“If somehow this market is special, and ignores fundamentals, and keeps going up, in two years my family and I are outta here!”

YLTNboomerang at vancouvercondo.info January 11th, 2011 at 9:44 am
“If somehow this market is special, and ignores fundamentals, and keeps going up, in two years my family and I are outta here! I’ve been courted a few times to move to Calgary for significantly higher wages but held off due to extended family being here in Vancouver. Looking into it further, I can get flight passes from AC for $320 per round trip which means: $320 x 3 x 26 = $24,960 gets the three of us back to Vancouver every other weekend and let me say, the raise for moving to Cowtown is much more than $25K!”
and January 11th, 2011 at 1:43 pm
“My moving to Calgary wouldn’t be acceptance that the market will continue up, it would be a “sick of waiting, move on with life” move. The Vancouver market will crash, hopefully soon as it has gone on too long however if there is some bizarre move that delays the eventual crash beyond the next 2 years I’ll go somewhere else to wait. Furthermore, if there is such a massive crash that the CHMC goes down with it and becomes a burden on the taxpayer…well…I’ll just give up on this country as a whole and move overseas or down south – somewhere that has already been through their re-pricing and is back to recovery.”

12 responses to ““If somehow this market is special, and ignores fundamentals, and keeps going up, in two years my family and I are outta here!”

  1. I will probably be out of Vancouver by the end of 2011, it is simply not worth it to live here.

  2. I have a business here in Vancouver, so I can’t move right now, but I am planning to move withing the next 2 – 3 years. The RE prices here are insane. There are nicer places at much better prices.

  3. The high cost of high prices. The average working family can’t afford to live here so they have to leave. It is tragic.

    Meanwhile if the RE cartel had their way they would move in million Chinese investors who bought homes, left the family here and had dad stay at work in China.

    Are we insane?

    • There are 500 thousand millionaires in China. Most of them invest in China and out of those who invest abroad, only a tiny fraction ever comes to Vancouver.
      Most people in China make extremely little money by western standards. Chinese families coming here and leaving dad work in China to finance their life in Canada is a fantasy – a pretty stupid one.
      Usually it’s the other way around – people from China come here to make money and to send it to their families in China until they can come too. That is NOT what rich people would do. Most Chinese “investors” simply use mortgages and are over-leveraged like all other “investors”.

  4. we are not insane- we are a city run by developers who create artificial scarcity to keep prices high. There is no land shortage- look at the vast expanses of land that sit empty right near the city centre. Every wonder why they are not developed? because putting extra living units on the market would spoil the party. Just as the oil industry could easily develop alternative sources of energy, but since they estimate there are a remaining $1 trillion on profits to be had from oil, they will wait until after they get those profits.

    I fully expect the market to soften and then deflate here in Vancouver. But when this does happen, I also expect the REIC to lobby the government to propose a scheme like Junius describes. When the locals can no longer pay, they will try to bring in foreigners on some program under the guise of helping to “save jobs and the RE industry”. And most of the up-to-their-eyeballs-in-debt-homeowner-locals will support it because they only thing that affords them their lifestyle is the rising value of their home. I expect it will be put in simple terms- ” If we don’t bring in foreign investors to raise the price of RE, your home value will fall- do you want that?” People will say no, we don’t want them to fall, so let’s bring in the investors, meanwhile selling out an entire generation to a life of debt slavery.

    So the lower mainland will face a stark choice about what kind of place it wants to become. Given the apathy I see on other issues I am not optimistic about our ability to overcome their lobbying efforts. Your average person who watches CBC, CTV, Globe and reads the Sun and Province is firmly under the spell of the MSM and their shilling for the REIC.

    Before any crash happens, there needs to be a reckoning about why the bubble has happened, who encouraged it and who profited from it. And those who are to blame will do everything they can to protect their profits and reputation.

    If we want a crash, we may well have to fight for it.

