“In the past year, out of about 15 empty units (out of 32 total) in my west side townhouse complex, only one sold.”

“In the past year, out of about 15 empty units (out of 32) in my west side townhouse complex, only one sold, in January 2012 for 1.28m. Thus, for my townhouse complex there is at least 15 years of inventory. This isn’t counting all the other buildings going up around me still. You don’t need much of a brain to see supply is far outstripping demand.”
Brian at VREAA 4 Jan 2013.

26 responses to ““In the past year, out of about 15 empty units (out of 32 total) in my west side townhouse complex, only one sold.”

  1. Real Estate Tsunami

    In Richmond, on Shell & Steveston, is a project with 25 Townhouses.
    It was completed about 2 years ago. So far only 11 units have sold.
    There’s no HST, and they are giving away a Honda Civic. still, no takers.
    The financing bank must be getting antsy.

  2. Well, if I was a speculator, i’d be familiar with Fibonacci ratios. With that in mind, I’d say your complex won’t hit serious resistance until vacancies/For Sale reaches 20.

    In other words, 16 is going to 20 before things improve.

    • UBCghettodweller

      Fibonacci ratios?

      Care to explain?

      • The black magic of technical analysis.

      • your kidding, right? All the amazing speculative talent buying and selling real estate in la la Lotus land .. and they do not understand Support and Resistance levels? Fibs? please google any of these terms and get some fast learning. Fibonacci ratio is commonly referred to as The Golden Mean. The Golden Mean of 32 (32 * 0.618) = 19.776. Once this complex moves to 20 vacancies, that number may very well ‘stick’ for some time… bump back to 15, before a more compelling flush to 25.

      • Even if you do subscribe to TA, you’d most commonly use it to analyze price, not vacancies/inventory.

      • And you wouldn’t use it on real estate.

      • I think it has as much validity as anything else discussed here. I mean: look where we are!

      • As longer term readers know, I have previously used TA (for what it is worth) to look at Vancouver RE prices, with lots of caveats:

        Five Charts: Predicting Future Vancouver Housing Prices
        VREAA 11 Sep 2010

        “Only a lunatic makes real estate sell or buy decisions based solely on charts, but, conversely, only a fool would say that past price action is irrelevant…. etc”

      • UBCghettodweller

        >I think it has as much validity as anything else discussed here. I mean: look where we are!

        Ha! Standard models seem to have failed. The problem is that you don’t know what this means or why until you have more data and a new and better model.

      • Real Estate Tsunami

        IMO psychologists and sociologists are better suited to predict trends in financial and real estate markets than mathematicians and economists.

  3. A Honda Civic? Oh yeah, that should pull in HAM by the boatload. Like Anchovie schools driven to giant sea nets. If those guys really want to entice the Chinese buyers they need to get with the trend and start offering the #1 hottest selling minivan in Asia…..

    The Wuling Sunshine of course!!
    (I drove one for awhile………..total crap…….no air bags…..just my opinion)

    • Geez…….according to the website, one of it’s attributes is construction with “firm metal plate”.

      Makes one wonder if a van made of “flimsy metal plate” is potentially unsafe.

      • There are good reasons they don’t let these contraptions into Canada. I have a sneaking suspicion “firm metal plates” is just the beginning of the list of reasons. Give me a Dodge Caravan any day of the week.

    • Naked Official #9000

      Disloyal cadre!

      How dare you criticize the glorious safety engineering of the harmonious people’s republic’s automotive industry!

      You will have to write a self criticism to lessen your penalty!

    • Real Estate Tsunami

      How does it compare to the Yugo?

  4. Uh oh! Someone let the cat out of the bag. http://tinyurl.com/as675bg

    Oh please come back, best beloved HAM. It was all a joke, really, Vancouver is different! It is, it is!

    • Notwithstanding an amusing introductory reference to Canada as their, “new dream”… the following FP piece nicely encapsulates a powerful dynamic/feature of hot money flows whenever a local ‘house of cards’ collapses…

      [FP] – Immigrants abandoning recession-hit Italy

      …”In Rome’s Chinatown the Blue Skies travel agency is selling more one-way tickets back to China than returns. The manager of the Mei Dan beauty parlour says Canada is the new dream, while the Golden Home property agency reports falling prices as immigrants sell up and leave.

      “Many, many Chinese are going back home,” says Sonia Fen, a restaurant owner and television celebrity who has lived in Italy for 21 years. “No business and no work. It is a terrible situation.”

      As quietly as they began to arrive in large numbers a decade ago, the Chinese community is silently slipping away, the many “for sale” signs posted on shuttered stores around Rome’s Piazza Vittorio bearing testament to their exodus. While for a minority Canada is the new destination, China’s still rapidly growing economy is also beckoning.”….


  5. theboywhocriedbubble

    The google translation of your asian forum page link is a real hoot. Try it out !

  6. Momentum investors (foreign and local) hate markets that are dropping.

  7. No supply where I’m looking. Under one million for a house, MLS has 11 listings for Grandview, 5 for Main, and 6 for Mount Pleasant.

    • Real Estate Tsunami

      Exactly what makes this RE market so crazy.
      Former ghettos are now spotting > $ 1 million homes.
      Welcome, welcome to the BoomTown.

    • Exactly. No supply under $1 million. And no buyers unless they’re cash/HAM. The annual price/volume pattern is a common gap up followed by exhaustion. There are simply not enough HAM buyers for all the current and would-be sellers.

      Also, the fibonacci’s are equally valid for any natural phenomenon including market characteristics of volume/sales/prices. The examples above already show the equally important 50% fibonacci ratio – ie. half of the two complexes are empty which should be telling RE speculators something very important: long is wrong – you’re about to get burned.

      Technicals and superstition make a powerful combination.

      • Like a giant star that has burned itself out and is about to go Super Nova. Didn’t some one else mention an anology to Elvis Presley the other day.

        Fibonacci…Presley….Super Nova…….the puzzle pieces all fit together.

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