“Vancouver Island real estate is crashing.”

“Mid Vancouver Island real estate is crashing.
So many listings have been reduced 4-5 times and over $100,000 in price reductions, and still no greater fools buying.
Nanaimo to Courtney is kapoot!
Someone turn out the lights and end their misery.
This is not ending well!”

unbelieveable at greater fool.ca 1 Mar 2013 10:13pm

“Central Vancouver Island is kaput is almost an understatement. Comox Valley: MLS Inventory, 874. February sales, 36. MOI, 24.4. This is a total wipe out.”
Ford prefect at greaterfool.ca 1 Mar 2013 11:13pm

“I train automotive dealership employees how to use my employer’s software for a living.
Yesterday, one of my clients was a woman who used to be a realtor for 6 years on Vancouver Island……and last week I had another ex-realtor on Vancouver Island with 20 years of experience. Both left the RE industry recently, and just entered the car business.
That’s about 4 of them I have encountered in the last month alone.”

Carioca Canuck at VCI 2 Mar 2013 10:35am

The Blast Radius moves closer to the epicentre.
(cue Jaws theme)
– vreaa

36 responses to ““Vancouver Island real estate is crashing.”

  1. Cyril Tourneur

    Nearly 25 MOI? That’s not good.

    • No, not good at all. Yikes. That is serious. Nobody should be surprised though. There were how many million dollar homes for sale up there in a region with high unemployment and an overabundance of retirees? Places were costlier than Vancouver in some cases. It isn’t funny but the Jaws theme gets a chuckle. You might imagine there would be a lot of discounting with so much inventory and a crash in new construction but I am guessing building just carries on as denial is such a strong emotion.

  2. Living in Victoria

    Ah, but if you live in Victoria, even those inhabiting the “bear” blogs are still in total denial. Guess what we’re going to have in Victoria? Oh, maybe a 10-15 percent correction. We’re already at 12. Only three percent to go and then it’s up up and away! Prices here never come down! It’s different here! Everybody wants to live in Victoria! Yes!!!!! Our little tip of Vancouver Island is the only place ON THE PLANET that is going to get to skip a real estate crash! So glad I live here. And rent.

    • >> Oh, maybe a 10-15 percent correction.

      My view is 10-15%, but from here, not from peak.

      • leo -> On what are you basing your price target?

      • >> leo -> On what are you basing your price target?

        Continued low interest rates and a correction in the affordability stats to where we ended up in previous corrections.

      • Living in Victoria

        Yeah, because that hasn’t happened anywhere else. Bwahahahahahaha.
        But again, it’s different here.

      • At the very minimum.
        IMHO, this could be a replay of what occurred in the Okanagan and then some.

  3. Not a crash, a retrenchment. Words,words!

  4. Please, please….nobody panic. There are plenty of lifeboats for everyone. Ignore the newspapers, they are just trying to scare and confuse you. Believe in Cameron Muir and you shall all be saved.


    “Real-estate slump could clip forecasts
    March 2, 2013
    Times Colonist

    A slow start to the year may have the Victoria Real Estate Board reconsidering its position that the region’s property market could see modest growth in 2013.

    Based on a forecast from economist Cameron Muir at the B.C. Real Estate Association, the local board had anticipated a “modest” increase of between two and four per cent in sales activity this year.

    But poor sales in January and February may jeopardize that forecast.

    “They are definitely not great numbers,” said Shelley Mann, president of the Victoria Real Estate Board. “I would say if we don’t see substantial growth in March and April we may have to re-evaluate.”

    Mann said the region historically sees the highest volume of transactions and activity in March, April and May. By the end of that stretch, they will know where the market stands.

    The figures released by the board Friday show February’s sales, while an improvement over January, dropped 18.3 per cent compared with February 2012…”

    • “There are plenty of lifeboats…”…

      Depends, K… They’re so frequently scarce when you really need one.

      Of course… there are always charters where, “Strange ships slip through the fog with even stranger cargoes…”…

      [NoteToEd: How I pine for the ‘GoodOldDays’…]

    • Skipper: All hands on deck…I think we are going on the rocks!
      Gilligan: But it’s a big island, skipper. We will make it.
      Mrs Howell: Oooh. Look at all those mansions….they look so empty!
      Ginger: Maybe there is a rich man out there.
      Mr Howell: Oh Bluster! This island is already underwater!
      Skipper: Put on your life vests…we will try for Japan.
      Ginger: Don’t worry! I have a brokers license.
      Gilligan: We are doomed. Throw her overboard….we might have a chance!!

  5. Both left the RE industry recently, and just entered the car business.

    Moving up on the career ladder?

    • Depends on how you view, “ChannelStuffing”, Bubbly… which, not surprisingly, is a congruence… viz. either biz.

