“In the last three years, at least six of my married friends have left town because of the cost of living here.”

tincup at VREAA  16 February 2011 at 7:22 pm
“I seen this more and more lately as well. In the last three years, at least six of my married friends have left town because of the cost of living here. Their professions are solid middle class; teachers, physiotherapists, plumbers, carpenters etc. all with young children. The new people we’ve met who’ve moved here in that time? Two couples where both husband and wife are specialist doctors. One couple moved back to Ontario after a year due to the ridiculous house prices. The other couple is staying because they are heavily into the outdoor lifestyle, but they live what would be considered an upper middle class lifestyle in the rest of the country.
Also, just the other day a friend who works as a manager in the federal government said they keep losing people here (mostly for jobs that pay $50k-$60k) because of the cost of living.
In Vancouver, a family living a middle class lifestyle means two wage earners, both with six figure incomes.”

Doctors Leaving Vancouver – “My friend, a surgeon at Children’s Hospital, said he couldn’t have the life he wanted in Vancouver because of the insane real estate prices here.”

WFT? at vancouvercondo.info February 15th, 2011 at 4:22 pm-
“Just got off the phone with a university friend of mine. He is a surgeon at Children’s Hospital. He took just took a job in Bellevue, Washington. Said he couldn’t have the life he wanted in Vancouver (private schools for kids, nice house with a yard in a good neighbourhood, vacations) because of the insane real estate prices here.
The pay is about the same as here but the real estate is way cheaper. He said that after all his hard work, he can “finally enjoy the good life”.
I asked him if he feels guilty about the government subsidizing his education only for him to leave the country. He said “a little but I’m not sacrificing my children’s future for it”.

pricedoutfornow at vancouvercondo.info February 15th, 2011 at 6:51 pm- “I’ve had two doctors move away on me in the last few years. And no wonder, how would you feel if you were a doctor, after years of studying, and all you can afford is some ugly 60 year old crack shack in East Van? YES!!! All those years of hard work REALLY paid off!”

Sure, we know that people come and go. We are, after all, nomads. But unnecessarily outrageous housing prices systematically disadvantage a city like ours. In addition to those who leave, there are those who don’t come here in the first place, because of the cost of housing. We personally know of such examples: people who travel here to interview for jobs, but then decline the offer after an incredulous drive-around with their spouse. Loss of human capital is initially relatively invisible, and its consequences easily hidden under the superficial and temporary apparent advantages of a housing boom. The RE market is sapping our communities, and interfering with almost all kinds of sustainable growth. Things will equilibrate eventually after the crash, but it will take time. – vreaa

“My parents sold their house for $1.1 million in Vancouver and moved to a lovely home in central B.C for $500,000. They pocketed nearly $600,000.”

anonymous, commenting in the Vancouver Sun 9 Feb 2011 2:11pm – “My parents sold their house for $1.1 million in Vancouver and moved to a lovely home -waterfront in central B.C for $500,000.They pocketed nearly $600,000.They have lots of cash to make 3 or 4 westjet trips to Vancouver ,Hawaii every year.The rest is invested.They love having some money and investments !”

“It’s scary how close we came to being trapped in a damn 5 percent down 35 year deal, almost sold our souls. I wanted what I felt I was entitled to.”

