Toronto Anecdote – “There hasn’t been a lot of time spent on discussing the human side of investing in a real estate bubble”

VREAA is a collection of anecdotes from Vancouver and its immediate surrounds. Occasionally, however, an anecdote from elsewhere in Canada speaks so powerfully of issues that are relevant to our market that they merit mention here. This anecdote from Garth Turner’s greaterfool.ca article 24 Nov 2009 crosses that threshold, so I post it here, with it’s out-of-province source (Toronto) clearly noted. It speaks to the financial and social risks of being a young FTB in a RE bubble market. A mortgage broker in Toronto describes their children’s friend’s travails -

“House purchase summer of 2008.   100% financing, 40 year amortization.  Husband a carpenter, wife at home with the new baby.  November 2008, husband laid off, wife goes back to work for minimum wage. Still not enough family income to pay the mortgage and buy groceries. Value of house has dropped 10%.  Payout of mortgage was higher than the purchase price the day they completed, by virtue of 100% financing and the CMHC fee.  Real Estate commission 7% on the first $100,000, 3.5% on the balance.  Shortfall would be $49,000.  Couples’ families want to help.  Daughter and baby move home with her parents.  Son moves home to his parents.  Duplex is rented out to cover the mortgage payment. This doesn’t work.  Husband moves in with wife and her parents.  This doesn’t work.  Couple rent cheap apartment. This doesn’t work.  Mother and child leave after 8 year relationship. There hasn’t been a lot of time spent on discussing the human side of this recession or investing in a real estate bubble but it is important to note the consequences are not [limited to] a loss of money or investment.”

“A ’single family dwelling’ in Vancouver will more than likely have at least 2 households, I’ve personally seen 4 per house.”

This from bgard at greaterfool.ca on 22 Nov 2009 at 2:08 pm -

“I own a very similar house [to recently featured 265 East 24th Ave], probably in the same neighbourhood. In fact when I first saw the picture I thought it was my house. Even have a similar colour scheme…though mine is much nicer. Nicest house on crack alley as my wife likes to say. But on to the meat. My taxes (on an assessed value of 700K) are 5,000/year. Hydro and Gas are 3,000/year, for the 3 households that live here, same as in the example. Plus 1,000 for insurance. A ’single family dwelling’ in Vancouver will more than likely have at least 2 households, I’ve personally seen 4 per house. So you have to factor that in to the overall cost of RE. And taxes never go down. I’ve owned for 12 years and seen my assessments drop twice, last March (when assessments were done at mid dip) and from about ’98 to ’00. I have always paid more each year.”

Herb adds at 5:56 pm that in Ottawa, a 475K house has annual taxes of $6,140 and utilities of $5,200.

‘Real Life’ – “This week I heard this…..”

This intense concentration of anecdotes breaks all records for efficiency of story telling on VREAA. Please send your own observations. Here’s Real Life at vancouvercondo.info 21 Nov 10:43 am -

“This week I heard this:

1. Hotel in Whistler – “last year was bad, this year is worse” (Global TV)
2. Fitness Centre in Fraser Valley – closing after 12 years (friend works there)
3. Condo back on market for -20% than paid 18 months ago (FTB friend)
4. Hours cut by 50% (friend that is an electrician)
5. Renegotiated rent (friend had landlord reduce rent from $1250 to $1050 in Chilliwack – for 1 year old 4 bedroom house.)”

Olympic Rental Oversupply

This exchange regarding Olympic renting at RE Talks, from 20 Nov 2009 11:46 -

nico101 – “I have a house near Commercial Drive which is losing it’s tenants for the upper 2 floors on Dec 1st. I still have the basement suite tenants though. Given the timing I’m considering the whole Olympic rental thing.”

Agitprop – “My sister has had her place with a jaw dropping view in West Van, listed for a month or two….nada. The market is WAY oversupplied.”

“My wife, young daughter and I are quite content to rent a place for $1,450 a month that would easily list for $700,000 (and probably go into a bidding war to sell for more).”