      PS – I’ve always wondered, Bubbly… Are you Moet… or Lansons… or Veuve?

    • Next stop: insurance, Not that there’s anything rung with that.

      • CanuckDownUnder

        Hi-yooo! I was going to suggesting escorting but that works.

      • They’re all about screwing people out of their money; escorting happens to be the one where the screwing is agreed-upon upfront.

      • CanuckDownUnder

        Climbing rungs is now considered gauche, I suppose it does involve actual physical activity. This is from one of the big four Aussie banks:

        “This age group (25-34) is working hard to save enough to be in a position to buy a property, securing a foothold on Australia’s real estate escalator.”

      • “Real estate escalator”!
        Damn, I wish somebody had said that here in BC, so we could add it to the lexicon.
        We’ll have to watch for it’s use here.
        Wonderful stuff.

      • CanuckDownUnder

        I knew you’d like that one vreaa. I think at this point you’ll have to wait for the next boom cycle before it gets a Vancouver mention.

        Unfortunately for a lot of people in the 25-34 age bracket what they’re on right now is the Escalator to Nowhere.

      • [00:00>03:21]

  6. I know someone who just sold his condo in victoria recently. He got his asking price, which was 20k more than he bought it for four or five years ago. It was on the market for 6 months with a lot of offers pending sale of other properties that weren’t moving.
    It’s a really lovely unit in gorgeous neighbourhood. And he is still sooooooo lucky

  7. Real Estate Tsunami

    House Inspector Clouseau.

  8. CanuckDownUnder


  9. FantasyIslandCrashing? Actually… it’s floating away.

    “With this one, the biggest challenge was crossing a field to get access to the water.” -Jum Connelly, Nickel Bros.

    [VTC] – After 116 years, ‘Ellerslie’ farmhouse in Esquimalt makes its move

    The two-storey, 95-tonne house was moved across a soft, wet field on Friday in preparation for being shifted onto a barge at 4 a.m. Monday. It’s scheduled to arrive in Union Bay on Friday.”…


  10. Vancouver Island has been pulling in the Alberta Oil worker, who thought he could commute to work, but is finding out how expensive this can be. This lifestyle is also very stressful on families, and divorce rates. Not long ago, Alberta Oil workers would get off the plane at the Comox airport, visit a few houses, and pay down on a house within a week. This has got to be the easiest work ever for a Realtor. Stands to reason the back slide down is as spectacular as the wave up.

    Another thing to consider is that Campbell River took the downturn in 2008/2009 particularly hard. I’m not sure the RE was able to recover because Catalyst closed the Elk Falls mill in 2010, and the newly build Cruise Ship pier was a total bust. When I was in Campbell River in 2011, there was much moaning and groaning about municipal expenditures being cut back.

    Taking this line of reasoning a step further, the next big hit on the Island is most emphatically the Comox Valley, for the reasons stated above. It also stands to reason that the RE bust is tracking south, and after Nanaimo, Cowichan will get hammered, and Victoria, on top of the big hits they have taken already.

    for my part, like i said, I spend the greater part of 2011 in Campbell River, 2012 in Comox/Courtenay, and now in 2013 I’m sitting pretty in Duncan/Cowichan.

  11. Well paying jobs are scarce on Vancouver Island so this has meant that the only folks buying houses are retirees but even they have budgetary limitations. As housing costs (whether rental or bought) are continuing to climb in 2014 on Vancouver Island I predict that within 2 or 3 years the island will = Vancouver in terms of price and when you couple that with the exhorbitant ferry costs to leave the place, well it is no longer ‘a good deal.’
    Young people aren’t buying at all as the under-employment is awful throughout the island (jobs which pay only minimum wage and all part time). Wherever all this is going, it is not pretty & I think it is better for people to average rent in BC at this point in time. (Or marry a wealthy Asian and they may buy you a house, LOL. Or win the lottery jackpot.) July 2014, my view

  12. It is a weird market here in Parksville and Qualicum, seems to be all over the map right now. Houses with stairs are not worth much. People are selling and leaving the area, heading back east, or to Van or Vic. Schools are closing and the writing is on the wall. For real estate to go up the local area needs people moving in for economic growth and jobs which, as wise eagle said are just not available on the island.

  13. but but but the license plates say best place on earth

    the winter olympics are gonna create millions of jobs

    • Whipmaster~kerthwhack

      Sorry but mid-Island is doing pretty good. Lots of “SOLD” signs. Also, it’s the place to be if you like the outdoors. Too bad y’all live elsewhere.
      When the license plates says, “best place on Earth”, they are telling the truth.
      How can some people be so miserable? Oh well, birds of a feather…..

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