Tag Archives: Life

An Ex-Pat Comes Home – “I’ve been frustrated talking to friends and family in Canada about housing because I honestly feel like I’ve traveled backwards 5 years in time, to when reasonable discussion was impossible in California, and house prices were only going up-up-up.”

CalgaryLurker at greaterfool.ca 27 Mar 2010 7:55 pm -

“I want to share my experiences as a former expat coming back home. I lived in San Francisco/Bay Area for most of the last 11 years and recently chose to move back to Canada for family.  Since being back, I’ve been somewhat frustrated talking to friends and family about housing because I honestly feel like I’ve traveled backwards 5 years in time, to when reasonable discussion was impossible in California, and house prices were only going up-up-up.
I think what frustrates me the most though is knowing what it was like to live through the years after that peak, and the possibility of reliving them yet AGAIN here in Canada. The truth is I very much would like to own a home, I just am unwilling to sell my financial future to do it, which is what the last decade has asked of home ownership.
I am in my late 30s and have never owned a home, but instead chosen to rent. Financially I am certainly capable of buying, and came close on several occasions, but for various reasons ultimately decided it didn’t make sense for me. Our culture’s recent obsession that views homes as investments is an aberration in my view, and over the years I have chosen to put my money to work elsewhere. I suppose I developed this thinking during the 80s as I watched my father tried to sell our family homes during recessions in Alberta, usually at a loss. It certainly coloured his thinking.
After I moved to San Francisco in my late 20s, I watched the dot com bubble inflate and pop, lived through power brownouts, 911, antiwar protests, two terms of Bush, and saw the California real estate bubble inflate and pop, and the budget crisis that followed. What stayed with me is that nothing moves in a straight line for very long. It’s never different this time. People will always move en masse to find the next good thing (or avoid the next terrible thing) whether looking for a job or an investment. It has made somewhat cautious when dealing with my money and big social events like bubbles. Animal spirits be damned!
I do understand what the ride up feels like. It is exciting and it feels GOOD. I had to line up with 30-40 people just to see an apartment to rent, and usually had to overbid! In my industry, everyone was trying to figure out how to get an investment property or three. HELOCs were providing family trips to Hawaii and brand new cars. Every lunchroom conversation was about home reno projects. Etc..etc.. I chose not to buy back then even though a dozen of my friends and co-workers did because the numbers just seemed silly to me (perhaps being the son of an CPA something rubbed off). In retrospect I am very glad I didn’t cave to the pressure I was feeling at the time (though I went to open houses and talked to realtors, so it was close). Today many of my friends in California are underwater on their homes but making payments, some have lost their vacation and rental properties, and some are under threat of foreclosure. Many have had to scale back their lives. One even used to live in Stockton, the ground zero for the central valley collapse, where entire streets were gutted before he moved to Seattle. He lost about 200k of equity and considers himself lucky.
And these are not poor or dumb people by most standards. All of them work in software making 6 figure combined incomes, but they ‘caught the bug’ and started to believe the narrative. It is infectious. And, as you know from Garth’s site, the mortgages that have been issued over the past few years are stretched for perfection. If prices drop more than a few percent, or rates go up a little, or a few bad apples default, it starts a cascade. And although San Francisco proper was more shielded than further out communities from the declines, they eventually felt it too. This in the city that was’ jewel of the west coast’, and where ‘they are making no more land’, like so many arguments I hear now about Vancouver.
So, I recognise now I will likely have to rent until 2014-15 before the crash has played itself out here. Hopefully it will go quicker since the government has relatively fewer schemes left in its pocket to keep the prices high. I will be moving to Vancouver shortly (for business) and it is astonishing to me that prices are now HIGHER than San Francisco’s were, even at its peak. And I used to tell Americans friends about the sensibility of Canadians….
One side effect of the crash in California I noticed was the exodus of people. Either because they were broke, or lost their jobs, or didn’t like what was happening to the social programs, etc. Many people I know are now in Austin, Portland, and Seattle, cities which didn’t crash as mightily, but where housing is cheaper to begin with. (Actually look up the luxury 6000 sqft places with huge lot that you can get in Texas for the price of a Calgary condo. And that is simply what they cost, not crash pricing. Reminds you what housing SHOULD be.) These cities economies where buffered by the influx of people and I think are doing relatively better. The same might happen to Calgary and Edmonton when Vancouver starts to dip, but then again the American cities I mentioned have more diverse economies than in Alberta. If oil isnt high, the entire western provinces start to look like all of California.”

“I must talk to 5 people a week who say: “I’ve lost a ton of money in the stock market over the last ten years, but I’ve still got my house, and our plan is to sell our $1.2 million house and downsize to a $500K condo, in the next two or three or four years.”

A crucial component of the coming Vancouver RE price bust will be the liquidation of properties by those owners whose financial futures are entirely wrapped up in the market price of their primary residence. -vreaa

Danielle Park is an Ontario based portfolio manager and financial advisor. Here follow quotes from Park from an audio interview with Stirling Faux of ‘The Money and Wealth Show’ 25 Mar 2010 -

7:00 – “The problem is you have all these boomers who have been wiped out twice in the stock market in recent years, and the one solace is housing. I must talk to 5 people a week who say: “You know what, I’ve lost a ton of money in the stock market over the last ten years, but I’ve still got my house, and our plan is that we’re going to sell our 1.2 million house and downsize to a $500K condo, in the next two or three or four years.”

8:20 – “I think that boomers are going to find out that the population behind them has a whole lot less money and a whole lot less appetite for the million dollar homes.”

9:00 – “25 to 30% possible downside [in housing prices]… It could happen in a quick period of time, a few months, another way is [a long period of flat prices].”

14:45 – “If you’re thinking of downsizing… and If you’re in some of these hot cities… Try and figure out whether it’s better to sell sooner rather than later when everybody else plans to get out of overpriced real estate… I think maybe think of it sooner rather than later… and if you’re looking to buy, I wouldn’t be in a hurry. Let the prices come to you. This is the art of savvy investing.”

Many struggle to afford their homes – “The Conference Board defined housing costs as unaffordable if they exceeded 30 per cent of pretax income.”

What percentage of buyers of primary residences in Vancouver in recent years are spending more than 30% of their pretax income on their housing costs? What percentage of those having to eat less nutritious meals because of housing costs are ‘owners’? -vreaa.

The Conference Board of Canada released a report “Building From the Ground Up: Enhancing Affordable Housing in Canada” which is discussed in an article, ‘Many struggle to afford their homes’ in the G&M 30 Mar 2010. Excerpts:

“Many Canadians can only keep a roof over their heads by cutting costs in ways that could harm their health – such as buying less nutritious food.”

“About 75 per cent of Canadians are currently living in homes they can afford, the Conference Board said, adding a further 5 per cent have their housing costs subsidized by the government. That leaves 20 per cent of Canadians struggling to keep up with the cost of their homes, the report said. The Conference Board defined housing costs as unaffordable if they exceeded 30 per cent of pretax income.”

“The poor quality of housing construction and design is so obvious, you have to be blind not to notice it.”

Over at robchipman.net, a German man who lived in Vancouver for the last year, is about to return to Berlin, but first shares his impression of our city. Thanks to Híppos Purrós for alerting us to the anecdote.

Here’s German Guy at robchipman.net 29 Mar 2010 1:36 pm -

“Vancouver was a great experience but all good things come to an end I guess. I enjoyed this blog [robchipman.net] and the quality of posts here and learned a lot about the dynamics of BC and RE. As this is my last post here,  I wish you all the best and thank you to all contributors.

Here are some short impressions of my stay here:

Things that I liked:

Canadians:  I met a lot of wonderful people whom I hope to see again here or in Germany and hopefully remain friends for a long time.

The nature The nature The nature: I enjoyed hiking the west coast trail, meeting a wild bear, driving BC Alaska highway, seeing BC wild horses, whale watching , paddling in the Brown lakes, Kootenay Rockies and the wonderful drive from Banff to Jasper,  boarding  BC ferries, skiing in Whistler and lake O’Hara in Yoho park, flying kites with my kids on desert beaches, boating with friends, but most importantly I enjoyed being alone with nature and walking into the roads barely traveled. Only in BC can you do this!

Things I didn’t like:

Health care: I know that many people here are proud of Canadian health system, but our experience was not so good.  After one year here, we still could not find a family doctor. One time my wife had to go to the hospital, she was turned back as there were no rooms available, despite her condition being serious and needing observation according to the doctor . Some long time readers here know my saga with my sinus problem, although not serious, I first went to a walk in clinic last November 2009 only to get an appointment with a specialist by January 28th which after 5 minutes consultation prescribed me an antibiotic Avelox (prohibited in Germany , it almost destroyed my stomach) and a CT scan for which I have appointment on Tuesday October 12th 2010!
Meanwhile I was back in Germany during spring break, saw the specialist and got the CT scan done within 2 weeks, it cost me 95euros.

Public School: We were generally disappointed with the schooling system, kids never came from school with home work nor was really any accountability asked from the teacher. From our understanding the school here seems to be a place where kids go to have fun and play rather than abide to rules, learn the culture of effort and systematic work ethic.
If it is difficult, don’t do it, seems to be the motto.  Fund raising is the main preoccupation of the schools and it is rather frustrating to see the kids come home weekly with fund raising schemes for all kind of things.

Business Opportunities: I could not really find any real business opportunities here rather than some unprofitable franchises in the hospitality industry despite ample pools of capital (2 to 10M). Most small businesses I have analysed have so little profit margins that your money will get a smaller return than leaving it on a 5 year government note.  I looked into farms, wineries, manufacturing, engineering, and hospitality. Business owners I talked to, have extremely exaggerated ideas of the worth of their businesses at least when you look at the cash flow they generate. There seems to be a complete disconnect between risk and reward.
The job market seems to be mainly for low paying  jobs but maybe that is because of the recession.  The best thing that can happen to young people finishing school here is to land a government job or work for a crown corporation or other big company close to the government in my opinion.

Real Estate: Although much has been said here regarding real estate,  I only like to emphasize that the poor quality of construction and design is so obvious, you have to be blind not to notice it.  I have seen brand new construction houses selling for 2+million being built “a la va vite” with poor construction materials, poor design and a mix of tasteless kitschy interior finish that leaves most real estate value on the land rather than building from my perspective.
I have no doubts that Vancouver will get a severe correction in RE prices but trying to time it is a futile exercise.  When the downturn comes it will be painful, and all the myths of the rich Chinese investor and marijuana grow ops (not that they are inexistent!) shall be exposed. People will discover that this bubble is driven mainly by hard working Canadians buying 2 to 3 houses or more on cheap debt subsidised by CHMC, in a desperate rush not to be left behind the neighbour, work colleague, friend etc. as prices keep going higher and higher until they don’t.

Good luck to all. GG”

“A realtor was putting the hard sell to a couple regarding a Vancouver condo. As they were getting ready to leave, the couple asked him if he was going to pay for breakfast. He said yes. The lady then asked for a latte to go.”

This from Greenhorn at RE Talks 25 Mar 2010 10:04 am -

“At breakfast this morning, I could not help but listen to the conversation at the table next to me. It was between a Middle-eastern couple and a Middle-eastern realtor. The realtor was putting the hard sell to the couple regarding a Vancouver condo. He was advising that prices will continue to go up. He mentioned that if they furnished the condo, they would triple the rent, easily. He said “This is the last prime condo building in Yale Town”. He asked them how long they would be in town for, and they said 2 weeks. I heard him advise the couple to buy the property with a line of credit because the interest rate would be lower and it would be interest only, so a lower monthly payment. They then told the realtor they would think about it, and had to go. As they were getting ready to leave, the couple asked the realtor if he was going to pay for breakfast and he said yes. The lady then asked for a latte to go. Classic!”

“I have a young family and I seriously doubt there will be anything left for them. Boomers will drain the system. Homeowners will be trapped. I’ll keep my liquidity and mobility and get the hell out of here at the first whiff of serious trouble.”

Unfortunately, we share some of this poster’s concerns. -vreaa

rp at vancouvercondo.info 23 mar 2010 6:33 pm -

“The road to boomer wealth absolutely has been based on other peoples’ debt. They are in their years of maximum income and wealth, and they’re collectively putting the squeeze on younger generations. They’ll do it again as they retire and completely drain the system. I have a young family and I seriously doubt there will be anything for them. We are getting a nice preview from the US of what happens when governments have absolutely no money. They simply close schools, disband the police, etc. Meanwhile there are tons of administrators and what not who will or do make far more from their pensions than I can from working. I expect all resources to be devoted to the baby boomer generation and the median tax rate to approach 75% before it all simply collapses. The poor bastards who bought a house will be trapped. I’ll keep my liquidity and mobility and get the hell out of here at the first whiff of serious trouble.”