HADTOMOVETOTHEARCTIC at greaterfool.ca 22 Jan 2011 4:29 am – “Almost three years ago my then boyfriend now husband and I were pre-approved for $460,000.00. Shockingly since back then I was a nanny barely scraping by at $14.00 an hour, minimal savings and bad credit. The now husband had his you know what together and is practical and smart about money, 30 grand saved in the bank at the time, no debt and working 3 jobs to make more.
I jumped right on the HGTV porn loving, Sandra Rinomato fan club. I couldn’t wait to loose my property virginity. I gyrated in anticipation of an acre for the dog, nice kitchen or something Daddy could help us reno and somewhere between Roberts Creek to Halfmoon Bay, as long as it was on the Sunshine Coast. We scheduled open houses, looked at houses, and searched realtor.ca for hours in search of our entitled home. I even became addicted to house hunters and house hunters international. I envisioned us having the lifestyle all my friends seemed to have. Barbequing on a Weber grill, lounging on the new ginger jar patio furniture and a nice 52 inch TV for the next property virgins marathon. It’s scary how close we came to being trapped in a damn 5 percent down 35 year deal, almost sold our souls, or shall I say mine (Over and over again the husband said even though the bank says yes we really can’t afford a house) I wanted what I felt I was entitled to. I grew up on the North Shore in Vancouver, we always had nice things and all my friends were doing it, and even my mortgage broker friend had me convinced with her constant facebook updates.
And then the husband had a job offer, a professional job. No more UVIC bartending, no more teaching economics, no more odd jobs. It changed EVERYTHING. We now live in the Arctic in Cambridge Bay Nunavut. No more HGTV porn lovin’ for me. No House, BBQ, Furniture, Electronics or that acre backyard for Ralph to run around. Friends thought we were crazy, and still do. They keep telling me time is running out. A friend just bought a place in North Van, in Raven Woods out Deep Cove way….$370,000. For a one bedroom and den. Gross.
I stumbled upon [greaterfool.ca] one day and I finally got it. The husband thanks you. I keep spreading the gospel as best I can, but people just don’t get it. We’ll just hang tight up here in the miserable cold making money and saving it, while the Lower Methland slowly but surely falls apart.”

“The day I embraced the fact that I would be in the Lower Mainland for at least the next several years – and I realized that I was completely fine with the idea that I might rent that whole time – was a GREAT one.”

Royce McCutcheon [at VREAA 20 Jan 2011 11:44am] has some wise advice for those caught on the wrong side of the bubble – “Make a choice NOW. Don’t hedge. Don’t wait till the end of this year. Ask yourself: how much sleep have I lost over this issue? How many fights have I had with my partner? How much stress have I carried with me because of this? How much WORSE will my obsession with this issue be as I consider the implications of having an expanded family?
The day I embraced the fact that I would be in the Lower Mainland for at least the next several years – and I realized that I was completely fine with the idea that I might rent that whole time – was a GREAT one. It removed some seriously pointless baggage. Life can’t be lived waiting for things to happen – and while I truly believe things here are going to correct soon, I can’t tell for certain if we’ll see it start this Spring or a few years out – or if I’m flat out wrong. Do you want to worry about how this issue is going to affect your life for that long? A terrible thought.
So do the pro/con calculations with your partner TODAY, ruminate, and make a CHOICE. Choose to stay for a longer time line (like several years) or choose to move soon and start building your new life ASAP. You don’t have to carve it in stone, but at least put it on the wall with some fairly permanent ink. The funny thing is that there’s a decent chance you’ll be happier either way.
Make a call together and then stick with it.
And as a post-script: nothing says you can’t stay engaged on this issue from an intellectual standpoint. I’ve actually found it to be much more interesting once I stopped considering it so much vis-à-vis my own life.”

“I can tell she gets tense when I trot out the usual arguments about why it’s STILL a bad time to buy.”

tincup at VREAA 18 Jan 2011 7:43pm – “Much like all the people in the US who vowed they would move to Canada if Bush were elected for a second term, we have not followed through with our plan to move away from Vancouver if things didn’t start correcting by fall 2010. We simply renewed our plan…”if things haven’t turned around by fall 2011.” The difference now though is that due to a growing family we simply can’t stay in our current (cheap) place beyond that, and the S.O. is very anti-renting now due to the eccentricity of our current landlord. I can tell she gets tense when I trot out the usual arguments about why it’s STILL a bad time to buy. It’ll be an eventful 2011 for me, that’s for sure. If/when we buy, it won’t be at the bottom but hopefully it’ll be down enough that I won’t feel like all that patience was wasted. Vancouver really is different in the sense that it is taking forever for this correction to get going.”