  5. I guess you should move out of here now.
    the more people move out of here. the demand will descrease thus the price.

    wish you all the best if you move.

  6. Wow. The desire to own is obviously substantial with a lot of people. There should be no surprise there’s a bubble with that prevailing mentality.

  7. I went to a couple open houses in east Vancouver today and we were the only white people there, the rest were Asian, looked mostly Chinese. Both open houses were very busy. The Asian realtors did not even acknowledge or greet us as we entered or walked through the homes. I am beginning to believe that there may be something to this “HAM” theory.

  8. the more people post in the bear blogs, the higher prices will become. lol

  9. I agree with Chris. I am originally from Vancouver , but now live in Calgary. When I visited in the fall, I went to some open houses on the west side, the realtor ignored me. There was another Chinese realtor who made a rude comment when i asked about the basement. I complained to the company but never heard back. I was generally not too impressed with the finishings on some of the new houses built in Dunbar, Point Grey. Very, very expensive for what you get – which is mostly location, location, location. I am truly starting to think it would be better for my family to stay in Calgary, make more money, have a nicer house for less money than Vancouver, have great neighbors, schools etc, and then plan on moving out for semi-retirement or something like that. Calgary has some great neighborhoods, with nice homes for way cheaper than Vancouver…..but..it is Calgary, For those considering though…lots of sunshine, shopping is getting really good, and restaurants (more and more asian), traffic is way better. No HST!!!!!

  10. Even if the crash started tomorrow it’ll be a long, long time before it plays itself out. I’d guess you’re looking at 10 years from peak to trough. Those are 10 years of escalating unemployment, collapse in lots of non RE related industries (how many people eat out when they aren’t working?) and lots of general doom and gloom.

    The truth is the RE industry has distorted absolutely every other part of th employment picture in Vancouver. It’s not just the unaffordable price that make Vancouver unattractive, it’s the fact that most people have agreat deal of trouble finding middle class work because there just aren’t that many middle class jobs available.

    Im glad I left. There are a lot more IT/project management jobs here in Halifax relative to the population. Because there was no real estate boom there are no RE zillionaires, and there’s no owner / renter apartheid. People don’t judge you based on the shelter you put over your head. In fact, some of my owner friends are jealous of me, because of the low cost of my fabulous apartment. People here actually get that renting has advantages: No worries about property tax hikes or unexpected repairs for instance.

    Vancouver is pretty and it’s a bit warmer (but much darker and rainier) in the winter. I’ve learned to enjoy being here. I don’t miss Vancouver at all.

  11. I left Vancouver in 2004. I thought it was crazy then. It just got crazier. I loved Vancouver. I lived there for 15 years. But things changed. The character got stripped away as tends to happen when everything is driven by condos and Starbucks. The people got nasty and frankly, the world knows the average vancouverite is not rich. No one is fooled. Yet everyone seems to be playing the ego trip game. None of them can afford it. Everyone else in the world knows this.

    Vancouver does have alot of foreign capital. However I think that will change as their home countires are living the dream far more than Canada is right now. Hong Kong came to Vancouver to find that they pretty much still live in Hong Kong but without thier own culture.

    For me, the change meant starbucks, gap and conversation about condo pre sales. Boring. Beautiful location but highly taxed citizens in the mental burden way. I now live in a waterfront home elsewhere with $ to burn. Its not as pretty but I have no worries about paying my bills and living my interests. All for less than a tiny bachelor in a west end walk up. Easy choice.

    Like others mentioned, a crash will not be immediate. Face the fact that you are priced out of Vancouver. Thats life. Becoming a slave to a city will never do anyone justice. The fall will come. And when it does about 90% Vancouvers population will all be crying at once. ABout 2 years later is when I’d look at coming back. When they are foreclosed on. Just like Las Vegas and most of California, Phoenix, Miami etc right now. All great locations that couldnt go wrong 5 years ago. Just like Vancouver.

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