“I met a realtor today at an open house. He was totally convinced that this was a quite summer lull and that there would be a feeding frenzy come September.”

“I met a realtor today at an open house. He was totally convinced that this was a quite summer lull and that there would be a feeding frenzy come September. He also mentioned that other realtors were very worried that this is the end of the good times, but not him. Essentially he was saying that we should buy now because prices will be shooting up again. I told him good luck with that.”
Loon at VCI 4 Aug 2012 6:47pm

18 responses to ““I met a realtor today at an open house. He was totally convinced that this was a quite summer lull and that there would be a feeding frenzy come September.”

  1. I remember when some guy said that in early 2009. If only I had listened to him instead of telling him to get off my property.

    Seriously though how common are Q4 sales rebounds? Here are Q3-Q4 sales changes from 1999 to 2011: -19% -6% 1% 0% -14% -13% -21% -18% -22% -40% -18% 1% -12%
    Not looking too good…

    • Q3 housing activity is highly effected by seasonal employment changes in the public sector (mainly re-hirings in education sector). You can see how seasonally adjusted to non-seasonally adjusted swings have widened over the years in this chart. http://postimage.org/image/soujo76dp/

      However this year with government job cuts in the education sector, we’re likely to see dampened housing activity compared to last year.

      • @CanadaWatchdog, I was commenting whether a “feeding frenzy come September” is likely. The data indicate it is not. Slightly different numbers: change in average monthly sales Jan-Aug compared to Sep-Dec, 1999-2011:
        -13% -6% 4% -15% 0% -23% -19% -29% -23% -52% 11% -16% -28%
        Only one year — 2009 — had anything close to a “feeding frenzy” with a rise of 11%, however 2009 had a few, ahem, differences to current conditions, not least that 2009 saw the brunt of the “feeding frenzy” take place in the summer months, not in the fall.

        With the deepest respect to Realtors and others who are looking for a bounce in activity in the fall, the numbers simply do not support additional sales activity, though in many years there is additional activity, alas not the type translating to closes; but with the kiddies back at school, an idle mind is the devil’s workshop, as they say.

  2. Ask any realtor: Is it a good time to buy?
    Answer :
    When market going up: YES!….
    When market going down : …… YES!….

    Realtors will never tell you what your best interest is, they only make money when they sell. Think about it

    • Ralph Cramdown

      I don’t have a very high opinion of realtors, but I don’t believe this bias toward homeownership is a symptom of fraudulent misrepresentation for most of them — they honestly believe it. The young ones have never seen a prolonged slump, and it’s in the nature of most successful salesmen that they believe in their product. It’s hard to be successful in commissioned sales unless you believe in yourself and your product to an over-optimistic fault.

      That said, it’s never a good time to ask an agent the future direction of the market. For most of them, the only question they’re qualified to answer is “what’s this place worth right now?”

  3. anonymous guy

    I work in the mortgage business, so I hear lots of back and forth about the Vancouver market. I am quite bearish, and I don’t speak about this stuff unelss spoken to. I believe actions will speak louder than words, specifically the action of the bottom dropping out of the market later this year.
    My boss actually has said today these two gems on the Vancouver Housing Market just today
    1. Vancouver will always go up because all the immigrants are coming to Vancouver or Toronto. They just don’t go to small towns, and this will propel Vancouver up indefinately recession or not, since it will keep Goosing demand.
    2. This Summer’s a terrible market is because of the weather. Because it just got sunny and nice in July, so all the buyers are out at the beach or to busy BBQing to go to open houses.
    3. He just said house prices just don’t go down.

    He’s done extremely well in this business for over a decade, but I think he’s stuck in an old paradigm. He’s very smart, so I often think he knows it’s BS that he keeps chirping, but sometimes I wonder.
    I just shake my head, keep my mouth shut, and am thankful that I’m econmically and financially literate. But the masses who come to “the experts” for huge financial decisions are really lambs heading to slaughter.

    – Anonymous Guy, extra anonymous today

  4. Perhaps OP looked gullible?

    • Well, possibly…we were trolling to get a response. We explained our situation(living at home). I doubt it made a difference though as he was so candid about other realtors negative forecasts for the market. He was almost proud that he was flying in the face of an oncoming sh!t storm.

  5. A feeding frenzy come September? No… the newest most popular theory now is that the Q1 of 2013 is going to be the new market spike, at least temporary. They (realtors) say that under the Chinese influence the market’s cycles changed and now the top of the year is in the second half of Jan – first half of Feb – before and after Chinese New years holiday trips to Canada. Actually this year there was some activity rebound around that time.

  6. anonymous guy

    What a sad commentary on BC’s economy that we have basically stopped depending on our own job market to keep the housing market afloat, and instead depend on whoring ourselves out to the Chinese. By the way, how did the last Chinese Year of the Dragon buying frenzy turn out?
    So do the realtors brainstorm their lies, or do they just rubber stamp each other’s spiel pumping the BPOE?

  7. Renters Revenge

    “Good luck with that.”
    Deliciously passive aggressive and the perfect response to shills of any stripe, given the current circumstances.

  8. unconfirmed report from Australian (an Australian tv show) but no link, says Home Loans are being paid off at record rates. http://www.voy.com/216669/14941.html Note the sector that takes the ‘hit’ if this were to happen in Canada. My theory as to why Australians would be egged on to pay off their mortgage loans by a TV talking head, is given on this forum a few short minutes ago.

    As to the Yang Water Dragon year, make of this what you will:
    “In 2012 the Yang Water Dragon Year starts January 23, 2012 and ends February 9, 2013. The energetic high point of the year is the dragon moon, which is from May 20 to June 18 (new moon is May 20, full moon is June 4 and dragon moon is over June 18. June 19 begins the snake moon, which will set up the energy for the following year, 2013, year of the yin water snake.) http://www.waterdragoninc.com/Feng%20Shui%202012.html

  9. Eveyone will come to Vancouver to buy, those that like inflated prices, months of rain, and are eagerly waiting for the banks to up the mortgage rates. Everyone except the Chinese that are now surf’n USA, sun, cheap RE and lotsa sush. Vancouver is going down, come back in five years for a fair deal.

  10. Housing prices don’t drop overnight. Sellers arent going to drop their prices unless they are desperate. Average prices have already dropped 15% since the peak but because the peak was so high, nobody makes much of a big deal about this. Look at the US, it took 4 years before the bottom was reached. It may take 4 years before you see the huge 50-60% drop that I think real estate should drop. Right now, I think detached homes are about 70-80% overpiced. Yes, I think that 2m dollar new home in Van East should be worth about 600k and that is not unreasonable as I remember only ten years ago, my parents house was worth only about 425k , after they bought it for 225k in 1988. The runup the last ten years is an anomaly and the gains will be erased, like they will be anytime fundamentals are out of whack.

  11. I walked onto a car lot and the salesman told me that that the particular car I seemed interested in was being sold for an excellent price. He seemed very positive about the entire experience.

    • These pretzels are making me thirsty

      More than half the population live in pseudo-existence blinded and enslaved by ignorance and greed.

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