Vancouver RE Crash On Track

Expected weakness continues, sales remain low. Things are playing out as we’d anticipate. Very significant price drops to come (all in all, 50% to 66%, peak to trough). :

SALES ARE WEAK:
“The flicker of optimism that sparked in Canada’s housing market when January sales outpaced December’s has died out, erased by a notable drop in February.
Last month’s declines were significant enough to prompt the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) to cut its sales outlook for 2013 on Friday for the third time since last summer. …
“Vancouver remains the clear weak spot, with sales down a seasonally adjusted 9.8 per cent in February and 29.2 per cent in the past year,” Bank of Montreal economist Robert Kavcic wrote in a research note.But some feel that much of Vancouver’s weakness has played out.”
[hahaha -ed.]
– from ‘Clouds gather over Canadian housing market’, Globe and Mail, 15 Mar 2013

SO ARE PRICES:
“The average MLS residential price in BC was $514,134 … down 8.1 per cent from a year ago.”BCREA news release 14 Mar 2013

INVENTORY/LISTINGS ARE HIGH:
“I’m seeing big increases in New West, North Van, Burnaby SFH listings. Historical highs for this time of year. VW has stalled out; VE puttering along. Condos downtown nothing special on the inventory side. I don’t know what all that means except that our little crashlet is *not* a “Van has too many condos; it’s just condos; houses are safe from all this” thing. It is in fact inventory growth and sales declines are mostly a SFH thing, from what I see.” [price declines will effect all sub-sectors of the market. -ed.]
VHB at VCI 15 Mar 2013 12:22pm

RE Inventory Chart130313
chart care of b5baxter at vancouverpeak.com

HOUSEHOLD DEBT CONTINUES TO GROW:
“The ratio of Canadian household debt to disposable income rose to another record last quarter, calling into question Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney’s assertion that families are listening to his warnings about the risks of borrowing too much.
Credit-market debt such as mortgages rose to 165.0 percent of disposable income, compared with 164.7 percent in the prior three-month period, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa.
In his previous two policy statements, Carney weakened language about the need to raise the central bank’s 1 percent policy interest rate, partly on evidence a housing boom was slowing and consumer debt burdens are stabilizing. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty tightened mortgage rules in July on concern some regional housing markets were overheating.
National net worth rose 1 percent to C$6.87 trillion ($6.73 trillion) in the fourth quarter, Statistics Canada said. On a per capita basis the increase was to C$195,900 from C$194,300.”
[Watch the per capita net-worth plunge with RE prices over coming years. -ed]
– from ‘Canadian Household Debt-to-Income Ratio Rises to Record 165%’, Bloomberg, 15 Mar 2013

MEDIA STILL PUMPING:
“Global TV just ran two RE spots (within an hour of each other) on this morning’s news featuring Joannah Connolly, editor of the highly acclaimed BIV and holder of a BA in Eng Lit.
In segment one, she commented on the 0.1% rise in the Cdn new HPI (for Jan) and implied the housing market had “reversed a downtrend”. She also mentioned the Cdn$ and how “it rose five cents” yesterday. How sad. Colorful, animated bar graphs (a la CNBC) were used in the presentation to drive home the point that home prices are still way higher than they were in 2009. The year 2012 was conveniently omitted from graph #1 so as to mislead the public into believing the upward trajectory is still intact. graph #2 was equally laughable with price chg’s in Vanc, Vic, Wpg and Cda average all appearing to be gains with upward pointing bars.
In segment two, she talked about how hot the commercial RE was, that land was in limited supply and that investors were “snapping up anything and everything”.

– from bullwhip29 at VCI 15 Mar 2013 9:55am

..AND MASSAGING:
BTW, they changed the headline of the Tara Perkins article in the Globe from this…
Real estate market outlook cools as home sales plunge
To this…
Clouds gather over Canadian housing market
There….that’s better.”

