“I just kept thinking: Something is not right here, too much risk, don’t people worry? They seem to think NOTHING is possible, until it’s literally happening.”

This from “just call me anonymous please” via e-mail to VREAA 18 Jan 2011 –
“I was at Metrotown this evening, SALE signs everywhere (retail – a hint at the big picture ?). What is it? Boxing month?!
As a young (23 y/o) Vancouverite, I felt so alone before finding the [bearish RE websites]. I just kept thinking “Something is not right here, too much risk, don’t people worry?”. Everyone I know is sucking on the kool aid, it’s extremely comforting to know I’m not alone in my views. People truly are stupid, it seems they are just not too good at taking guesses at estimating possible outcome scenarios. People are shortsighted, they think NOTHING is possible, until it’s literally happening.”

Yes, we are aware that one can make the argument that the bearish Vancouver RE websites are like a cult, with posters and readers all reinforcing each other’s delusional views of coming RE collapse. But, we consider that argument carefully, weigh it, and discard it. There is far more evidence that the delusions are held by the far larger bullish-owner-speculator cult, who are apparently having to deny far more to maintain their false beliefs. Sample belief: “There is no relationship between income and the price of housing.”  -vreaa

16 responses to ““I just kept thinking: Something is not right here, too much risk, don’t people worry? They seem to think NOTHING is possible, until it’s literally happening.”

  1. A savings rate at or below zero is a good indicator of that.

  2. Yes, I am pretty sure that those who trust math and all of economic history rank somewhere below those that believe “it’s different here” on the delusion index.

    I just heard from an acquaintance about several friends – couples with young kids – who are house poor and struggling to make mortgage payments.
    Several. The Olympic hangover is about to kick in, people. I hope all those gold medals were worth it.

  3. Let me rephrase that:

    Yes, we are aware that one can make the argument that the scientific journals are like a cult, with contributors and readers all reinforcing each other’s delusional views of the newest scientific discoveries. But, we consider the facts carefully, weigh it, and discard it.

    😉

    • Actually, there is some truth in the argument that the way that scientific journals function has cult-like qualities. But, in science, as in the markets, the ‘truth’ almost always eventually prevails. It can take a while, though…

  4. http://www.myabbotsford.com/Foreclosure_Listings/page_2306117.html#http%3A//idx.myrealpage.com/wps/recip/10971/111551.search/SearchResults.form%3F_fcc%3D0.8831559885562826%2Cmrph-3965,mrph-3965

    I was snooping through some realtors sites today and found 25 foreclosures in Abbotsford on this site.
    I’m not sure if this is more than normal for this time of the year but it’s interesting, They are in all price ranges, too.
    Our last UE percentage was up to 9.9 so maybe this is a sign of strain in the RE market out here.

  5. No shame in renting in your early 20’s. Sit back for a couple of years and watch the home prices come to you.

  6. Humans evolution did not require us to be able to project forward as we must when considering future economic or social conditions. We evolved to respond to immediate and physical threats.

    We also learn from mistakes on an individual basis if we identify them as such and deeply consider the causes and consequences. However we are only moderately good at learning from the mistakes of others.

    Most of us operate under the “recency effect” which is that recent events in our life are most likely to continue. Meanwhile we are more likely to seek out and believe information that confirms what we already believe than to believe information that is contradictory.

    Taken as a whole it makes us far less a rational species than we believe we are.

  7. “Taken as a whole it makes us far less a rational species than we believe we are.”

    We are a rationalizing species, not a rational one.

  8. I wonder what a 23 yr old (that probably still lives with mommy and daddy) could possibly know about risk vs reward as it pertains to real estate, retail business and life in general?

    FYI, those so called “SALE” signs (ie. 30-40% off, buy one get one half off etc) plastered all around town have been permanent fixtures for years now. Even with these faux markdowns in place, prices here are still way higher than in the US. Maybe Mr. “call me anonymous” should be keeping tabs on the number of FOR LEASE signs popping up on streets like Robson instead?

  9. I chose the name anonymous because I couldn’t think of anuything cool at the time, and I really don’t care.

    I’m certainly am not trying to act as though I have a full and thorough understanding of the world/ economy/ real estate, but when so many people I know buy homes they can barely afford, and have next to nothing saved up for emergencies like job losses its kind of a red flag, wouldn’t you say ? I just don’t know how people are comfortable living on the edge like that. My comment on the mall was a side note, if shops are cutting prices, doesn’t that mean people are not shopping ? Why are they not shopping ? Perhaps, they have less money ? No ? I don’t shop robson so often, but when you go out farther to “the burbs” yes, I’ve seen more shops/services closing lately.

    When I sent my original email I made a slew of spelling errors (my blackberry was dying and I wanted to send the message off) and so when vreaa asked if they could part of my note, I asked them to cleabn it up a bit first, and I’m happy with what they did. A bit of the wording was also changed (again, original message a little confusing). And so while my message came out pretty much the same, it came off a little differently, maybe making me sound like I see myself as some sort of expert, which I do not. Maybe I should not have mentioned my name, as soon as your young, your opinion isn’t worth as much. Maybe all us young folk should just give up even attempting to think for ourselves, and just follow along as society tells as, that would be much better – ?

    • Thanks for sending the original e-mail and for the comment, anonymous. I doubt whether anybody would see your anecdote as being arrogant, it isn’t.
      Your observations are valid, regardless of your age.

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