
‘Tim Hebb, a Los Angeles systems engineer, sold his bungalow in August 2006 and has since rented a succession of apartments.’
Excerpts including two personal stories from ‘Housing Index Is Expected to Show a New Low in Prices’, NYT, 30 May 2011 –
The desire to own your own home, long a bedrock of the American Dream, is fast becoming a casualty of the worst housing downturn since the Great Depression.
Even as the economy began to fitfully recover in the last year, the percentage of homeowners dropped sharply, to 66.4 percent, from a peak of 69.2 percent in 2004. The ownership rate is now back to the level of 1998, and some housing experts say it could decline to the level of the 1980s or even earlier.
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Housing is locked in a downward spiral, industry analysts say, not only because so many people are blocked from the market — being unemployed, in foreclosure or trapped in homes that are worth less than the mortgage — but because even those who are solvent are opting out.
“The emotional scars left by the collapse are changing the American psyche,” said Pete Flint, chief executive of the housing Web site Trulia. “There was a time when owning a home was a symbol you had made it. Now it’s O.K. not to own.”
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Tim Hebb, a Los Angeles systems engineer, expertly called the real estate bubble. He sold his bungalow in August 2006, then leased it back for a year. Since then, the 61-year-old single father has rented a succession of apartments.
“I have flirted with buying again many times over the past few years,” said Mr. Hebb. “Let’s face it, people are not rational creatures.”
But he always resists, figuring housing is still overpriced and even when it stops declining it will stumble along the bottom for years and years. He says there is plenty of time to get back in if he should ever want to.
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Susan Lindsey, a San Diego software programmer, was once eagerly waiting for the housing market to crash. She said she would have no guilt about swooping in on some foreclosed owner who had bought a place he could not afford.
With prices now down by a third, however, she is content to stay in her $2,500-a-month rented house. She prefers to invest in gold, which she has been buying since 2003.
“I could afford a median-priced house, no problem,” said Ms. Lindsey, 48, as she headed off for a holiday weekend in Las Vegas. “But I would be paying more to live in a place I like less.”
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FunnyOldWorld… you could wait years for a single, decent ‘piece’ in the CorporateMedia dealing with these issues. And then three come along at once…
[UK Guardian] – Is home ownership really so desirable? High levels of debt and stress encourage acceptance of low wages and long hours. There’s a lot to be said for renting.
http://tinyurl.com/3jnsptf
[UK Independent] – Generation Rent: Britain to become a nation of renters – Millions of young adults ‘will never be able to afford their own homes’
http://tinyurl.com/4xmc6mc
Thanks Nem.
From the Independent article: “…the Government should introduce rules to restrict the size of a mortgage to 90 per cent of the price of a property, and three-and-a-half times the household’s annual income. They argue that this would prevent another housing bubble.” [Consider effects of latter measure on Vancouver house prices!!]
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Whenever one sees things like “Millions of young adults ‘will never be able to afford their own homes’”… one considers how price drops will sort this all out.
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Fans of Nem’s ‘BlastRadiusPostCards’ will be thrilled to know that there are are more on the way, once the editors have time to do them the justice they merit.
Can’t wait 😉
“Millions of young adults ‘will never be able to afford their own homes’”…
Funny thing about young adults, they become older adults. And the current older adults ,aka baby boomeers, become,what I like to call:
dead.
you should go to a local community center and do some meditation!
you are lack of self confidence!
[editor feels need to add, for Jim’s sake, that Polly is of course outrageously sarcastic. -ed.]
Pollyanna, your comment isn’t going to solve a home ownership affordability problem.
i don’t think bubbly gets the reference
comrade, i am with you, i am just taking the piss out of rusty
because i’m small and petty.
Oh man, I sure hope that your wide readership gets this series of posts pushed around. The Riverside 1996- to today – reverse in prices is going to happen in Vancouver, maybe even overshoot.
I asked my pal a Realtor how business was. “What business? – people looking – seeing the prices and passing”.
One of our City Councillors is floating foreign ownership rules….or some such. Too late.
The City of Vancouver is a disaster. So many indebted people – and yet everyone that cares, is talking about the Canucks.
My cats have more sense than most of these debt slaves.
it’s been mentioned to me that’s why we got this gold medal and we’re in the final.
…distraction…
or is mr. bettman’s nhl actually above board? lol.. no penalties in a game 7??
“But he always resists, figuring housing is still overpriced”
A wonderful anecdote that uoıʇɐlnɔǝds works both ways.
“With prices now down by a third, however, she is content to stay in her $2,500-a-month rented house. She prefers to invest in gold, which she has been buying since 2003.”
Uh-huh… O-kay…
lol ya i noticed that too. “You real estate speculators are nuts! I’m sticking to speculating in safe old gold!”
You gotta speculate in something these days 🙂 I mean, it’s not like we are going to have a sound financial system. Such a thing would put a crimp on the outrageous and undue rewards at the top.
The story the MSM is picking up on is that Americans are now renting again, and given the demographic shift from the ’80s this is big news. 30 years ago 20-somethings didn’t buy because they wanted to remain mobile. Nowadays, it’s arguable those nearing retirement looking for “stability” see no such thing in owning real estate. Rent isn’t cheap, and certainly not cheap when on a very limited fixed income in retirement.
It brings up an interesting sidebar too: the home ownership rate should be increasing as baby boomers near retirement, but with one giant caveat — that they need a paid-off house in retirement or may need to sell it and downsize. If properties do start faltering, those a decade away from hanging up their skates may start doing the maths a bit more carefully.
Great anecdotes. Also : understand that these folks weren’t suprime. They were not the pizza-delivery-guy-turned-villa-owner-overnight a lot of Canadians think of when they argue about US-Canada market differences. The majority of home buyers in the US had great jobs and great credit scores. I think a lot of Canadians take for granted that the uncle sam experiment of 2000-2006 doesn’t apply to them. I would advise them to think again.
Australia is crashing – biggest GDP contraction in twenty years.
Housing inventories are soaring and prices are falling. Where are the rich Chinese when you need them?
Ask anyone in Sydney and they will tell you that it’s different there… NOT!
Thank god Vancouver has people like rusty, who will support our housing market forever.
once they draw the conclusion that restricting foreign RE investment = falling GDP, no one will want to try that here…
if I can rent it I’ll buy it.
“Great anecdotes. Also : understand that these folks weren’t suprime.”
yeah – there was more of a problem with ARMs, large mortgage debt and over-leveraging in the rest of household spending. And too many people used their house equity as an ATM, so they couldn’t sell when the housing prices when down.
Before the housing boom it was standard in the US to get a 30 year fixed loan. That means that the interest rate is fixed for 30 years — or the length of the entire mortgage. A 30 year open mortgage is also standard.(no pre-payment penalties.) Banks don’t seem to do this much in Canada.
JustIn!
&Well. There it is. Vancouver’s HousingBoom is now “officially” over.
We’ve been ZeroHedged.
[ZeroHedge/Tyler] – The Vancouver Real Estate Market Rollercoaster
“When the housing bubble of the early eighties popped in this city some house prices dropped by 50% over the next couple of years and didn’t reach their inflation adjusted real price again for 25 years. What would a real estate market bust look like these days?”
http://tinyurl.com/43uu5y5
PS – it isn’t ‘un-patriotic’ to post between periods, is it?
Our crazy market is once again exposed to a wider audience! (though they’re presumably US economic bears, not the Vancouver housing bulls).
on WSJ front page of Money and Investing section –
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304563104576357373661248928.html