– from kabloona at VCI 15 Mar 2013 11:01pm

REALTORS STILL PUTTING ON BRAVE FACES:
“BC home sales continued at a modest pace in February,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Despite improved affordability, many potential buyers and sellers remain in a holding pattern. With pent up demand now becoming latent in the market, it’s not a matter of if, but when home sales rise above their current pace.”
BCREA news release 14 Mar 2013

63 responses to “Vancouver RE Crash On Track

  1. “BC home sales continued at a modest pace in February.” – Cameron Muir

    Translation:

  2. Real Estate Tsunami

    Crash on Track?
    No Sir, this one will go off the cliff exploding on impact!

  3. The reality is, things are not as good nor bad as each report makes it out to be. There are still buyers and the vast majority of sellers are still in the money.

    For a crash or a meaningful correction to happen we need a trigger. Low affordability on its own is not enough. We need a banking failure, an endemic, etc before we see any fireworks.

    When that happens is anyone’s guess. Betting on a crash to happen in this environment is like betting against the Fed, which is akin to David Vs Goliath.

    • Real Estate Tsunami

      BLM,
      You sound like The Tsur.

    • I’m not advocating people to buy property now. I just want to point out that most people are overly emotional on this topic to see reality for what it is.

      There is a slow down, upside is unlikely but to bet prices will crash is as crazy as to bet prices will shoot up.

      • Real Estate Tsunami

        BLM, after ten years of everyone betting on RE going up forever, a bet on RE going down forever is not so far-fetched after all.
        Sooner than later buyers will realize that the Kondo King is not wearing any clothes.

      • Real Estate Tsunami – Prices haven’t gone up in a linear way. It just looks that way. There were slow periods in 2005, a dip in 2008 and now another. Arguably, if fundamentals in Vancouver’s real estate prices were week, 2008 would have been a great trigger for an unwind. Instead, prices have climbed higher since. We must ask ourselves why, given all the opportunities for prices to fall, it hasn’t yet? Simply dismissing fundamentals as unsustainable because ‘I’ can’t afford it is hardly a fundamental in itself.

      • @BLM – Re.”2008 would have been a great trigger for an unwind. Instead, prices have climbed higher since.”
        We discussed it many times here plus former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney confirmed that in his recent interview – the conscious effort was done by the BOC to start the RE going again – easy the mortgage rules/lower the borrowing rate/open investor class immigration – to tap into the consumer spending to keep the economy going. Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney admitted that at the time it was the only way available to hold on and in the mean time to try to figure out other ways to move forward. As of now we spend the future money, borrowed till the eye balls, flooded the country with the investor class immigrants families members (these investor class immigrants successfully managed to offload their liabilities to the system – senior parents on a free healthcare plus the kids on a free schooling) and the mortgage rates are on their historical low – that line of credit is already maxed out. The BOC did what they wanted to and the prices have climbed up as a result of its policies, not based on the fundamentals.

      • Easing by the Bank of Canada in 2008 indeed helped to reflate prices.

        What I’m trying to have some articulation to is why Vancouver’s RE prices didn’t recalibrate back to national averages when it had the opportunity to?

        The BOC’s easing wasn’t directed at Vancouver only. If Vancouver’s values were over-inflated, well, 2009 would have been the time for it to recalibrate to so-called fundamentals.

        What we have in Vancouver is exactly what Hong Kong faces (or Germany in the EU context). Effectively a city-state with it’s own economic dynamics without the tools to control it’s own monetary policy.

        We must remember when the BOC is adjusting rates, it is doing so for the good of the country, not just Vancouver.

      • Real Estate Tsunami

        BLM,
        I can’t afford it used to be a fundamental. Simply reality.
        But during the last 10 years it was. “I can’t afford it, but with these crazy low rates and the banks lending like there is no tomorrow and everyone else doing it, I’ll gotta buy now or I’ll be priced out forever”.

      • Olympic Village’s failure was definitely a direct result of loose US credit (vis-a-vis Fortress and loose credit pre-2008). But what’s your point here?

    • BLM: There is no need for “a trigger” for a speculative mania to implode.
      See: dotcom bust, tulip bust, 1929 bust, US RE bust, all other bubble busts, etc.
      Spec manias collapse under their own weight.
      Those who don’t understand that always look for a ’cause’, both before and after the fact.

