“As a long time tax paying bear bitter about subsidizing the largess lifestyles of those that could not afford it, I will bloody well be a “I told you so type” in the coming years.”

“Get ready and get defensive and don’t gloat and be paranoid. This is going to get ugly starting today.”
Ham Solo at VCI 22 Jun 2012 4:04pm

“As a long time tax paying bear bitter about subsidizing the largess lifestyles of those that could not afford it, I will bloody well be a “I told you so type” in the coming years, albeit perhaps in a more strategic and tactful manner. My coming line will be, “well, if I make more than you, and I sat on the sidelines all these years, doesn’t that tell you something about your ability to afford these ridiculous prices and the sustainability of those prices.” Or maybe something softer like “you really should get in on renting – paying an underwater mortgage is really throwing your money away now with nothing to show for.”
As a six figure single earner, you can be damn straight I will be saying this and I will be bringing it up at every social event, as that would be keeping with the trend of talking about RE at pretty much every social event in Vancouver of the past umpteen years (and no RE is not raised at every event, but RE is a obsessed about topic in Vancouver).
Why should I have to take shit all those years as a stigmatized “poor renter” while prices climbed to the stratosphere, and every hairdresser and Home Depot associate making 50k a year was buying a condo, leasing a BMW, taking Mexican vacations, and buying multiple properties, and then not be able to be righteous when prices crumbled. These people were acknowledged as “investment geniuses” on the way up, so now they can be regarded openly as “investment morons” on the way down.
Payback is a bitch – but we all need to learn that to prevent another bubble in our lifetimes (however unlikely that really is).”

Payback at VCI 22 Jun 2012 4:28pm

30 responses to ““As a long time tax paying bear bitter about subsidizing the largess lifestyles of those that could not afford it, I will bloody well be a “I told you so type” in the coming years.”

  1. Yeah. I will admit I kind of feel the same way even though I have been a property owner and participated in Vancouver’s idiocy like so many others. But we bought many, many years ago when it was still sane and pricing, while high, was still affordable for normal working families. But all these crazy fools since then made our place worth a GD fortune which I certainly did nothing to deserve. For all the effort I put in the place should actually be worth less. Fence is broke, shed leaks, roof needs replacing and the lawn is like a lumpy mattress sinking in slugs, weeds and overgrowth. Never lifted a damn finger to do a repair in twelve years yet is is worth more than 10 times what we paid. And I really don’t care. Had two at one point. Stupid money. Goes with the territory I suppose but I would have preferred a stable sound market to all the easy equity fluff. (Even if that sounds stupid). Thing is, it all makes me sick because I know what we are witnessing is a massive market distortion and that can only be corrected with plenty of pain on the decline side. We rode it up and we will ride it down with the same effort as before…..I don’t mow or clip. Could care less as long as the taxes are paid and the tenants don’t screw up. The bubble-kids with the fancy cars and holidays on credit can all go broke as far as I am concerned.

  2. I agree with the sentiment. But in practice “…I will be bringing it up at every social event…” probably means this guy won’t be invited to too many parties.

  3. B.B. Rodriguez

    Heh, dare to dream that this would actually prevent a future irrational bubble. But yeah I agree with the sentiment, as someone who’s renting and had everybody and their dog tell me “it can’t happen here” on the concept of a crash.

    Ask Minsky. Everybody thinks “it’s different this time”.

  4. I might go on about the “exciting buying opportunities” that will become available if prices do tank, but, as strange as it seems, most of the people I spend time with on a regular basis know prices are too high, even if deep down they don’t want them to fall.

  5. Our crash is different.

  6. Love the sentiment, but this is social suicide. Won’t stop me from doing it, I’m just sayin’….

    • The most effective way to gloat publicly will be to not say a single word about having foreseen the whole thing for 10 years. Also, show sincere sympathy to all the arseholes who just ruined their families’ futures while rubbing it in at cocktail parties.

      That way you are simultaneously smarter, richer, *and* classier. That is 3 kinds of win.

  7. Speaking of ‘LifeStyle’ subsidies, as DarkArts practioners are wont to say, “This smacks of the genuine article.”

    True charity is anonymous and somebody’s KarmicAccount, NetNet, just spiked ‘green’.

    [CBC] – Couple donates $30M for Vancouver homeless

    “A Vancouver couple has anonymously donated $30 million to help reopen heritage home Taylor Manor as a housing facility for the homeless in the city.”

    http://tinyurl.com/7fgw3ky

    NoteToEd: Nem’s favourite ‘takeaway’ from that piece?… “The building on Boundary Road was renamed Taylor Manor in 1946 to honour eight-term Vancouver mayor Louis D. Taylor, who died in poverty at age 89.” Contrast that with the private sinecures and corrupt networks of patronage enjoyed by more recent office holders… Taylor may have been a ScalaWag but he was a people’s Scalawag. Not a developer’s.

