Category Archives: 06. Held my Nose and Leapt

Stories about people buying out of ‘priced-out forever’ fears, spousal cajoling, or other pressures.

BC Premier: “I think the market’s good, it’s a buyers market. I want to make sure I get in before prices start to rise.”

“In Kelowna on Thursday, Clark said she has already been on the Internet looking for a home but would also like to hear from anyone in real estate about a home that requires low maintenance.
“I have a cat, but I won’t be bringing her. So no pets, no smoking and low maintenance,” she said.
The premier told reporters at her victory party on Wednesday night that she didn’t want to be “presumptuous” and start looking for a house while she was campaigning, but she’s getting serious now.
“I think the market’s good, it’s a buyers market. And you know the riding is really getting stoked again, so I want to make sure I get in before prices start to rise.”
– from The Times Colonist, 11 July 2013 [hat-tip kabloona]

Announcement:
With this brief (but sweet) post, we’ll be taking another break from our (admittedly very skeletal) posting habits of the past six weeks. We’ll be on hiatus for at the very least the rest of the summer. Refer to VCI and Whispers for ongoing Vancouver RE discussion. We hope to be back in full at some point. Enjoy the fine weather, and keep well, all. – vreaa
(PS: Nothing has changed regarding our overall bearish outlook on the Vancouver RE market.)

Vancouver Sun Profiles A First Time Buyer – “I just wanted to build equity and not pay rent.”

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“Myles Wilcott, a single, 31-year-old general manager at Canadian Linen & Uniform Service, is among those who have met new financial requirements in order to buy a condo. He paid $412,000 for 705-square feet two-level loft in a 16-year old building in the Gastown district of Vancouver.

Wilcott had been looking at condos throughout the winter, waiting to find what he was looking for at a price he could afford.

By this spring, he had almost enough in his registered retirement savings plan to meet the minimum down payment set by the federal government. He had sufficient income to cover the monthly payments, even though new federal regulations meant he would be paying hundreds of dollars more each month than he would have been required to pay before the rule changes.

He was not concerned about reports of record high prices and talk of a possible crash in the real estate market. “A lot of people talk about getting into the market to make a quick buck,“ Wilcott said. “I just wanted to build equity and not pay rent.” …

Mr. Wilcott, who graduated from Simon Fraser University in business and human resources, said in an interview he had thought about buying a home a few years ago but did not qualify for a mortgage that was big enough to buy what he wanted.

He turned his attention to improving his credit rating, pursuing his career and putting aside some savings. “I was able to climb the ladder enough to the point where I qualified for a [25-year] mortgage.”

Mr. Wilcott started the home-buying process in December. The first step was to arrange for pre-approval for a mortgage. He had an agent to help him search in earnest for what he wanted – a loft-style condo in the downtown area. He looked at 12 different condos before finding what he was looking for.

He put down the minimum five per cent, which was about what he had saved in his tax-free registered retirement savings plan. A federal program called the homebuyers plan allows purchasers to use their RRSP as long as the money is paid back within 15 years.

His mortgage payments of $1,900 will be considerably higher than the rent of $1,200 he was paying before he bought the condo.

However it was his outstanding debts — not the monthly payments — that almost tripped up his mortgage application. Arrangements were finally confirmed at an acceptable rate with Vancity Savings Credit Union.

The whole process was a bit more stressful than he anticipated. The most difficult aspect of the purchase was evaluating the conflicting points of view he received on home buying. “I got too many people involved … there was such a wide array of opinions — buy now, don’t buy now; wait five years, don’t wait; don’t go into that neighbourhood, go over there.”

But once he met the qualifications and found what he wanted, he was ready to close the deal.”

- image and text from ‘First-time homebuyers adjust to federal changes; For those who can afford it, home ownership still a viable option’, Robert Matas, Vancouver Sun, 15 March 2013 [hat-tip OH YAH]

“$700 per month more outlay for accomodation plus condo fees, taxes, legals, move etcetera, etcetera (you all know the drill) and no mention that all his savings were wiped out during the purchase. Live and learn. Got to get on that ladder even if it only leads to a periscope.”
Farmer, commenting on the above story, at VREAA 16 Mar 2013 3:22am

Agreed, we don’t think Myles really did the math on this.
He says “I just wanted to build equity and not pay rent”.
Even if he’s not fully conscious of it, he’s speculating on future RE price strength.
We’d bet the math shows that he wouldn’t “build equity” without that.
– vreaa

Vancouver Secretary’s Urgency To Buy Condo At 7.7x Annual Pre-Tax Income – “I’m worried about keeping pace. I’m worried that no matter how long I keep saving, the prices will keep climbing and I’m never going to be able to catch up.”

