Arguments With Myself – “The perception of offshore money pouring into the area to acquire properties without foreigners even visiting them has been overstated.”

“The perception of offshore money pouring into the area to acquire properties without foreigners even visiting them has been overstated, said Cameron Muir, chief economist at the B.C. Real Estate Association.” – from ‘UniverCity condo project feels market chill’, G&M, 23 Oct 2012

Gee. And where would people have gotten that impression?:

“There are high-net-worth Asian purchasers buying as investments, as second homes, or for satellite families.”Cameron Muir, chief economist for the British Columbia Real Estate Association, Businessweek, 24 Jun 2010

Off-shore buyers have had a small but significant direct effect on prices, and a very, very large indirect effect as a story that has fuelled locals in their speculative buying. We’ve consistently believed that.
– vreaa

18 responses to “Arguments With Myself – “The perception of offshore money pouring into the area to acquire properties without foreigners even visiting them has been overstated.”

  1. …”small but significant direct effect”…

    Bigger than you think, IllustriousEd… but, agreed, by no means the only factor… Heuristically speaking, I would guesstimate the OffshoreEffect’s impact on YVR pricing in aggregate at anywhere from 1/3 to 1/2 of current distortions… If we were to zero in on specific MicroMarkets it could well be 100%.

    Never mind all that, though… let’s dust off our ComparativeAnalytical ToolKit and have a look at a BubbleLiciousMarket with some, ah… ah…, ‘similarities’… [and, far more importantly, the ‘novel’ political solution they have just enacted]… ShallWe? [#GoodForGander/GoodForGoose]….

    [BloomBerg] – .H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals on Bubble Risks: Speculators Targeted

    …”Hong Kong’s government announced its first property tax targeted at overseas buyers, stepping up efforts to cool home prices as U.S. monetary easing and record- low interest rates raise the risk of a bubble.

    Non-local and corporate buyers will have to pay a 15 percent tax upon purchase, Financial Secretary John Tsang told reporters at a press conference yesterday. The government also raised a resale tax on property by about 5 percentage points and extended the period during which it will apply to three years from two….

    …Property owners who sell their homes within six months of their purchase will need to pay a 20 percent special stamp duty, up from 15 percent, Tsang said. For resale between seven months and 12 months, the duty will increase to 15 percent, and transactions between 13 months to 36 months, the duty will be 10 percent.

    “The current housing supply lags behind the soaring demand; we need to work on the demand-side measures,” Tsang said. “These measures target specifically property investors who resell the flats within three years, but not the genuine end-users.”…

    [NoteToEd: Conspicous by virtue of its absence, are any suggestions by HK ‘urbanists’/politicos to ‘solve’ the crisis by…. introducing SkinnyStreets™.]

    • Forgive me, IllustriousEd… but I couldn’t resist a little PoeticLicense as regards the following, Quote ‘O TheWeekEnd!….

      ‘Right now there are gangsters out there communicating about killing our RE Market and we can’t intercept that.’ – Warren Lemcke, Deputy Chief of Police, Vancouver

      [CBC] – Police need new internet surveillance tools, say chiefs: Bill C-30 would give police access to internet communications without a warrant

      …”The Canadian Association of Police Chiefs is calling on the federal government to pass its controversial internet surveillance bill so police can fight cybercrime more effectively.

      Association president and Vancouver police Chief Jim Chu* says he is concerned Bill C-30 will die on the order paper, meaning officers investigating criminal activity on cellphones and the internet will still have to get a warrant every time they want to intercept communications by cybercriminals.”….

      [NoteToED: *This from the SameGuy who said, “No worries, we’ve got you covered!” Just before that little HockeyMishap… or to be more blunt, the Chief answers to CityHall… but to whom is CityHall accountable? Hint: campaigns are…. ‘expensive’.]

    • Wonderful juxtaposition of quotes, VREAA.

      And Nem, I wrote to City Hall again about 8 weeks ago asking about the possibility of levying just the kinds of taxes described in your post above. Nobody answered the letter.