This from Contrarian in Vancouver, on greaterfool.ca, 20 Nov 2009 11:54 am -

“I live in Vancouver. My wife, young daughter and I are quite content to rent a place for $1,450 a month that would easily list for $700,000 (and probably go into a bidding war to sell for more). Our landlord arranges for the lawn to be cut, landscaping taken care of, and immediately takes care of any repairs. Got to admit, he’s great…kinda makes me feel like I’ve got it too easy. We’ve got a couple hundred thousand sitting on the sidelines in safer investments earning a little interest (aside from our RRSPs which are very diversely invested, life insurance and no debt).  I’m a 40 year old investment advisor with a contrarian and value based philosophy. As I tell my older clients when recommending laddered GICs as part of their portfolio, it’s not just paying 3.35%, you’re getting 103.35% as you know you’ll get your money back. Can’t say that about many investments these days – especially real estate. Heck, the cap rate’s got to be close to that but the risk is huge (oh wait, I forgot real estate only goes up!! – Hasn’t anybody looked at a graph of real estate in Vancouver for the last 40 years?) Luckily for me most of my clients are much older and have no debt. Bad for them is that their kids (in their 50s) can’t say the same, and of course it gets downright worrisome when grandkids (who are in their 20s and 30s) situations are brought up.  Meanwhile the plan for my family is that we’ll keep socking away into our RRSPs, keep building our down payment and in a few years when the @#!$ is really hitting the fan, pick up a pretty nice place and pay it off in less than 10 years. (Hopefully the banks won’t have a problem accepting a 30-40% down payment then! lol).”

“I sold my investment home in late 2005 and am waiting to buy a rental property when fundamentals make sense.”

This from Disbelief at robchipman.net 18 Nov 2009 6:57 pm -

“I am not a renter, I am a west side homeowner. I sold my investment home in late 2005 and am waiting to buy a rental property when fundamentals make sense. Investors aren’t buying into the hype, at least smart investors.”

“I’m single and have a salary that is in the high five-figures, which puts me up in the top 20% of households in Vancouver, yet I can’t afford to purchase a SFH in East Vancouver.”

This from oneangryslav2 at vancouvercondo.info 18 Nov 2009 11:42 am -

“Please let us in on the secret. How is it that people can afford million dollar homes? I still don’t get it. I’m single and have a salary that is in the high five-figures, which puts me up in the top 20% of households in Vancouver, yet I can’t afford to purchase a SFH in East Vancouver.”

Krazy Kanuck & his Vancouver RE Kalkulations

As home prices inflate to stratospheric levels, the utility of the sale price of many homes would cause a percentage of owners to ‘cash in’ – sell, move/rent, and live comfortably on the proceeds. (As one owner planning on selling and leaving Vancouver told vreaa, “I’ll never have to work another winter”.) The flip side of this is that many potential buyers are now sitting on their hands, as they are aware of the utility of the money that they save by doing so. This position is expressed here by Krazy Kanuck at greaterfool.ca 17 Nov 2009 11:05 pm, who has the added advantage of “living temporarily” in Vancouver, which probably gives him useful perspective. -

“I’m living temporarily in Vancouver (the epicenter of delusion), and I can’t wrap my head around the fact that if someone gave me $1 million, I could either: 1) buy a house here…and not a great one, only a good one, OR 2) buy $1 million worth of dividend stock funds, rent the house, put food on the table, and probably run a car. (I’m assuming a 3.6% yield…or $3k a month….for doing NOTHING!!) And my friends call me Krazy.”

“My dreams of buying cheap real estate are over. I don’t need to own, and current buyers are far crazier than I would have *ever* expected.”

This from rp at vancouvercondo.info 17th Nov 2009 10:31 am -

“My dreams of buying cheap real estate are over. I don’t need to own, and current buyers are far crazier than I would have *ever* expected. We just witnessed a worldwide financial crisis – the biggest in 80 years – and they are lining up to mortgage their lives away for a dream. Casting themselves onto the rocks is more like how I see it, because I don’t see how this could possibly be over. I save enough money to provide decent financial security for my family and will continue to do so. I’m 30 years old. It would feel good to settle down, but instead I’m going to remain flexible about where I live and what job I take.”

“It is annoying to see almost all our friends have moved to their new houses recently. Our hearts sink every time we hear mainstream media telling us next year housing price will continue to go up.”

The real estate boom has shut out some prudent citizens who would, under more normal circumstances, be homeowners. Some feel despair, others great inconvenience. Some gain solace from local and national real estate blogs, in the following case, from Garth Turner’s greaterfool.ca. This post by ‘Mom Society’ at greaterfool.ca 16 Nov 2009 10:33 pm appears to be an update and elaboration from the same poster whose earlier thoughts are archived at VREAA 7 Nov 2009 -

“We desperately want to buy a place with a yard as we have an 18 months old son and he needs a place to play. Although our annual income is around $15,000 more than average, we still find we can not afford anything with a yard, even in Surrey. It is annoying to see almost all our friends have moved to their new houses recently. Our hearts sink every time we hear mainstream media telling us next year housing price will continue to go up. Actually we don’t care if your [Garth Turner's] prediction would be accurate, no one has crystal ball. At least your blog gives us hope in this raining winter, give us a hope to allow us still dream we may have a home with yard in the future. Thank you. If we are belonging to middle class or working class, I feel [we are not alone in] our sadness.”