      • It’s true the ‘trigger’ cannot be identified until it has occurred. The 1929 stock market crash could have been a trigger. The unrelenting increase of Fed rates in the lead up to the Internet Bubble was another trigger.

        We never see it until it has happen so fine, we might as well not assume there is a trigger for these things.

      • Vancouver Hipster

        BLM
        You could have made the same arguments that you are making at the height of US RE bubble, or if it was all about tulips in a different century.

      • Firstly, the tulips comparison is dated and a pretty poor in comparison. You couldn’t rent tulips out at its height and generate income. Property, at a price will always generate income – whether it covers the liabilities is a different matter. What happened in the US was of far greater scale and much more complex.

        What’s happening in Vancouver right now is much simpler and is the same market dynamic issues that emerging markets face in that ‘hot money’ comes and goes and if it retreats quickly, it is very damaging. Like the Asian Financial Crisis.

        Vancouver real estate buyers (investors) have to ask themselves, do they think money will flow into Vancouver if China/Asia’s economy continues to grow or faces political instability? Or will money in Vancouver retreat the moment Canada’s economy makes a significant downturn?

        My personal view is that money in Vancouver is very sticky so an outflow is highly unlikely. It’s just odd that the money in Vancouver’s bank is disproportionally not earned there.

      • Real Estate Tsunami

        BLM,
        Remember the Olympics, the pseudo world event that shielded Vancouver from the financial realities faced by the rest of the world.

      • Real Estate Tsunami – Sorry I don’t get your point about the Olympics. Smells like sarcasm though.

      • Real Estate Tsunami

        BLM,
        I’m referring to the RE boom caused by the Olympic hype.
        Olympic Village is a good example?

      • nom nom non

        BLM – “It’s just odd that the money in Vancouver’s bank is disproportionally not earned there.”…. Funny that is what the IMF and Euro zone just thought about Cypress and its banks.

      • Cypress and Vancouver are influenced by totally different constructs.

        You’re winding me up!

    • BLM: “I just want to point out that most people are overly emotional on this topic to see reality for what it is.”

      Sure, bulls are too emotional, bears are too emotional, but you have it ‘just right’ (we are to presume)? The coolheaded analyst who sees limitless demand going forward, and ever expanding debt as the new normal.
      Each to his own reality, I suppose.

      • I just like to go by facts and to take an expansive view on things. I don’t hold any truth but I like to stimulate intelligent conversations on this blog by dispelling some of the myths and cynicism that is so prevalent with far-right bears. I must say I do pick up new thinking from these debates I have with your readers.

      • BLM: “I don’t hold any truth but I like to stimulate intelligent conversations on this blog.”
        I hope you don’t mean you’re feel you’re doing us a favour with academic arguments. We’d all prefer that you simply shared your own sincerely held beliefs about the market.

        BLM: “..dispelling some of the myths and cynicism that is so prevalent with far-right bears.”
        Please give us an example of a myth that you believe you have ‘dispelled’.

      • Vreaa – I do feel I’m doing this blog a favour by stimulating conversations. What I say is what I believe but there are times typing from my iPhone constricts what I truly want to say. If I’m coming across as being out of line, then let me know. Happy to go back to just reading your blog as I have been over the last year ever since I was accused of being a shill.

      • BLM: You’re not “coming across as being out of line”.

    • “For a crash or a meaningful correction to happen we need a trigger. ”

      …and other myths

    • The housing market is not like the stock market. Stocks can get spooked and things can drop 10-20% over a matter of weeks or months. The housing market is not like that. It’s made up of many sales. If there are no sales, then prices will stagnate because there will be no opportunity for prices to really crash. Prices have already dropped 20-30% from peak in Richmond and West Van and Van West. This is not a soft landing. Regardless, 3M dollar home in West Van dropping 30% is still 2.1M, which is still grossly overpriced. However, the media doesn’t report it because their RE masters aren’t telling them to, but when the markets were hot, there were daily stories on bidding wars, etc. People who aren’t in tune with the market are still thinking the market is hot (I ran into a RE bull saying things will still double in ten years–yes, right, and where is the money coming from?). Moreover, remember, if prices go from 1.0M->1.5M, that is a 50% increase, which sounds like a lot. But if prices drop from 1.5M->1.0M that is only a 33% drop, which actually also plays into the psychology of people, especially the vast majority of buyers/sellers/RE agents, whose mathematical skills are no better than a 4th grader (hence the manipulation and use of “average prices” rather than “median prices” as a measure of central tendancy).