  8. In other news ‘LifeStyles’, the Globe&Mail’s regional stringers have just noticed that RobsonStrasse is more MallOfAmerica than BergdorfGoodman…

    [G&M] – Future of Robson Street no longer a certainy

    …”Vancouver’s most famous street has been hit by a wave of vacancies. An unusually high number of retailers – including HMV, Starbucks, Tommy Hilfiger, Guess, Esprit and Payless Shoes – have closed shop, and several storefronts sit empty. The Levi’s store remains open, but has a large “for lease” sign at its window. Industry observers blame the exodus on some of the highest retail rents in the country, plus a tough economic climate. However, Robson does face other problems. Many of its high-profile chain stores can also be found in the nearby Pacific Centre mall, unique items are difficult to find, and the narrow sidewalks are often jammed.

    …The Robson Street Business Association did not respond to calls and e-mails requesting an interview. The Downtown Vancouver Business Improvement Association said while the number of vacancies does appear higher, it remains bullish about retail downtown.”…

    http://tinyurl.com/7po3yt5

    • Renters Revenge

      Kind of like the Champs-Élysées?
      “Once Paris’s most elegant Grand Boulevard, the Champs-Élysées has suffered the blight of megastores, fast food, movie chains, and the like, but once off the avenue, you’ll get a sense of what it once was.”
      http://www.fodors.com/world/europe/france/paris/feature_30012.html

    • It really once was a cool street with unique local places, but it just turned into such a zombie-chain stretch no better than a strip mall. I used to be a West End resident that loved Robson, but I probably started heading for Davie & not Robson by ’98, ’99.

      • Even Davie is changing quickly. I also noticed that Denman has a few more vacancies than they used to.

        interesting times ahead I think.

  9. hang on tight to that six figure job

  10. I stopped voluntarily talking RE in 2009 as I found I’d get too worked up arguing to people who are ignorant of basic financial concepts yet believe RE was a risk-free ticket to wealth. It takes a hell of a lot of prodding for me to comment now. As significant losses start accruing I have a feeling RE discussions will just stop all together.

    It really disturbs me how little about money people know, and I think that contributed to the bubble. There should be a mandatory basic finance course in high-school. You are going to be working for 45yrs to get money, they should teach you what to do with it when you earn it. They could dedicate a chapter to financial bubbles and include Vancouver RE as just one of hundreds of speculative frenzies that have occured throughout history.

    I am glad that these blogs are in place so that we have records of people who didn’t buy into the bulls**t. More importantly, the comments of the bulls on these blogs are priceless and should be used to point out the ridiculous arguments you’ll hear during a bubble that seem to make a lot of sense to a lot of people when prices are rising but will be laughed at for there stupidity once the bubble has long past popped.

    • I’ll note that there are plenty of US blogs that deconstructed the crazy bull arguments, showing that they were in a bubble. We have plenty of arguments and evidence to show how crazy our bubble is, but the masses are convinced that “it’s different here”.

  11. You can’t really blame most of these people, they have been brainwashed as to what they should wear,drive,drink,eat,live in…financial sense is not part of the systems mandate or education process, to occur dept is. They are just doing what they are told.

  12. Home Depot associates make $50K?!!

  13. well, at least payback will be able to get that massive chip off his shoulder…must be heavy.

  14. LIsten, in biblical times they worshipped the golden calf, today it’s real estate. On thing is certain, markets whether they be Real Estate, Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Commodities, Tulip Bulbs FLUCTUATE. We could debate the degree to which they fluctuate. All dogs have their day, the sellers have had theirs, now it’s the buyers turn.

    Here is the SAD part, our elected officials let it happen pretty much unwatched over the last 13 years; easy money, liar loans, ultra low “temporary” Lowest Interest Rates in history and when there is a bubble, the very same people responsible for creating it rush in with new regulations and strategies to control it.

    And in the Bigger picture, aren’t the Governments in the same boat, they are habitual borrowers as well. Just look at the “wealthiest nation in the world” with a public debt of $15 Trillion.

    My prediction is a correction of at least 40% off the peak reached in May 2011. I am not buying until then, let the vendors enjoy the downward slippery slope. An averyage single family detached house actually should be around $650K max, reverting to the mean prices in line with the long term trend of 5-6% per year…..

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