International RE Investor: “We are not stupid. This market is probably the worst RE investment in the entire world. I’ll buy Vancouver RE in 2011 when the values are 60% lower.”

This from VRENGD at vancouvercondo.info 19 Jan 2010 1:42 pm

“Vancouver is an irrational bubble. Just like Ireland, its economy is founded on construction and RE speculation. When that stops, we will have 10% unemployment. I personally have about $1.5M in cash left in the bank after a couple of purchases in California (where rents cover my mortgage payments plus some profit). I’m waiting to buy Vancouver RE in 2011 when the values are 60% lower. The bulls think that international investors will buy Van RE at these levels. Let me tell you something: we are not stupid. By any rational measure (historic price growth, price to rent, price to income) this market is probably the worst RE investment in the entire world. Trust me, there are no international investors buying Van RE right now. It is just a bunch of deluded, frenzied locals.”

4 responses to “International RE Investor: “We are not stupid. This market is probably the worst RE investment in the entire world. I’ll buy Vancouver RE in 2011 when the values are 60% lower.”

  1. How I wish I could believe this. The problem with the internet is anyone can say anything. I am sure that there are investors that know Vancouver is a rip off, but I would be willing to bet there are some who have no idea.

    Not to try to discredit this guy but even if he is an investor who knows vancouver is a bad investment, it doesnt mean they all know that.

  2. davers -> thanks for the comment.
    Yes, that is indeed one of the limitations of anecdotes.
    What we know from this story is that there is at least one investor out there who has money and motivation to invest in RE but has chosen to avoid Vancouver. There may be more.

  3. I mostly just have a problem with this statment.

    “there are no international investors buying Van RE right now”

    There is no way he/she could possibly know that. In fact I am almost positive he is wrong. There are thousands if not millions of people out there who still think RE is the best investment you can make. At least a few of them have very recently thrown down money for a place in vancouver. There are hundreds of sales every week, you cant tell me at least one of those is someone from out of town trying to make a profit.

    I like these anecdotes because they offer different points of view. Though they may not all be true, they are interesting. This one just makes blanket unprovable statments that are most likely wrong.

  4. I agree that at least some of the sales are to foreign investors. We’ve had recent posts here informing us of quite a few, and there is also some anecdotal evidence that recently foreign buyers may have represented more than the oft quoted 4-5% of the market, especially in some areas of the city.

    I suspect that VRENGD, in their post quoted above, was using some hyperbole. If you held them to it, they may rephrase and say “in my opinion, no knowledgeable international investors are buying Van RE right now”. Or something like that.

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