“Our discussions are not about when we are buying homes here, they are about when we will move back east. We were raised in large homes with lots of disposable income. We cannot imagine starting a family in a closet with little cash to spare.”

taylor192 at vancouvercondo.info 23 Mar 4:22 pm -

“I’m 31 years old and new to Vancouver (since 2008) from Ottawa. Most of the friends I’ve made are in a similar spot:
- ~30years old
- have above average jobs
- want to settle down and start families soon
- moved here because of the lifestyle and Olympics
- moved from places where housing was 1/2 the price, yet salaries about the same (or higher)

Our discussions are not about when we are buying homes here. They are about when we will move back east. We were raised in large homes with lots of disposable income. We cannot imagine starting a family in a closet with little cash to spare. The catch-22 is that if the housing market collapses here, our above average jobs may go with it.”

Married couple; Combined Income 110K; Bought new condo in Surrey 2009; Cancel dinner with friend; Visa maxed out; Cable bill used last of their cash.

From T at VREAA 22 Mar 2010 10:31pm -

“I have a friend who just got married last year. He and his wife are both employed by Coast Mountain Bus Co…so well paid by average standards…combined income of over 110k per year.
After they got married they bought a new condo in Surrey and furnished it. I was suposed to go for dinner with them tonight, but they had to cancel because they can’t afford it due to the cable bill taking the last of their cash out of their account and all their visa’s being maxed out. Boy am I a happy renter.”

The Froogle Scott Chronicles: Mortgaging Our Souls In Paradise – Raise or Raze Update

Inventory of new houses and major renovations

.

Raise or Raze Update

.
The next couple of episodes of The Froogle Scott Chronicles will cover our major renovation. The renovation was a big, three-year chunk of our lives during which a lot happened — both good and bad — so wrestling that amount of material into shape is taking a bit of time. In the interim I thought I’d give readers a quick update about some interesting things I’ve noticed recently in our neighbourhood.
.
The first thing that caught my attention was that within days of completing my mid-February inventory of major renovations and new houses in the pocket of Grandview we live in, the inventory was already out of date. A couple of weeks ago, I heard the now-familiar bashing and crashing sounds of a demolition underway. A small one, a half block from our house, an old deck being ripped off the back of a 1920s or 1930s house to make way for a new addition, by the looks of it. A block farther on, the same story — another rear addition on a house of the same vintage. And a block in another direction, a huge, house-altering reno has just begun, judging by the two-storey-high scaffolding surrounding the entire house. I guess when you go to the effort of enumerating and categorizing things, you kind of assume they’ll stay still for a while. Well, I guess not.
.
However, the other thing of note is what’s going on with a cluster of four houses I mentioned in the previous episode:
.
I pass through a two-and-a-half block stretch where one house is being raised, another across the street is demolished and a new house is being built, and around the corner two houses are being totally transformed by the addition of second storeys.
.
All of these projects were underway at the same time, and at various points you could say they were at roughly similar stages of completion. Two of the projects have been complete for a couple of months now, and the houses are occupied. But the other two appear to be stopped dead, within 80% or more of completion. The houses — one new, and one a major reno including a second-storey addition — have windows and doors in place, stucco and exterior trim applied, and with the exception of an exterior paint job, appear complete on the outside. Looking through the curtainless windows, I can see the interiors have all the drywall in place. But there has been no significant new work for weeks. It’s not a case of the finish carpenters, and flooring and tile and kitchen and bathroom trades, going in and out. These places appear stalled, and locked up. I might not have noticed so soon if not for the fact that one of these houses was definitely stalled for months during the economic collapse of 2008, and into 2009. It got to the point of being sheathed with plywood and covered with black building paper, and then nothing. It sat through an entire winter, and longer, while the rain and wind tore at the paper, stripping portions of it and exposing the bare plywood. When work recommenced, the first job for the crew was re-doing the building paper.
.
There could be any number of explanations for what’s going on with these two projects, but the one that springs most immediately to mind is that the owners have cash flow problems. I don’t think most people would voluntarily choose to leave a nearly complete single family dwelling in a central Vancouver neighbourhood just sitting empty. How much money are the owners losing, daily, by doing this? Carrying charges on a construction loan or line of credit, rent to live elsewhere. It doesn’t make sense. If their finances are like the finances of most people living in this neighbourhood, they have some money, but not money to burn.
.
I know the shocking speed at which our renovation ate through what we thought was a fairly good pile of credit. About ten grand a week for a three-man crew and materials, with various trades popping in and out to do their piece. And both of these projects are quite a bit more extensive than ours. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with these two places — I’ll keep readers of VREAA informed.
.
Vancouver real estate appears to be giving mixed signals at the moment, at least in our little patch of paradise.

“I was one of the unlucky 15 million people born into the city that ranks among the bottom 10 in the annual most-livable cities in the world survey. Then, quite magically, later in my life, I find myself among the lucky couple of million that live in the metropolitan region that is consistently on the top of that same list.”

A discussion regarding VREAA at RE Talks led to me observing that there were remarkably few personal stories  from Vancouver RE bulls on the internet. In response, arpakdel (RE Talks, 16 Mar 2010, 6:44 pm) kindly shared their story, which is archived here verbatim. It is an impassioned argument that demand for Vancouver is and will remain overwhelming. -vreaa

“Allright, here is a long one for your archives. It’s a bit of a story – my story, but it may just be right balance you need after posting the bit from that bitter woman that calls Vancouver a “second-rate backwater”:

I think the forces of the universe decided to first curse me and then to bless me. You see, because I was one of the unlucky 15 million people that was born into the city that ranks among the bottom 10 in the annual most-livable cities in the world survey. But then quite magically sometime later in my life, I find myself among the lucky couple of million that live in the metropolitan region that is consistently on the top of that same list – and funny enough, that city where I came from, although smaller in size than Vancouver, is already half the population of Canada.

But I would have settled for less than that. Hell, if I was put in just about any city in this mind-boggling massive country, I would have thanked the heavens and sacrificed the 30 goats I had pledged anyways.

And that may be my problem: I know what a shitty place to live in means first hand, and I shake my head when people living here just don’t get it. They can’t understand why a place like Vancouver will always be covetted by both insiders and outsiders. They don’t get that in our ever shrinking world, that means the demand for it will always be insatiable. For every one person that complains it rains too much here, I can find you 15 million of my country men that will smack in the face for not appreciating what it’s fresh air does to the body and soul. For everyone that will protest the politics of this blissfully free country, I will find you 15 million of my country men that will laugh and scorn how petty it is, because they grew up under the arbiterary whim of some beared ayotallah, and the boot of basij in their face. And for every one person that complains about the high-prices here and goes on and on about affordability and rental value analysis, the same 15 million will tell you the streets of their capital are littered with brilliant young minds with PhD’s in arm who can’t find jobs to pay half their rents and instead roam the streets each evening like mindless zombies, each day suicide looking more and more like a good vacation – and that is nothing to say of the 99% of the rest of young people who were not enough academic prodigies to even be able to get a seat in the extremely competetive universities or colleges.

But forget about that 15 million. The country is home to 70 million people. A small percent of that country is rich enough to buy their way into Canada. And what do you think they will do? They will buy homes. They will buy homes for themselves. And they will buy homes for their children. The other small percent will fight their way to Canada with teeth and nails…. and what will they do? Yes, they will buy homes, and they will buy them at market value. Your ROI, rental-value, forgone-oppurtunity analysis be fu**kin damned.

But forget about the country of 70 million people. Can you guess how many of the 4 billion in asia will want to live in a place like Vancouver? By 2020 the Vancouver region’s population is estimate to grow to 3 million. Some will move to Coquitlam, some will move to Surrey. They are coming, and they are not listening to your outcries that the prices for those “armpit sides of the city” are stupid stupid and that they are wrong for buying. While you scream, they will buy.

And you know what that means for you my dear friend? it will means increased demand everywhere.

Where people want to live and play, demand for real estate will always be there. And Vancouver is as prime as it gets. The formula that makes amazing is simple: take a country blessed with political freedom and economic riches, make a beautiful urban oasis along side a rugged coastal wonder, sprinkle it with mild weather, and voila. You have hit gold. Gold baby gold.”

“Our combined income is around 130k. I absolutely refuse to buy a $600K dump and max out on a mortgage that will only be affordable to us if interest rates never rise. I have no idea how the average person in this city can afford to buy.”

This from Tanya at VREAA 16 Mar 2010 2:44 am -

“I am in shock every time I look at real estate prices in this city. My husband and I both have jobs that would be considered above average to stats Canada. Our combined income is around $130k. I absolutely refuse to buy a $6ooK dump and max out on a mortgage that will only be affordable to us if interest rates never rise. While we are capable of doing major renovations ourselves, we would not be able to afford the materials under such a cripling mortgage. I have no idea how the average person in this city can afford to buy.”

“Yesterday, in a bus, I overheard the bus driver giving a passenger advice about high end condos in Coal Harbour.”

A shoe-shine-boy moment for our market. -vreaa

bubbly in vancouvercondo.info 14 Mar 2010 2:10 pm -

“Yesterday, in a bus, I overheard the bus driver giving a passenger advice about high end condos in Coal Harbour.”

“It’s Culturally Different This Time” – The ‘Cultural Difference’ Bull Argument for Vancouver RE

‘Vancouver Rocks’, a poster who frequents the greaterfool.ca site, has previously been featured here as a proponent of the ‘overwhelming demand’ bullish argument for Vancouver RE. Here he presents the argument that culturally determined behaviours make Vancouver RE different this time. We at VREAA don’t buy this argument (either), but we archive it here for posterity. With an appended succinct refutation by ‘junius’. -vreaa

Vancouver Rocks at greaterfool.ca 12 Mar 2010 6:09 pm -

“Vancouver has the highest percentage of young adults by government definitions (18-30) living at home in Canada. Much of this is cultural, where members in certain communities (Asian, East Indian just like Greeks and Italians in Toronto) do not leave home until they are married as renting is a huge waste of money in their eyes. When you leave at home for a couple years, it is very easy to accumulate a large DP when you have no expenses (someone making 30k living at home is much better off than someone making 60K having to rent). Factor in that 40% of the city is made up of primarily two ethnic minorities, and that people are getting married later, you have a situation where FTBS come to the table with very very large DPS that more than offset the high cost of houses. The do not need massive salaries to afford their homes…

Many FTBs also have large DPs from “unconventional” living arrangements by “traditional” living standards. In many communities, houses are bought by groups of immigrants who live 3-4 families to a house. Once that house is paid off, they facilitate migration of other relatives to purchase the next home, and repeat the process. When you have 3 extended families living together, all of which are committed to paying off the house, “average 2 person family incomes” are meaningless. These types of living arrangements also are more absorptive of economic shocks, as they do not rely on a sole breadwinner.

It is not rocket science. Posters from other parts of the country fail to realize that cultural attitudes and practices play into the market, and that you cannot simply use deterministic economic models to assume a crash will happen. The era of leaving your nuclear family home when you are 18, renting for many years trying to save a DP, and buying a house when you are married and settled career wise is dead in this city. That era still exists in other parts of the country, but not in two key metro areas – Vancouver and Toronto. That is why there is some truth to the statement all RE is local, and why blanket statements of universal crash are coming are meaningless. Many of the experts fail to see this…if you live here then you would see this and you would adjust your expectations of an impending crash accordingly. Some Vancouverites will try to refute this, but they know that this is an accurate portrayal of the RE landscape.”

junius at greaterfool.ca 12 mar 2010 6:33 pm refutes -

“These same factors exist in many other cities including US cities from New York to Miami to San Francisco and more affordable cities in Canada such as Montreal. They are not unique to Vancouver or Toronto and in no way support a continued affordability gap in the range that currently exists.”