      • @ Brian

        “The housing market is not like the stock market. Stocks can get spooked and things can drop 10-20% over a matter of weeks or months. The housing market is not like that.”
        >>> stocks could drop 10-20% in a matter of hours (or seconds in the case of the May 2010 flash crash), but would likely continue to trade. the RE market would freeze up like the MBS market did and go bidless. 100% of whatever cash you may have tied up in RE would be unavailable to you.

        “If there are no sales, then prices will stagnate because there will be no opportunity for prices to really crash”
        >>> maybe true in the land of Oz, where the market value of a property and the asking price of some delusional seller are one and the same.

        “Prices have already dropped 20-30% from peak in Richmond and West Van and Van West. This is not a soft landing.”
        >>> no, only over inflated “asking” prices have come down. this is an important point. I sometimes wonder if this was done partly by design (like a retailer who bumps up the MSRP by 100%, then slashes the price by 50% later on in an attempt to lure in a bunch of ignorant bargain hunting mooches). the msm spinmeisters and RE insiders are (or will be soon) trying to get everyone to believe that much of the damage is already baked in, that there are bargains galore everywhere and that it’s only up from here. imho, the downdraft in prices that many are predicting has not even begun to materialize as there has been no meeting of the minds between buyers and sellers yet. it is too early to talk about any sort of “landing” since the sellers have not even jumped into the water. the only thing I can say for certain is that the water level continues to drop as buyers exit the pool and that there is only limited space available on top of the diving platform.

    • Lifetime Renter

      BLM you have it backwards. A crisis is not required to pop a housing bubble. In fact it takes something exceptional to prevent it. In 2009 the federal government allowed the banks to create a whole new layer of debt slaves by loosening loan restrictions. This intervention only delayed the inevitable. Now the bubble is bigger and its collapse will likely be more severe than it would have been had it occurred earlier. The experience of others shows that a collapsing housing bubble creates its own crises. Declining sales and prices remove the professional speculators. The pool of greater fools shrinks as the naïve question the manufactured belief that “prices will never fall”. Sellers hold on to that belief longer but eventually an increasing number of sellers reduce their prices usually in direct correlation to how desperate they are to unload their property. Then the broader economic impact of the collapse begins to take hold. Construction and RE jobs disappear. Overall retail sales decline and stores close or cut back staff. A growing sense of insecurity tightens wallets. HELOCs to finance purchases disappear. And some lose all income due to job loss. Then declining tax revenues and, as always, vast spending to bail out the banks, lead to huge deficits causing governments to implement austerity which leads to more job loss. At that point the market hits rock bottom and it takes years before it begins to turn around. The severity of the collapse will vary but, as many others have said, there is every reason to fear that its impact will be strongest in our little corner of Canada

      • Yes, exactly.

      • Vancouver Hipster

        Very true. I call it the microcosm mentality.

        An average joe who has lived all his life in BC and who vehemently denies overvalued RE bubble in Vancouver likely has not been to a real world class city with strong economic fundamentals.
        I still think that the idea of “Chinese investors” is over-hyped. High end property maybe, but not anymore.
        Most “HAM” is just Chinese immigrants who haven’t been to world class cities (similar to average joe above) in North America.
        What you have seen so far is the ignorant greed, fear will be worse.

      • 4SlicesofCheese

        We might actually have had a chance in a soft landing if Flaherty took the opportunity to learn from the states, but who knows maybe it was already too late.