      • Egads, Epte!…. you “wrote” to CityHall!… that’s… that’s… that’s so ‘OldSchool’! Shade’s ‘o MontBlanc!… Didn’t you know?…

        Here’s what they would rather you did… [much rather, as it’s so much ‘tidier’ than having all those “LittlePeople” jostling about, elbowing and annoying the RealMovers&Shakers at CityHall™ not to mention wasting countless hours of their PA’s time responding to SnailMail]…

        “For me what was interesting was blending social media with urban planning.” – Yuri Artibise

        [VancouverSun] – Start-up gives people voice on municipal issues: Creators have famous names in urban planning circles

        …”Their fathers helped shape Metro Vancouver as it is today, but Jus-ten Harcourt, Yuri Artibise and Colleen Hardwick hope to have a hand in influencing the region of the future.

        The trio are involved in PlaceSpeak, a new start-up that provides a virtual consultation forum – or, as Harcourt suggests, “civic engagement for the new generation.”

        Through the click of a mouse, citizens can be connected online with local issues in their specific neighbourhoods.”…

        [NoteToEpte: at the very real risk of belabouring the obvious, here’s how it works… Tell TheGoodBurghers you have a MagicInterNetBox™… a box that will aggregate, amplify and transmit their collective political voice to those SnootyMovers&Shakers @ CityHall! In reality of course, what you don’t tell them is that TheIndustry™ and their HandPicked cronies own the MagicInterNetBox™. Their objective is nothing less than the reintermediation of YVR’s civic political discourse to their mutual CommercialAdvantage – by making themselves the GoToBoyz&Girlz when you want or need an issue addressed. Needless to say, they decide on the issues… and how those issues are “framed”. That’s how you control the dialogue. In this particular instance I would heartily recommend you consult the GroundBreaking work of political scientist Janine Wedel, Professor of Public Policy, George Mason University re: Flexians™…]

        [NoteToEd: there was a day, a GoldenEra… let’s call it the CamelotLost of YVR journalism… when a CheekyJourno or SubEditor could well have slipped a different leader onto that piece – and had it stick… e.g. “Who’sYerDaddy!? TaxPayer Funded CronyStartUP Seeks to Dominate CivicDiscourse to DevelopersAdvantage”. Of course, in those days – the NewsRoom didn’t KowTow to Advertising.]

      • THanks for this info, Nem.

    • Rusty's estranged mother

      Ah you brighten my day with your logic

      Lovely weather we’re having

  2. Brilliant, Vreaa.

    It frustrates me to no end that these “pundits” can say whatever they like in the news and they are never held accountable.

    You, and a select few bloggers, are the only ones holding their feet to the fire.

  3. “‘Right now there are gangsters out there communicating about killing our RE Market and we can’t intercept that.’ – Warren Lemcke, Deputy Chief of Police, Vancouver”
    Amazing what can be justified in the name of “collective good.”

  4. dig a little deeper and analyze the rejection of the Petronas bid for Progress Oil.. and you will find overheated Canada real estate.
    The government needs to restrict capital from coming to Canada first, then they can raise rates. The debt party is coming to an end, quite suddenly in fact. They punished savers and frugal people for years and years. Will they now punish those who lived beyond their means? Somehow I doubt it.

  5. I believe the perception.
    When I was renting in east Burnaby, I got a call from my landlord’s agent stating that the landlord (from offshore) was going to be in Vancouver for a few days and would like to come by in a few days to see the place. Seems like they bought it “sight unseen” and had actually never before seen the unit. I said “no problem”. Nice people…I took them on a tour of “their” building as well. I think they spent more time buying their last pair of shoes than they did this condo. (Must be nice to have money to throw-around like that).

  6. I’ve been watching this Univercity bubble expand for years. I work at SFU and considered buying in years ago. Construction up there only started about 10 years ago. Nobody actually knows what a condo up there is inherently worth. The entire development has only ever existd within a speculative bubble. Once it bursts, Univercity could drop very very far before it actually finds support in some fundamental. Which would likely be set by whatever level you can make money renting to students, I mean the kind that don’t have bottomless bank accounts magically refilled from overseas. $1300 for a studio is not something the average student can afford. Think more like 4 people in a three bedroom townhouse form$1300.

  7. Yikes! RoboRedaktor stikes again, ED! Help! &It’s a JuicyOne! – reply to Epte…

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