“Has this not been anticipated for months or years?”; “Of course but let’s not spill the beans. We can act like it is a surprise.”

vanpro: “WOW! 14% plunge in SFH avg price in 120 days (-13% since June/11)!! Sales at 10 yr lows and unsold inventory continues to climb. This is now an established downtrend.”

BubbleBoy: “I thought prices weren’t tanking?”

Larry Yatkowsky (realtor): “Tanking – does that mean adjusting?”

bbcoq: “Tanking? Trending lower is more accurate. Markets go up, down and sideways. Has this not been anticipated for months or years?”

Larry Yatkowsky: “Of course but let’s not spill the beans. We can act like it is a surprise.” 🙂

[exchange in comments section at yattermatters.com 1 July 2012]

20 responses to ““Has this not been anticipated for months or years?”; “Of course but let’s not spill the beans. We can act like it is a surprise.”

  1. We can act like it is NOT a surprise and refer back to the tens of thousands of blog posts and articles written in the past 8 years warning people about the dangers of speculation in real estate.

    Or simply choose to believe that things are beyond your control, if it helps you square your own lot.

  2. As per the agent who has sold, he should be commended for having the nuts to stand up against his industry which is always one sided. Hopefully we will see more of his cohorts join ranks to speak the truth. It’s called a market for a reason, it goes up AND down, something that doesn’t exist in the industry and the disgraceful MSM’s biased minds.

    • 4SlicesofCheese

      @coastal, read some of the comments and VREAA’s commentary about the agent that sold in that thread, he is not a great posterboy for bears as some would think.

      I believe he is just an agent with an agenda. Pretending to be on your side.

  3. Perhaps a counterpart to the “Hoocoodanode?” category would be a “Well of course I knew it all along” category.

  4. OT. I had dinner with a good friend of mine last night. He got back from Korea five months ago after four years working there. We were discussing about his work situation as he can’t find a job here and is now considering moving out of Vancouver.

    The trick? He bought two townhouses in Langley, one for him to live in (20% down) and one as an investment (30% down). His father bought four townhouses in the same development (“his retirement plan”), all of them bought with 20% down. He told me: “we got them under market value, the developer gave us a discount”…

    I asked him the question:”if the market goes down by more than 20% in the next 5 years and the bank asks you to put more money into the houses at refinancing time, will you be able to do so?” Puzzled answer: “no”.

    He and his dad have basically put all their savings into that development. These are not the type of people you would imagine being RE speculators (they don’t see themselves as such), but they just don’t have a clue of what’s going on in the RE market here. They’ve bought into what the developer told them…

    So here we are: one unemployed and one retired putting all their savings into RE. How strong can the market be when people like them are so over-leveraged in real-estate? How many people like them on the market?

    • pricedoutfornow

      I like that “we bought for under market value”. You should ask him if it’s really “under market value” if he sold today, would he get more than what he paid for it? I can take a wild guess what the answer would be…..
      People are so dumb.

    • Damn, that is a lot of risk for this family. Some very poor decision-making, in my opinion. I don’t really understand people who feel the need to own multiple units on a shoestring.

  5. beans, beans, everywhere beans. Place them in a jar, and guess the amount. Place them in the ground, and watch them grow.

  6. It’s called market psychology. The MSM and their RE cronies should go to jail for scamming people like this. Oh but this is Vancouver and there’s limited land and everything will go up forever. Pathetic.

    • There’s something in the water, or rain, in Vancouver that creates scams and cons. Anyone remember the good old VSE?

    • I’m also astonished at how the MSM has misled people, with “reports” that have ignored trends and hard facts for months. It’s truly scandalous.

      Talked to a nice neighbour recently who had bought a nearby house several months ago for his parents in Kerrisdale. Now the parents are reluctant to sell their own house (also in Vancouver) because they see the market is slow. This neighbour is an intelligent person and I just had to keep my mouth shut about how much money he and his family could lose.

      “Neighbourhood” life here is very weird in general currently, with so many obviously-long-empty houses still lingering on the market, so many new builds and other places obviously unoccupied or unoccupied except for caretakers, and so many houses looking really abandoned — unkempt and so on. (I’m still talking Kerrisdale here.) Walked by a house yesterday, an old-timer, that has been standing vacant with a surveyor’s stick in the front yard for at least a year now. It had been broken into and the wide-open cellar was full of pizza boxes. Beautiful hardwood floors upstairs, headed for the dump I’m sure.

      How can there be much neighbourhood cohesion when one has no idea who one’s neighbours are (believe me, I’m trying to get to know some), or if they’ll be staying, or if half the street is being torn down? Has anyone ever lived anywhere with this same constellation of unsettling factors? I haven’t.

      Oh, and that house I described some months ago across the lane that was built in 2011 and has never been occupied, 6176 Balsam? Now for sale.
      Hope the builder/owner paid his taxes. I mentioned that neighbours refer to this palace as “The Mausoleum,” and if you Google the address, you’ll see why.

  7. Hi host, looks like I’m stuck in moderation, if you have a chance to liberate me (fwiw).

    • Unstuck. And welcome back.

      • Thanks. Well done to all the sensible bears (and Host Bear in Chief) who called a bubble a bubble and have kept on sounding the horns as Jericho starts to totter.

        Oh, wait, no, aren’t all bear bloggers “spineless”?

        Speaking of spineless, I’d nominate every city and provincial politician who has said not one word — not one word — about what’s happened to this city as the bubble kept expanding.

        Does anyone else feel like we live in a weird anarcho-city? I mean, who makes the money, wields the power, and shapes opinion? I’d say the 1% here is made up of specuvestors (local or jet set), realtors, developers, politicians who don’t have the nerve to stand up to special interests, and the drug industry? And the MSM is in everybody’s pockets.

  8. Vancouver is, and fast becoming was, a perfect storm of housing insanity. Local RE pumpers would have you believe that our market is driven by “fundamentals” of lifestyle (what the hell is that?), climate (which in reality sucks), land scarcity and people’s overwhelming desire, from around the world, to move here. In fact there are a multitude of less savory factors which have pumped the market to such crazy heights. These include social and economic policies that have favored RE expansion at the expense of affordable rental accommodation, tax policies and the encouragement of foreign buyers by preferred treatment. For example did you know that so-called high net worth individuals are not only fast tracked for citizenship but are offered a 5 year tax holiday. Clearly that puts the overseas buyer in an advantaged position over the local resident.

    But it is and always has been unsustainable. Everything always goes up–until it doesn’t. This crash is going to be the mirror equivalent of the rise which will make it nasty indeed.

  9. Pingback: Spot The Speculators #86 – “My unemployed friend bought two townhouses in Langley, one for him to live in (20% down) and one as an investment (30% down). His retired father bought four townhouses in the same development, all of them bought wit

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s