      • Burnabonian

        “An average joe who has lived all his life in BC and who vehemently denies overvalued RE bubble in Vancouver likely has not been to a real world class city with strong economic fundamentals.”

        I see this every day. Those who have spent their working lives in BC cannot fathom what a robust economy is and should be.

        BC’s “economy”, salaries, and job market SUCK and always have. (And no, the Civil Service does not count as an economy or a job market. Your ICBC or BC Ferries paycheque is just welfare that has had union dues subtracted.)

        The primary way to build a company here seems to be some combination of paying slave wages, being shady and/or scammy, and getting on the government (or FIRE industry) dole.

        I am fortunate to make a good salary at a good job, but am terrified to lose it because I know what is (and isn’t) out there. It also makes it hard to advance a career here, since the business community is tiny and good employers are as rare as hens’ teeth.

        I believe that this fact is precisely *why* British Columbians put so much time and energy into flipping real estate to one another, then endlessly talking about flipping real estate: It’s basically the only hope they have.

        If you wish to be financially independent in Alberta, and have the ambition or insecurity to drive you to it, you have many options: finance a backhoe, become any type of professional and work hard at it, or drive hotshot sober for 10 years. DONE. You now have a million bucks in the bank and only need to work if you want to. Smart people can put 10 or 100 million in the bank with a little luck and sweat equity.

        Here, on the other hand, being educated and smart and hardworking are only partial determinants of success. Due to the dearth of economic activity and the tiny business community, your B.Sc and work ethic can be your ticket to having no job or a terrible job, or force you into becoming a career student while you hit the snooze button on the alarm clock of life two years at a time.

        Hence the desperate focus on flipping houses as a way to sidestep the grim economic reality of the BPOE.

        BC needs to develop its’ resources, create a culture of productivity and ambition, and lock the socialists in the friggin basement for awhile so the economy can get on it’s feet.

      • Ralph Cramdown

        BC’s economy is a very weird dynamic, and the politics has been incomprehensible forever.

        Perhaps part of it is the widely shared notion that BC doesn’t need to make any of its own money because rich people from elsewhere will keep bringing it. Victoria, Vancouver and the Okanagan all had this fervent belief that hundreds of thousands of Albertans and Ontarians were sweating for decades to save up a nut so they could retire in BC. Lately it’s been more about HAM. Planeloads of LA film types would distribute cash weekly. Rich skiers would pop in and spend a bundle. A bit from the cruise ships on their way by. I’m sure there’s more. And all the locals could just find a niche taking a bit of that money from elsewhere.

      • Vancouver Hipster

        Burnabonian and Ralph

        Very true.
        I have lived in BC for only 2 years and could not agree more, having lived in NYC and Dallas for many years.
        I make really good money and own foreign property, but still rent in Vancouver.
        Why? because it is nauseating to see these rapacious Vancouverites expecting millions for their useless shacks. And the inflated sense of self importance and BPOE. They can never really comprehend what living in a really great city is all about.

      • There is certainly reason to fear that a ‘crash’ would severely impact Vancouver.

        But we are still in a state of easy monetary environment and there is no real end in sight. Some say 2015 but we can’t count on it for the very reasons you state above – higher rates will cause a housing crash and more importantly, slow our manufacturing and export industry to a crawl. If the government had the stomach to normalize rates along with property prices, it would likely put even you, steady Eddy’s job, at risk (or at least your prospects).

        You just can’t have your cake and eat it too.

        Vancouver’s economy is peculiar, no doubt. If only we could see the flow of funds from Asia to the city transparently. There are a lot of Canadian Indians and Chinese who have family in Asia who are remitting money over to Vancouver every month. Their economies are going gang busters. This inflow of capital is not tracked but it has a profound impact on the economy and asset prices in Vancouver.

        You can’t say the same for Dallas, Calgary or even Toronto. Their links are to other places (and for Dallas it might be Mexico, who does not posses the might of Asia’s wealth). Their economies are also much bigger compared to Vancouver’s and therefore makes it easier for them to absorb foreign capital. Other cities do rely more on a real economy. Vancouver inherently relies more on Asian dynamics because of its demographics.

