“Every time the conversation has gone to real estate in the past, the verdict has always been that Vancouver will never go down. Now, all of a sudden, these same people are saying that the bubble is “finally” bursting.”

“I’ve been running with the same fairly large group for a year now. Every time the conversation has gone to real estate, the verdict has always been that Vancouver will never go down. Now, all of a sudden, these same people are saying that the bubble is “finally” bursting, and the group members are teaching each other new terms like, “under water.” It’s amazing how fast it goes.”
N at VCI 18 Sep 2012 at 9:13pm

In years to come, these same people will also tell themselves that (1) they ‘knew’ all along that it was a bubble and (2) they didn’t act because, who could have known it was a bubble? (backed by the related falsehood “You can’t identify a bubble while it is happening”, care of Greenspan and others.)
Yes, we know that’s a complete contradiction, and makes no sense, but, humans are like that.
– vreaa

16 responses to ““Every time the conversation has gone to real estate in the past, the verdict has always been that Vancouver will never go down. Now, all of a sudden, these same people are saying that the bubble is “finally” bursting.”

  1. Your friends and others consider it a conversation topic right now, because they assume it will all blow over within a year. Once their property value drops 35% and is still falling over a year from now, they won’t consider it a conversation topic anymore.

  2. I was one of these people. But things have change and you need to adjust to what’s really going on outside, not inside your mind.

    • I always believed in the Vancouver housing market but was clear headed enough to keep an eye on the signs, and when those signs showed weakness, I didn’t hesitate. I got out late 2011 and feel I dodged the biggest, nastiest financial bullet of my life.
      Losing 35% would’ve wiped me out, as I had a very expensive house where 75% of my equity was.

      • Got out at the end of 2010. Lots of friend and family said that I will be locked out of the market and I will never be able to buy again. I called it bullsh*t.

        We can safely assume most people are full of it. If someone changes his/her word to suite the context of conversation it means what they say is not worth a penny.

  3. Polite dinner conversations about nascent signs of a bubble bursting is fun, in part because it’s only in the news. Enjoy these times because if prices are going to drop 40% things become less abstract.

    • Normalcy bias is a bitch that everyone loves to love, even as she slits their throats.
      We’ll be blamed for this when it hits hard, guaranteed.

    • Yeah. I still have many friends in California. And I never bring up bubbles, mortgages, etc. It would be like farting at your metaphorical dinner party.

  4. A friend of mine who owns and should probably sell now since she’ll be retiring and downsizing in the next 5-10 year didn’t know the term under water either. Luckily it won’t even describe her, she owns her home outright after many years of prudence and a healthy dose of good timing. But these devastating concepts are not nearly as common outside of the bear blogs as you would think.

  5. It’s nice to be able to point to posts in facebook around the time of the hockey riot where you were pointing out the coming collapse. Tends to either alienate you as a know it all, or sometimes raise people’s opinion of you as someone who actually might know what they’re talking about.

  6. On their way to purchase a distressed WaterfrontCondominium from that notorious brigand Capt. Rennie, ‘Shipmates’ Ishmael and QueeQueg encounter ElijahTheBlogger…

  7. I say that it’s even money that when it all implodes, people will still not relate bear arguments to the-thing-that-happened.

    They’ll think that the bubble talked about here was an irrelevant thing that some silly group of contrarians nattered about to amuse themselves. The REAL bubble was in the burst, (circa 2013, because it’s not mainstream enough yet) … and therefore is clearly a different thing than something people were talking about in 2006.

    • ( I mean, bull-trolls are saying it now, but I imagine that some of my acquaintances, who have thought my position a bit perverse, will continue to see me as a perversity even if what I believe comes true. And I’ll still be perverse the day I buy, because by that time, there’ll be a hella lotta loss.)

      • Don’t worry Absinthe, in their minds you will be a masochist for buying as the MSM will be guiding everyone away from RE.

  8. So how are you going to account for MC2 which is already almost sold-out before the project has even gone public?

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