Economy; Employment: BC Film and TV Production Industry Business Down 23% YOY

From G&M 10 Mar 2011“British Columbia’s Film Commission says 2010 was a strong year for the province’s film and television production industry, despite figures that show an overall drop in spending from 2009. A total of 246 productions were shot in B.C. last year – a slight increase from 2009 – but overall spending fell from $1.3-billion in 2009 to just over $1-billion in 2010.”

Interesting that the G&M headline was “Strong year for B.C. film and tv industry, despite slight drop in spending” -ed.

5 responses to “Economy; Employment: BC Film and TV Production Industry Business Down 23% YOY

  1. In any other industry, a 23% YOY decline in revenue would be described as a problem.

    • matt-> Agree completely. Spinmeisters.
      Now, consider this data point regarding our efficient market discussion:
      A percentage of analysts will see this news superficially, as ‘fine’; others (like you and I) as a potential “problem”.
      This allows some analysts (you included here) to have a slight edge, regarding this single data point, regarding possible future decisions about investment/speculation. Multiply this by dozens, hundreds of data points. In that way, some analysts do have ways of acquiring advantage. They are not nihilists about their investing/speculating chances.

      [PS I am aware that news reports are poor examples of such data points.. they are ‘priced in’ by the time they hit the wires.. but, you get the idea.]

      • vreaa, oh of course, it would be stupid to dismiss all market analysis as bullshit. The problem is trying to determine what information is false or misleading and what information provides meaningful insight.

        I think I owe you a better explanation of what I think. Here’s my analysis of the RE market in Vancouver:

        1) Canada/B.C./the world is three years removed from a major financial/economic slowdown.
        2) In that time frame, the market barely declined and has since climbed even higher, in the face of lukewarm economic recovery (see gdp growth and unemployment rates for B.C.)
        3) The ratio of median housing price vs median household income sits at a factor of 11x, which surpases the ratio in Melbourne, Australia by a factor of at least 2, which is supposed to be the most unaffordable re market in the world. I actual think Melbourne’s housing market makes far more sense in terms of affordability given its prominence in the Asian economy. Melbourne is also a banking center and has a productive economy. Aside from commodities, lousy movies/tv shows, iphone games and weed, what does Vancouver produce?

        Some people think that low interest rates and 35 year amortization rates are a large factor in driving the RE market and I don’t dismiss this assertion out of hand. My opinion is that this is only part of equation. Something else is at play here which I don’t understand and I haven’t seen any analysis that plausibly explains my observation. If I had to hazard a guess, I would say we wouldn’t see any significant change in RE prices in Vancouver unless Asian economies slow down. It’s not just HAM I’m thinking about but the dependence of Vancouver and B.C. on Asian trade, but I can’t explain this assertion intelligently. It’s just a guess.

        I think there’s too much missing information here to say unequivocally what is wrong with the housing market here, but please don’t take this statement to say that I think that this market is “different” or we’re entering an era of “new economics” or some other marketing clap trap.

      • “I think there’s too much missing information here to say unequivocally what is wrong with the housing market here”

        Well there is “unequivocally” and there is “based on the overwhelming balance of objective evidence”. In my view there is enough evidence that prices are too high and a significant price correction is likely in the coming years. In most areas of BC the correction has already started so, depending on where one lives, I might as well be talking in the past tense.

  2. matt -> thanks, we understand; as said on the other thread, I think we’re far more on the same page than not.

    We’d suggest that two major pieces of “missing” information that explain the Vancouver bubble aren’t really “missing” at all, namely:

    1). Bail-Out By Proxy.
    In fall 2008 – early 2009, the Vancouver RE market experienced an unmerited massive loosening of lending standards that it didn’t inherently need. This was very, very inappropriate to where the market was in its cycle at the time. Prices had barely pulled back at all after running up 100-200%. Because of extraneous factors, lending was loosened to historic emergency extremes.
    Pretty much like having your neighbour throw jet-fuel onto your roaring BBQ, on the basis that theirs was going out.
    The RE sector of our economy roared, coming to represent an even larger part of local economic activity than it had prior to that, and, the superficial knock on effects made our economy look somewhat better than it would have without the RE effects. It all goes back to the loose lending/debt spending, though.

    2). Ubiquitous Speculation.
    You will probably have seen us make this argument elsewhere: Almost every Vancouver buyer in the last 5 or 6 or 7 years is a speculator in that they buy anticipating ongoing unrealistic price appreciation. This speculative mindset (“buy now or be forever priced out” – we still hear it chanted) has been a formidable force.

    In our opinion, those two factors are enough to explain the speculative mania what we have seen. Does it have to be more complicated than that?
    What aspect of the market action has not been explained by those forces?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s