“Three houses in my neighbourhood no longer have for sale signs up, as of today. Guess they gave up. I’m sure they’ll be back trying to sell in the spring.”

“Did a walk around my neighbourhood today in south surrey and noticed 3 houses that have been for sale since at least spring that no longer have for sale signs as of today. Guess gave up, I’m sure they’ll be back trying to sell in the spring. Inventory will probably drop off significantly Nov 1 after October expirations.”
Groundhog at VCI 26 Oct 2012 5:33 pm

Yeah. Spring inventory will very likely be made up of:
1. Normal annual spring new-listings, plus
2. Everybody who couldn’t sell in 2012, plus
3. Those who have gotten wind of where prices are heading and have decided to come to market earlier than intended.
In other words, regular supply, plus that left over from the past, plus that sucked forward from the future.
A convergence of supply.
– vreaa

31 responses to ““Three houses in my neighbourhood no longer have for sale signs up, as of today. Guess they gave up. I’m sure they’ll be back trying to sell in the spring.”

  1. I suspect they’ll be back trying to sell during/around Chinese New Years time – this is when the last year weak peak occurred, wait to see these homes with the sale signs in February again!

  2. UBCghettodweller

    Point Grey, Dunbar and Kits are showing the same patterns.

    Going out for a jog these days is eye opening in more than the way that exercise is as good as caffeine at waking me up in the morning.

  3. We’ve got a shack in our neighbourhood that has been listed for 90 days at $999K with no takers……………….

    Now, it has been just been re-listed with a totally different property pimp at $949K and the emphasis on the ad is about the rental income from the “carriage house”……..or, to tell the truth, the teeny tiny rooftop studio apartment on top of the garage out back…..LOL !!! I thought this trend was limited to YVR.

    http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12529520&PidKey=734213837

    • Rusty's Real Estate Acumen

      dude, that’s way more house for $950k than you would get in vancouver

      listen to me, i’ve been here too long

      • UBCghettodweller

        Try looking at million dollar houses in LA or San Diego. Then you’re really reminded of how delusional things are in “the best place on earth.”

    • At least you’re close to a fire station…

      However, the future commercial development around this site, that already has poor access, will make getting in and out of the neighbourhood a pure nightmare. Or, at least worse than it is now.

      My bid: $400,000. Caveat: Only if you can guarantee that there will be renters in the basement as well as over the garage (and removal of all the cheap fake granite is included).

      • Carioca Canuck

        It gets better…….across the street 2 houses down, is an retirement community, as well as a long term care facility. On sunny days it looks like the wheelchair version of the Indy 500 is taking place on the street.

  4. A few months ago I posted about a friend’s brother who was trying to sell his house in North Burnaby and eventually pulled the listing. It never came back. But I drive past it everyday on my way to work and I’m amazed at how many signs have popped up in the same area. In the two blocks of Duthie between Greystone and Hastings I count 8 signs. (That’s not counting the half dozen signs at the corner of Duthie and Curtis pointing to other properties up and down Curtis). This has been my commute for about 5 years, and there were no signs along there for a long time so I suspect these are long term owners who are late to the game looking to cash out. I’ll keep count to see if the numbers go up or down. I haven’t seen a “Sold” sticker anywhere on Duthie in recent memory.

  5. …regular supply, plus that left over from the past, plus that sucked forward from the future. A convergence of supply

    A perfect storm?

  6. Better to list at an attractive market before the train really starts to head south. There are still suckers out there. Catch them while you can!

    • Choo choo indeed.
      I guess that whole ‘Summers dead, Fall will be nuts’ thing just didn’t pan out.

      Oh well, a broken clock is correct twice I seem to recall.

      • @ Loon
        If you are so smart, then what do you think is happening?
        Think intelligently. Go on give it a try..it does work for many people

      • @pretzels

        We haven’t even started with a price slide. I’m firmly with VREAA that we will have a convergence of listings in the spring.

        RE buying/selling is a seasonal – it tracks emotion and hormones, but without easy financing this spring and the new rules in play – we should a massive spike in inventory earlier on next year, probably unlike anything we’ve seen before.

        My 1.7 cents, are you still thirsty ?

      • Rusty's Got Big Dreams

        i am!