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[photo Rafal Gerszak, The Globe and Mail]

“Alice Soo is developing a case of spring fever for real estate.
In 2011, five years after graduating from university, she made a final payment to erase $25,000 in student loans. At the same time, she has been a disciplined saver, with $30,000 now socked away. Ms. Soo, a clinical secretary at Vancouver General Hospital, is eager to use it for a down payment on a condominium in the suburb of Burnaby, and soon.
Why the urgency? Condo prices in Greater Vancouver have slipped 3 per cent over the past year, but Ms. Soo believes the softness in the market won’t last. “I’m worried about keeping pace. I’m worried that no matter how long I keep saving, the prices will keep climbing and I’m never going to be able to catch up. That is my main concern.”
Such is the psychology of the first-time buyer in Vancouver, the country’s most expensive property market. Prices here have soared 24 per cent since the summer of 2009, according to the Teranet-National Bank house price index, and the price of a typical detached home is still about $900,000. But prices have cooled and sales activity is way down – there were nearly 30 per cent fewer transactions this February than a year earlier – so Ms. Soo’s concern about missing out may be unwarranted….
“For every first-time buyer, there’s an owner who`s looking to sell and trade up, and for every upgrade, there`s a retiree looking to cash out. The “trickle-up” effect can make the difference between hot and cold in the market.
This year, the big question is: Will the first-timers come back?”
For Ms. Soo, who is now renting the basement of her sister’s home, the first choice is to buy a Burnaby condo priced at roughly $300,000, preferably close to a SkyTrain rapid transit station. Given her modest annual pretax salary of $39,000, Ms. Soo is excited by the prospect of moving into her own place by the time she turns 30 this summer. But price remains the sticking point for buying a condo this spring. She and her agent, Eddy Shan of Homeland Realty, are finding that sellers aren’t budging much from their asking prices.”

– this anecdote from ‘Will nervous first-time buyers make this spring housing market bloom?’, Tara Perkins and Brent Jang, Globe and Mail, 9 Mar 2013 [hat-tip OH YAH]

We agree that this FTB’s “concern about missing out may be unwarranted”. She is still living in the not too distant past, and continues to suffer from the “buy now or be priced out forever” fever. It’d be interesting to know more about her knowledge of current market conditions, and to understand her sources of information.
The current market action is precisely what one would expect through a topping process: sales declining, prices sticky but beginning to give, buyers waiting and watching. Sales volumes always lead prices.
And there will always be some buyers, at any point in the descent, thinking they have “bought the dip”.
The most vulnerable owners in the coming downturn will be the over-leveraged, the latecomers, and the retirees with far too much RE for their life-stage. If Ms. Soo buys, she’d be both over-leveraged and a latecomer.
– vreaa

————————-

Some further excerpts of interest from the same article:

“Will McKitka, a real estate agent with Macdonald Realty, said the spotlight has turned on the slump in property sales in February, but prices haven’t collapsed. “People use the B-word, in terms of a housing bubble. Vancouver isn’t in one,” Mr. McKitka said. Monthly sales volumes are being crimped by stalemates over pricing, he noted.
Two of his clients watched negotiations fall apart last month, even though the asking and offering prices were tantalizingly close. “Not close enough,” he said. But Mr. McKitka insists that buying into the Vancouver area’s cooled-off housing market makes sense. Gone are the days of huge jumps in home values, but for those able to save for a down payment in 2013, it will be a better financial decision to own than rent, he argues.”

“It still seems that the much greater risk is that sales weaken further, not that they surprise to the high side,” BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a research note this week.
Prices remain stubbornly high in most urban markets. Fitch, a ratings agency, said this week that prices nationally are about 20 per cent too high. Such headlines add to the fear among first-time buyers that, even if they can afford to get into the market, now might not be the time.”

“Large marketing campaigns and incentives on the part of mortgage lenders are likely to play a significant role in driving the market this spring. “People buy payments, they don’t buy house prices,” says Toronto-based mortgage planner Calum Ross. “There is a huge psychological impact of five-year mortgage rates dropping below three per cent.” Mr. Ross adds that he’s now seeing “massive” amounts of marketing by mortgage lenders.”

