“The political strategist and lobbyist behind Gordon Campbell and Christy Clark’s rise to the premiership has slashed the price of his Shaughnessy mansion by $1.082 million.”

“British Columbia’s man of political intrigue is reaping the rewards at the racetrack, but not so much in the luxury housing market.
Patrick Kinsella was the leading co-owner at Hastings Racecourse for the 2012 meet that ended Sunday. The political strategist and lobbyist behind Gordon Campbell and Christy Clark’s rise to the premiership has slashed the price of his Shaughnessy mansion by $1.082 million.
The 100-year-old, four-storey, 6,441 square-foot house at 3839 Selkirk was listed in July 2011 by Rennie and Associates Realty for $7.28 million. There were no takers. Kinsella and his wife Brenda switched agents to Macdonald Realty BGW, which is now asking $6.198 million. The price has fallen 14.8 per cent since July 2011.
Kinsella is not alone. Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver figures show there were 32.5 per cent fewer sales in September 2012 than a year earlier. The Vancouver West benchmark price fell 6.5 per cent to $2.09 million. It was the worst September in a decade.
University of B.C. associate professor Tsur Somerville said west side, West Vancouver and Richmond properties are under pressure. Immigrants and investors who were snapping up properties in 2010 and 2011 have “moved from getting a unit at any price to — if they are buying — buying for the best price they can,” he said.
“In any downturn, luxury homes tend to be more cyclical than starter homes. In the slowing market the luxury homes tend to get hit harder,” Somerville said.”

– from ‘Mansion Market Slide Hits Kinsella, Powerbroker to Campbell, Clark’, The Tyee, 15 Oct 2012 [hat-tip Terminalcitygirl; many thanks]

Sorry, now I’m confused…
Are Westside homes resistant to any downturn, or are they expected to “get hit harder”?
For the record, for new readers, we are on record as having asserted that, in the end, all property types and all property areas will get hit by about the same devastating percentage loss, peak to trough.
– vreaa

18 responses to ““The political strategist and lobbyist behind Gordon Campbell and Christy Clark’s rise to the premiership has slashed the price of his Shaughnessy mansion by $1.082 million.”

  1. I like to think high priced mansions sell at discounts because the seller found a far better use for the money. I don’t see any problem here, the guy is, after all, 71.

    There was a place sold in mid 2010 in that neighbourhood that went for way lower than ask. Later on in the year prices increased about 20-30%.

  2. Dammit tsurd pick a side.
    Didn’t he say a few months ago that the luxury market will hold its value.

    • I’d like to see some attribution.

    • matt ->
      “If there was a large number of unsold units coming onto the market or a huge change in the economic environment, Somerville said, “that would really cause prices to tank.”
      “Most people don’t have to sell their house,” he said. “You bought it for $200,000. The price is now $150,000. Unless you have to, why would you sell it?”
      For prices to go down ­significantly, contended Somerville, “You need people who have to sell, either because the economy has collapsed and they don’t have any income or developers have built a whole bunch of units that are unsold and the bank is screaming at them or foreclosing or something like that.”
      None of those conditions appears imminent.
      Somerville said it would take “some negative shock,” such as an ­economic meltdown or mortgage interest rates jumping from four per cent to nine or 10 per cent, to trigger lower prices.
      “The euro melting down would cause one of those [shocks],” he said. “If the Canadian government changes its immigration policy and slammed the door on wealthy Asian immigrants, that would affect ­[prices].
      “I don’t have a crystal ball but if I had to guess I would be more likely to guess this kind of lower sales/flat prices is more likely to continue.”


      – from ‘B.C. Real Estate: ‘You can’t burst a bubble that wasn’t there’, The Province, 10 Sep 2012 [hat-tip Don]

      • Tsur has no idea that prices are set at the margin? And this guy is a real estate analyst / tenured professor? I’m embarrassed for him. He also seems to be ignoring the negative “wealth effects” that lower RE prices will have on everyone, including those who don’t sell.

      • A great quote for the record. In terms of “negative shock” I would include more personal circumstances; owners bridging illiquid markets are betting on the trifecta of “not death and not divorce and not relocation”. Sometimes things get a bit too personal.