        Can you imagine the flow of Middle Eastern and Russian money that goes into London at any given month hitting Vancouver? We would be overwhelmed and prices for everything would go even higher.

        The best indication of whether prices are sustainable are rates and liquidity.

        How much it costs to borrow? How much capital is sitting idle in bank accounts? These are much more important fundamentals in Vancouver’s globalized property market than affordability. By far.

      • Vancouver Hipster

        BLM

        With all due respect, it is the same crap argument about the outsiders supporting Vancouver economy and RE.

        I am not totally discounting presence of Chinese and Indian money, but such effect is always short term, and cannot by itself drive the economy or RE long term and hence the underlying bubble. It just feeds and is a catalyst for the RE Ponzi.

        NYC and Dallas (TX), as you bring up, did have strong underlying fundamentals and did not suffer much in the downturn.
        Can you say the same about Vancouver? lol

      • I don’t understand the nuances of NYC and Dallas’ economies to say much about it but they do seem to be resilient, from what I’ve read.

        The affect of Asian money in Vancouver is undeniable. It’s impact is amplified given the ratio of capital inflows to the size of Vancouver’s economy (small). Many Asians, first and second generation continue to hold assets overseas to support/subsidize their Vancouver lifestyles.

        I’m not referring to the suitcases of cash from Mainland Chinese that go from YVR to helicopter to some land owner in White Rock. I’m talking about legacy links of Asian pensioners, etc.. that continue to get income from Asia while they live in Vancouver. It is why HSBC is their primary choice for banking because they can move funds freely across jurisdictions with little paperwork and fees. It is also why we see more and more small Chinese, Taiwanese and Indian banks popping up here and there.

        Vancouver, from Asia, does hold the glamour of Monte Carlo in the eyes of many wealthy Asians. They like practicality and familiarity and Vancouver offers that. Most wealthy Canadians aspire for a ski/summer cabin or property in Haiwaii/Mexico. Wealthy Asians aspire for overseas residency and its way of life.

      • Van Hipster/ Burnabonian/ Ralph:
        Agreed. Often one looks around and wonders what drives our economy.
        And if we really do end up being little more than a resort town (cruise ships, skiing, casinos, film crews parachuting in for the w/e, conferences, etc) it has detrimental implications for the soul of the city.

        BLM:
        Agree with other commenters; you’re simply making the argument that somehow people will always keep bringing money to Vancouver and that’ll buoy RE indefinitely. It’s a ‘true demand argument’.
        If this demand is so robust, why aren’t all the properties on the market being snapped up right now? They’re down 10% or more, aren’t they bargains?
        Truth is, much of the ‘demand’ that you imagine is as speculative as all the other ‘demand’, and the moment prices show us they are heading down (seriously down, not just 10-15%), that ‘demand’ evaporates. In fact, much of it may become supply. So, how much do people really want to own (and actually use) Vancouver RE?… I suspect we’ll find out over the next few years.

      • Vreaa – foreign capital and immigration brings economic benefits too and generates demand. I don’t doubt things could turn bad as you and many readers envisage. I just feel that’s very unlikely. Or about as likely as political unrest in Asia that will bring more money and people to Canada.

        What is happening in Cyprus right now is going to keep rates down for a long time. All that money in Europe now will find its way to the US and keep US Treasury Bond yields wayyyyy down. I would venture a guess the Canadian dollar will strengthen over the next few days too.

      • BLM: “I just feel that’s very unlikely.”

        C’mon, admit it.. that pretty much sums up your entire argument, doesn’t it? You’re pretty sure that ongoing overwhelming demand from Asia will hold up Vancouver RE, at any level, forever. Isn’t that correct?

        Also, note that neither I nor the majority of the posters here are arguing that rates need to go up for Vancouver RE to crash. Spec manias collapse under their own weight. Rate hikes would speed the process, but they’re not necessary for a serious multi-year downdraft in prices to occur.

      • Vreaa: there’s nothing to admit here. It’s pretty obvious the market would be different if there were no Asian demand or new immigrants in the market.