      • What is interesting is that prices are falling even as supply declines. I think this market is exhausted, but more significantly, that there is hesitancy and indecision being shown by both buyers and sellers at this stage. The bubble in Vancouver has burst. It only remains to be seen how quickly it will deflate. We all hope for a soft landing but that does not seem likely given the problems being experienced outside the country. Perhaps it will be a long slow grind down from here but I rather doubt it given the global macro backdrop. Can anybody else see a reason why our trade numbers might be rising as the competitive currency devaluation process between the big players continues month after month? Our dollar is already fairly strong and is currently well above its old lows. Yet we are between a rock and a hard place in this country as US Fed policy dictates low interest rates effectively emasculating Bank of Canada policy initiatives. It has become nearly impossible for the BoC to move on rates without creating a hazardous carry trade in C$ in an environment where so many billions of dollars are sloshing about the globe looking for even the slimmest of yield. So rates must stay low which is why the days of credit based consumption are not yet behind us and household debt will continue to rise for some time. Probably the last thing we need is for the C$ to rise too quickly which as we know can be disastrous for some of our key exporters.That means we are essentially forced to comply with Fed policy moves or risk our dollar strengthening more which will further damage our industrial base. In short, we are going down with the US dollar and if anyone doubts that they had better think twice about who our major trade partners are. So what happens in America is very critical to our countries health. Strategically, our manufacturers should be making every effort to diversify away from the risks entailed by a faltering US economy burdened by massive unrepayable debt and a political system in near paralysis. Easier said than done of course. It can take many years to shift from one market to another in any meaningful way as new relationships are established. And this is where the idealism that drove the efforts towards globalization begin to show real weakness.We may be too interconnected globally while simultaneously too dependant on a single large market and that brings serious risk even for strong economies. In truth, we are all in the same small boat now and it is only by rowing together that we will remain successful. In the bigger picture though a C$ forced to devalue along with the greenback means that our buying power must by dictates erode alongside of it. Economic problems in the US are effectively becoming a tax on the Canadian economy and as the Chinese move towards a consumption economy this will become increasingly stark as the costs of their imported goods rise in our own currency. It is just one of the ways we will be paying the piper over the coming years as we work off the past excesses. The world is not endig but we will likely feel a little poorer once all the smoke has cleared.

      • UBCghettodweller

        Farmer, I like your posts. But please break it up in to paragraphs. My eyeballs hurt.

      • Okee Dokee. Thanks for the kind words.

      • Rusty needs more data

        I really enjoy your posts, Farmer – can you tell me your opinion on the upcoming FIPA with China? It’s obviously going through (as quickly and as quietly as they can) I heard Diane Francis got the cold shoulder from Rex Murphy on CBC the other day.

      • Yes. Rusty needs more rest. A six pack of Kokanee should do the trick. It cures broken hearts and the common cold. Helps you sleep better too. Fipa creepa meanwhile will melt your brain and steal your soul. Avoid reading about it at all cost.

      • Rusty's Can't Do the Heavy Lifting

        well it’s a good thing my name isn’t rusty

        lay it on me – on all of us!

      • +++ farmer … if you don’t mind me adding a bit to your volume … one should always be mindful of the scale and relevance of the maple kingdom’s 1.5T economy plus 35M pop that fits somewhere between TX and CA … that although there are borders, a flag and its own currency, there is effectively zero economic autonomy (the only kind that really matters) … trade with asia could be cut off entirely and life would go on … not the same for the southern satellite … when push comes to shove, policy is always dictated from dc and ny … 6 rolls of rusty’s royale soft says … “on the world stage, all major nations behave like gangs … and all the minor ones like prostitutes” 😀 😀 😀

  7. I think that you could add another category for profit takers.

    These are people that bought long ago and are looking to turn paper gains in to monetary gains. If they bough before the run up they can sell at a large discount and still be making a profit.

  8. Does anyone have an update for the MC2 that started selling yesterday?

    • Drove by around 2pm today, tents still outside (assuming for the line ups?) and about 20 propane heaters bunched together for transport. A total of 15 “buyers” milling around. I’m pretty sure there were more sales people at that point in the day anyways. Still plenty to buy if you really want to. Yikes!

  9. Traffic is much less in the late fall, given the overhead in selling the return on effort is less. 2013 will be a fascinating year, assuming the Mayans had it wrong

      • Rusty's Got Big Dreams

        this made me laugh

      • If that’s a discarded ‘johnny’ fluttering around up there… I sure don’t want to meet the JollyGiant who tossed it…

        GoodTheory, though… hmmm… now where did I put my vintage copy of “ProjectBlueBook”….

        [NoteToEd: Once upon a time, I did actually have an authorized FirstEdition… but, alas… I have yet, VIP lounges excepted, to personally experience a CelestialBodies of IndeterminateOrigin CloseEncounter – of any kind.]

    • Rusty's skeptical side

      It’s obviously a large, transluscent solar balloon.

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