Inflation Adjusted Canadian Housing Prices; 1980 – 2011

– chart care of Kevin, from saskatoonhousingbubble. [Many thanks, Kevin] Recall that Shiller’s work on housing prices suggests that they return 0% real growth in the longterm. Which puts Vancouver at almost 3 times estimated value; very similar to estimates from price:rent and price:income ratios. – vreaa

18 responses to “Inflation Adjusted Canadian Housing Prices; 1980 – 2011

  1. It’s sooooooo obvious.

  2. Adrian Spitters

    Here is the graph

  3. On the west side ( detached) there are now 10 listings for every sale. Listings are understated as properties are withdrawn unsold from the market. Ratio 2 years ago was 3:1.

    • Yeah, it does appear to have started.

    • “On the west side ( detached) there are now 10 listings for every sale”.

      not sure how that helps you. Only 1 listing under 1Million and 240 under 2Million. Stats on the east side are far more relevant.
      i.e. MOI for east detached in April was 4.0! (prices start declining with MOI sustained for several months above 12)

      • “Stats on the east side are far more relevant.”
        ..
        Far more relevant to what, exactly?

      • It should be obvious, that stats in hot markets are more relevant than stats in cold markets. Follow the money. Nobody likes a loser.

      • vreaa,
        relevant to your own ability to purchase. I highly doubt you’ll be entering the detached market on the west side. Don’t expect much of a correction east compared to west.

        Vancouver detached peak to trough during 2008 crash:
        east 10%
        west 17%

        Those who do not learn from history…

      • formula1:
        1. I get constant chuckles out of your earnest presumptions. You still can’t conceive that there are people who can afford to buy, anywhere in the city, who have seen the mania for what it is and have chosen not to.
        2. How many times do we have to tell you? 2008 wasn’t a crash; what is coming up over the next 2-3 years, that’s a crash (cue Crocodile Dundee knife metaphor).
        3. “History” includes events more than 4 years old, and things that happened in places other than Vancouver. Like dozens and dozens, nay, hundreds, of speculative manias just like our ongoing RE bubble. Agreed; learn from history.

      • Prices start declining with MOI above 6, not 12.

      • 2008 not a crash? That’s not what you were saying when we were in it.

        good article actually.

        “Collapse,” “crash,” “fall”: that’s how some Canadian and international media are describing the Vancouver real estate market”.

        http://thetyee.ca/Views/2008/11/20/BoomCrash/

      • that’s true a2a389 – but the kind of price declines you want to see won’t happen at 6 MOI. That only produces 1/2 to 1%. I’m guessing you’ll want the conditions that an MOI of 10 produces.
        Check the chart yourself:
        http://housing-analysis.blogspot.ca/2012/01/greater-vancouver-market-snapshot.html

      • u just read latest f1/vreaa comedy variation, very cliche 🙂 … http://tinyurl.com/yvh7jx

  4. I wish I had the data for Shillers chart and then I would graph it looking at Canada and Canadian cities. One thing to remember for Western Canadian cities on my chart is that the index is starting from the early 80’s bubble. If I had started the index in 1984 or 85 at 100, the Western Canadian cities would be quite a bit higher than they are showing in 2011. For example if the index started at 1984 =100, Vancouver would be showing well over 300 and the Prairie cities would be well over 200.

  5. Pingback: Canadian Cities House Prices, Index Base 1980 = 100, Inflation Adjusted : The Retiring Boomer

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