Private Moment: Vancouver RE; World Events – “The Contrast Is Astonishing”

We’re sure ‘painted turtle’ [vancouvercondo.info 15 Mar 2011 9:46am] is not alone in having this kind of experience in recent days“I am sitting in a coffee shop right now. The TV shows the nuclear troubles in Japan, stocks going down, and turmoil in the Middle East. Right below the TV set, 4 men talking real estate: the lower mainland will continue to see price increase, forever, an express train will be built to Squamish and Mission, I am going to buy a rental property there, etc… The contrast is astonishing.”

11 responses to “Private Moment: Vancouver RE; World Events – “The Contrast Is Astonishing”

  1. MLS listingV874585 listed at $1.98mil, sold in 48hrs for $2.4mil.
    I want to be sick!!!!!!

  2. I’m surprised the Vancouver Sun hasn’t run the…

    “Nuclear Disaster in Japan – Will it Help Vancouver Real Estate?”

  3. Actually, they kinda did.
    In today’s business section: ‘B.C. lumber firms’ stocks jump on scenes of earthquake devastation’… “anticipating a mammoth rebuilding program”.
    Illustrated, in the print edition, by a very large picture of a tsunami devastated scene covered in timber.

  4. Does anyone ask how long a typical Japanese bungalow exists before it’s rebuilt anyways? It’s not Europe where houses are built to last through eras. Sure there will be a slight resurgence of construction activity but it should be compared to the baseline spend rate in Japan ex natural disasters.

    Rising timber prices for BC producers… yes… but it’s more likely because the US is emerging from a recession and will be starting to fire up its residential construction industry again.

    Here’s a report on BC Stats on BC’s trade with Japan:

    Click to access exp1007.pdf

    Lumber has been less and less of an export to Japan on trade mix, wood making only 22% of exports by value in 2009 compared to 45% in 2004. Is that because Japan’s wood-based construction economy has slowed over the course of 5 years or because they have found other sources? Good news for the lumber industry; there hasn’t been much of it for the past while so I suppose the disaster in Japan will bolster sunken morale in the industry.

    • The number of >200 year old buildings in Japan is very small. Traditionally buildings in Japan were constructed out of wood, which makes them resilient to earthquakes, but fires are a big risk. In major cities, (Tokyo, Osaka, etc.) there are not many old buildings — a few historic buildings here and there, but most of the old structures were destroyed in various fires (recent ones include the WWII firebombing, 1923 Tokyo earthquake & fire, etc.)

      As another example: downtown Kobe is very new and clean, thanks to the 1995 earthquake.

      In the countryside, you can find 100 year old bungalows here and there, but a fair proportion of new houses as well.

      Another important reason that most buildings are new that it the resale market for condos and houses is small — typically people would only look for new properties. Old properties simply depreciate (particularly in the last 20 years).

      Buildings that last >200 years are usually built of stone or brick. There are almost no such buildings in Japan. The >200 year old buildings are usually famous landmarks or temples, and these require frequent maintenance. There are some >1000 year old temples.

  5. Sorry if someone already posted this, but:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/house-price-gains-likely-to-recede/article1942385/

    The first glimmer of truth from the CREA? Ever? Didn’t they just finish telling us prices would RISE throughout 2011?

  6. restuarant unemployee

    i’m buying two rental properties!

    one in squamish
    one in mission

    and then my methlab-running eastern suburb tennants will have a direct line

    location, location, location

  7. Pingback: CREA’s Ongoing Backcasts – Predicting What Will Happen Last Month | Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive

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