“Phil Soper, CEO of real estate agency Royal LePage, said the slowdown is a good thing, because the market was too hot, but he thinks that the changes that Mr. Flaherty made in July went too far. “It pushed things for young people, for first-time buyers, to a place it didn’t need to be,” he said.
Now, he says, the impact of the change has largely been felt. “Young people have had eight months to either save up a larger down payment or look farther afield for a home,” he says. “As long as the cost of mortgage financing remains very low, we’re going to attract financially stable young people, first-time buyers, into the housing market. The desire to own one’s home hasn’t changed one bit.”

Will McKitka’s comment added to the ‘What Bubble?’ sidebar collection of bubble denier quotes.
We agree with Doug Porter’s observation that “surprises” are more likely to be to the downside.
– vreaa

Author Of ‘Real Estate Investing for Canadians for Dummies’ “jumped into the market 3 years ago with a 2 BR apartment in Mount Pleasant”; Reports Ownership Cheaper Than Renting; Leaves Out Math

“This columnist jumped into the property market three years ago with a two-bedroom apartment in Mount Pleasant. The mortgage payments at the time were on a par with where rent was heading, so the move made sense. Despite increases in strata fees and property taxes since, the move continues to make sense – perhaps more sense than ever.
Tallying mortgage interest, property taxes, strata fees and assessments, as well as home insurance paid in each of the past four years versus rent and home insurance paid in 2008 (the last full year in which rent was paid) shows that home ownership has steadily cut household expenses. Preliminary figures for 2012 indicate savings on housing costs of more than 20% versus 2008.
Poor affordability tends to give first-time buyers in Vancouver fewer options than those in other cities, but the pay-off – for those who can manage it – is significant.
So long as mortgage costs remain in check, the payoff seems set to continue, but low interest rates and increases in rental costs have so far put accounts in this buyer’s favour.
(The exit strategy and ultimate return on investment is a significant risk factor, of course, but we’ll leave that matter for another column.)”

– from ‘Rental market tight despite rise in Vancouver vacancies; apartment sales projected to hit record-breaking pace’, Peter Mitham, Business In Vancouver, 8 Jan 2013 (“Peter Mitham has written about British Columbia real estate since 1998 for Business in Vancouver and many regional, national and international publications. He is co-author of “Real Estate Investing for Canadians for Dummies”)
[hat-tip Sarbaz]

Priceless stuff. And that’s a major problem — no ‘price’ – no numbers, no math.
We’d love to see the details. The claim seems to be a stretch.
Just for a start, is this a comparable 2BR to the prior rental?

Also, interesting to note that an author of a RE investment text:
1. “jumped into” the property market, and
2. talks of the ‘return on investment’ – for his home!
– vreaa

Buy The Dip! – “Our families have been pressuring us to buy a place as the prices are coming down.”

“We got married 1.5 years ago. My husband doesn’t believe in buying a place, so currently, we are renting in downtown Vancouver. We have combined saving of $150,000 plus some assets in gold. We have a combined household income of $115,000. Initially, our goal was to save one of our salaries but realistically it hasn’t happened yet. We plan to start a family soon and will need a bigger place. Our families have been pressuring us to buy a place as the prices are coming down. Since both of us work in downtown Vancouver, we don’t want to move to suburbs like Surrey where houses are cheaper but has longer commute. Do you think prices in North Vancouver will come down in the near future?”
Jasmine, as relayed by Garth Turner, greaterfool.ca, 8 Jan 2013

There will be a subgroup of buyers who jump in at 10%-15% off, thinking we’ll have a re-run of the 2009 ‘dip and bounce’. They will be as severely punished for their purchase as any other buyers in the last 5 years.
Notice, too, that these advisors/buyers are very early ‘premature-bottom callers’.
– vreaa

REW’s ‘House Hunter Chronicles’ – “I had wanted my dream house right away. I wanted to skip the steps. But now I’m thinking short-term house and long-term house.”

A serialized story called ‘House Hunter Chronicles’ was posted through the summer at the website REW.ca. Here it is, for the record:

“Follow local house hunters as they experience the highs and lows of buying a home in the intense Vancouver real estate market. Elaine L. is the first to share her search with us. We’ll check in with her every couple of weeks to see how it’s going.”