The Trials Of Trying To Trade Your Vancouver Home For Profit

It is not easy to trade markets for profit, and even more difficult if you are trying to do that by trading the Vancouver RE market with your personal residence. If you make a bad trade in stocks, you lose money. If you make a bad trade with your home, you literally have to live with your error each and every day. In normal RE markets, people do not think of  their homes as potential trading vehicles, but in Vancouver we continue to live under very abnormal market conditions. The following story comes from someone who tried to profit by selling their Vancouver home during the drop from the summer 2008 peak. Essentially they were trading using a trailing stop: “when the market drops by ‘x’, I’ll get out”. They ended up being ‘whipsawed’, in that, almost immediately after their sale, the local RE markets turned around and rallied through 2009, purely (and with perverse irony) because of the free money brought in to rescue the world’s stock-markets. Now, with housing at a second peak (a likely ‘double top’), our protagonist is in the depths of remorse; they are very despondent about having traded out. Yet, note that their assessment still seems to be that the market is overheated. In vreaa’s opinion, if they simply hold steady with their renting, they will see properties like their original home drop back through the Jan 2009 trough and plummet down further. Their trade will end up being a profitable one, even though they will have been sorely tested by market volatility along the way. To realize their ultimate profit, they have to have courage to hold with their original conviction that housing in Vancouver is very overvalued and is set for a fall. And that conviction is tested when you are living in sub-optimal digs, with the reminders of your bad trade around you every day. Of course, the classic trading error in this situation is for ‘badkitty’ and her partner to panic and buy back into the market just in time for the second price descent, the ‘crash’ proper. Don’t do it, ‘badkitty’! -vreaa

This from badkitty at greaterfool.ca 12 Mar 2010 3:01 am, in response to someone wrestling with the owning or renting dilemma -

“We, sadly, listened to the contrarians in November 2008, sold our home in Vancouver when the market crashed and lost 30% of equity. That pathetically amounts to at least $300,000 of tax free money. We are renting right now and it sucks large. You want to make sure you are on the same page as [RE contrarians]. They make you feel like you are some sort of leper for wanting to nest and make a home for yourself – insisting that you are yuppie scum who have bought the lies of HGTV instead of recognizing that you just want what your parents wanted and their parents wanted..a home… They tell you to that you are a fool to want to live somewhere with a pulse like Toronto or Vancouver and you should be content with living in RR#5 Newfoundland or Jacksonville Florida for 1/100 of the price. Sorry guys, Life is too short to live in the burbs and the city comes with a price because everyone wants to live there (and the fact that eveyone wants to live there raises AND sustains prices). So, selling our house was the WORSE thing we ever did – once you are in the market, DO not leave it, hedge your bets if you must and move to a more affordable property in case things go south. Who cares if prices come down 20% when they already went up 30%? you need a place to live for heavens sake- real estate is cyclical it goes up, it goes down…follow history. However, the damage is done.. we know we screwed up with selling. However, I think we would be fools to buy in this sellers market..we have no choice but to wait for awhile…Like you, however, I just hope it is not the wrong choice. It is the supply/demand thing that speaks the most volumes for buying now – if there is no supply how can there be this monumental crash about to happen? A correction yes, but bollocks to a crash. Don’t look at a home as an investment, look at it as a place to live.”

badkitty added the next day, 13 Mar 2010 8:51 pm -

“I saw my house as an investment which is the dumbest mistake a person can make -then, because I saw the house as an investment, I acted out of fear and greed when I sold it (the second dumbest mistake a person can make). So, I alone have knocked myself out of the ability to ever own again in Vancouver.”

“I was in no situation to buy RE in 2005. Prices here have nowhere to go but down. There is no jealousy, hate or immaturity in this position – just financial discipline.”

Nero at vancouvercondo.info 11 Mar 2010 2:49 pm -

“I was in no situation to buy RE in 2005. I was a recent MBA grad and embarking on a career. Since then, my wife and I have accumulated about $100k while saving for a downpayment. Now, if there were any logic in the assumption that the Van RE market (prices) would be steady and increasing (or even flat), I would have bought already. The simple truth is that prices here have nowhere to go but down. The article (and so many others) support the argument with respect to Vancouver. So why should I enter a market that I know is stretched (thanks to a perfect storm of interest rates and psychology) and peaking? There is no jealousy, hate or immaturity in this process – just financial discipline.”

“I’ve been waiting in Vancouver since 2004 when prices looked too high. Today the wife circled a date on the calender, April 2011, suggesting my theories had had their time long enough. By that date next year we buy a place in Van or find another town where we can.”

The bubble market has greatly inconvenienced many regular citizens who, under normal circumstances, would have bought property at reasonable prices (even given that there’d be a Vancouver premium) and be getting on with their lives. Instead, they are ruminating about the RE market and some are even considering leaving town. These forces are not good for our community. -vreaa

jay at greaterfool.ca 11 Mar 2010 2:14 am“I’ve been waiting in Vancouver since 2004 when prices looked too high and I had just got married. Now two kids and 6 years later we have saved a lot but not enough… still renting. The wife circled a date on the calender today, April 2011, suggesting my theories had had their time long enough. By that date next year we buy a place in Van or find another town where we can…”

“I no longer care about ownership. I’ve given up on it entirely. I want to see the Vancouver RE market turn before all my friends leave the city. The attrition is getting worse… and they’re not wrong.”

Depletion of human capital: People leaving Vancouver, or avoiding settling in Vancouver, is an invisible yet profound cost of this boom. -vreaa

Absinthe at vancouvercondo.info 6 Mar 2010 12:36 am - “I no longer care about ownership. I’ve given up on it entirely – as I said, I am renting a house with a yard, and since I grew up in apartments, this is a step up and my kids have room. I’m not moving into a tiny space for the pleasure of property taxes and a deed. I want to see it [the Vancouver RE market] turn before all my friends leave the city. The attrition is getting worse and they’re not wrong. Truly, there’s no other market in Canada in which my husband and I couldn’t buy something similar to what we’re renting now. Now, we’re sticking to BC for the grandparents, who are more important than land any day. Rent is still an option. But man, I’m missing many people, these days.”
other ted at vancouvercondo.info 6 Mar 2010 1:59 am – “The only option for bears, according to the bulls, is to rent. How about moving all together? When this puppy blows it’s not just housing that will tank, but the entire fake economy. I live elsewhere but will buy with all the cash I am saving. Not sure if Vancouver will ever be home again though.”

“I know tons of people who want to move to BC but when they look at a) the available jobs and b) house prices, they laugh and go back home.”

!(EconomicsDegree) at vancouvercondo.info 1 Mar 2010 8:24 am“I know tons of people who want to move to BC but when they look at a) the available jobs and b) house prices, they laugh and go back home.”

“A local realtor passes and says: “Every time those cameras click real estate goes up $100″

Eric at greaterfool.ca 27 Feb 2010 bemoans the fact that fine weather for part of the Olympic Games may have given visitors an artificially rosy view of Vancouver -

“Instead of 4°C and raining sideways, we got the once-in-five-years treat of a sunny, warm February. I was really hoping for the rain, really and truly, because anything else was bound to add to the silliness that is Vancouver real estate. So, there I am watching a week of stunning sunrises from the Cambie bridge, surrounded by hundreds of visitors at 6am, who flocked up the span with cameras in hand. A local realtor passes and says: “Every time those cameras click real estate goes up $100″. Sigh. March Madness is around the corner. … And THEN the bloody cherry trees started blooming.”

“I recently went back to my first home in Mount Pleasant, when I had lived as an immigrant back in 1989. There has been a lot of changes to the neighborhood, and blocks where I don’t recognize where I am”

This response to Froogle Scott Chronicles Part 5 from space889 at vancouvercondo.info 26 Feb 2010 10:52 am -

“I had recently gone back to my first home in Mount Pleasant when I came as an immigrant back in 1989 and lived there for about 10 years. There has been a lot of changes to the neighborhood and blocks where I don’t recognize where I am. There have been large heritage style houses torn down and rebuilt as large townhouse complexes. However to me this is also progress. While people may be nostalgic about those cute character houses built pre-1930, or those cute charming wartime bungalows, the question I have is do they really think it’s a good idea to keep all those houses as they are, never renovate or rebuild them? I think we should preserve some heritage buildings but that doesn’t mean all new developments are bad. Some are, some aren’t. However to to me wishing things don’t change is even worse. Imagine for a minute, if Vancouver had somehow been frozen in time so that no existing house is torn down and no new big box houses were build in their palce since 1970. Every homeowner kept their houses in good condition without major renovations such the house is not recognizable. Do you really think that would make a better Vancouver than it is today? Is it really better to live in a 50 years well build and well maintained small house than to live in a well build new and likely larger building using all the advances we had in the last 50 year?”

RE Advertising Saturation – “Where are the ads for all of the other businesses in the area? The only ones that can afford most of the advertising are in the real-estate business.”

RE ad saturation is indicative over overheated markets and bubble tops. This anecdote from Alberta could just as easily describe Vancouver. -vreaa

Here’s popeye the sailor man at vancouvercondo.info 27 Feb 2010 1:33 pm -

“Yesterday I went to the local Safeway in Spruce Grove [Alberta], and as I enter the lobby there are 6 Magazines in the free bins about real estate or home-renos. I grab my cart, and at the front of the cart an Ad for a local realtor, I look at other people’s carts and they all have the same ad from one realtor. I get to the check-out and the lady in front of me passes me a divider and on it is advertising for two new high end housing developments, I get past that and get my slip and in the back I see ads and again 2 of the three ads are for a realtor. On the way home now fully aware of advertising I pass 8 for sale signs and 4 bus benches with real-estate advertising 2 mortgage broker signs (2%VRM) and 5 billboards for new developments. Stopped and got my mail and there was 3 postcards for just listed homes in the area, hanging on my door is the Grove examiner which has 20% news, 40% real-estate, 20% car ads, and 20% other ads. Is it any wonder we are real-estate junkies. Where are the ads for all of the other businesses in the area? The only ones that can afford most of the advertising are in the real-estate business.”

The Froogle Scott Chronicles: Mortgaging Our Souls In Paradise – Part 5: Raise or Raze

The apparent Vancouver RE ‘boom’ has been based on the spending of imagined wealth. This has involved individual and group self-deceit. As a society, we’ve pretended that local homes are worth twice what they were a handful of years ago, and acted as though they were worth well above twice their value as defined by usefulness. Banks, just as besotted by the game as the rest of us, have allowed some of us to borrow vast amounts of money and commit to ‘buying’ at these fairy-tale levels, and the rest of us have then acted as though these transactions are indicative of true values. Some owners, based on the consequent newly imagined values of their houses, have in turn borrowed money from the banks, and spent it. Sometimes on frivolous toys, but, at least as often, on renovations, or the construction or purchase of new properties. And thus the game has perpetuated itself. The spending both directly and indirectly attributable to this charade is likely ultimately immeasurable. It has been so vast as to allow our economy to seem to weather a devastating recession. But almost none of the imagined wealth or the consequent spending is the result of actual productive activity. It is all the result of the spending of very large amounts of borrowed money.  When the game ends, and when our shared understanding of the value of housing returns to levels closer to the historic norm, the debt accumulated through this process will remain. As Bob Dylan says: “Statues made of matchsticks crumble into one another.”
In his wonderful fifth episode, Froogle Scott shares with us his careful observations of the effects of the boom on the houses in his neighbourhood, and describes the process whereby “increasingly massive war chests of home equity” are used to renovate and construct. He coins the henceforth indispensable term ‘Boom Box’ to describe the utilitarian houses that have been built in Vancouver in recent years. He explores streets, houses, and memories. -vreaa

Part 5: Raise or Raze

Renovation and construction mania
I walk around our neighbourhood taking inventory: renovation, renovation, that house raised and a new foundation poured, that one with a second storey added, and there, a house demolished — razed with a “z” — and a new house built in its place. In the six and a half years that my wife and I have lived in the Grandview area of Vancouver, there have been a startling number of major renovations, and demolitions followed by new construction. Weekday mornings, on my ten-minute walk to the SkyTrain station at Commercial and Broadway, I pass through a two-and-a-half block stretch where one house is being raised, another across the street is demolished and a new house is being built, and around the corner two houses are being totally transformed by the addition of second storeys. It’s difficult to find a block that hasn’t had at least one major renovation or new house built in the last few years, and on a number of blocks there have been multiple projects. A renovation and construction mania has seized the neighbourhood, and it’s still ongoing.
.
An inventory
In February of 2010 I decide to do an inventory. My guidelines are simple. I walk all the blocks in the pocket between major streets where our house is located and count the number of major renovations and new houses that have completed since September of 2003, when we bought our house, or projects that are still ongoing. By major renovation I don’t mean new windows and doors, or a new paint job, or a new porch or new deck — and there are plenty of these more moderate renos in the neighbourhood, which I also count and include in a separate category. I mean houses completely gutted back to the studs, or exteriors completely stripped, or houses raised to allow a new full-height basement or ground level, or houses given a full second storey addition. Renovations that often render the original house unrecognizable. I also include obviously new, or newly renovated houses that probably were completed in the year or two before we bought. In other words, I’m doing a somewhat unscientific, anecdotal inventory of the effects of Vancouver’s eight-year real estate boom on one old, established East Side neighbourhood — a place typified for many years by hundred-year-old character houses, a number of them somewhat dilapidated, smaller, workers’ bungalows like the house that we bought, or Vancouver Specials, an earlier wave of replacement housing stock built from the mid 60s to the mid 80s.
.
The pre-boom neighbourhood
Here are two current photographs showing the housing stock that comprised close to one hundred percent of the neighbourhood pre-2002, the year the boom started. The first shot conveniently captures typical houses from four different eras of Vancouver residential architecture. From left to right: a hundred-year-old character house, a 1970s Vancouver Special, two 1950s stucco bungalows, and a 1920s or 1930s builder’s special, a stripped-down version of the Craftsman bungalow.
.

