New High – “Inventory is now at the highest point it has been in the last 8 years for this time of year.”

RE Inventory Chart130221

“Inventory is now at the highest point it has been in the last 8 years for this time of year.”
– chart and observation care of b5baxter at vancouverpeak.com 21 Feb 2013, created with numbers from PaulB.

15 responses to “New High – “Inventory is now at the highest point it has been in the last 8 years for this time of year.”

  1. But how can this graph be correct when the commentators that the media go to are telling us that sellers are holding their houses off the market and refusing to list at lower prices???
    In fact, listings started at a higher level than last year and sellers are adding listings at the same pace as last year. If any significant number of sellers have held back their listing “waiting for spring” then there is going to be a deluge of listings soon.

    • Indeed. One shudders to think what the graph is beginning to look like once all those “discretionary sellers” run out of discretion?

      • The Boomers know their lessons well.

        Many of them recall with clarity what happened in the 70’s and 80’s with home prices crashing amidst a massive surge of government intervention and a Gold market gone crazy. Back then unemployment shot up to unprecedented highs, oil went parabolic, inflation and interest rates were off the charts…..

        Some of the Boomers will be thinking this is the top and that the relative calm we are experiencing now will be followed by dramatic events not so different from those of 40 years ago.

        They may be right too.

        We cannot read the future of course but there are enough worries on the horizon now to tell some people it is time to get out of Dodge. I expect listings to surge as this awareness becomes keener in the minds of those who remember.

  2. Real Estate Tsunami

    In my street in Richmond, a listing that was taken off in November is back on the market.
    Was listed for $ 1,138,000 then and is now relisted at $ 999,000.
    The sellers must be kicking themselves and feel pretty stupid to boot.
    That’s probably why there is no For Sale sign up front.
    They also got one of the top realtors working for them.

    • “That’s probably why there is no For Sale sign up front.”
      Odd thing – I noticed a few houses in my area that had no For Sale signs, but once they were sold, the realtors put up the For Sale signs with big SOLD stickers across. One even went so far as putting one SOLD sign in front of the house and another one with the SOLD sticker and a big arrow at the end of the block so that it is visible on the busy cross street.

      • In moderation because of too much realtor language….

      • Real Estate Tsunami

        There are 6 listings in my hood.
        Only 4 have signs out front.
        The other 2 probably don’t want the area look too crowded.
        You know potential buyers may wonder why everyone is selling.

      • Ralph Cramdown

        I hope you added a “Below Asking!” rider. The other day, going past a nearby condo sales office whose ad wall has said “10% deposit… Limited Time Offer” for QUITE some time now, it occurred to me that printing up and gluing on a sheet saying “Now PWYC!” might attract some extra interest.

    • My understanding is that the Lower Mainland is largely protected from tsunami by our faithful shield – Victoria. Perhaps a name change to ‘Real Estate Liquefaction’ is in order?

  3. Vancouver Teranet at long term support:

    That line is the trend. Demographics, interest rates, the business cycle, etc, all play into that. Activity above the line is froth. The question is whether the trend will hold, and if it changes, what the new trend will be.

    • Uhm… questionable that the trendline starts only so recently as 2003, and not earlier. It’s like a trendline OF THE BUBBLE. The line should be much flatter, one would think.

      • It is the trendline of the bubble. Our federal government bounced it in 2009 with enough stimulus to fight a war. Will we get tax credits for jacuzzis this time I wonder?

  4. Technical Assistance

    The longer the flag (or pennant), the bigger the move when it occurs. RE in a Bear Flag, we know that much.

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