Spot The Speculators #22 – “The realtor himself owns four, rented out, and plans to sell and retire with the equity a few years from now.”

anonymous at VREAA 22 Dec 2010 at 9.35pm“I was told by a realtor dealing primarily with the Chinese segment [of the market] that many of the purchases are investment properties bought by people already here, using their first home’s equity as leverage to get a downpayment AND mortgage. As for overseas purchasers, they put down 40% cash and the rest is a mortgage from a Canadian bank. In fact, he told me many take out mortgages here with the favourable rates, and invest them in China and pocket the difference in interest!
The realtor himself owns four, rented out, and plans to sell and retire with the equity a few years from now.”

[Cavalier speculation by locals is rife and has been the major engine for this bubble. A large number of owners have “plans to sell and retire with the equity a few years from now”. Only a very small percentage will realize their dreams. -vreaa]

32 responses to “Spot The Speculators #22 – “The realtor himself owns four, rented out, and plans to sell and retire with the equity a few years from now.”

  1. Using Vancouver property to finance currency arbitrage? Crikey.

    • Yeah, interesting, eh?

      Yuan tied to dollar, pretty much. So, in the coming deflationary wave, these guys will lose (1) nominal value of Vancouver RE and (2) loonie dropping vs yuan. Could get ugly.

      [afterthought, update: #2 above would actually benefit this currency play, as the borrowed loonies (debt) would depreciate against the yuan assets. So would actually ameliorate the ‘ugly’ outcome. If, however, those yuan are invested in Chinese stocks, commodities, Chinese RE, it could get ugly anyway.]

      • You work under the presumption that China would let the Yuan rise against the CAN$.

        I am not so sure they will, firstly the BoC will most likely try to prevent this, but even if not, there will be a point where a strong Yuan against other currencies is undesirable.

        Unless you expect the USD also taking flight vis-a-vis the Loony.

        Personally I think we will see a lot of up and down in the currency markets over the next decade as each central bank will try to “cheapen” their currency in order to be able to stay competitive. A classic “race to the bottom” event.

      • Michael -> thanks for the comments…
        I’m anticipating a deflationary wave where the loonie, commodities, general market stocks, emerging markets, and even the precious metals, all fall against the USD. Not long term, but in the intermediate term.
        As the yuan is almost completely fixed to the USD, it’d also strengthen against the loonie in such a situation.

      • I’m anticipating a deflationary wave where the loonie, commodities, general market stocks, emerging markets, and even the precious metals, all fall against the USD. Not long term, but in the intermediate term.

        I am sure we will see “hiccups” along those lines. The problem I see is that it’s not int he US’ best self-interest to let that happen. The question is how much wiggle room they have left (not much I presume).

        Carney could crash the CAN$ probably rather easily: Just raise the BoC rate and see what happens, as home defaults will weigh heavy on the loony, but I am not sure he’s will to risk that either, otherwise he could have done that a while ago.

        As the yuan is almost completely fixed to the USD, it’d also strengthen against the loonie in such a situation.

        That also will remain to be seen how long they keep doing this. Right now the main reason is that the US is still the biggest single export market for China. Once China decides that they do not like it anymore they can easily decouple it from the USD and latch it on to something else (e.g. the Loony if we’d become their biggest raw materials source or the AUS$ or even the Euro if they think that this will be their biggest export market).

        I am really curious to see what China does with regards to the Euro, the English Press is in a feedy frenzy over it’s immediate demise which sort of makes me curious what will really happen, I have the hunch it will not go down the way the American and British media would like to see it develop.

