“Shadow Inventory is the inventory where the owners have removed their listing awaiting the market to improve. Some interesting stats can be seen by this and we can see that in this slow market, the shadow inventory is large.
One area where I have the stats for is for Van-West detached. I took the listings at September 1, 2011 and compared to what has occurred since then. Some interesting stats have emerged.
There were 648 properties listed for sale on September 1. Of these, only 238 sold or only 36%.
Of the remaining 410 properties, 185 are now listed for sale and 225 are not. This means there are at least 225 of failed sales attempts which now sit in the Shadows.
Add this to the actual listings and there are another 25% of listings available for Van-West. I will try to find some more data but this is a pretty large amount of unlisted shadow inventory properties. As well, it will likely only get worse as we continue to see slow sales.
However – one big stat is that only 36% of properties for sale as of Sep 1 actually sold.”
“Of the 850 or so properties for sale in Van-West detached, there are 193 “flippers” or those which purchased their property in the past 2 years. I would say a 2-year hold is a flip. These are the ones most likely to push this market down when it gets soft.”
– zrh2yvr at vancouvercondo.info 6 Apr 2012 7:14am and 7:25am
How will these ‘sellers-in-the-wings’ respond when prices start to declare a definite downward path?