Local Realtor “Cautiously Optimistic”

mike stewart

“Now Andrew had a couple of questions about the Vancouver real estate market… In the media he’d been reading that the Vancouver real estate market had seen a significant drop in the last little while, and he wanted to know what the real situation was.” …
“We’ve seen a lot of changes in the economy in China, so there’s a lot less people coming over from China. We’ve also seen changes in mortgage rules which has also reduced a lot of demand for property here in Vancouver.” …
“What are my predictions for the next six months?.. Our major trading partners (US, China) have been having some issues but their economies seem to be turning the corner. So I’m cautiously optimistic. … In terms of changes to mortgage rules, they came in 3 to 4 months ago, we’re feeling the effect now, in the past after mortgage changes, you get about 3 to 6 months where things soften up, then things begin to pick up. So, you know, I’m cautiously optimistic.”

– excerpts from Mike Stewart, local realtor, self posted youtube video, 20 Nov 2012 [hat-tip Anon]

Whenever a speculative mania tops and begins its deflation, participants who don’t understand the fabric of bubbles, and who haven’t seen the mania for what it is, will search for extraneous factors to blame. Sure, some external factors may shape the path of the price descent, but the real cause for the resultant implosion is the fact of the mania.
– vreaa

Quotes from above added to the “It’s Only A Flesh Wound” sidebar post.

27 responses to “Local Realtor “Cautiously Optimistic”

  1. Cyril Tourneur

    Macro…blah blah blah…China…blah blah blah…USA turning the corner…blah blah blah…mortgage rules…blah blah blah…buyers market…blah blah blah.
    Not even a whisper about affordability or the local economy.

    • You nailed it Cyril. This is just hopeful spin from a guy with little or no understanding of what is in store for a market that is clearly going into decline. Nothing can stop the much needed correction now.

  2. Speaking to someone the other day. She worked in the RE industry, was late 30s and said she couldn’t afford to have a baby right now as she just became self employed and business is super slow. She is worried that her biological clock is ticking…

  3. Mike Stewart is not very professional at all. I caught him lying on RET and pointed it out to him. He was saying at the time, that Maynard’s had 4 listings which were listed on his site. I actually found 11, which were also on his site. He doesn’t even know his own website!!! After a heated debate where he had threatened to punch my face in, he deleted the comments and never did return. Some quotes are still there but a guy with the anger and short temper like that, is not a professional. Did I mention Mike is a little dog? Hey Mike, you know what I’m talking about eh? Or should we get her to comment on this?

  4. On the issue of China I think it is notable that the capital investment bubble there is actally in the process of being reinflated. Rather than take the hard medicine of correction the authorities have instead chosen the route of reflation will can only result in a bigger correction down the road. It is very short term thinking meanwhile to imagine that Chinese buyers can support Vancouver’s current property bubble. This is especially so as it is now widely known in the Chinese community that the price growth of the past is already in the rear view mirror. Why do Realtors always assume the Chinese are stupid with money?

  5. “Cautiously optimistic” is the same linguistic sleight-of-hand as Muir’s “unsexy”. And it’s an analytical cop-out. If things go well, you were right because you were optimistic. If things go poorly, you were also right, because you were cautious.

    • I must follow through with setting up a ‘bubble speak’ sidebar.

      • A Realtor Speak sidebar would also be heplful, and hilarious. “Oozing with charm”, anyone?

      • “Cautiously optimistic” = “Stable”=”Slight Variation”?

        “Generally, the trend is market value is stable throughout the Okanagan, but each community will have a slight variation.” – Deputy Assessor Tracy Wall

        [PWN] – Property assessments down in South Okanagan

        …”In Penticton, residential property values declined 3.57 per cent overall, while business, industrial and commercial rose by 2.53 per cent. Throughout the South Okanagan, Osoyoos was the most affected, with residential properties dropping 7.23 per cent and commercial dropping 2.19 per cent. None of the South Okanagan communities saw property values rise for residential.”…

        http://tinyurl.com/ajj932l

        [NoteToEd: SideBar illustration suggestion… Orwell?]

  6. Caption should read:
    “Mike Stewart.
    Always busy.”

  7. green is the color of cautious optimism … pffft! … http://tinyurl.com/b3e4hx2

  8. Speaking of “realtor optimism”, you guys gotta check out this full page spread from Polygon’s CEO, titled “For whatever’s next…” (see pg F3 Vancouver Sun, Saturday, Jan.5, 2013). I advise you all do this on an empty stomach too.

    Sorry, no link available.

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