  2. Yes, it is interesting… like many people I have been trying to save with my wife for the past four years, with the end goal of buying a house – (we actually wanted a small condo or townhome but have her father living with us, and with two kids, there are very few that have enough bedrooms. One thing I don’t understand is why virtually no one builds four bedroom apartments or townhomes – they are surely more economical than SFHs?) We were despairing of ever being able to afford anything large enough. I was looking as far out as Mission (we work in Vancouver, rent in Burnaby). One day I just got sick of every minute of every day thinking about how I could spend less and save up fast enough to get in to the market, and did a little search on Google for “average Vancouver house price” to see what information I could uncover to get a glimpse at future house prices. I came across Vancouver Condo info’s rollercoaster, saw the charts, and in rapid succession hit VREAA and Garth Turner’s blog. Read every Froogle Scott episode (loved the writing and the detail) – and months of archived blogs and anecdotes. The wife says I am obsessed.
    I think it’s fair to say my world shifted on its axis. Since then, I have been asking subtle questions of anyone I encounter (it’s surprisingly easy in Vancouver, in 2010, to ask highly personal questions like how much did you spend on your house! amazing…) and my findings astonished me. The one question that had been puzzling me was the HAM or Hot Asian Money hypothesis, that had all my family members believing prices will NEVER come down in Van. So I got my realtor landlord into a discussion and worked my way to asking how these investors get the money. He volunteered all of the above. I should mention that together with his brother, he also manages 19 properties for investor clients, taking care of renting them out, maintenance etc. (his brother does the legwork, gets a small rent based commission, and together they share the commission from the eventual sale of these investor properties.) All these investor clients are living in Van, and own one or more investment properties in addition to primary residence. Most of them bought in around ten years ago, however, so they truly are long term investors.

    I will keep asking around for more information. As far as I see it, there are two possible outcomes to this real estate conundrum. 1) Chinese and other foreign investors keep coming with enough cash and overseas income to buy up all Westside and work their way east with tear-down and rebuilds, with no need of local jobs. Local wage earners unlucky enough to be left behind in the property market rent or leave. That would include us. A skeleton crew of baristas, mechanics, retail staff, Ferrari and Lamborghini salespeople and check out clerks live in rent assisted social housing islands in a sea of uber wealthy, world’s-elite-with-a-penchant-for-temperate rainforest-climate-owned mansions. What happens to the local economy next I am not smart enough to figure out.
    OR:
    2) many of the overseas investors are overleveraged in a speculatory bubble, both in their home markets (esp. China) and here. Rising interest rates and falling prices sap their will to buy higher. Depending on events in China, prices either decline calamitously or grind down slowly as per Garth Turner until they rest somewhere slightly above where fundamentals would put them, so about 4.2 price to income ratio (Vancouver seems to always have been above fundamentals. (grow op income perhaps?)
    People continue to buy in preference to renting because of the homeowner premium. (as a six year renter since I arrived in this god-forsaken city I am prepared to pay slightly over to not have to deal with the landlords here – words cannot describe how cheap they are and how much it annoys me to have to spend money and time on making repairs because they never show up and I worry that they will raise rent every time I make them fulfill their legal obligations and actually spend the money on repairing dripping taps, leaks, broken stairs, etc.)

    So that’s my take. I will keep collecting information to help the blogosphere decide where this will end.

    As a new-ish Vancouverite who has lived in Italy, Spain, UK, Finland, Japan, even Albania albeit briefly, and traveled in 28 more countries, I want to tell something to all of you: read my lips very carefully:
    THIS – IS – NOT – THE – BEST – PLACE – ON – EARTH.
    It’s just like every other place, ok in some respects, sucky in others, great in a few. Get your heads out of your asses. It’s almost embarrassing telling people from other parts of Canada where I live, as I inevitably get tarred with the same brush of arrogance.

    one last anecdote. my brother in law and his fiance rent a basement from her parents. The parents moved up, sold their long term paid off vancouver home for 500,000, bought for 850,000 and mortgaged the difference. So now my brother in law and fiance want the parents to get a HELOC that they can use as a downpayment to buy a condo, rent it out for a couple of years, so they don’t miss out on all these equity gains across the city. Luckily, the parents lost their good jobs and decided it was too risky to take the HELOC.

    I have since made a bet for $100 with my BIL that average metro vancouver house price declines 35% from dec 2010 values within 3 years. he wants to double the bet. Should I?

    • One thing I don’t understand is why virtually no one builds four bedroom apartments or townhomes – they are surely more economical than SFHs?)

      Because the cost for them would be roughly the same as for a SFH, and most people would never consider buying a large Condo / Apartment if they could get the same size in a house.

      After all, the North American dream is to “own some land and be master of your own domain”.

      Additionally, Condos have become investment vehicles. The idea is that many people will just rent the condo out / buy the condo while they are single / to singles and then flip it and “trade up”.

      Take a look at the size of apartments build in the 1980s or earlier compared to what is being build now. The square footage has gone down because it’s all about ROI, not about living.