Elaine L
Family size: Two — a single woman and her mom
Currently: Own a condo
Budget: $800,000 – $ 1.1 million
Neighbourhoods Collingwood, Fraserview, Renfrew, Renfrew Heights, Killarney
Looking for 2000 – 2500 sq. ft. newer detached house with rental suite down, move-in condition

1. Meet Elaine L. (June 16, 2012)

Elaine L. is only in her twenties, but she’s already a veteran in the Vancouver real estate game. She and her mom, Patty, sold the first condo they lived in back in 2004. They rented for a while, thinking Vancouver house prices would go down, but when that didn’t happen they bought their current condo in 2008.

Since then their condo has appreciated by $40,000, and its 880 square feet are starting to feel a bit cramped for the two of them and their dog. When one friend bought a rental property and another bought a house, Elaine was inspired to start house hunting again.

So she’s contacted the same Realtor they worked with before and asked her financial advisor what kind of price she can afford, and the house hunting is on! She hasn’t put her current home on the market yet, and there’s no deadline for buying, but she’s started doing a lot of online research and visiting open houses.

Elaine and Patty would like to stay in southeast Vancouver, where they are now. Finding the right neighbourhood involves researching crime and average income statistics and using Google Maps Live View to check out the look and feel.

Her ideal house is at least 2000 square feet with a mortgage helper in the basement, living area on the main floor and bedrooms upstairs. Elaine says that it’s mostly older houses that offer that layout, and they tend to be out of her price range. But more affordable Vancouver specials, both the classic ones and the newer versions, have suites on the main floor and living and sleeping areas up, all on the same floor.

Chinese traditions also play a part in her search for a good house; for instance, if you need to go down a couple of stairs to get to a house, it’s off the list.

Is she looking for a fixer-upper? Definitely not. “I can build IKEA furniture — that’s about it.”

Elaine credits her friends with keeping her on course. “My emotions get the best of me sometimes,” she says. “I look at a house and I don’t really like it, but I talk myself into it, and then I have to get my friends to talk me out of it.”

2. Elaine Loves and Lists (June 22, 2012)

Follow local house hunters as they experience the highs and lows of buying a home in the intense Vancouver real estate market. Elaine L. is the first to share her search with us. We’ll check in with her every couple of weeks to see how it’s going.

It was a bit like falling in love. The house ticked all of Elaine’s boxes: 2300 square feet, 3 bedrooms on the top floor with the kitchen and living area downstairs, and a 2 bedroom rental suite on the same floor that would cover $900 of the mortgage. It was built just last year, so it’s like new but without the HST. Her mom, Patty, liked it too.

Perfect.

But alas, her love was unrequited. When her Realtor inquired about putting in an offer subject to the sale of the condo the seller said, Don’t bother. “No one wants to sell to you if they have to wait for you,” Elaine says.

That’s why every day last week Elaine and her mom were hard at work — lugging a heavy elliptical trainer down to the storage locker, taking boxes of bric a brac over to a sister’s garage and removing all traces of Elaine’s Hello Kitty collection. They’re staging their condo, and by next week they hope to be able to get their Realtor in to take pictures and put the condo up for sale.

“I don’t want to go through that again,” says Elaine about having her subject-to-sale offer rejected. “We have some places where we can stay for a few months if we don’t find anything. And when we sell we’ll try to set a really late possession date.”

Meanwhile, “It’s a great feeling to be tidy. We’ve decluttered and depersonalized it to get an open, contemporary look. We had the floors redone with a dark laminate and it really opened up the space. We’ve cleaned all the walls. The place looks fantastic.

“A friend warned me not to fall in love with it and decide not to sell. But I want to live in a house.”

The house she fell in love with — actually a half-duplex — has been sold. But the good thing is that there are lots of similar places in the same neighbourhood, so Elaine’s optimistic that something with the same appealing layout will come up… after she’s sold the condo.

“It’s around $900,000, and at first I thought it was expensive for a half-duplex, but it feels just like a detached house. The two halves barely share a wall. Only the rental suites connect. I haven’t seen anything like it in Vancouver.”

Though Elaine was looking to buy a house in Vancouver, this place is in Burnaby, which hadn’t been on Elaine’s radar until a friend alerted her to the listing. It turns out, it’s just across the Burnaby border, only two minutes from where she is now, so she’d still be close to friends and family.

