Realtor Chat – “There is little actionable support out there. A best guess low may be early 2014. … Sadly, we don’t live in a perfect world.”

“There is little actionable support out there. The sense we Realtor types get from our coffee sessions is that everybody is waiting and digesting the mortgage rule changes. The scary part is nobody will really know when the bottom hits. By the time we get there and figure it out it will have passed.
The Vancouver real estate market is a box of chocolates. A best guess low may be early 2014. A better wish to come true would be a steady flat market for 5 to 10 years. Those markets are good for everybody. The reality is that some politician will screw the whole thing up and we’ll all wish we bought something “back then”.”

Larry Yatkowsky, local realtor, at his blog yattermatters.com, 1 Dec 2012 8:07pm

And sounding like testimony before a Senate committee:
“I readily acknowledge that I and my fellow Realtors are called a lot of things and yes we are known to say a lot of things that in many instances are on the edge of truth. By the same token, buyers and sellers tell us a lot of things that approach the same edge. It is neither right nor is it perfect. Each circumstance, individual and piece of information needs to be weighed, judged and acted upon its own merit. … Humans are prone to do what ever they feel is morally acceptable to them as a group or individually to get the upper hand over the other guy. In a perfect world equity for all would prevail. Sadly, we don’t live in one.”
– Larry Y, 2 Dec 2012 5:41pm, same thread as above

22 responses to “Realtor Chat – “There is little actionable support out there. A best guess low may be early 2014. … Sadly, we don’t live in a perfect world.”

  1. How come there is never any discussion about how badly indebted Canadians are amongst realtor conversations? During those periods of price increases, real estate associations were always harping on price increases, but avoided what really was the true driver of this market – cheap credit & speculation that prices can only go up. I remember when CMHC released the Housing Observer, was there even any mention of the word “debt” in there? They talked about boomers downsizing creating demand for age-friendly dwellings.. But no talk about the units boomers are selling…most realtors live in a fantasyland of sunshine and lollipops… I understand some do not. Anyone who brings this debt topic up, and how we are at unsustainable levels of debt growth, or even worse deleveraging… would be accused of the sky falling. Its their interpretation the sky is falling. Just had to get that out of my system. Please carry on

    • It may be indirect, but it’s there. Realtors are always saying, to each other and to their buyer clients, that it’s very important to get a mortgage pre-qualification before going shopping.

      And hey, what’s Gary Mauris, president of Dominion Lending Centres, saying to mortgage brokers at their annual trade show? “The biggest growth is in the “B space…Become a “B” expert.” — http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/12/a-few-last-caamp-forum-tidbits.html

    • Petr -> Yes, agreed.
      When a well known local condo salesman talked about the billions of dollars that boomers were sitting on in SFHs, that he imagined would be freed up to buy condos in coming years, he made no mention of the young people who would have to go into billions of dollars of debt to facilitate that move.

  2. Bottom for sales or a bottom for prices?

    • Geez, the guy has to call his shot? Isn’t it significant enough that an agent is coming out and saying publicly that this year sucked, next year is going to be worse, and it might stop getting worse in 18 months?

      • They guy is claiming that a bottom will only be realised after it passes. I’m not sure if that’s tautological or naive.

        BTW did he state “equity for all would prevail” in a perfect world? I don’t know if the guy’s a poet or just doesn’t proof-read.

      • Ralph Cramdown

        “a bottom will only be realised after it passes…”

        That part I understand. It goes to stock markets, where rallies off the bottom can be explosive — if you missed the first few days of the few biggest rallies in the last 50 years, your return could be down significantly versus a buy-n-hold grinder. RE agents have appropriated this as if it applies in THEIR market, but charts show that it does not. Pull up a chart for Case Shiller Miami. It would appear we’re already a year off the bottom, but late investors haven’t missed much. Likely you could wait another year or two and, if your holding period is five years or longer, you’d have a better compound annual return than if you bought now.

  3. Why does that second LarryIsm so redolent of Nuremberg and, “I vas onlee following zeee orderz.”

  4. “Edge of truth”. Nicely crafted, Larry! And you wonder why you and your colleagues are called names.

  5. Was in lansdowne last week and was awestruck at how many small business store fronts were empty. Also, the dollar store is closing, and the all you can eat sushi place that’s been around for decades has shut down. A lot of businesses are quitting, and I smell a recession coming on.

  6. “A better wish to come true would be a steady flat market for 5 to 10 years. Those markets are good for everybody.”

    Steady flat markets are good for everybody, eh? Why was nobody saying that 5 years ago?

  7. Terminalcitygirl

    So is Larry saying there are 3 parties to a transaction, the agent, the buyer and the seller who have different needs/ wants for information? Aren’t RE agents supposed to act in their clients best interests? Fiduciary duty or something something. In that case information “on the edge of truth” between an agent and heir client would be an ethical breach, no?

    • No it’s ok, because some buyers and sellers are also on the edge of truth.[/sarcasm]
      Blaming the client tends to be bad for business, but who knows in realtorland…

  8. Larry’s jaw must get tired from constantly talking out of both sides of his mouth…

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