Chin up; you are not alone. It’s bloody difficult to live through these times on the wrong side of the bubble. The market is a massive distraction, and it hinders regular folks who are simply trying to get on with their lives. It wastes time and misallocates resources. It causes people to leave or avoid living in our city. Affordable (not necessarily cheap, no one is expecting that) housing (to rent, and, yes, to own) is far, far better for a society. Economically, socially, psychologically. It’s going to take a while to resolve, but it will normalize. The more people that are scared off, the worse the comeuppance. Let’s hope sanity returns soon. -vreaa

UPDATE: tincup at VREAA 20 Jan 2010 1:37pm – “Just to mix things up even more though, yesterday I found out that my very solid, stable job is being relocated. Exactly where is uncertain at this point, but the options (not decided by me) range from pretty nice mountain town to god-aweful northern hole. If they decide on the latter, I’ll be looking for a new job. 2011 will be an interesting and stressful year.
Sure glad I don’t own right now…”

“My new path forward?? Here it is: Sell. Move back to the USA to the most expensive housing market in the country and still be able to buy a real house with actual quality and real architecture for 50% less than what sheet holes cost here.”

If this anecdote doesn’t make you sit up and think, nothing will. The Vancouver RE market is perversely distorted, and this is profoundly unhealthy for our society.  – vreaa

vanhattan at vancouvercondo.info December 28th, 2010 at 4:41 pm- “Here is my situation. I moved here in 2005. I could not find a ‘decent’ place to rent that would accept a very well behaved dog so we decided to buy a condo of a whopping 889 square feet. We hated the condo and paid more than 3x what our gorgeous home with 22 foot ceilings, 1/2 acre treed lot with more than 3x the square footage cost. (sold our 3,000 sf home for 330K, bought our 889 sf condo in Van for 377K). The purchase and shock of living in this shit hole almost cost me my marriage. F*ck, even the dog hated the place. So we sold 15 months later for 488K. Never saw an uneducated unemployed dog make a 100K+ in one year but that is what our dear Buster did as we would not have purchased except for him. Purchased another condo, this one a more reasonable 1050sf brand new condo with great views, great neighborhood. Still nowhere as nice as our old ‘home’ but at least manageable. Purchased for 700K. The latest comps put our place at 900K+.

Ok so here is our situation. Have a huge desire to get back into a real house again. Have been searching for over a year now. Have been looking at complete sheet boxes going for over 1.5 million that before I moved here I would NEVER have even considered even looking at much less buying and LIVING in. This is what we found one recent weekend: Falling down complete sheet boxes with more than 30+ people showing up in the first 10 minutes of an advertised open house. I am NOT racist in the least bit but have to say that 80% of the lookers were of Asian decent. Guess what???? The damn place sold for 100K over asking at 1.6M the very SAME day!!!!!!!!!

I got so depressed I went home almost in tears. My new path forward?? Here it is: Put the place on the market this spring for 200K under current valuations per a comparable sale one month ago. This is still 100K more than what we paid for it but being 200K below the most recent comp should sell in a weekend. Guess what. I am getting the F#%k out of here. We should be able to easily get out of here with 250K more in our pocket than when we arrived. I figured if we had rented the same places vs. buy we would have paid about $150K over the same period. So we will walk away from the best city on earth living essentially rent free with 100K to spare. What are we going to do next? Move back to the USA to the most expensive housing market in the country and still be able to buy a real house with actual quality and real architecture for 50% less than what sheet holes cost here. This metro area also actually has jobs that pay on average 3x what they pay here.

Bottom line: even though I have been very lucky with this real estate market in Vancouver, I can’t believe what places are still selling for. My opinion is that prices will continue to go up as long as the Asians keep moving here en mass buying any sheet hole for above asking price. My estimate is that China still has a couple of years left of their bubble before it bursts so Vancouver will probably still go up and up and up for another couple of years.