Four different eras of Vancouver residential architecture
.
….The second photograph neatly lines up houses from different periods of more recent Vancouver residential construction. On the left is a ‘late model’ Vancouver Special from perhaps the early or mid 1980s, when builders were dressing up the basic design with features like split roofs and upper storeys with offset sides, just before Vancouver City Hall put an end to the style’s proliferation. The other two houses you could call new-style Vancouver Specials, or monster houses (although I call them “mini monsters” because you can only get so big on a 33-foot lot), or the term I like best, from the general contractor who eventually completed our renovation: “builders’ boxes”. The house in the middle was probably built in the late 1980s, or early 1990s, when terracotta roof tiles, light yellow vinyl siding above a brick half-facade, and rows of narrow windows was a common look. The house on the right, although it looks similar to a number of houses built during the boom, was probably built in the mid 1990s. A clue that it pre-dates the boom by a few years is the colour — pink, which has now given way to beige as the one-colour-fits-all choice of discount spec builders — and the curved bay windows, with the stepped detailing beneath, which were common around 1994, if my research on RealtyLink is anything to go by. The trend over the past few years is boxed-out bay windows, with flat undersides that run straight back to the house wall.
.

Three eras of the Vancouver Special
.
The inventory results
Here are the results of my inventory. Over two days, I do a block-by-block count, take a few photos along the way, and quit when my feet get tired.
•    60 blocks (the pocket formed by Commercial Drive on the west, Nanaimo Street on the east, East 1st Avenue on the north, and East Broadway on the south)
•    130 new houses (prior demolitions assumed — or actually witnessed — although in a small number of cases a lot never before built on may have existed)
•    100 major renovations
•    78 minor renovations
•    An unknown number of ‘hidden renovations’ — all those shiny new kitchens and bathrooms, and mortgage-helping rental suites, that from the street give no indication of their presence (even when I try, unobtrusively, to look in people’s windows). I know of four major renos in the neighbourhood that fall into this category, and I record them, but undoubtedly many more occurred over the last eight years.
….I do the following calculation on adjusted figures: the total number of major renovations and new houses (204), divided by the number of blocks (51), divided by the duration so far of Vancouver’s real estate boom (8 years). I exclude partial blocks where I counted houses on the far sides of the main streets that form the boundaries of the pocket, and I adjust for double blocks (count 2), and blocks-and-a-half (count 1.5). The result is an average of 0.5 major renovations and new houses per block, per year — or one per block every two years. However, on the 23 most active blocks, each with an above average total number of projects (5 or more), the average is 0.77 per block, per year — or one per block every 16 months. One major renovation or new house per block every 16 months may not sound like a lot, but consider this. Using VanMap, the city’s web-based GIS, I count all the lots on every block in the pocket, and calculate an average of 23 lots per block. If the rate of change on the most active blocks were to continue unabated, the housing stock on these blocks would be completely renovated or replaced in 30 years. Based on the rate of change for all the blocks that I walked, the entire neighbourhood would be completely renovated or replaced in 46 years.
….Forty-six years ago was 1964, about a year before the earliest Vancouver Specials were built. From a statistical standpoint, if the rate of change in Grandview during the current real estate boom had been ongoing since 1964, the only house that would still exist in the first picture of older housing stock above, or be recognizable in its original form, would be the second one, the Vancouver Special. If we consider the elevated rate of change on the most active blocks during the boom, every house in the first picture would be gone, or renovated to the point of being unrecognizable. Grandview’s streets would be ruled by houses like those in the second picture above, and the newer ones in the photographs below.
….I’m sure there are people at City Hall and the Land Title Office with the appropriate databases who could do this number crunching and analysis much more efficiently and precisely, but my roughhewn results probably wouldn’t differ much from their more precise ones when it comes to an overarching statement. Grandview, and other Vancouver neighbourhoods currently experiencing rapid change, have been profoundly affected by the real estate boom.
.

My inventory map
.
You would recognize nothing
Imagine a residential street, say the one on which you grew up, with every last house renovated to the point of being unrecognizable, or demolished and replaced with a new house, in a 30-year period. Put another way, you could leave home at 18, and come back in early middle age, and not have the slightest inkling you were standing on the street where you grew up. You would recognize nothing. It’s possible this imagined scenario could become real in neighbourhoods all over Vancouver. The current rate of change strikes me as disorienting. I remember visiting Vancouver in the mid 90s while living elsewhere for a few years, and my disorientation coming across the Granville Street Bridge and seeing all the green glass Concord Pacific towers for the first time. Whoa! Where the hell did all those come from? As if a squadron of alien spaceships had set down on the north shore of False Creek.
….The rate of change in many parts of Vancouver in recent years doesn’t feel human scale, and I think if it continues unchecked for a generation, it would be a bad thing for the individual psyches, and collective psyche, of Vancouverites. You can’t be constantly destroying and remaking your home without it messing with your head. When you can’t count on recognizing things, can’t count on things as fundamental as one’s home and its various touchpoints remaining relatively reliable and stable, the danger is that you stop understanding that certain things have a value that isn’t solely calculated by the marketplace, that certain things, although they may seem mundane, are worth preserving. You may grow up as someone who feels his or her own personal history to be disposable. Why get overly attached to anything if it could be wiped off the face of the earth tomorrow?
.
The boom neighbourhood
Here’s a sample of renovated and new Grandview housing stock that in the last eight years has been replacing the old.
….The first shot is a row of four heritage-style duplexes — new houses designed to look like the more elegant of Grandview’s original single-family dwellings built a hundred years ago, and also designed to hide the fact that they’re front-and-back duplexes.  The fifth house in the row is an actual old house. City Hall encourages new house design that fits in with the existing streetscape. Given the rate of change suggested by my inventory, and the amount of demolition, on many blocks ‘existing streetscape’ is more of a conceptual notion than a reality. A friend of mine calls these “faux heritage houses.” I tend to agree. Are they really just builders’ boxes with an overlay of ‘character’? Somewhat cynical insta-heritage designed to entice the Anglo-Saxon demographic priced out of the West Side? They feel like a simulacrum of the old designed to make some of us feel better about the fact we’re progressively destroying that which is actually old.
.

Heritage-style duplexes: one old house, and four new houses designed to look old
.
….The second shot is a good example of the other type of new house built in Grandview during the boom — the naked builders’ box that does little to disguise its essential box-ness. Towering over the two remaining stucco bungalows, which have so far escaped the excavator’s jaws, it’s hard to argue that these new houses fit in with the existing streetscape. But once those last two survivors from the 1930s or 1940s are gone, and replaced by builders’ boxes, a new uniformity will be established. I’ve come up with another name for this style of house: boom box. Builders’ boxes built during the boom.
….Aesthetics is a personal matter. I find these boom boxes ugly, but others may not. Or aesthetics may not be a primary concern when selecting a house. And unlike the new-age heritage houses, I don’t detect any cynicism in the forthright utilitarianism of these structures. Much like the original Vancouver Specials, these houses maximize square footage for the price, and they work well for larger families. In Grandview, and East Vancouver in general, these are often longstanding Chinese-Canadian families with working class origins, often with three or even four generations living in one house (as distinct from the more recent, wealthier immigrants from China gravitating to the suburban municipality of Richmond). If you have an aged mother, and two or more adult children living with you, you need space.
.

East Vancouver boom boxes: builders’ boxes built during the boom
.
….And finally, a before-and-after shot of one of those renovations that completely transforms the original house.
.

Before and after
.
Where’s the money coming from?
The answer to this question is simple. For homeowners undertaking major renovations or demolishing and rebuilding: from the houses themselves. For developers and builders constructing spec houses (houses built with the speculation of finding a buyer): from the killing they made on the previous spec project. Once the real estate boom gets seriously underway in 2002, and prices keep cranking upward, the boom becomes self-sustaining to a certain degree. Owners of existing homes see their annual property assessment balloon, as if on steroids. After three or four years of these eye-popping increases they start to feel wealthy, and the bank agrees. Interest rates keep falling. In the aftermath of 9/11 rates fall to generational lows. In the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, interest rates hit all-time lows. Over the past eight years, cheap money, and then incredibly cheap money, drive house prices into completely new territory — surreal territory in Vancouver, where many homeowners sit on increasingly massive war chests of home equity. Yes, it’s paper equity. Yes, it would shrivel in the event of a price collapse. But it’s paper wealth that’s solid enough for the banks to approve large home equity lines of credit secured by the houses, like the one my wife and I are given when we renew our mortgage in September of 2006.
….For many Vancouver homeowners, armed with these HELOCs, or with construction loans, it’s been time to spend. For builders, developers, and the various construction trades the only problem is the inability to clone themselves so they can take the money and complete the projects twice as fast, the demand is so great. Renovations that completely transform modest houses, often coming close to doubling the square footage. Tear-downs to make way for ‘dream homes’. Tear-downs to free up land for spec building, which can be more lucrative than custom building for a specific client. There’s no mystery about what’s at the root of the recent dramatic changes in Grandview, and in many other Vancouver neighbourhoods. It’s money.
….And, in many cases, the changing demographics associated with the money. The willingness to spend it. The longstanding blue-collar inhabitants of Grandview, the retired Italians, and Portuguese, and Chinese, the widows, are sitting on the same home equity as the more recent, white-collar arrivals, but they aren’t spending it. In fact, they’ll be sitting on even larger cash mountains, because they paid off their modest homes years ago. One hundred percent ownership. But these older residents achieved that ownership through years of grinding it out in tough jobs, and through financial prudence — like my wife’s parents, living a few blocks away, working nights in various restaurant kitchens, and the early shift in a meat packing plant. Scrimping, saving, keeping a lid on unnecessary expenditures. These are people constitutionally averse to dropping five or ten grand on granite countertops, or stainless steel kitchen appliances. (Will events in the coming years cause all of us to become constitutionally averse?) They’ve lived in their houses for years. They’re used to them the way they are. They aren’t interested in the stress and upheaval of a major reno. They’ve got the equity, but they need it to backstop their retirements, and to pass on to their adult kids.
….It’s the more recently arrived inhabitants, with years of earning potential still ahead, who are spending. White-collar information professionals who work their days at computer keyboards are supplanting blue-collar workers who needed to move all day long, use all the muscles in their bodies to earn a living. A younger generation, with English as their first language, and their labour more valued by society. Some of the new arrivals are real estate refugees from the West Side, where they may have grown up, or where they might have been able to buy in previous decades, and perhaps still aspire to live one day, and where the average house price is currently 1.5 million dollars. The new influx has a different relation to money, and debt, and the rapidly changing built environment of the neighbourhood is a direct manifestation of that relation.
….I’m going to leave discussion of whether or not Grandview is gentrifying to a future episode. Certainly, some of the elements of gentrification appear to be in place, but a number of local subtleties prevent a simple answer to the question.
.
Shock and disorientation
Most of us have experienced the shock and disorientation of returning to a familiar place and finding it radically changed — never more so than if the familiar place is a house in which we grew up, and upon returning, anticipating that first sight, the feeling of reacquaintance, we find it gone. A bald, empty lot stares at us, or some new monstrosity. Something new always seems a monstrosity in our eyes. The alteration from the image in our mind, the feeling in our heart, at the very least feels like a breach of trust, and depending on how calamitous the circumstances, a violation, a kick that leaves a sick feeling in the gut. So imagine coming back to the familiar place and finding the entire block, every house, gone, or so changed that the block, the houses, might as well be gone. The one-time connection to you is certainly gone. Part of your personal history is effaced.
….There’s something very personal about demolishing a house, a home. It’s not the same as dynamiting an aging sports stadium. People can feel very strong connections to public structures, but they’re part of a communal connection. The spectacle of a half torn apart home is like a personal nakedness come upon, always a little unseemly. The emotions, the personal history, the tender or fraught relationships that the house has contained, and concealed, and protected from view, are rudely exposed. Like ghosts escaping into the ether, the long-hidden truths of past lives, having seeped into the walls over decades, now evaporate when exposed to air.
.
Some East Vancouver ghosts