  3. I have since made a bet for $100 with my BIL that average metro vancouver house price declines 35% from dec 2010 values within 3 years. he wants to double the bet. Should I?

    No brainer… hell go 5X bet and throw in a fancy dinner too!!!!

    • hey if you want a piece of the action, i can cut you in on the bet! he may be scared now though as i have been sending him tidbits from the blogosphere – see my next post.

  4. hehe. I am a very risk-averse individual though.

  5. I found this post rather telling, taken from Garth Turner’s comments section by an American. I hope no one minds if I repost here to spread the word, as I believe it to be particularly prescient. I sent it in an email to my BIL, along with some charts:
    (my words first):
    hehe. BOC chief mark carney announces record household debt; and interest rate increases coming…

    [the posted comment]:

    ” I have to be honest here and say I find it a tough pill to swallow to think that Canadians REALLY don’t believe it is going to happen in Canada. What is also shocking is that after witnessing all that has happened in the U.S. with respect to Real Estate, why on Earth would Canadians feel impervious at all to a forthcoming crash? Here’s the recipe for the RE crash in the U.S.

    1. Cheap credit to both buyers and developers
    2. Aggressive marketing efforts and buying frensy
    3. Continued pumping of the market buy RE Agents, even if they were speaking falsities (entitlement of buyers grew significantly in this step)
    4. Under rumblings of a potential crash from “nobodies” (this was coming from people much like Garth)
    5. Denial of the under rumblings and continued yet slowed purchasing
    6. A final “greater fool” buys a home (trust me, there WILL BE ONE FINAL GREATER FOOL – SOMEONE HAS TO BE THE LAST NOT TO GET THE MESSAGE)
    7. Realization by developers and marketers the market has changed, so they begin “cherry picking” facts to pump the market and effectively LIE to the public
    8. Buyers are either tapped out of credit and leveraged to the hilt, or they now are believing the market could crash, yet they rarely if ever “talk” about it (hope still abounds here)
    9. Senior officials not directly associated with RE firms speak to the masses, warning of a potential collapse if debt is not reduced and controlled (hope rapidly diminishes here)
    10. A few months more of slow to level to declining sales, and a realization by buyers the market has indeed turned. More talk ensues among buyers with “what if” scenarios and realization of potential doom. (this is the “stand off”)
    11. CRASH, melt, dead cat bounce, melt some more, dead cat bounce
    12. WHAT NEXT?!?!?! WHO KNOWS!

    From what I’m seeing, it LOOKS like Canada as a whole is somewhere around step 9. What is unfortunate is even after witnessing it happening to us here in the U.S. that Canadians have a propensity to believe the situation is different there. In fact, it has been following suit to the “T” We’ve known, in fact, for some time that Canadian house holds have exceeded Americans in consumer indebtedness and Canadians have a negative savings rate, so yesterday’s news from Carney should not have been any kind of a surprise to anyone. If anything, it should only be confirmation. I suspect a surge in listings to be forthcoming now, which only compresses prices with the laws of supply/demand.

    I’m confused still why oh why some still would believe IT won’t happen there. It already is and ALL factors that took down the U.S. are in place in Canada, including predatory lending standards and sub-prime lending and it has been going for quite some time. You say tomato, I say FRAUD. Emergency rates “saved” Canada from declining alongside the U.S. The only thing those rates did is further pump the Canadian market even higher, meaning the prices must now come down that much lower. The ONLY way the decline will end is when prices are actually around 3 to 4 times a household’s income, amortized over 30 years. This is where the market truly stabilizes.

    I am not sure how many have leveraged their homes to tap into their “equity” and spend spend spend, but from the sounds of this new, it appears Canadians have spent even more than Americans. This is exceedingly problematic as Canada produces “recourse” loans to protect the BANKS (the f*ckers that certainly helped to create this mess. I, for one, hold them more accountable than anyone as they are the “experts” in credit lending), which will certainly wipe out consumers for an indefinite matter of time. This definitely will not end well.

    It is all fun and games…. until it isn’t anymore.”

    My brother in law replied from his iBerry BlackPad:
    “When it bursts I’ll be glad to pay you as I’ll finally be able to afford a home.

    And when it doesn’t I’ll be glad to accept the hundred from you as it’ll contribute to my downpayment…

    Either way it’s a win win for me!!!!!!!!!!”

