“In my neighbourhood, for the last 3-4 years, the amount of housing which is unavailable due to renovation is about 10%”

Has the boom resulted in a larger ‘reservoir’ of housing that is off-market because of renos?  A very interesting idea from Drachen at vancouvercondo.info 23 Nov 2009 4:51 pm -

“I think part of what is supporting the market is that turnover of housing is so fast that a decent chunk of available housing is constantly in a state of renovation/pre-renovation/post-renovation. In my neighbourhood, for the last 3-4 years, the amount of housing which is unavailable due to renovation is about 10%. Right now the duplex next door is without tenants and awaiting planning approval, there’s another two in the same state within a block of me and a rental complex of 8-10 units that was bulldozed 2 1/2 years ago and has sat empty ever since. This is a consistent pattern throughout the neighbourhood and it’s been at about that level for years now. Because of the inflation in prices, owners aren’t in any rush and really don’t care much if the renovations take 2-3 years to complete because it just means the place will be worth more when they finally sell. There was a big rush of activity last year around this time when prices were falling though, which indicates to me that there will be a lot of properties listed in a relatively short time once a consistent downwards (or even neutral) trend emerges.”

“The real story is how many jobs in hi-tech did this real estate boom kill? How many startups never bothered?”

Home owners have experienced paper and emotional gains from rising RE prices, and the construction industry has obviously experienced a period of boom. What is less obvious is that, for many, real estate prices have made Vancouver a less attractive city in which to live and work. Business have left Vancouver, or avoided it in the first place. Recent job cuts have people talking about this effect -

This from other ted at vancouvercondo.info 9th Nov 2009 11:11 pm -

“Let’s face it Kodak Canada is what is left of Creo. The [major] job cuts were in 2002 and 2003. There is almost nothing left there now. I don’t think I know anyone left working there, maybe a few. It won’t make a difference. The real story is how many jobs in hi-tech did this real estate boom kill? How many startups never bothered? How many real jobs vanished or were never created? The damage is done. Seriously, crash or no crash I can’t see myself moving back to Vancouver.”

This from patriotzed at vancouvercondo.info 10th Nov 2009 4:49 am -

“I took a high-tech management program from SFU back in the late 80’s when it looked like Vancouver had a real future in high tech. Our focus companies were Glenayre and Creo. For a metro to be a growth centre for high tech, it must be attractive to professional families. Vancouver was in the 80’s and 90’s and that’s the major reason why capital and workers were attracted here for the many startups. Make the metro unattractive, and you kill high tech. Housing in Seattle is a good deal cheaper than in Vancouver, and it is and has always been a major high tech hub – why on earth would anyone locate here instead of there, except to employ a few peons who couldn’t get H1B’s? Inside Canada look at Ottawa, or Waterloo, which are even cheaper. If housing gets down to and stays at 80’s real prices, high tech may get going again, but it looks like we’ve slipped back 20 years or more.”

“Over 3 out of 4 open houses we’ve gone to in the past year have been vacant properties. Up until 2006 or so, the majority were occupied.”

This from Lost Soul at RE Talks on Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:39 am -

“Over 3 out of 4 open houses we’ve gone to in the past year have been vacant properties — I remember up until 2006 or so, the majority were occupied. Read into that what you will.”

Anecdotes From The Future – VANOC Knows How You’ll Feel Tomorrow

Okay, this may not be ENTIRELY relevant to Vancouver RE, but anybody who has been following the market will know how important the idea of the 2010 Winter Olympics have become regarding market sentiment and discussion. So perhaps you’ll forgive this somewhat extraordinary post. It does, however, deal with an issue that is of interest to archivists, namely the writing of ‘history’ via before-the-fact press releases. Ron Judd’s ‘Olympic Insider’ column at The Seattle Times, dated October 30, 2009 at 10:45 AM, reveals that VANOC distributed a lengthy press on the evening of October 29, 2009, that contained more detail than one would expect regarding an event that hadn’t yet happened. It was clearly set up for lazy newspeople to paste and cut and quote verbatim.

Here are some of the things VANOC predicted would happen the day after -

“A ceremonial party of First Nations chiefs paddled across the waters of Victoria’s Inner Harbour this morning towards the public welcoming ceremony cradling the flame from the dramatic jutting bow of a traditional canoe.”

“On shore, onlookers waved Canadian flags as they lined the harbourfront and sweeping green lawns of the British Columbia Parliament Buildings craning for their first look at the flame.” [I like the 'craning' bit - ed.]

“What a magical moment,” said John Furlong, VANOC’s Chief Executive Officer.”

“The Canadian prime minister and British Columbia Premier Gordon Campbell were among the dignitaries on hand for the flame’s arrival celebrated with a 50-member honour guard and a flyby of four CF-18 jets from the 409 Tactical Fighter Squadron streaking overhead in a classic box formation. The same jets soared overhead at approximately 10:40 am as VANOC revealed the identity of XXX as the first torchbearer to carry the flame in the Vancouver 2010 Olympic Torch Relay, presented by Coca-Cola and RBC and supported by the Government of Canada. As the audience cheered, he/she ran through the crowd proudly carrying the curved metre-long winter white torch, officially starting the 106-day relay’s 45,000-kilometre journey across Canada.”

It all makes it tempting to ask VANOC how we’ll all feel next year. And if they’ll please reveal what they know of where the RE market is heading.