We don’t demolish our house. We renovate it to a degree that would certainly fit with my definition of ‘major’, with a final phase of the renovation still in the future. In hindsight, the financial wisdom of our choice may be questionable. For perhaps a third more money than we’ll end up spending once all phases of the renovation are complete, we could have demolished the house and built a new one. One with a full-height ground level, more square footage on the main floor, and a second storey that might afford a view of the mountains, at least when the leaves are off the trees in winter. And an increase in market value that could very well surpass the extra outlay upfront, although this last point is debatable, and dependent on what happens to house values in the coming years. But these are things you learn with experience.
….What I do know is that some ghosts would have been lost forever if we’d brought in the excavator and the forty-foot dump trailer and smashed everything to kindling.
.
Homemade wine
The first ghost is a remnant from a wooden box of Zinfandel wine grapes — the box end with the producer’s colourful label. I find this board when I’m disassembling the framing of the bathroom in the old rental suite. Nailed between two studs, it’s serving as a piece of blocking for the shower plumbing. So along with their spouses, one or both of the Portuguese brothers, who put in the old suite in the 1980s, were probably makers of homemade wine. I know from my neighbour that the family used to run a bakery on nearby Nanaimo Street.
.

Wine box end
.
War bride?
The second ghost is fragile, a 3-inch by 4-inch scrap I find beneath attic insulation, a paper label clinging to the back of a board that along with a few other boards has been used to close off an attic hatch. The label says NOT WANTED, and a woman’s name is typed on it: Mrs. D.O. O’Malley. Although this ghost is the most recent I’ve encountered, it’s the oldest.
.

Not Wanted label
.
Some older readers may understand immediately the original purpose of this label, but it takes me a while to figure it out, and without Google, I might still be scratching my head. I assume “8/51” in the lower left corner is the date August 1951, which means the label comes from a time when immigrants arrived in Canada by ship, rather than aircraft. “Not Wanted” is short for “Not Wanted on the Voyage”, a designation given to things like steamer trunks and wooden crates that traveled in a ship’s hold because the passengers didn’t need them during their time at sea. Googling key parts of the address in the lower right corner — Canadian Civilian Repatriation Section, Sackville House, London, W.1 — unpacks the rest of the story.
….The Civilian Repatriation Section was part of the Canadian Wives’ Bureau, a department of the Canadian military set up in England and Europe to transport war brides to Canada where they were reunited with the returned servicemen they’d married during the Second World War. So Mrs. D.O. O’Malley may have been a war bride , although 1951 is late for a Canadian war bride. Most traveled to Canada in 1946, the year after the war ended. But the fact that it’s a woman’s married name that appears by itself on the label certainly suggests a war bride. And our house, a modest bungalow built in a working class part of town in 1946, certainly fits well with the theory of O’Malley the returning veteran, buying or building a new little house to bring his bride to. Somewhat inconclusive, but I’m happy to let elements of the mystery remain, at least for now.
.
Childhood home
The final ghost is flesh-and-blood, and on a bright summer day rings the doorbell. Peter Chang is about my age and he tells us that he was in the neighbourhood and our house is his childhood home. We invite him in and give him a tour, or more accurately, he gives us a tour of the ghost house that hovers in his memory, superimposed on the one we’re all standing in. Peter is surprised by the attractive Douglas fir floors, probably the best feature of the house, which we had refinished just before moving in. The brothers (I’m assuming it was them) had previously butchered them, a do-it-yourself attempt at refinishing that left waves, and divots, throughout. Some things really should be left to specialists. But Peter had not even been aware that there were original fir floors. When his parents bought the house in the late 1950s, the wood had been entirely covered with battleship linoleum, and it stayed that way throughout his childhood and teen years.
….We spend an interesting hour listening to Peter’s details about the house and his family. They were the first Chinese family on the block. His father was no longer alive, and we get the sense he may have died prematurely. At a certain point Peter and his family had to ask the neighbours to stop giving his father bottles of their homemade wine. As I’d suspected, there was previously a set of stairs to the lower level, in the back corner of the house where there’s now a narrow bedroom on the main floor, and the laundry room directly beneath. As part of putting in the rental suite, the brothers obviously removed the stairs, and closed the opening, gaining a small room on each floor in the process. Peter and his brother used to go down this U-shaped stairway to the partially finished basement, where they spent hours with their chemistry sets. Until Peter mentions it, I’d totally forgotten about those childhood chemistry sets. The concrete front steps on the house were put in by Peter’s parents when the old wooden ones started to rot and became unsafe. The bright red that peeks through several layers of peeling and flaking grey paint is the original colour that the stairs were painted.
….We get Peter’s contact information. He tells us he has quite a few photographs we might find interesting. We intend to get in touch, although we haven’t yet. Peter’s visit is prior to our renovation, so if he comes back for another look, he’s going to be surprised again. But if we had demolished Peter’s childhood home, would he have had any reason to ring our doorbell, or the heart to?
.

February 2010, Grandview
.
.

Next episode
Part 6: “Renovation Nervosa”
I don’t always walk the blocks of our neighbourhood purely in the spirit of unscientific inquiry, as I do in February of 2010, when I count all the renovations and new houses. In our first years in the neighbourhood, as it starts to transform before me, I often feel not exactly envy, but anxiety that other people are getting on with things and we aren’t.
.
Financial details
.
http://vreaa.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/fsc_chart_e03.png?w=509&h=348
.
From 2004 onward, all mortgage and LOC balances are as of 31 December of the year in question.
.
2003
Asking Price: $355,000
Sale Price: $355,000
Down payment: $88,750 (25%, ergo, no CMHC insurance, representing thousands of dollars of additional cost)
Mortgage (at purchase, Sep 2003): $266,250
Terms: 3 year fixed at 4.00%, 18 year amortization, bi-weekly payments
2003 Property Assessment (estimate of market value on July 1, 2002): $260,600
2004 Property Assessment (estimate of market value on July 1, 2003): $330,500
Equity based on assessment: $64,250
.
2004
Mortgage principal: $247,330
Terms: 3 year fixed at 4.00%, 18 year amortization, bi-weekly payments
2005 Property Assessment (estimate of market value on July 1, 2004): $420,000
Equity based on assessment: $172,670
.
2005
Mortgage principal: $201,829
Terms: 3 year fixed at 4.00%, 18 year amortization, bi-weekly payments
2006 Property Assessment (estimate of market value on July 1, 2005): $461,000
Equity based on assessment: $259,171
.
2006
Mortgage principal: $191,884
Terms: 5 year variable at Prime minus .75%, 25 year amortization, bi-weekly payments
HELOC balance: $4,291
HELOC interest rate: variable, at Prime.
2007 Property Assessment (estimate of market value on July 1, 2006): $570,000
Equity based on assessment: $373,825

“I just sold a $1Million+ home in Vancouver. If the value of your home goes through the roof, it only makes sense to sell. Move farther out and smaller and do it again. Do this twice and you can retire. We did.”

At what price points do some home-owners cash out because the money becomes too attractive, too life-changing, to ignore? -vreaa

This from comments by robercarter at CBC.ca 24 Feb 2010 11:00 pm and 11:08 pm -

“I just sold a $1Million+ home in Vancouver through ReMax and yes…the listings were minimal which was good for me. I doubt that this trend will continue but if it does….good luck everybody. I wouldn’t buy a house in Vancouver right now if I had a hundred million dollars. Far better places to invest right now. If you want to live in Vancouver, rent. I’ve heard time and time again that your house is your home, not an investment. This is surely warm & fuzzy but completely stupid. Your home (house) is the most expensive purchase of your lives. If its value goes through the roof it only makes sense to sell. Move farther out and smaller and do it again. Do this twice and you can retire. We did. Just take the emotion out of your home (house) and you can make more than almost any other investment. Just a thought…”

Olympic Visitor, Foreign Buyer? Part 1: “I was talking to a Swedish flight attendant at the Irish House last night. She was considering buying a condo in downtown Vancouver.”

Vancouver is looking glorious again today. Despite this, we don’t think there are going to be many Olympic visitors who decide to become foreign buyers of Vancouver RE. Our prices are simply too preposterously high, and those who live in other cities will be more aware of that than locals. We are, however, interested in any evidence that may prove us wrong. So far, we’ve had to be satisfied with the following insubstantial anecdotal snippet. Please send your stories, if there are any. -vreaa

This from vantownsucks at vancouvercondo.info 19 Feb 2010 10:02 am“I was talking to a Swedish flight attendant at the Irish House last night and, I’m not kidding, she was considering buying a condo in downtown Vancouver. She said she loves Vancouver. I was shocked I must say.”

More “Got Rich Off Vancouver Real Estate” stories – “Glad he’s done well and hasn’t changed his stripes. “Smarter” people would have sold it or developed it far earlier.”

rofina at RE Talks 3 Feb 2010 6:22 pm“My parents are a pretty typical Vancouver RE success story. They bought multiple properties at a reasonable time. Their principal residence has tripled in value in the last decade, this property alone makes them paper millionaires. All their rental condos are up a ridiculous amount, and all rent for cash-flow. Their outstanding mortgages are minimal, and really make little difference on the bottom line. The ironic part? They are very bullish people, to them Vancouver RE can do no harm. This is ironic for a few reasons. They purchased a NV property in 92 or 93, three years later they needed to sell it to raise capital for a new PR, they were unable to sell at a 20% discount.”

thinktom at RE Talks 3 Feb 2010 7:20 pm“I have a friend who paid $800k for a Point Grey Property and live in the crappy house for a while. Sold the lot, essentially, for $3.2M a few years later. That’s about the best one I can think of for a one-time transaction.”

RiskArb at RE Talks 3 Feb 2010 11:25 pm“Dumbest guy in our grad class in high-school…. we studied on exchange in France and he couldn’t find Vancouver on a map to show our French classmates. Also notorious cheap-ass who would scrounge for pennies underneath the football stands . Worked as a security guard back then and still does now. Anyways, he worked his butt off during school and put down ~$50,000 alongside his brother into an acreage in Surrey near/beside King George Hwy. Was a tear down home on agricultural land (ALR). This was during the NDP days with Glen Clark at the helm…. and Surrey was the sh*thole par excellence. Here’s basically what happened in the ensuing 7 years:
Year 0: ALR acreage with tear-down house. Sits vacant
Year 2: Removed from ALR and zoned for 2 single-family houses
Year 4: Rezoned from single-family towards higher density/multiplex (3 or 4 lot potential I think)
Year 7: Zoned commercial / strip mall
The guy and his brother just let it sit because they had no clue how to develop it and just wanted to hold it. As of 3 months ago they hadn’t sold it yet but had offers north of $3mm. I don’t know even think he ever formally listed it and could probably get more than that via a competitive process. So I think he’s gonna list it pretty soon….. and he told me that once he sells it, he’s finally gonna get a decent car – A VW Jetta. Glad he’s done well and hasn’t changed his stripes. “Smarter” people would have sold it or developed it far earlier.”

gpdu at RE Talks 4 Feb 2010 4:53 pm – “I met a couple in their seventies a couple years ago. The gentleman was a engineer at BC Hydro. He bought a 20 unit building in Van West, for $170,000 and is still holding it, in the 70′s. You figure how much it is worth now.”