        The demand is priced in already.

        HAM is done for now as far as we can see and the markets are pricing that in now.

    • I agree with BLM. Kim Campbell should man-up and close on her $1.8 million condo. So what if it’s now worth $1,476,000…? You only go around once….and she has a big Federal Pension, so what’s the problem?

  4. There is going to be noise between sub regions in terms of pricing, but I think local dynamics hide the concept of substitution, as one region outperforms, others will catch a delayed draft. In total the regional numbers tell us that looking “local” is missing the forest from the trees — sales and inventory are tightly related to price changes for the region.

    Boenisch’s numbers are the real deal for Vancouver’s overall health.

    • Real Estate Tsunami

      YVR,
      JOE the PLUMBER does not understand.

    • Noise between the sub-regions?… And did someone say Endemic? (or was that colonic?)…

      [NoteToEd: When they burst… They really burst. It’s usually much better afterwards, though.]

      • Real Estate Tsunami

        Mem, agree.
        I’d rather have diarrhea for a few days than constipation forever.

  5. Muir’s linguistic magic continues to amaze. In one short paragraph he managed to fit it in: “modest pace”, “improved affordability”, “holding pattern” (an expression as tired and irritating as “thinking outside the box”), “pent up”, and “latent”.

    So warm and fuzzy. It’s good to know that Everything’s Going to be Alright.

  6. Hi guys
    Here is my fist attempt to create a heat map for Vancouver. This is for asking prices. This is for houses, town houses, condos combined.Any feedback is welcome.
    Condos Heat Map and Houses Heat Map (one map for each), are also available.
    If you have a link to a page where complete daily sales are posted I would like to know about it. I need just the address and final price. A date for a the transaction would also help. A comment on the site indicated below is fine for sending me a link
    The above will help me to create two very interesting maps: asking prices vs sold prices
    Here is the link to one of my interactive map:
    http://recharts.blogspot.ca/2013/03/vancouver-active-listings-heat-map.html

    • UBCghettodweller

      vreaa, is there a way of headlining or giving ReCharts post the equivalent of a bump? I like his (her) approach.

      The ability to have a map that plots asking vs sale differentials as well as geographic location, and as data accumulates, the changes over time would be immensely valuable for the discussions on this website and others (let alone anyone who is buying or selling real estate.)

  7. Hi guys
    One thing that I will probably try to do, if no sales data are available is to track the inventory that disappears from the market. That would be a little bit off since listings might as well expire instead of being sold

    • UBCghettodweller

      As long as the methods and assumptions are clearly displayed, I don’t think that detracts from what you’re trying to do. Some data compiled in a thoughtful manner, albeit limited, is better than no data. The trick is to not interpret the data further than its limits logically allow.

  8. still find it unbelievable that will all the facts out there, people STILL think it’s different in Canada.

    Son… I am disappoint.

  9. with*

  10. The house next to the one I am renting in East Van just got listed on the weekend for about $50K above the assessed value. I think it will stay listed for a long time if they don’t give up and pull the listing.

  11. http://www.usnews.com/news/technology/articles/2013/03/18/electronic-arts-ceo-john-riccitiello-leaving

    Electronic Arts, a substantial employer of house horny Vancouverites, is expected to miss on Revenue and Earnings guidance. Now the CEO is leaving….

  12. Just thought it was again to thank all posters for their comments. Real dialogue on our real estate mania is terrific.

  13. After taking a day off, Global TV and BIV Media President, Paul Harris, are back to “pump everyone’s tires” some more on their daily edition of the “business” report. In case you weren’t aware, Glacier Media is the publisher of BIV, The Real Estate Weekly and countless other local daily/weekly newspapers.

    With “the boomers not needing to retire” coupled with the fact they “they have kids at home who can’t afford to move out”, there is no reason for them to sell. “The message to homeowners is don’t panic.”

    link to video: http://tinyurl.com/cbvguzh

  14. FWIW…

    new G&M article: Manulife pulls low mortgage rate under pressure from Ottawa http://tinyurl.com/bv3onqh

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