“I just don’t get it… why the rent is so low, or why the sale price is so high?”

Gloria, at robchipman.net, on 16 Nov 2009, 9:27 am, discovers that Vancouver RE price to rent ratios make no sense. The unit that she describes has a price:rent ratio of 390, and that’s before any talk of maintenance fees (which would put the ratio well above 400).  These ratios would imply that, from a historical perspective, the sales price is over twice what it should be.

“Luxurious ‘O2′ on Davie / Denman St. has several units for sale, and one of them (2bdr/2bthr, 975 sq.ft)  is both for sale and for rent. The sale price is 975k, and the rent is $2500 per month.  I just don’t get it… why the rent is so low, or why the sale price is so high?”

“Yes, the interest rates will rise, but my salary will also increase. If I’m laid off, or my mortgage skyrockets, I’ll work my ass off to keep it all together.”

Vancouver RE currently demonstrates historically record high price-to-rent ratios. Despite this, very, very low interest rates continue to make buying look attractive, especially if one only considers monthly payments. This illustrative example from Beth (2009 Nov 13, 20:27) in the comments section of the 12 Nov 2009 ‘Vancouver RE market bounces back’ article in the Georgia Straight, by Charlie Smith -

“My rent was $975 a month for a crappy, 35 year old one bedroom that didn’t have insuite laundry or anything, and where the landlord would knock twice then enter my suite without advance notice for non-emergencies, once even while I was on the toilet. Now, my mortgage is the same for a 12 year old one bedroom with laundry, fireplace, dishwasher. This includes maintenance fee. And I can have a pet. And no landlord can come in because he feels like it. Yes, the interest rates will rise, but my salary will also increase. If I’m laid off, or my mortgage skyrockets, I’ll work my ass off to keep it all together. I am confident in my ability to make it work. Downpayment? Some people work two jobs and weekends for years and years and years to save up for one; others inherit it when a loved one passes away; others borrow money interest-free from family, and others have it handed to them by well-to-do parents who would rather their kids have a condo than live in a dump run by a slumlord. Do you blame them? It’s not really anyone’s business where a downpayment comes from. It’s not a crime to have a downpayment.”

Young, Patient, and Renting

These anecdotes from greaterfool.ca post of Nov 3rd 2009, and the ensuing comments -

This from Canucks Fan -

“I’m recently married in Vancouver, income around $85k and wife is looking for work, 29 years old with about $55k in RRSPs ($25k in a money market fund ready to use as a first time homebuyer), $25k in stock, and $65k in cash. No debt, paid for car, and renting for approximately $1200/month with the intent to buy as soon as fundamentals make sense.
… All of my friends have purchased in the past 5 years, many at 5/35, and while I’m happy to rent for as long as necessary (maybe look at a bigger place?) it would be nice to put some of the cash to use. I just feel like I’m spinning my wheels saving every month when the market goes up more than I can save. I’ve been able to keep the new wife satisfied with a honeymoon in Asia, new furniture, and the ability to stay at home while she looks for work. Once she finds something though I know her nesting instinct will kick in…”

This from Jim -

“I’m in a similar situation, 10 years older and have been waiting for over seven years, but property here seems to hold its value. … Even if rates go to 6 percent and the asset value goes down 10-15 % people will likely hang on. I don’t see how the market will correct substantially, except maybe for all of the cheap, small and poorly built condos.”

From Cyrus -

“I am in almost the exact same situation as Canucks Fan (except with about half as much saved). As the days go by, I become more and more comfortable with the idea of renting for the long term. It has been almost two years sans mortgage and with that, reduced stress. As a 26 year old, I believe my generation has grown up with the idea that the place you live in is also an investment. This idea will perhaps come back to bight some in the not so distant future.”

From taylor192 -

“I live in Kits and rent a 2bdrm for $1900. Its valued at ~$550K, which at 35/5 is $2300. Then add $300 condo fee and $300 in tax. I’m saving $1000 or 30% renting. If I was paying the mortgage I’d only be paying down the mortgage $600.”

“We are holding our breath and keeping our happy little family of three in a 1 bedroom 560sqft condo in Kits”

This from ‘family of sardines in Vancouver’ quoted on Garth Turner’s greaterfool.ca blog, October 29th, 2009 -

“We are holding our breath and keeping our happy little family of three in a 1 bedroom 560sqft condo in Kits (that crazy Realtors have priced at $400,000) and waiting for the day when the cash we’ve saved up will be worth something a wee bit larger. While the Realtors keep telling us to fear the rising interest rates, the math doesn’t work – how do you justify bidding up an already overpriced home by another $200,000? I’ll keep working on the down payment, take a raise in interest rates, forget the bidding war increase, and possibly have a more reasonable price instead – thank you very much!”