RiskArb at RE Talks 6 Feb 2010 12:43 am – “I know one couple that started with 1 rental property investment about 17 years ago. Every few years they’d sell, pony up a bit more of their savings and move on to something bigger. Now they’re retired, have two 30 room apartments (those 4 level buildings that take up half a block)and act as the property managers doing the upkeep, maintenance, lawn etc.. They’ve got a funny Keyser Soze shtick going on whereby none of the tenants know they own the property… they’re just the friendly ‘fix-it’ people. And I know at least 3 other families, all educated immigrants working as accountants/engineers who did the whole “develop, live, flip” routine every 5-7 years…… but I don’t want to extol their savvy as 2 of them don’t pay nearly enough taxes.”

gpdu at RE Talks 6 Feb 2010 11:51 am“I think I can tell my story. I started by buying a duplex in Surrey in June 2002. There are four units in it. I sold it in 2006 after the price doubled, netting $250K. I paid off the mortgage on my primary residence and sent my daughter to private school. I bought almost every year after that, and now have a total of 30 units, in the Fraser Valley, Northeast BC, Alberta, and Texas. I never bought closer than Surrey because of the cash flow situation.”

Happy Smiling Buildings? – Subtle Signs Of A Distorted Vancouver RE Market In An Olympic Children’s Book

Imagine that you are an artist illustrating a children’s book. The story involves three magical, animated creatures adventuring around British Columbia in preparation for a big sporting event. You decide to portray some creatures and objects as having human emotions, by giving them smiley faces. The story is set in places of great natural beauty: the seas, the beaches, the forests, the slopes, the campgrounds. The creatures (a ‘sea-bear’, a ‘sasquatch’ and an ‘animal garden spirit’) are rooted in folklore that reveres nature. The year is 2010, the world is preoccupied with the environment. . It would be natural for you to animate the mountains, trees, oceans, islands… right? Well, yes, maybe you would, if all else were equal. If, however, you were living in a society obsessed with its profoundly over-inflated real estate market, you’d be moved to animate the buildings. Yes, the buildings. See below for the animated entity scorecard. Trees 1; Highrise Buildings 27. Subtle point? Perhaps. But a preposterously distorted real estate market does effect a society in innumerable subtle ways. -vreaa

From ‘Miga, Quatchi and/et Sumi’: ‘The Story of the Vancouver 2010 Mascots’ by MEOMI (Vicki Wong and Michael Murphy) -

Entities With Smiley Faces Scorecard:
Seaweed 7
Starfish 1
Octopus 1
Mushrooms 7
Bridges 2
Trees 1
Highrise Buildings 27

Excerpt – “The glass buildings of Vancouver shimmered with light…”

A Gentle Bull: “Maybe I’m just trying to reassure myself that it’s OK to own a very small piece of paradise, as I do.”

This from MikeOnTheMic at greaterfool.ca 23 Jan 2010 1:47 pm -

“As a life-long Vancouverite, I agree that RE prices here are not realistic. When would you all think that we started to exceed realistic prices? In the early 2000’s? Anyways, I’m hoping that we get back to realistic RE pricing at some point over the next few years. Maybe with what’s going on in the markets this past week we will see the start of a return to RE sanity soon.

On the other hand, I am a bit puzzled by the consistently pejorative terms and connotations I often read here [greaterfool.ca] when it comes to describing Vancouver and the implication that RE ownership here is crazy (current unrealistic prices notwithstanding). It was 15C and sunny here yesterday. The cherry blossoms are starting to come out, as they usually do on the West Coast at this time of the year. You can start your day-off driving 20 minutes out of town to go snowboarding all morning and then grab lunch on the way to the beach and windsurf / kitesurf all afternoon.

I have a neighbor who works in Korea full time so that his wife and kids can live here. He visits twice a year for a week at a time. He says that it is a dream for him to have his family live here because his kids’ prospects are so much better. This is not uncommon.

I grew up here and lived through the 1980’s influx of families from SE Asia, many of whom were able to purchase expensive RE. Having travelled to many places in Asia and experiencing first-hand the quality of life in that part of the world, it is no surprise to me that people are still flocking to our shores. As their economies improve, the upwardly mobile should increase in number and many will likely look to follow their emigrated friends and family.

I’ve lived on the East Coast through brutal winters and snow / ice storms through until May-June. A lot of people I knew out there were either dreaming about or planning to move out West at some point.

I’ve had friends visit from Europe who can’t believe the relatively low cost of living here when it comes to basic things like groceries, gas, utilities, etc…

Some posters here have compared Vancouver / Victoria lifestyle / RE / economic issues with those in the SF Bay area – fair enough – but we’ve got free health care and less random crime (OK – crime in Vancouver is a problem, but have you been to Oakland?).

Aside from stupid RE prices right now, I guess one other downside is the earthquake risk here, but if anyone is really worried about that, you could always bury a school bus and use it as an underground bünkerhaus. Not much of a view, but you might get some geothermal heat for free :)

Maybe I’m just trying to reassure myself that it’s OK to own a very small piece of paradise here, as I do. I agree that there is a huge need for folks to ponder the emotion that colours these considerations. Thanks to your advice Garth, I’ll try to ensure that my RE risk is not at foolish levels. Maybe I’m just a local guy who loves living here and thinks that the place gets a bit of a raw deal on this blog, all b/c RE is currently over-priced. But hey, don’t you know that it rains all the time in Vancouver? Who would want to live there anyway? Peace.”

“I live in Kitsilano. I earn around $50,000 a year. If working class means mechanics, mailmen, construction workers, then these people do live in Kits, Dunbar, West End and Pt Grey.”

As part of a discussion around who lives in the West-side of Vancouver [average SFH now over $1.5M], this from Stan at vancouvercondo.info 19 Jan 2010 4:10 pm and 3:21 pm -

“I live in Kitsilano. I earn around $50,000 a year. Almost all Canadians are Middle Class these days anyhow, but if working class means mechanics, mailmen, construction workers, then all of these people do live in Kits, Dunbar, West End and Pt Grey. So do students, retail workers, waiters…”

“I myself am willing to pay a premium to live in Vancouver, just as I would expect to pay a premium to live in a nice neighbourhood of any city. I can’t afford the current premium, but I still rent here. I love Vancouver and have lived here most of my life but kind of accept I may never be able to buy and might have to wait to inherit. I do think, while Vancouver isn’t perfect, it is a damn fine place to live and if I had money and wanted to live in a peaceful English-speaking country with good services, low crime and a relatively high standard of living, there really aren’t all that many other options. Vancouver isn’t everyone’s cup of tea but it is certainly attractive enough to be a lot of people’s cup of tea – enough to keep prices relatively high (unfortunately).”

“It is really hard to explain to people outside Vancouver how emotional the subject of Real Estate is here. More people have more riding on increased rises in this market than any other market in Canada.”

This from junius at greaterfool.ca 18 Jan 2010 6:07 pm -

“It is really hard to explain to people outside the Greater Vancouver area how emotional [the subject of Real Estate is here]. We have friends that moved to Toronto recently and they say even TO is nothing like Vancouver. I think the reason is really simple. More people here have more riding on increased rises in the market than any other market in Canada. There is nowhere else in Canada where more people have second or third investment properties and rely so heavily on the promise of RE to get them to early retirement.”

“Many of my clients with multiple real-estate properties plan to purchase additional properties with new money instead of investing in their retirement portfolio.”

What percentage of your net worth is in Vancouver Real Estate? For many buyers since 2000 that figure remains well over 100%. Even those who have owned for a longer period have a majority of their wealth in their home. The future financial health of Vancouverites is too dependent on RE. -vreaa

This from Real Estate Bear at greaterfool.ca 17 Jan 2010 11:22pm -

“I am a financial planner and sold my house November 2008. At first my wife was reluctant to sell but as the market began to tank she agreed that it was the right thing to do. Now that the market has recovered she is questioning our wisdom of having sold. Our son in law is a realtor and thinks we were crazy to have sold and truly believes that prices will continue to go up. I can not even discuss my views with him that real estate will correct without him laughing at me and calling me a fear monger. Many of my clients have way too much house compared to the size of their retirement portfolio and are relying on their real-estate to fund their retirement. Many also have multiple real-estate properties and plan to purchase additional properties with new money instead of investing in their retirement portfolio. When I talk to them about the real estate being in a bubble they look at me in disbelief. I get paid to give advice, and it troubles me when a significant portion of my client’s assets are subject to a severe correction potentially affecting their retirement, they do not take my advice.”

[This could be a Vancouver anecdote, but not necessarily so, so it is tagged as broadly Canadian unless we hear from its author].

Financial Advisor: “I have lost business because of my bearish position on the subject of Canadian real estate.”

These excerpts from an e-mail that a financial advisor from either Alberta or BC sent to Garth Turner, as quoted on greaterfool.ca 17 Jan 2010 -

“In my profession I have always fielded questions from anyone I talk to regarding whether or not real estate is a good investment. I think, lately, they are just asking to get affirmation instead of a real answer.  Regardless, my recent responses are being universally poorly received. I will be the first to acknowledge that anecdotal evidence isn’t, but I have come to feel from my experience with the Canadian populace that I am fighting a battle [using] common sense and losing. I have yet to see the light at the end of the tunnel. I fear it will come only once the dust settles. And then, as always, only for a time. Amusingly, I have even lost business because of my position on the subject of Canadian real estate. The moment I realized that my view was affecting my career came as a shock to me, so much so that for about three long seconds I considered that maybe it wasn’t in my best interest to tell the truth. Too bad for my pay-cheque that I consider my job to be that of providing impartial and unbiased (as much as humanly possible) investment advice that is in the client’s best interest. I have been bearish about real estate in Canada since my wife and I sold our townhouse in 2007. After three years of moving twice a year and watching our friends buy property literally like it’s going out of style, even my wife is asking the question, “What if we are wrong?”

In response to the above, junius comments 17 Jan 2010 9:42pm – “I know that feeling living here in Vancouver. Being a Real Estate Bear is a very dangerous position to take. It stresses friendships and family in ways few non-moral or political issues do.”

“Do Vancouverites Tend To Overvalue Shelter Because It Rains So Much?”

In the realm of psychological speculation, sure, but a wonderful thought nonetheless. At the very least, worth a chuckle. The exchange below appeared at vancouvercondo.info, after about one week of extremely heavy rain. -vreaa

buffates 15 Jan 2010 8:27 am“I’m not one to dwell on the weather…but honestly when you have rain like we’ve had over the past week it definitely contributes to the argument that Vancouver is by no means the end all be all. I keep having to remind myself that most of the world seeks, craves and wants live with sun most of the year. I have heard many people joking that they hope their house doesn’t float away. I definitely wouldn’t want to borrow 700K for a crappy house unless it was a tropical paradise. East Van does not qualify as a tropical paradise.”

World Class Soggy 15 Jan 2010 8:55 am“I wonder if the tendency of Vancouverites to overvalue housing has to do with the shitty winter weather? I also wonder if that’s why we have a problem with construction quality. So much of our construction seems like it was thrown up as quickly as possible to get out of the rain. “Just throw some stucco and a tarp on it, we’ll fix it later.”

Addendum: On the subject of rain, this from pricedoutfornow at vancouvercondo.info 15 Jan 2010 7:43 pm“Due to all this rain, my ceiling is leaking. I told the building manager today at 3pm and she’s arranged for someone to come over tomorrow at 9am to fix it. Was contemplating how if I owned, rather than rented this apartment, I’d be on the hook for paying to fix the leak. Or perhaps would have the headache of arguing it with the strata nazis, since the leak seems to be originating from the roof. None of that for me, I’ll be off to the gym tomorrow while the guy fixes it, and leave it to the landlord to cut him a cheque. Ha! Oh the joy of renting…”

Some Successful Olympic Rentals: “I know of a nice west end home around 4000 sqft that went for around $2000 per night for 35 nights.”

Some successful Olympic rentals; for the Olympic record. – vreaa

Invisiblehand at RE Talks 13 Jan 2010 1:20 pm“I know of a nice west end home around 4000 sqft that went for around $2000 per night for 35 nights.”

HabitualLurker at RE Talks 13 Jan 2010 3:27 pm“Back in September 2009 I was contemplating an offer – 1 month for $10K, for my furnished suite within walking distance to venues.  Typical rent for a suite like mine in this building is around $1200-1500/mo., unfurnished so I took the money and ran. 75% has been paid out already. 25% due @ noon on the day the tenant vacates. Even though some work is involved (I’m a bit OCD so I calculated it to be approx 100 hours of inconvenience), it still works out to $100/hr which I’ll take.”

habs100 at RE Talks 13 Jan 2010 3:57 pm“A friend rents out one bedroom condo in dt vancouver for two months for the Olympics. Less than 600 sqt. can’t remember the name of the building. Full furnished. I think the contract is $8,000 for the two month duration.”

househunting at RE Talks 13 Jan 2010 6:07 pm“I know of two people that own in Elan on Seymour St in downton that rented out their 2 bedrooms suites furnished and will net $14,000 each for the month of February. They went through a rental agency.”