I am out of here. I want to stay, but simply cannot afford it. I am not bragging but I make 5x the average wage of the average resident and can’t for the life of me figure out how anyone makes it in this town.

So am I a bear? Am I a bull? Neither. Just a very discouraged Vancouver resident who simply cannot believe the prices of the crappy 2nd world real estate here. I simply cannot afford to live here and I make more than 200K/year!!!!!!!!! My quality of life is worse than when I made 65K/year before I moved here! Really folks. This city is insane. I am getting out. I have loved Canada and loved Vancouver, except for the housing situation. I will always have fond memories of the place and will leave being a Canadian citizen but have reluctantly thrown in the towel. I would much prefer to live in Canada than in the US as our values are much more Canadian but I also want a better quality of life.

So perhaps we will return but only if the real estate prices return to earth. From where I sit this is still a far way off.

Humbly, a soon to be former Vancouverite.”

TPFKAA – “Like many people I have been trying to save with my wife for the past four years, with the end goal of buying a house”

Just three or four short days ago ‘anonymous’, the poster now known as ‘The Poster Formerly Known As Anonymous’ (‘TPFKAA’), started treating us to anecdotes in the VREAA comment sections. We’ve already headlined one of their composite anecdotes [Spot The Speculators #22; 23 Dec 2010], and will headline others in the near future. And there will be even more to follow, we hope.
Here’s TPFKAA’s own story, edited and compiled from various posts, 22 to 24 Dec 2010, at VREAA:

“I have been a blog reader for the past few weeks – it has been eye-opening. I have since been collecting my own anecdotes. I have “vectored” in to this site to share my experiences, as limited as they are. I felt it my duty to share with others as they have generously shared – I owe a debt of enlightenment to the many who bothered to post real stories from their lives, in keeping with the spirit of this forum. I (have gone) a little evangelical on the postings volume, I must admit, and for this I apologise. I had a lot of anecdotes built up over the past month that I felt would be of interest. [No need for apologies, the anecdotes are appreciated. -ed.]

Like many people I have been trying to save with my wife for the past four years, with the end goal of buying a house – (we actually wanted a small condo or townhome but have her father living with us, and with two kids, there are very few that have enough bedrooms. One thing I don’t understand is why virtually no one builds four bedroom apartments or townhomes – they are surely more economical than SFHs?) We were despairing of ever being able to afford anything large enough. I was looking as far out as Mission (we work in Vancouver, rent in Burnaby). One day I just got sick of every minute of every day thinking about how I could spend less and save up fast enough to get in to the market, and did a little search on Google for “average Vancouver house price” to see what information I could uncover to get a glimpse at future house prices. I came across Vancouver Condo info’s rollercoaster, saw the charts, and in rapid succession hit VREAA and Garth Turner’s blog. Read every Froogle Scott episode (loved the writing and the detail) – and months of archived blogs and anecdotes. The wife says I am obsessed.
I think it’s fair to say my world shifted on its axis. Since then, I have been asking subtle questions of anyone I encounter (it’s surprisingly easy in Vancouver, in 2010, to ask highly personal questions like how much did you spend on your house! amazing…) and my findings astonished me. The one question that had been puzzling me was the HAM or Hot Asian Money hypothesis, that had all my family members believing prices will NEVER come down in Van. So I got my realtor landlord into a discussion and worked my way to asking how these investors get the money. He volunteered all of the above. I should mention that together with his brother, he also manages 19 properties for investor clients, taking care of renting them out, maintenance etc. (his brother does the legwork, gets a small rent based commission, and together they share the commission from the eventual sale of these investor properties.) All these investor clients are living in Van, and own one or more investment properties in addition to primary residence. Most of them bought in around ten years ago, however, so they truly are long term investors.

