting less fequently. So far 7 of 16 posts are yours.Very tiresome.

      • This blog is enduring a quiet period, and, as far as we are concerned, Nemesis can keep posting as much and as frequently as he likes.

      • I agree with you. I come here and see eighteen thousand video comments and just walk away. I don’t have time to scroll through that level of chaff.

    • Was that you, Larry? 🙂

  2. Its different here,

    its magically delicious

  3. Working with an Irish guy and he says the weather is about the same also.

  4. Receding Gains

    Coming soon to CMHC and Treasury Board: Bureaucrat Manipulation/Spin 101 – Irish Implementation (incremental creeping losses – boil the frog)

    http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/inside-anglo-the-secret-recordings-29366837.html

  5. Will Chinese real estate unfold the same way too? Their values are approaching Ireland’s at its peak (see charts in article).

    “Saturday, June 29, 2013

    New threats to China’s property bubble

    In late 2011 many were expecting China’s property bubble to burst. It looked as though housing prices had peaked and signs of stress were beginning to appear (see discussion). But the correction turned out to be quite shallow and in spite of China’s government’s multiple attempts to arrest housing price appreciation (and partially succeeding – see post), house prices went on rising.

    With real rates on deposits remaining in negative territory for years, there were few places to turn for wealthy savers. Property became one of the primary vehicles to put away excess cash to escape inflationary pressures. Moreover, municipal governments made large sums of money selling land to developers, while banks (“encouraged” by municipalities) have been happily lending. And in many cases lenders and developers have set up arrangements that are a bit closer than “arms length” (see discussion). Except for ordinary families who got shut out of the housing markets, everyone benefited from this rally.

    Housing investment as percentage of GDP has been growing unabated, and in recent years started approaching levels that other nations experienced at the height of their property bubbles.”

    http://soberlook.com/2013/06/new-threats-to-chinas-property-bubble.html

  6. SundayZen… [of particular interest to BlightyExpatriates – an anti-gentrification polemic clearly inspired by Swift’s ModestProposal, hence apropos]…

    [UK Guardian] – The rich get richer, the poor get poorer and the coalition plays silly burgers: George Osborne’s appetite for posh meat patties clearly suggests sinister links with the fate of the UK economy

    …”The political class live in a west London playground no longer sullied by the unsightly poor, who have been ousted by housing benefit cuts and rent hikes. But where have they gone? And can the right’s sudden and conspicuous consumption of Byron burgers be mere coincidence? Check Byron’s progress on Google maps and you’ll see the shaped-meat retailer’s eastern push follows the line of London’s gentrification, and the enforced economic exodus of its underclass, in a microcosmic reflection of national trends towards the disappearance of the dispossessed. The crushed-beef chain’s surge into once neglected areas like Hoxton and Tower Hamlets, while welcomed by venal estate agents looking for evidence that their patch is up and coming, is bad news for indigenous people. Chelsea types, in their pink trousers and yellow jumpers, are coming, displacing ordinary people, even as they themselves are ousted from the verdant pasture of their own west London homelands by the property power of Russian mafia and wealthy Arab spring escapees. New Byron branches in Manchester and Liverpool reflect similar spurts of gentrification. The rich are eating at Byron in places where the poor once ate at Chicken Cottage, a name I will appropriate for my rural retreat when I too am finally displaced from the capital.”…

    http://tinyurl.com/p3swufb

    [NoteToEd: Small wonder the Irish are clearing out as fast as they can secure their tickets.]

    • http://tinyurl.com/pgbgguu

      [NoteToEd: I would have run that as, “Bogs for Hogs: Luxury Loos Enthrone Lords Atop New Scandal]

    • As a longtime Vancouverite who moved to the burbs a few years ago, whenever I go into Vancouver I notice two retailers that I have come to associate with gentrification: Nester’s Market and Wave’s Coffee. It seems like every neighbourhood that used to be gritty and that has been gentrified and yuppified now has a Nester’s and/or a Waves. Nesters has opened up in the past few years in Yaletown, Main Street & King Edward area, and in the Downtown Eastside at the new Woodwards (also a symbol of gentrification). Waves has opened up in the past few years on Commercial Drive, the Downtown Eastside, Chinatown, and Main and Broadway. Basically, whenever I see a Nester’s or a Waves opening up, I think to myself, there goes the neighbourhood! It’s a sign that hordes of hipsters and yuppies have descended upon the neighbourhood, pushing out the locals who used to eat at McDonalds, ironically while they protest gentrification!

      • 4SlicesofCheese

        My friend was looking into a Waves franchise a few years back, at the time there were two available, Steveston and the Edmonds/Kingsway location.
        I guess it was relatively new back then, but after looking at their financials, only around TWO were actually making money out of all the franchises. Mainly because people would just come in for free wifi and nurse their coffee for hours.