Lady Luck at RE Talks 13 Jan 2010 6:46 pm“Whistler rents are huge. The highest one I know of is a 4 bed luxury home $160 000 for 2 weeks. The client is a movie star.”

mabajada at RE Talks 13 Jan 2010 7:46 pm“Collegue of mine just rented a 2BR+den for 11K in Yaletown this month. And a 6 BR House for 23K. Both for the month for company executives and staff.  It seems like alot of the people out their trying to rent were very amateurish.”

And an underwhelming data point -

registered at RE Talks 13 jan 2010 1:24 pm“A quick search on Expedia results in plenty of available flight seats for the Olympic period from LA, Toronto, London & New York at surprisingly low prices.”

UPDATE 15 Jan 2009 Posts at vancouvercondo.info

Olympigs 14 Jan 2010 10:49 am“A unit at 555 Jervis advertised in Craiglist for the past year has been asking from $3,500 to $5,000 and now $3,000. It was previously rented for a paltry $2,000 p.m.”


“Let’s end this debate on which city is better than which. It’s all about where you are in life and what you want.”

This from chumpdawg at vancouvercondo.info 11 Jan 2010 3:43 pm -

“I left here in 2005 to move to Dublin, thinking I would never come back. Thought Dublin was the best city ever… for about 1 year. I was never so happy as when I returned to Vancouver. Let’s end this debate on which city is better than which. It’s all about where you are in life and what you want. Right now I want a clean city, with access to nature, and North Van fits the bill. This market just keeps getting weirder and weirder….all I can do is sit on the sidelines and scratch my head.”

“My sister and brother left Vancouver about a decade ago after living here for several years. They both laugh at the suggestion of moving back here.”

This from taylor192 at vancouvercondo.info 11 Jan 2010 11:53 am-

“My sister and brother left Vancouver about a decade ago after living here for several years. They’ve both settled down in much cheaper cities (Alburquerque and Montreal) and laugh at the suggestion of moving back here. They would never sacrifice their lifestyles to pay the high costs of living in Vancouver, especially now that they have families. Lifestyle is more than beaches and mountains, especially for those with a family and little time to enjoy either.”

“The agent told my cousin she would try to squeeze the people that made the first offer by telling them there was another offer “out there”. The implication was clear, it must have been higher.”

Here’s a story of buyers who probably paid at least $30,000 more for a Yaletown condo than was  necessary to seal the deal. -vreaa

From Cynic at vancouvercondo.info 10 Jan 2010 9:46 pm -

“My cousin recently listed her apartment in Yaletown (Marinaside) for $739,000. She was offered $710,00 the first day and decided to think about it when the agent called with another offer, but only $685,000 this time. The agent told my cousin she would try to squeeze the people that made the first offer by telling them there was another offer “out there”. Of course, agents can’t divulge the offer but the implication was clear, it must have been higher. Long story short, the first buyers offered $740,000 and my cousin had a sale. She stills feel somewhat sleazy about it but, hey, that’s Vancouver.”

The Inconvenience Of Being Bearish – “The housing situation is bothering me. I’m going to need a bigger place. The wife is not thrilled about renting.”

rp on vancouvercondo.info 8 Jan 2010 4:20 am posted an honest review of their recent track record predicting various markets, and humbly gave themselves an ‘F’ for not having predicted the 2009 Vancouver RE market bounce. They continue -

“What can I say, I think people are nuts. So I haven’t been doing well recently. 2009 was an ego basher. But if there’s one thing I’ve learned it’s that fundamentals always assert themselves. I’m not in the market, and I’m not looking for short term gains. I have other things I’m doing. I’m simply trying to avoid being the sucker who gets wiped out. So far I’ve done ok. The housing situation is bothering me though. I’m going to need a bigger place. The wife is not thrilled about renting, and we probably won’t rent a house. That means cramped living, a new apartment, or moving away. All options are on the table, but I’m inclined to stay where we are and make room because the family arrangements are so good. I’m also sick of moving, although it has been hugely beneficial each and every time we’ve done it. Looking for advice: how practical is it for a 2 year old and a 6 month old to share a normal sized bedroom?” [Like the rest of rp's plan, it's very practical. -Ed.]

“We reminisce about when the neighbourhood was a neighbourhood and not just real estate being turned over. There is no way that, at current market valuations, any of us could buy back in.”

This from BeatBox at RE Talks 9 Jan 2010 2:12pm -

“I will likely never sell my Vancouver home. I am fortunate to have it and the view. My salary was never great but when I picked it up single income working professional families could afford to buy a home in a desirable neighbourhood. My longtime neighbours are chefs, bus drivers, a teacher/cop couple, and a small business owner with a shop nearby. The new neighbours are all first gen families with big business interests and investments. It’s been quite the change and there is no way that, at current market valuations, any of us could buy back in. One house is vacant and has been on and off the market with multiple agents over the past few years. We call it the “fishing lodge” as they keep raising their price and never sell… just fishing. The old timers, like me, sometimes reminisce about when the neighbourhood was a neighbourhood and not just real estate being turned over. Everything feels so much more temporary these days. … I am currently looking at some properties in Seattle for my next investment. There are some terrific bargains down there for under $300k that have 3 beds and 2 baths. Great rentals to families working in solid Forbes500 companies.”

Bull Hubris?… Or Appropriate Owner Confidence? – “My property got assessed 20% higher than last year! Wooooohooo! I’m going to refinance for another house while you cry-babies live in the dumpsters.”

Vancouver RE owners offer up few descriptive personal anecdotes on the sites that we monitor, despite the fact that we’d like to record such stories here. Very few people who are owners/investors/speculators seem to want to describe their situations. This contrasts with the fair number of renters/prospective_buyers who seem quite willing to share their metrics. Are the owners embarrassed by profits? Or shamed by debt? Or concerned about privacy? Or underrepresented on RE forums? … Owners do, however, quite readily offer up opinions and advice about the Vancouver RE market. The price levels of July 2008 have been regained [Jan 2010]. Owners have been voicing more and more confidence on RE forums. Any statements obviously have to be seen in the context of the kinds of exchanges that occur on such forums, as they are often part of playful or jibing banter, but they nonetheless do reflect an aspect of owner attitude. For the record, some such statements are archived and referenced below. If there are any owners who would like to share specific anonymous stories of their gains and holdings, or how RE has changed their lives, please e-mail them to us and we’ll headline them. -vreaa

sideliner at robchipman.net 4 Jan 2010 12:45 pm“The market has been unstoppable for over 8 years now.  Nothing will change.  That time frame shows you how strong the market is.  A minor pullback here or there, 5 or 10% means nothing.  The average person is priced out and always will be.”

EconomicBoom2010 at vancouvercondo.info 5 jan 2010 12:22 pm – “My property got assessed 20% higher than last year! Wooooohooo! I’m going to refinance for another house while you cry-babies live in the dumpsters.”

eyesthebye RE Talks 30 Dec 2009 9:23 am“Bears haven’t said ‘uncle’ yet so I’ll keep twisting the screws”. (With an end-of-post signature that reads): “the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices”. [This poster is one who has been generous about sharing specifics. They purchased a SFH in early 2009 which is now up 170K in market value (owner's estimate), for a 300% gain in equity in 11 months (consider the down-payment as initial equity).]

Johnny Horton RE Talks 1 Jan 2010 8:28 pm – (In reference to a non-owner) “…a severe case of Landless Serf Syndrome.” and 11:06 pm“Vancouver is the best place on Earth.” and 7 Jan 2010 11:44 am – “Don’t worry, when you pass the real estate course, you’ll be out of the in-laws basement in no time.”

mike at yattermatters.com 1 Jan 2010 10:56 pm“Do you bears ever get tired of being so disgustingly wrong? Give up already.”

jimtan RE Talks 1 Jan 2010 11:05 am“We have been over all this stuff time and again. And, the bears have been wrong. What’s the point of bringing it up again? You’ve got nothing new to add.”

Vancouver Rocks at greaterfool.ca 4 Jan 2010 3:50 pm – “Just a history lesson for all the young’uns – prices may rise, and dip, but in Vancouver they maintain their trajectory ever upwards.”

VanLoverBoy at vancouvercondo.info 7 Jan 2010 3:10 pm and 3:56 pm - “I’ve got a word of advice for you: M_O_V_E”… “I’m sure from your cheery disposition you’ve got to be one of the renters who has missed the boat. Too bad. Go start out somewhere better, like Africa, MiddleEast or one of those other notasgoodasvancouvermiddleofbumf—nowhere places you’re in love with.”

silverman at RE Talks 4 Jan 2010 1:30 pm (in response to a post from ‘dot com refugee’ that “We have seen that RE bubbles pop on their own, even with low interest rates. Please see Vegas, San Fran, NYC, Arizona, Miami, Dubai, London, etc etc etc etc etc.”) – “You forgot Istanbul and Timbuctu… Please see B.C.

Steinbock at RE Talks 6 Jan 2010 10:25 pm“Bears are only good at crapping in the wrong spots. Hence the smell in some basements.”

Lastly, these two very trollish and vitriolic posts from someone who calls himself ‘richasian’ (and who is quite probably neither rich nor asian) on vancouvercondo.info 2 Jan 2010 at 2:54 pm and 6:04 pm - “Happy new year you scum sucking renters!!!!!!! I hope 2010 brings continued misery as you watch from the sidelines in your crappy rental! Maybe this year you’ll finally come to grips with your financial situation.” … “Put your fingers in your ears and say na na na na when everyone is saying that real estate only goes up. Continue to drown your sorrow in the pubs downtown you sick little losers. Meanwhile I cash your rent cheque and head to Vegas for some gambling. It’s fun being a winner. How is it being a loser… bears?”

“The benefits of renting: If I bought the place I’m living in, my kids would be on the own for university, I would not go on vacation and I would not have any retirement.”

taylor192 at vancouvercondo.info 5 Jan 2010 10:12 am“We’re in a $458K condo and saving 30% by renting (compared to a 35/5 mortgage, or 40% on a 25/10 mortgage). The assessed value is easily $50-100K under current sales prices.”

VRENGD at vancouvercondo.info 6 Jan 2010 8:41am“The benefits of renting: I live on the water in false creek in a 1200 SF two bed two bath condo. My place costs me 15% of my AFTER TAX income. I take two $5000 vacations a year. I save $20,000 per year to send my kids to Harvard when they are of age. I still contribute to my retirement plan that will give my 70% of my income every year from retirement until death. If I bought the place I’m living in (I’m pre-approved), my kids would be on the own for university, I would not go on vacation and I would not have any retirement. Who is the sucker? Me or the no-life debt slaves who are stretched to the limit?”


“Sure I won’t (not can’t) buy a house at these prices, but my life is not defined by ownership or not.”

In response to an observation that renters are “pissed off, stressed out” waiting for a Vancouver RE crash,  logic at vancouvercondo.info 4 jan 2010 11:23 am, has this to say -

“I’m not stressed or pissed off. I rent a nice place for an affordable amount of money (20% of income), and save 1/3 of my income as well. Life here is good. I like skiing and hiking, and travel quite a bit too (2 trips to Europe this coming year). Sure I won’t (not can’t) buy a house at these prices, but my life is not defined by ownership or not. If I can never buy here, that’s fine by me – I’ll just retire somewhere warmer (although in 30 years it may well be warmer HERE)- which I’ll probably want to do anyway, to be honest. Happy renter.”

“I know literally dozens of parents that have given between $50,000 and $250,000 to their kids so that they can buy their dream homes.”

Intergenerational Wealth Transfer has been an unquantifiable component of the RE bubble. Has this been happening at a greater pace and in larger amounts than at other times? Are parents more likely to gift large sums for down-payments during a Have future gifts been depleted by the boom, or are large amounts sitting waiting to continue to juice the market (with leverage of >10:1)? -vreaa. housing boom?