Of course, that’s if all this works out.

The upheaval is stressful. Elaine says “I’m always worrying. What if we sell this and don’t have another place to live? What if the market crashes and my house ends up not being worth what I paid for it?

“But then I remind myself that I’m not biting off more than I can chew. I’ll be living comfortably, even if the market crashes. I always plan for the worst case scenario, so I’m planning everything as if the suite isn’t rented. We’ll be okay.”

3: Keep it Clean (July 18, 2012)

Now comes the hard part: living in a home that has to be clean, shiny and spare at all times.

“Having to clean up after myself all the time is making me want to get it over with,” says House Hunter Elaine L. “I want someone to buy it so I can leave”

The condo she and her mom share has now been on the market since the beginning of July. After hauling out everything that wasn’t nailed down, and getting new flooring installed, she’s thrilled at how great the place looks. But it has to be kept that way.

“I gave my dog a haircut!”
The dog was the worst culprit in the keep-it-clean campaign. Elaine’s mom, Patty, had been spending part of every day vacuuming up the dog hairs that showed up particularly well against the dark wood of the floors — one of the new selling features of the condo.

A canine cropping took care of that problem. Now it’s a matter of always putting things away, dusting and doing the dishes.

All that upkeep is worth it. Their Realtor says that it shows really well, and he’s had favourable comments from people viewing it. Considering there are three other condos for sale in the same building, that’s hugely important. Elaine and Patty indulged in a little spying, going to the open house at one of the other condos to check out the competition, and they’re satisfied that their efforts have given them the upper hand.

The other side of feng shui
They’ve even had some serious interest. A mom and daughter came to look at the condo twice, but they rejected it because the mom said that the ensuite bathroom door facing the bed was bad feng shui. Elaine and Patty are Chinese too, and they have a few criteria based on feng shui principles. But not that one.

“The bed can be moved.” says Elaine. “We’ve lived here for four years and haven’t had bad luck!”

As her Realtor — and every Realtor the world over — says: It’s just a matter of finding the right person.” There are three showings coming up; three chances to find that right person. And with all those prospective buyers coming through her home, Elaine’s decided not to spend the week constantly keeping everything spotless. She’s going to Vegas instead. She’s got a phone with a US number, so anything that needs to be handled can be handled from there.

Let’s hope Elaine and Patty’s luck holds.

4: Elaine’s Las Vegas Luck (July 27, 2012)

Last time we talked to House Hunter Elaine L., she was off to Vegas with a group of friends. She was fed up with having to keep her condo spotless and ready to show at a moment’s notice, so she figured she couldn’t make a mess if she wasn’t there. Problem solved.

So there’s Elaine enjoying a delicious lunch in Sin City when her phone rings. It’s her Realtor. He’s got an offer. Can she look at it now?

They talk a bit and work out a counter offer and the Realtor sends it off. Lunch is interrupted several more times as offers and counter-offers fly back and forth. Finally, when Elaine is in the back of a cab on the way to an outlet mall, the Realtor calls with the final offer. He scans it to her phone and Elaine signs it, gets it witnessed, returns and continues to the mall… with considerably more to spend than she had when she set out.

Jackpot!

Digital transactions like this are more and more common with the advent of wi-fi, tablets and smartphones. So far there’s never been a problem. Digital signatures are informally accepted as valid, although the real estate industry has not yet had occasion to test them in court. The Realtor also took the contract to Elaine’s co-owner — her mom, Patty — for an ink-on-paper signature.

The condo was on the market for exactly two weeks before the offer, with one open house and 10 private viewings. The buyers saw it in one of the private viewings. The time on market is bang-on for Elaine’s Collingwood neighbourhood. Since May, the majority of comparable condos there have sold within 18 days.

Elaine says the condo had numerous advantages that helped it sell so quickly. First was all the work she and Patty put into it.

“We took so much time to clean it up perfectly,” she says. “We got rid of every trace of our everyday life. It was completely staged. I don’t think other people go to that extreme. We saw other places, and they weren’t as perfect as ours.”

It was also listed in the mid-400,000s — a price that appealed to people getting into the market. Elaine says she’s seen more expensive condos sit ounsold. “A friend of mine has a sub-penthouse that’s selling for $150,000 more than mine, and she’s had it on the market for a year now.”