    And I replied:

    “ummm if by “home” u mean condo or townhouse, sure. If u mean house, forget it. u wanta house u better hope i’m SUPER right. a 35% reduction brings average price back to 2005 levels. U’d still be paying 700,000 for the average vancouver dump. while u might qualify for 700,000 mortgage today with 10% down and 30 year ammortization, in three years they will have tightened the requirements to 25% and 25 years, AND the interest rate will be higher, so u’ll have to qualify for more than double the monthly payments that u would today. Sooooo…. not all win-win. U want me to set that crisis in motion yet? “

  6. CHINA to Bail out EU? Hu-Jintao is talking through his pointed head.

    China is in trouble if growth slows an iota. lots of migrant workers are unemployed and the reverse drain back to a buck a day is not in the hopes and dreams of millions of angry Chinese.

    The leverage that Chinese have used to build the world’s largest Potemkin Village will find out what Capitalism really means, and in quick order.

    This is going to be an awful 2-5 years for many people, maybe longer – and most over indebted, granite countertopped, sub-zero fridged, are B R O KE.

    They better not ask prudent people to pay for it – or there will be HELL to pay.

  7. Hey, ‘anonymous’…
    Thanks for the substantial anecdotes on this and other threads. All much appreciated; interesting stuff.
    We will headline most of them in coming days, they deserve that.

    It seems like you’re having an interesting time, discovering discussion on the various Vancouver RE sites that is relevant to your situation. I remember the feeling.

    Would you like to adopt a specific handle so we can refer to you less ‘anonymously’?

  8. Four years ago, a happy man with no knowledge of economics or markets, while getting ready to purchase a house in Vancouver, I stumbled on one of those real estate blogs that have become so well known to us who follow real estate in this city.

    As doubts permeated my life, I began reading and reading more every day, so blogs like Mish’s, ZH, Garth’s etc etc became my daily information fix. They seemed to make sense with their “imminent collapse” predictions and also caressed my dream of getting a house on the cheap.
    I lived for 4 year anxiously anticipating change that never arrived and my emotional being was severely depressed in the process.

    Today, 100 000 CAD thrown away in rent since, I realise that renting really sucks when you have a family and kids and the affordability has deteriorated even more since 4 years ago. I can’t afford a house in this city anymore.

    I also realise that daily reading of blogs that predict “imminent Armageddon” is a pointless exercise and a complete waste of time. They are in the business of getting some more ad money while trying to generate more readership. What better way to do that than fear mongering!

    So this year, I am taking my New Year resolution early: Stop reading all the internet crap about “end of the world” and get back to living life as before. Nobody can predict the future. Buy a house whenever you can afford it, the crash might not ever come.
    Happy holidays and adieu!

    • Thanks for the anecdote ‘reality check’; will headline.

      BTW, at VREAA, we actually PAY wordpress for the right to NOT have ads on our pages. So this, FTR, is not a blog that generates any income whatsoever.

    • So this year, I am taking my New Year resolution early: Stop reading all the internet crap about “end of the world” and get back to living life as before. Nobody can predict the future. Buy a house whenever you can afford it, the crash might not ever come.
      Happy holidays and adieu!

      I think the mistake many make who see the writing on the horizon is that they want it to be over with and thus see the events that will happen much closer than they really are.

      It’s also a bit like “get it over with”. I am partially in that mindset as well. I know it can’t end well and I want it to be over with and the quicker the better as we then can start over again.

      So that’s the “emotional side”, the one that gets others to buy property in a bubble and then tell themselves it all will be good, just in reverse.

      Be realistic about what will happen. The decline will happen, it won’t be a one off, values won’t diminish by 50% or or more over night. The US has been in it, in a much larger market with much less leverage / exposure by the individual, now for half a decade and it’s not over.

      Look at Japan, they had their crash in the early 90s, they are still not out of it.

      Whatever will happen in Canada will be a long unwind that will last at least a decade if not longer (if it goes faster we’re all screwed). Take your money, stash it away in a safe investment and bite your time. Yeah, it sucks, but on the other hand in five years you may look at today and realize that you actually got off lucky. All a matter of perspective.

  9. Reality Check,
    Please, continue reading these blogs instead of reading jokes; VREAA and Garth’s followers need some places to flush their pointless exercise. And Wait until VREAA tells you how much money you have saved by renting.
    Merry Christmas to all.