      • What is Nester’s? Is it the same as that Bagel shop that used to be on 14th and Oak? Sorry….have not been there in years but the name rings a bell.

        By the way…..good to see you back again Vreaa. You were missed.

      • Inner America says the same thing about Wal-Mart and Target. Everyone’s in this together!

      • Sheesh, they even have a “Waves” in downtown Poco….

      • @Farmer

        Nester’s is a grocery store.

      • Even downtown PoCo? Band the militia!

      • Thanks Kim. Maybe I was in one once but cannot recall if the name is the same. It was new to me when I was in the city back in 2003. A trendy kind of place on lower Robson across from the Safeway with great coffee. They had the most amazing collection of organic food and imported cheeses I had ever seen. Fairly pricey too as I recall but everything was tip top and the wares on sale included the likes of square mellons from Japan and twenty different kinds of vinegars from across the globe. I figured either they would boom or just bust and disappear……no middle ground for such a store in my mind. Is that the same outfit?

      • Nesters = Jimmy Pattison
        including recently acquired Meinhardt Fine Foods, etc, etc, etc,

  7. It’s the same in many ways, but the data say Ireland has had it way worse. In real terms condos in the Vancouver area are down 10% from peak; in terms of price-rent it’s closer to 15% down. That’s starting to get “correction-y”.

  8. Real Estate Tsunami

    Whenever I here the world “bloke”, Andy Capp springs to mind.

  9. OT… #CouldBeWorse

    If so much as one more RichBoy taunts me with a PantyRemoverFlyPast in his PrivateJet [yes, LarryEllison I’m talkin’ about you and your SIAI-Marchetti S.211 – aren’t you supposed to be getting ready for the Americas Cup or something?] I’m instructing Vlad to activate the S-400’s and ‘paint’ you with the Multi-function radar 92N2E.

    [NoteToEd: The neighbors frequently flaunt their new EC130B4 and it’s getting rather tiresome.]

  10. Curses! Robo. Again.

    • HAL can’t handle creative language, Nem. I got moderated too and I think it is for no other reason than that I used the word “organic”. The computer perhaps thought I was talking dirty and assumed I was just a bad speller!!!

      • ‘HAL’ – hahaha!
        Its methods continue to make little sense. It lets spam through a bit more now, too.

  11. CanuckDownUnder

    These guys could just be some bears from Ottawa having fun.

  12. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme!

  13. chumpay le chump

    I was in Ireland for both the boom and bust and am now back in Vancouver.

    Some similarities between the 2 bubbles-

    Media-Real Estate Industrial Complex- Bank Cooperation

    Similarities:
    The major Irish newspapers derived an inordinate share of revenue from RE ads. The Irish Times even owned a RE web site and prevented web developers from scraping the price changes over time (they turned the entire listing into an image) just to make it difficult for price drop tracking

    Government relied heavily on “stamp duty” (similar to transfer tax) applied to every property sale. Thus, the govt became dependent on perpetuating the bubble.

    Non-stop talk of RE; Dublin full of dbags who had made fortunes in “property”. Scam artists everywhere. I rented a 3bed semi-d in a top neighborhood (Ranelagh, D6) for 2000 EUR a month. When i signed the lease, i asked the estate agent (for some reason i paid an estate agent 1000EUR to watch me a sign a lease) how much the house was worth. He said “at least 1.2m euro”). I said, and they charge me 24K a year to rent it? Why not just sell it and make 5% on the 1.2m?. He just stared at me like i didn’t get it.

    the denial; i was lectured endlessly by co-workers about why i should buy a place in Dublin. Ironically, out of the 250 employees, me and one other dude were the 3rd and 4th highest earners (more than 200K EUR) and neither of us would consider buying a house (or even buying a nice car- why do that in a country with no road infrastructure).

    everyone is coming here!! turns out that Polish workers were building homes for Polish workers who were building homes for the Polish workers who….wait…who is going to live here?

    in 2007 there were 250,000 unoccupied homes in Ireland, a country with 4.5M people.

    Differences-
    The scale was way beyond what we have seen here. The complete lack of regulation in banking allowed the bubble to scale to heights we have not seen.
    Imagine if VanCity had loaned $500M to 10 separate individuals for the purposes of developing property which had not yet even been zoned for development…those were the kinds of loans being made (Sean Quinn borrowed 500M to buy an old hotel in the hope of re-zoning it for a 16 story tower in the equivalent of Shaugnessy). he didn’t get the zoning changed….

    Ireland had banking system with no regulation whatsoever. To replicate what happened in Ireland, we would need to have some major western banks become insolvent, as did AIB and Anglo Irish.

    WHen i left in March 2009, there were 1000 people joining the unemployed every single week.

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