On top of that, the location is perfect: it’s right by the SkyTrain and close to an elementary school.

The couple who bought have two young daughters. At 880 square feet, the condo will be a tight fit, but in the Vancouver market, condos have replaced fixer-upper detached houses as the first rung on the property ladder for first-time buyers and new Canadians.

The buyers’ bank sent an appraiser, the home inspector did a report and the subjects were removed a little over three weeks after listing. The completion date is August 23. That’s too soon to find a house and move in, so Elaine and Patty are staying with Elaine’s sister for a bit.

“It’s nice not to have a set date for leaving. We can look around until we find the right place. But it’s a motivation as well. We don’t want to impose on my sister for too long.”

Elaine’s excited and a little apprehensive now that the deed is done. “It’s kinda scary. I don’t know where I’m going to live, and I’m going to be taking on a big mortgage. Plus, I’m worried that the market might go down and I will have paid more than the house can sell for,” she says.

But, “Mom believes that in the Vancouver market things won’t go down that much unless something big happens.” So even if the market starts to dive, that’s not going to keep them from looking… or buying

The search is on in earnest now.

5: Know the Market (August 16, 2012)

“I had wanted my dream house right away. I wanted to skip the steps. But now I’m thinking short-term house and long-term house.”

Elaine L. is finding the search to buy a house in Vancouver more frustrating than she had expected, now that she’s in serious search mode. She and her mom, Patty, are camped out at her sister’s place, and they don’t want to be an imposition for too long. On top of that, Elaine was recently promoted at work so her days are super busy. Her evenings are almost entirely occupied with searching online for new listings and going out on viewings or drive-bys.

She’s no longer thinking about a duplex. “It doesn’t feel like the responsible thing to do. I think it’s better to buy a whole piece of land because that’s where the money is, that’s where the resale value is. It just seems more secure.”

But even though she can buy a house up to $1.1 million, she’s finding it tough to find her dream home in Canada’s priciest real estate market.

There was one perfect house made even better by the fact that it was priced in the $840s. She found the listing as soon as it was posted and jumped on it, but despite her quick action, the house was sold before she got to it.

Then there was new Vancouver special that looked more like a heritage house. Not only did it have a unique look, it had the layout she’s after. But by the time she found it, the owners had taken it off the market.

The capper was the three-storey house with an above-grade basement suite downstairs. It was quite new and priced at $799,000. It looked like a steal… until she found out it was a former grow-op.

Lesson learned.

If it sounds too good to be true, it is, and for Elaine that includes any house priced under $800,000. With all the research she does, she knows house prices in her chosen neighbourhoods inside out, and she’s learned to distrust any listing with a price that seems too low for the area.

So the dream house is just going to have to stay in the future. “For now we’re going to look for one with lots of rental income and save up for the one we ultimately want,” she says.

The decision has lightened her load at a highly stressful time. It’s broadened the range of acceptable houses. She can look at the new Vancouver specials that she used to reject because they always had a rental suite on the main floor, and she wanted the main floor and upstairs for herself.

Now that first-floor rental suite is a desirable feature. The income from that will help her get to her ultimate goal, to buy a house in Vancouver that’s exactly what she wants.

[As of 6 Oct 2012, no apparent further updates. -ed]

The final chapter sounds like a dangerous recipe: a rationale for overpaying for a property that is very suboptimal for the owner (a house with the (necessary) rental suite on the main floor!). If Elaine takes the plunge, she could be regretting the decision for a decade or two. – vreaa

“Now he’s gone and bought a place! Is the Anglo-American ownership obsession that strong that even when you know you shouldn’t be buying you do anyway?”

“My old boss recently got transferred to Toronto and has been providing a steady stream of Facebook updates regarding the RE market there – how he can’t believe he’s moving there at the peak of the bubble, how he’ll need to rob a bank, etc, and now he’s gone and bought a place! Is the Anglo-American ownership obsession that strong that even when you know you shouldn’t be buying you do anyway?”
CanuckDownUnder at VCI 6 Jul 2012 7:21pm

Yes, the ownership obsession is that strong.
Also, people have poor understanding of how they will behave under different circumstances.
Those who ‘know’ they’ll not buy end up buying; those who are certain they’ll “sit pat through the downturn” end up coming to market at 30%-off.
– vreaa