[Ding!] Point Grey SFH Inventory Tops 100

The high-end west side market is ground zero for our bubble.
Point Grey SFH Inventory on MLS today vaulted from 98 to 107.
This is, according to our very informal records, an all-time high.
Examples of (ballpark) peaks in previous years:
47 (2006), 77 (2008), 78 (2010), 81 (Oct 2011)
This time last year, inventory was 61.
Also, an apparent dearth of sales in recent days.
Current asking price range: $1,298,000 to $19,800,000
Median current asking price: $2,598,000

They say that a single bell doesn’t ring at a market top, but there have been numerous bells of minor sorts all over the city in recent weeks, and this is probably one of them.
Our peak has passed, and descent begun.
– vreaa


Update:
In related news, Richmond and Westside Detached June sales at all-time lows.
This from two posts by ‘Inventory’ at VCI 29 Jun 2012 9:46pm:

“Richmond Detached Sales June
1995 = 112
1996 = 114
1997 = 144
1998 = 105
1999 = 135
2000 = 128
2001 = 160
2002 = 139
2003 = 166
2004 = 147
2005 = 248
2006 = 170
2007 = 198
2008 = 115
2009 = 204
2010 = 139
2011 = 158
2012 = 73 **June 28
RICHMOND SALES AT AN ALL TIME LOW!”

“Vancouver Westside Detached Sales June
1995 = 108
1996 = 133
1997 = 140
1998 = 126
1999 = 152
2000 = 125
2001 = 189
2002 = 150
2003 = 180
2004 = 154
2005 = 185
2006 = 181
2007 = 177
2008 = 108
2009 = 200
2010 = 147
2011 = 213
2012 = 99 **June 28″

“Vancouver East Detached Sales June
1995 = 145
1996 = 175
1997 = 185
1998 = 136
1999 = 233
2000 = 185
2001 = 269
2002 = 203
2003 = 282
2004 = 243
2005 = 303
2006 = 396
2007 = 244
2008 = 139
2009 = 238
2010 = 145
2011 = 180
2012 = 107 ***June 29
Sales at an all time LOW!”

14 responses to “[Ding!] Point Grey SFH Inventory Tops 100

  1. Probably nothing…

    • Nahh, nothing at all. Happy Canada Day, all.

      http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/07/vancouver-real-estates-candle/

      “Vancouver’s real estate’s candle continued its slow melt as price drops accumulate with average detached home prices beating a retreat for the fourth consecutive month from February’s high of $1,235,244 to a current average price of $1,061,067.

      Detached units reached a total Active listing count of 7,958 units and is now 27% higher than this time last year.

      Detached sales also felt the cold wind of fewer sales. Down 37% (924) compared to June 2011 (1,473), this figure is bound to extinguish the flame for a few Vancouver home sellers.”

      • There look to be errors in Larry’s numbers this month. Something did not add up for me at first glance. Tomorrow I will look again.

  2. I don’t understand when you use the numbers “98 and 107” when referring to the number of inventory of homes.
    Can you please explain. I’m very interested in the market and don’t understand these numbers.

  3. Finally!!! A bear run!!!

  4. well a house on belmont sold for 19.8 million dollars a couple months ago and a house on point grey road recently sold for asking in a week at 14.2 million, but i guess pgr is considered kits. Shows that the ultra high end market isnt really affected by market conditions. These people have so much money they just dont care…

  5. Cranston Snord

    I rent a basement suite in Point Grey. I can confirm that this is the highest number of listed homes I’ve seen since I moved to Vancouver four years ago. Additionally, there are a number of instances where the house was posted, the price dropped and the “for sale” sign removed without the house being sold. Some of these have been reposted a few months later. I’ve also never seen “for sale” signs stay up for so long. Something’s brewing.

    As a bit of an aside, I’d like to point out that my landlords are pretty awesome and charge me far less than the going rate for the sort of non-mouldy, recently renovated, in suite laundry, nearly 1000 square foot basement suit with real windows that I get. In return they get a very quite graduate student who’s almost always in the lab and watches the house while they travel the world. As much as there is rage directed to rich white baby boomers who own high end property on this forum and others, some of them give us poor PhD students and the like an honest break… It also helps that they bought the property during the late 1980s slump while doing something “real” for a living rather than speculating on property.

  6. Oh, come now, you know as well as I do that it was the rain that kept the buyers at home, that’s why sales were low. June 2005 on the east side was the best and June 2006 was the best weather in Richmond. It’s all about the weather. Less rain, more sales.

  7. prices in Pt. Grey start at 1.3M. Sorry to dash your hopes

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