“Dull”, “Steady”, and “Flat” Canadian RE Markets? [Highly Unlikely]

“The realization that the Bank of Canada will not be raising interest rates in the coming months is working to remove any sense of urgency to front-load activity. At this point we do not see any catalyst that will change the current trend in any dramatic way.” – Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist, CIBC World markets, Reuters, 16 Aug 2011.
Tal also said the Canadian real estate market will be comparatively “dull” going forward [in interview on CBC Radio, 16 Aug 2011, 3:35pm.]

“We will probably have a couple of years of steady prices” – Victoria Real Estate Board president Dennis Fimrite, ‘Victoria housing tilts toward buyers’, Times Colonist, 3 Aug 2011

“CREA expects sales to fall less than one per cent in 2012 while prices will flatten next year.”
– ‘Home sales to rise this year, says CREA’, Kim Covert, Financial Post, 16 August 2011

A speculative mania never ends with a flat, boring market; not even in Canada.
We suspect “Dull”, “Steady”, and “Flat” are hopeful terms being used by vested interest insiders who are seeing the first signs of coming weakness. – vreaa

14 responses to ““Dull”, “Steady”, and “Flat” Canadian RE Markets? [Highly Unlikely]

  1. Just got a conversation with a friend of mine. Her husband is a realtor and she’s pregnant. They are looking to move to a bigger place. She said her husband has made the calculations and they have decided to sell their condo and… rent and wait until the market comes down before they’ll buy again!

    • I know a guy that did that in 2004/05 – I think they are divorced now.

      • We’ll note both anecdotes.
        The latter is an example of probable social fall-out of the speculative mania. (Probable because they may have divorced regardless).

  2. pricedoutfornow

    I have a feeling watching the real estate market over the next year or so will be as exciting as watching paint dry. It will take awhile before we see some “real” action-significant price drops, lots of inventory. But it won’t last.

  3. “A speculative mania never ends with a flat, boring market; not even in Canada.” [EsteemedEd]

    http://tinyurl.com/3cejbp9

    😉

  4. It is only a slight exaggeration to say that, tragically, the real estate bubble has caused its first fatality.
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2011/08/16/bc-victoria-newborn-death-anesthesiologists.html

    • Making 50% less than the adjacent province, surely this is a greatest place on earth tax worth paying combined with more expensive property prices! (/sarcasm)

    • Sigh. Correct. Or at least partially correct, UD. A former neighbour was/is a ‘gas/passer’… but abandoned the ‘Riviera’ in short order for the BBD (who here remembers what that acronym means) – bascially, an ‘offer you can’t refuse’ courtesy of the HolyOrder of the Sisters of Providence (those Nun’s are tough babes – and they have a great little medical shack on Burrard).

      Back to biz – their package was some serious coin – but, contextualized by YVR housing vs. INTL comps? Chump change .

      Best guess?…

      Transitory. Their next stop will be SEA… or LAX. There are no ‘borders’ for good sawbones/meat mechanics (or if you prefer, “San frontiers pour les bonne docteurs.” – a terrible irony when you allow that certain other professions enjoy similar mobility [e.g. “soldats de fortune”).

      We’ve got a lot of work to do. But it is doable. And it starts with the small stuff…

    • Actually the wage gap compared to the US isn’t as big as it was. Add in favourable tax treatment for sole proprietorships and I don’t think anyone is starving.

      Agree though. It would be a whole lot easier for all involved if RE were priced a bit lower.

  5. There is too much vested interest in RE here in Vancouver – it will never see a big dive in prices like Las Vegas; additionally the supply does not exeed demand by a great margin.

    I am not sure where the world’s economy is heading, the little I know makes me want to keep my money in BC RE rather than stocks.

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