Robyn Adamache, CMHC market analyst – “Vancouver is down 9% from the 2011 peak.”

“On the CBC Radio Early Edition this morning [13 Nov 2012], a few minutes before 7:00 am, Rick Cluff interviewed CMHC market analyst Robyn Adamache, who will be speaking this morning at the CMHC conference in Vancouver. No mention at all of a bubble, and the typical positive spin — “market may decline 1% in 2013” — but there were a couple of interesting things. She said Vancouver (I’m assuming broadly across the Lower Mainland) is down 9% from the 2011 peak. I’m assuming she has access to comprehensive and current data not generally available. And at the end of the interview, with Cluff pushing her pretty heavily on whether now was a good time to buy, given the price slump, she adamantly remained on the fence, and wouldn’t state an opinion. Rather interesting if you’re saying, at the same time, that the market will be stable in 2013.
There may be some followup stories in the local media about the half-day CMHC conference, although I doubt there will be any great revelations, or admissions of any impending serious problems with RE. Given CMHC’s role in all of this, they are probably controlling their message pretty carefully these days.”

– Froogle Scott, via e-mail to vreaa, 13 & 14 Nov 2012

28 responses to “Robyn Adamache, CMHC market analyst – “Vancouver is down 9% from the 2011 peak.”

  1. The crack pusher’s analyst is on the fence about her own product?
    We’re screwed.

    • It seems CMHC is seeing reason to hesitate.

      • CMHC is virtually bankrupt. If you look at their balance sheet, there is no way they are going to survive an 10% correction nationwide. She’s about to look for another job in the near future…

      • Naked Official #9003

        Comrades! Pay no attention to the infirm and feeble minded analyst!

        Strongly recommend continued resolute purchases in this treaty port!

        Onward and upward!

      • “The Gods of wealth enter the home from everywhere, wealth, treasures and peace beckon!” [Lulu caishen jin jiamen, zhao cai zhao bao zhao ping’an (路路财神近家门, 招财招宝肇平安)]

        http://tinyurl.com/c79c4yx

      • Naked Official #9008

        I’ve seen this before, but I’ve never noticed the piles of American cash! Haha

  2. How can anyone really take CMHC analyses seriously? Don’t forget that our distinguished BCREA scholar economist Cameron Muir formerly held the CMHC analyst job.

  3. CMHC must have moral hazard to bias them not to talk market down. It’s one thing to talk to facts of about what has happened, aka the 9% drop, if that is accurate. It’s another to forecast a second year of dropping like that which would mean nearly a 20% hit or nearly all their client base that purchased in last couple years underwater. The latter comment implying risk on the CMHC books.

  4. Vancouver is very cheap! Very affordable! Buy now! We are the Hong Kong of Canada!…compared to Hong Kong, China http://www.theprovince.com/business/Hong+Kong+condo+sells+nearly+million/7540995/story.html

  5. I was wondering why these guys look at averages when there are far better measures of market strength out there, then I realised they care about volume*average_price, not any same-sales or hedonic measures because it tells them nothing about their issuance volumes.

    Stick with Teranet and MLS-HPI. If you like eating soup with a fork, go with the average. If anyone cites average prices it’s an indication they’re trying to sell you insurance or debt.

    On a related note, I’m sure we can pull up some previous CMHC predictions of 2012 for Vancouver and see how they fared, from “The Archives”. As of now it’s looking like we’ll be down about -4% in mid-winter (according to Teranet).

    • don’t recall … how does teranet treat new construction?

      • If a new construction or another reno significantly increases the value of the property above what other properties are indicating, the datum is excluded on grounds of material change to utility.

        If a newly-constructed property is sold, then resold, it would be included in the dataset.

      • thanks … it was something that has bothered me about paired comps … where there is a lot of new or reno

      • rod, the Teranet methodology won’t catch all instances. For example someone can do a relatively minor reno but still book a decent price increase (say kitchen worth $40K). There are a few checks they have for this and estimate the amount of renos and depreciations will roughly balance out. It’s worth noting that to tread water as per the Teranet index it requires the structure to be in roughly the same condition under which it was bought. Those who see their structures degrade and don’t keep them up with a reasonable amount of maintenance costs will be disappointed in the returns vis a vis the benchmark.

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