This from Joseph at greaterfool.ca 3 Jan 2009 11:10 am -

“The other thing which may taint “housing affordability” numbers in Canada is the role that parents are playing to facilitate the purchase of homes for their children. I know literally dozens of parents (immigrant families but not mine unfortunately) that have given between $50,000 and $250,000 to their kids so that they can buy their dream homes. One parent I know, an Italian immigrant who has worked as a plumber his whole life, purchased a home for each of his kids for their wedding present. Three of the four homes were purchased before home prices started their steep ascent in 2000. The last one he purchased was in 2005. He is still working, pushing age 70 in order to “take care of his own financial needs” now. So are these “housing affordability” numbers really relevant if you have these parents offsetting a huge portion of the debt costs up front… ?”

“When I grew up, Vancouver was just another city, beautiful, wonderful to live in. I would move back, but the costs are now prohibitive.”

During a bubble, people are distracted by the apparent positive effects of increasing property prices. Less apparent are the invisible negative social effects. How many people have left or avoided Vancouver because of the preposterous cost of owning? How many businesses have not set up in the region for the same reason?  I personally know of professionals who have visited looking at jobs here, but then decided against the move purely because of housing costs. -vreaa

This from Andy in a comment posted at VREAA 31 Dec 2009 10:52 am -

“When I grew up, Vancouver was just another city, beautiful, wonderful to live in. I would move back, but the costs are now prohibitive. I have family in West Vancouver and Point Grey, but it isn’t possible for me to move there, my daughter to attend university there, and for it all to happen. It is becoming hell for average people who don’t have money, who just want a home.”

Visual Anecdote: Artist Reece Terris’ “Another False Front”, and the Vancouver RE Bubble.

Artist Reece Terris has produced a very fine piece of art, The Western Front Front – Another False Front’, for Western Front Exhibitions and the ‘Vancouver 2010 Cultural Olympiad‘.  The work subversively comments on the Vancouver RE Bubble, and wittily uses Construction as its medium. The artist has added a large parapet and cornice to the façade of the Western Front Gallery in Vancouver. Description and discussion of the work is reproduced and linked below. We respect the obvious fact that the piece is open to many different interpretations. Here are some initial associations: False Front. Appearance Over Substance. Superficial. Artifice. Insincere. Without Real Substance. Overextended. Exaggerated. Overreaching. Showy. Boastful. Advertised Wealth. Pride Without Foundation. Ambitious. Obvious. Conformist. Frontier. Boomtown. Wannabe. Temporary. Shoddy. Transitory. Veneer. Hollow.       Impressive!      Thank you, Reece Terris. -vreaa

This from vancouver2010.com, the official games website (screencapture: here) -

“The Western Front, one of Canada’s longest running artist-run arts centres, is located in Vancouver’s Mount Pleasant neighbourhood. In an architectural intervention, artist Reece Terris constructs a temporary false front on top of the centre’s already existing false front. This work is in keeping with the idea of architecture as an expression of perceived wealth and culture, and it emphasizes Vancouver’s long-running upswing in the real-estate market and subsequent boom economy.”

This from Reece Terris’ own site, reaceterris.com (sceencaptures: description & installation) -

“The Western Front Front, (Another False Front).

This work is under construction at the Western Front Gallery, Opens December 5, 2009.
The proposed work is an architectural intervention where an adaptation of the existing western false front (or commercial false front) is added to in order to emphasize Vancouver’s long running upswing in the real estate market and subsequent boom economy.
Historically, “the false front commercial building type is seen as a building of the urban pioneer west; a boomtown street lined with false front buildings created visual continuity and an urban atmosphere lending a grander, larger-than-life appearance to the primitive cabins. False fronts crowded together along business streets gave frontier camps a visual sense of security, reinforcing the logical notion of Main Street as a tangible link to civilization. The goal of the western false front design was to produce a building of visual quality that approximated the kinds of buildings being constructed in the more established cities”.
In keeping with the idea of architectural form as an expression of the perception of wealth and culture; I am proposing to construct a temporary false front on top of the already existing false front. The new false front will be one and a half times larger than the original false front and project out over the sidewalk at a slight angle.
Quote from: Dale Heckendorn, “New architectural styles / types added to the lexicon,” Historical & Architectural Survey Newsletter, October 2005 – number 10.”

This from Western Front Gallery at front.bc.ca -

“Western Front Exhibitions is pleased to present The Western Front Front – Another False Front by Vancouver-based artist Reece Terris. This public art project is commissioned by Western Front Exhibitions and presented with the Vancouver 2010 Cultural Olympiad.

The Western Front Front – Another False Front is an architectural intervention constructed on the exterior of the Western Front building. Terris’s addition consists of a new, larger façade, including parapet and cornice. Exaggerating its formal elements, the structure has been built at one-and-a-half times scale, and installed on top of the existing façade at a slight angle.

Historically, wooden false fronts were ornamental structures erected on the front of goldrush-era buildings to make hastily built boomtowns appear more impressive. This created the illusion of larger, more important buildings mimicking those built of cast iron or brick in more established cities. Symbolizing the pioneering Western town, the false front is both synonymous with the artificial display of wealth as well as the rapid boom-and-bust expansions of early mining, railroad and forestry communities.

One of a handful of wood-frame buildings still standing in Vancouver with a false front, the Western Front was constructed in the early 1900s as a lodge for the the Knights of Pythias, a fraternal order. In 1972, the building was purchased by a group of artists and converted into a live/work space. This affiliation grew into the Western Front Society, one of Canada’s longest-running artist-run centres.

Drawing from architectural history to contemporary discussions around façadism (the practice of demolishing a building while leaving its façade intact), Terris’ project juxtaposes bygone projections of culture and prosperity with references to the rapidly expanding economic cycles of modern-day Vancouver.”

Discussion of Reece Terris’ work at www.kostuikgallery.com.

“My co-worker bought recently with the full expectation he and his wife are taking a major hit in the near future, but with a second child on the way family outweighed finances.”

Regardless of where we are in the RE cycle, there will always be buyers and sellers motivated primarily by life circumstances. For some this results in serendipitously good timing, for others, bad. -vreaa

This from a poster at RE Talks 22 Dec 2009 -

“A co-worker bought recently with the full expectation he and his wife are taking a major hit in the near future, but with a second child on the way family outweighed finances.”

“All of the people I know ditched their starter homes, bought big new places and renovated”…”They are far more in debt today than when they started the property game.”

Superficially, one would imagine that those who purchased prior to 2000 would be in good shape with regards to equity-to-mortgage ratio. But many have used growing equity to move up, renovate, buy a second property, or spend more. This group are now substantially more exposed to the RE market than they would have been under normal RE market conditions. – vreaa

Here’s Emma at greaterfool.ca 22 Dec 2009 3:08 am -

“The middle-class pre-2000 buyers that I work with all jumped up in scale from their ‘starter home’ (which could have been paid off in a few years from now at these rates) to a McMansion. They used their equity from the first house to qualify for ever bigger mortgages and reno their new digs to their hearts’ content. They are far more in debt today than when they started the property game. In the last 5 years, the more you made, the deeper into debt you were allowed to go so I don’t think anyone is immune.”

And Dean also at greaterfool.ca 22 Dec 2009 9:42 am -

“I’ve seen the exact same thing. All of the people I know ditched their starter homes, bought big new places and renovated. I don’t know their finanancial situations, but I’d estimate they’re going from 100K debt to about 300k as a best case scenario. They stretch it out to 35 years, and the payment isn’t really much different than they had before at current rates. These are not first time buyers, kids, nor dummies. They’re not low income either. Buy now, pay later, with the current interest rates is a powerful attraction to everyone, myself included. But I’m still one of those pre-2000 purchasers happy in my “starter” home. Nearly debt free thanks to these wonderfully low rates.”

“I have friends in their mid 50’s to early 60’s who have stopped working. Cheap money creates a high level of complacency among existing home owners.”

Surging housing prices have led many homeowners to change their retirement plans. Whether they decrease their rate of savings, spend their savings, or retire early, it all adds up to a dangerously disproportionate reliance on future RE prices. -vreaa

Summed up well by Direct at greaterfool.ca 22 Dec 2009 1:44 am -

“Cheap money creates a high level of complacency among existing home owners. I have friends in their mid 50’s to early 60’s who have stopped working. These homeowners believe they will sell their houses in five years, make a killing, and move to a beach in Mexico. All their equity is embedded in their homes.”

“If RE prices drop 35% then this couple’s paper net worth will plummet from $354,000 to $102,000.”

What percentage of your net worth is in RE? What is your leverage to the RE market? An April 2009 VREAA attempt to poll Vancouverites in this regard was spectacularly unsuccessful. Does anybody have suggestions as to how to plumb available statistics to get an idea of the distribution of responses to those questions for the citizens of Vancouver? -vreaa

The Globe & Mail’s Financial Facelift 18 Dec 2009 describes a couple aged 36 & 39 from ‘central Canada’ who are admirably planning for their retirement and for their disabled daughter’s future. Here are some details of their finances -

Annual combined income: $66,670

Assets Total: $792,000
(House $250,000; Rental property $468,000; RRSPs $70,095; RESP $1,000; RDSP $3,517)

Liabilities Total: $438,000
(Mortgage on principal residence $70,000; mortgage on rental property $318,000; family loan $50,000)

vreaa comment:
Net worth is $354,000.
Total RE being carried is $718,000.
Leverage of net_worth to RE is >2:1.
If housing prices pullback by 15%, this couple will see their paper net_worth drop by >30%.
If RE prices drop 35% (the high end of David Rosenberg’s recent estimate) then this couple will see their paper net_worth plummet from $354,000 to $102,000.  For a couple with an annual gross income of $66K, this would be devastating.

“We could overextend ourselves, as many others have, and take on a ridiculously high mortgage, but we have decided not to.”

This from Let’sGetOurFactsStraight at vancouvercondo.info 14 Dec 2009 at 2:12 pm -

“My husband and I are both professionals, earn decent salaries, yet cannot afford a home in the Lower Mainland. I suppose we could overextend ourselves, as many others have, and take on a ridiculously high mortgage, but we have decided not to. We don’t want to put our family at risk, and we feel that the market is in a bubble because of easy credit made possible due to low interest rates and CMHC insurance.”

Your choice is to hustle, or to be stepped on by hustlers.

The most destructive social consequence of a large bubble is the misallocation of capital. Resources (money, effort, time) get directed away from goals that would truly build a society and into high risk speculation, into chasing the fast buck. Honest and prudent citizens make 0.4% on their Canada Savings Bonds. Condo flippers make more in a year than the average Canadian could save in a lifetime. Five years of this and a lawless, frontier quality creeps in to the prevailing ethos. Your choice is to hustle, or to be stepped on by hustlers. Blog discussions show that ‘legal tax evasion’ has become a priority for many regular citizens. It is also clear that some players in the housing boom have quite simply broken the law by not paying taxes. Undeclared income from tenants. Under the table cash payments for construction work. Flippers avoiding taxation by calling each flip a primary residence for someone in the family. When this lawlessness is rampant, honest citizens feel like schmucks for being honest. One hopes that the CRA has their best folks on this. The public coffers certainly could do with the revenue. More important, the society needs to be confident that honest and well directed efforts are those that are most valued and rewarded. -vreaa

This from LTR,FTW at greaterfool.ca 3 December 10:06 pm -

“I’ve lived in at least a half a dozen basement suites (”Mortgage Helpers”) that I know for sure that the Rent was not declared as income for the slum-lord. What about those self employed business owners that can write-off family meals, gas receipts etc as a business expense. It may not seem like much when taken in isolation but across the country it can sure add up.
Just look at grow-ops. You can’t tell me there is a demand for Hydroponic Tomatoes to justify thousands of dollars of equipment and supplies. And when the unemployed farmer gets caught, he gets a small fine and off he goes in his Hummer to the Cabin at the lake to enjoy all of his tax free gains.
As an hourly paid employee, there is not much I can claim back on my taxes. When I used to pull wrenches for a living, I couldn’t even write-off my tools !
It’s about time everyone paid their fair share of taxes and crime shouldn’t pay ….. but it does!”

[UPDATE: bestplaceonmeth at RE Talks 14 Dec 2009 6:13pm cites a craigslist rental ad where the bald-faced landlord is clearly not going to be declaring rent as income.]

And this post by instigator at RE Talks 14 Dec 9:29 pm exemplifies the thinking that leads to the perversion of society’s rules around fiscal honesty. -

“If you can’t beat them join them.. Even the authorities and government are dishonest, and even worse than the average joe”