  10. [From Anonymous; hereafter The Poster Formerly Known as Anonymous]

    whoa, is it just me or are other readers’ spider senses tingling?

    My Realdar is pinging like crazy…..

    • No, TPFKAA – you’re not alone. My very reliable synthetic aperture/phased array RealDar indicates a ‘target rich environment’ of proximal low rent information warriors vectoring towards VREAA (which means, by implication, that VREAA is now the most ‘dangerous/serious’ forum for all things YVR RE)… VREAA, you might want to implement DEFCON4. 😉

      • one swallow does not a summer make…
        one reader turned into writer does not a DEFCON4 precipitate.

      • actually, now that I’ve had more coffee… I was going to leave off writing for a bit, but I feel I have to say something. I have “vectored” in to this site to share my experiences, as limited as they are. I felt it my duty to share with others as they have generously shared – I owe a debt of enlightenment to the many who bothered to post real stories from their lives, in keeping with the spirit of this forum – instead of using it for snide comments at and arguments with other posters. (The realtor’s spam posting aside -that posting is hitting blogs all over as we speak since the writer is too lazy to rephrase. It’s obviously spam, and deserves snide replies – but I gave him the benefit of the doubt in the end nonetheless.)

        This was one forum I expected where one would be free to report experiences without being judged for one’s status in the property market. I sincerely hope that your “proximal low rent information warrior” was not a snide reflection on the fact that I rent… and would not like to pay more than 1800 in Burnaby…. because I’m sorta seeing it that way, and am a little offended. I don’t want to get into an e-penis measuring contest in regards to income, savings, purchasing power, profession, status, what we can actually afford, etc. but why must an “information warrior” be “low rent” if they arrived six years ago and admit they cannot justifiably “afford” a house in this market?
        Or am I being overly sensitive to the implied connotations? This society has a way of doing that to the sub-species known as renters…

        I am going a little evangelical on the postings volume, I must admit, and for this I apologise. I had a lot of anecdotes built up over the past month that I felt would be of interest. A drastic volume reduction is in short order, as I am completely out.

        Thank you VREAA for putting this site together and holding it all together. You are doing a fantastic job, and are saving so many people from years of misery.

        I will probably email you any future anecdotes I hear so that you can publish/not publish them in your own time.

        Now to enjoy Christmas with the kids and wife! Merry Christmas everyone, and a happy new year!!!!!!

      • VREAA, you might want to implement DEFCON4.

        Defense Condition (DefCon) actually counts down. DefCon 1 means all out nuclear war, DefCon 5 means all out peace.

        I think we’re currently at DefCon 3: Increased alert, quickly approaching DefCon 2 (that would be assembling the troops), with DefCon 1 probably following by mid to late 2012 / early 2013.

    • AuContraire, TPFKAA!… actually, my prior remarks had nothing to do with you (other than agreeing with your ‘spidy senses’ re: industry spam/blatant trolling)… More specifically, ‘low rent information warriors’ references paid per post trolls hired to disrupt/destroy online information exchanges like VREAA. Does that help? 😉

      • ohhh… I have much to learn. Can I be your Padowan?

        It seems it’s as easy to make an ass of yourself behind a keyboard as it is in real life! Wow, soon we can live our entire lives on teh webz and never leave our beds!

        sorry for the misunderstanding! its really easy to misread these things on screen…

  11. VREAA,
    This is a target-rich environment for anecdotes. All one has to do is open one’s eyes. That’s all I did.

    I have a few more actually but I fear oversaturating the market, causing an eventual undersupply of demand for Vancouver Real Estate anecdotes.

    oh okay, then, just two more.

    So I ask my brother-in-law’s fiance about her plan to HELOC the parents’ house for a DP. (No, not Double Penetration…..it’s Down Payment, for those just joining us on the blog this evening. I made that mistake so you don’t have to).