    • Here is a Somerville prediction about SFH outperforming condos from 6/25/2012:

      “Vancouver’s new housing affordability initiative may have the effect of increasing the value of single detached homes, while providing a moderating influence on prices for condos and townhomes, according to Tsur Somerville, director, Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate, Sauder School of Business at the University of B.C. “If this is successful, I’d expect higher single family prices than they’d be otherwise,” said Somerville Monday of the plan, which will see the city become more involved in the housing development business.

      Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Affordability+initiative+could+hike+value+single+detached+home+analyst/6838805/story.html#ixzz29U6PZ7dG

    • The disconnect in Vancouver’s housing market between people buying as an investment with their wealth and those who are reliant on their income to purchase a home creates a very different dynamic, said Tsur Somerville, director at the University of B.C.’s Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate at the Sauder School of Business.

      “The inflow of capital by immigrants and investors has helped drive housing prices in a number of neighbourhoods in the Lower Mainland. Were that to dry up or be reduced, that would put downward pressure on housing prices,” Somerville said.

      But just how much prices could come down, he would not predict.

      “I have no idea and given what we don’t know, you can’t really model the market,” Somerville said. “It’s very hard to figure out what’s going on in Vancouver because there are all kinds of don’t knows. We don’t know how many of those buyers are foreign buyers, you don’t know how many are strict investment, you don’t know how many are permanent residents, and you don’t know how many are occupying their units.”

      Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/estimates+decline+Metro+Vancouver+home+prices/6525619/story.html#ixzz29U88W8Ue

  3. Still waaaaay above assessed value ($4M)

    Or maybe he had friends who could keep the assessment low?

  4. On first read I thought that headline said, “…slashed price to 1.082 million.” So my next thought was why not put it under 1 million for CMHC. oops, those aren’t mansion prices here.

  5. The only part of this story that mystifies me – apart from BR’s apparent lack of effort/enthusiasm on Kinsella’s behalf – is why anyone would spend MultipleMillions on a MirkwoodMausoleum™.

    “Who’s next?…. Perhaps, you?”…. Muhahahahahahahaha…..

    • “Tales From The Crypt” Redux… or should that be, “AdvertorialTales of An Enigmatic Government Insider’s Crib”… evidently, caught OffGuard with his MarketingPants down, BR responded to our taunt with a timely ‘placement’ on his client’s behalf…

      [TimesColonic] – Photos: A Liberal insider’s Shaughnessy mansion

      “A Shaughnessy mansion owned by enigmatic B.C. Liberal insider Patrick Kinsella is for sale at about $6.5 million. Here are some pictures from the official listing for 3839 Selkirk St. on rennierealty.com.”

      http://tinyurl.com/9k3e322

      [NoteToEd: Anyone who tells you we don’t enjoy a ‘FreePress’ is clearly talking through their sphincter. That ‘story’ didn’t cost a sou.]

  6. Kinsella may be in a position of having to sell his house since Christy Clark has announced that the privatization of the Liquor Distribution Centre is off. He was heavily involved in that whole debacle as a lobbyist and was probably promised some financial bonus at completion of the deal (now definitely dead). He personifies “the old boys’ club”.

    • Yeah, I thought that was why Coleman was sticking around…..to stickhandle the Liquor Distribution “privatization” money over to all his buddies. I guess now that’s off the table he’ll be next to jump off Krusty’s sinking ship….

  7. alex c also noted los local luxo lots not leading lessers … aberrant! abhorrent? most unlike all elsewhere post-pop panamerica … hmmm … one wonders why? 😮 … iconjecture ~ most vanwest pure palatial premium NOT! – as in how i rememberz it – shaughnessy yes, dunbar no, richmond no, oakridge no, cambie no, do-do-do-da-da-da … could it be? los ‘lotto luxes’, got no real cash, just caa-razy leverage … oh the perversity! … http://tinyurl.com/9787ghl

  8. Apropos of nothing, I just came up with this one:
    Coming soon to a neighbourhood near you, HOMEPHOBIA! The fear of being trapped underwater in a depreciating too-small condo with a huge special assessment coming up because all the broke specuvestors voted down the recommended preventive maintenance.

    • Homephobia might be worth including as a “type of anecdote” as we enter the bust phase of this monumental bubble. No examples here yet, but they will certainly come. Examples abound in all the areas well into the bust.

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