    She is very bullish (a new word I learnt while here) about Real Estate, to the point that when I told that 32 of 32 such asset growth cycles have ended in a bust, she told me she believed vancouver will be the first not to. (I exaggerated and did not include UK and Australia, those awkward little exceptions pending resolution – more technically it’s 32/34 but I did not want to get too pedantic on the explanations.) Their plan now was to save for a DP on a house (household income in the 110000 range). I told her if that was her belief, she should do whatever she could to get into the market as soon as possible, or she will be priced out forever. She said “nah, we’ll wait till we’ve saved enough”. Then I pointed out that the average house appreciates by around 70-80k a year, so they would have to save that much just to keep pace with the prices. “Oh, thanks a lot, TPFKAA!”
    You’re welcome, said I.

    Asked “ahem” someone I know from a shop I shop at (I really don’t want people to know I am reporting what they tell me, just in case they feel awkward about it should they ever stumble here, so I change a few contextual details such as relationships and places to disguise their identity somewhat – I hope this doesn’t detract from the authenticity of the stories; I aim to report every detail as faithfully as I can) …how much their house was. $550000, paid 50000 over asking a couple of years ago. In East Van, lot value only, house very old and needs renovation. Six working adults share the mortgage and the house, but no money left over for renovation. I feel very sorry for them. She suspects the market may come down (her coworker got his first ever decline in value on the assessment form) but I think cultural factors make it very hard for them to rent. Man, they may have to live crowded like that and working to pay interest for at least ten years…. what happens if there’s a marriage? This boom is not a very nice one in many regards.

    Now I end on a quote from one of our friends with the white jackets in the “horizontal suspenders” style:

    “Buy a house whenever you can afford it”

    Friend, I intend to.

    You may wish to consult a dictionary for a more precise definition of the word “afford”.

  12. hey, any of you guys read the great Canadian literature “Under the Ribs of Death”? It’s not like you guys don’t have warnings from past generations about asset bubbles and how they affect even the prudent who didn’t buy in.

    I love that book.

  13. Hey Reality Check, I am sorry you never realised your “dream of getting a house on the cheap.”
    I also “realise that renting really sucks”. Believe me, you have NOOOO idea. Unless you read my other posts under other topics. I do tend to go on a bit; it’s just because all the floodgates just opened and I have to get it all off my chest.

    ” when you have a family and kids and the affordability has deteriorated even more since 4 years ago.” Yes, however in my case, it wasn’t affordable then, and it isn’t affordable now. If it were affordable I’d be mortgaged to the hilt just like everyone else, nervously biting my bull hooves hoping that all these have-nots posting away into the night are wrong. I didn’t try to outsmart the market as you did. I came came within 10,000 more saved dollars of pathetic little downpayment to springing for a 1950s bungalow on an easement in Surrey backing onto railway land that if BC rail decided it needed, would cut the corner of the house off. Well, the 10,000 wasn’t as big an obstacle as the wife’s reluctance towards the place.

    And funnily enough, dude, I also “can’t afford a house in this city anymore.”

    So why quit reading these blogs? Might as well keep on reading, can’t do any harm to hope, now, can it? In your case too, as the affordability problem still exists… maybe you haven’t been reading the tripe that Garth puts out lately, but you obviously also missed the tripe that Mark Carney and that Flaherty guy put out. Chck it out, do some reading; you may find your flagging hopes revived. Keep the faith, brother, keep the faith. Don’t lose courage.

  14. hey, I just realised all my posts open with hey – holy repetitious intro Batman!

    [Sorry, sorry, Bogarting the Blog a little. Promise it’s the last time I touch the keyboard tonight.]

  15. I’ll see if I have time to write up one of my favourite anecdotes in the coming week. A mix of scariness and flabbergastery for the annals of the Internet.

  16. Oh yeah I forgot to add…

    The realtor’s brother also told me that this december was unseasonably busy on the westside, busier than any previous years. Lots of buyer activity and sales for them at least.

    I think that may be the last anecdote I get from there though, since all this was heard before our big argument, which I referred to in other threads.

    one more i guess… not so sensationalistic. I got into a conversation with another parent at one of my daughters’ classes a few weeks ago, after first learning of the existence of the hypothesised bubble. He told me their house, in New Westminster, was just a home to them (bought in ’02 I think; early on anyway) and they did not care where the market went. In fact he said “We could use a market correction.” He does not treat his house as an investment vehicle in any way and obviously isn’t HELOCed.

  17. even stranger bubble than Vancouver’s — 64 million homes sitting empty in China http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1339536/Ghost-towns-China-Satellite-images-cities-lying-completely-deserted.html

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