I will keep asking around for more information. As far as I see it, there are two possible outcomes to this real estate conundrum:
1) Chinese and other foreign investors keep coming with enough cash and overseas income to buy up all Westside and work their way east with tear-down and rebuilds, with no need of local jobs. Local wage earners unlucky enough to be left behind in the property market rent or leave. That would include us. A skeleton crew of baristas, mechanics, retail staff, Ferrari and Lamborghini salespeople and check out clerks live in rent assisted social housing islands in a sea of uber wealthy, world’s-elite-with-a-penchant-for-temperate rainforest-climate-owned mansions. What happens to the local economy next I am not smart enough to figure out.
OR:
2) Many of the overseas investors are overleveraged in a speculatory bubble, both in their home markets (esp. China) and here. Rising interest rates and falling prices sap their will to buy higher. Depending on events in China, prices either decline calamitously or grind down slowly as per Garth Turner until they rest somewhere slightly above where fundamentals would put them, so about 4.2 price to income ratio (Vancouver seems to always have been above fundamentals. (grow op income perhaps?)
People continue to buy in preference to renting because of the homeowner premium. (as a six year renter since I arrived in this god-forsaken city I am prepared to pay slightly over to not have to deal with the landlords here – words cannot describe how cheap they are and how much it annoys me to have to spend money and time on making repairs because they never show up and I worry that they will raise rent every time I make them fulfill their legal obligations and actually spend the money on repairing dripping taps, leaks, broken stairs, etc.)

So that’s my take. I will keep collecting information to help the blogosphere decide where this will end.

As a new-ish Vancouverite who has lived in Italy, Spain, UK, Finland, Japan, even Albania albeit briefly, and traveled in 28 more countries, I want to tell something to all of you: read my lips very carefully:
THIS – IS – NOT – THE – BEST – PLACE – ON – EARTH.
It’s just like every other place, ok in some respects, sucky in others, great in a few. Get your heads out of your asses. It’s almost embarrassing telling people from other parts of Canada where I live, as I inevitably get tarred with the same brush of arrogance.

In my case, housing in Vancouver wasn’t affordable 4 years ago, and it isn’t affordable now. If it were affordable I’d be mortgaged to the hilt just like everyone else, nervously biting my bull hooves hoping that all these have-nots posting away into the night are wrong. I didn’t try to outsmart the market. I came within 10,000 more saved dollars of pathetic little downpayment to springing for a 1950s bungalow on an easement in Surrey backing onto railway land that if BC rail decided it needed, would cut the corner of the house off. Well, the 10,000 wasn’t as big an obstacle as the wife’s reluctance towards the place.”

“I’m finishing some courses, and my wife and I are moving out East. No matter what happens, this is going to be a miserable city for everyone in the next few years.”

Patiently Waiting at vancouvercondo.info November 24th, 2010 at 12:10 pm- “No matter what happens, this is going to be a miserable city for everyone in the next few years. I’m finishing some courses, and my wife and I are moving out East somewhere. I’ll leave my hometown to the scumbags who ruined it, and watch their painful agony from a safe distance.”

“I bought a new single detached house in Markham, Ontario, after leaving Vancouver 2 months ago.”

LY at vancouvercondo.info 27 Sep 2010 2:43pm – “I bought a new single detached house 2900 sq ft lot size [likely larger? - ed.] in Markham, Toronto after leaving Vancouver 2 months ago. I know it is not the time to buy but my kids are growing up and my cash is just earning 1% in the bank. I wrote just to show how super-bubbly Vancouver housing price are compared to bubbly Toronto.
I bought the new house for $489,000 with builder absorbing the HST, plus $15,000 upgrade (granite, hardwood first/second floor) this month.
It is a 3 bedroom with den, 3 bath, with basement, single garage plus a yard. Location is around good top rank schools. Markham is like Richmond or Coquitlam in Vancouver.
I rented in Richmond BC for 5 years and I couldn’t buy any old single detached house of that lot size even in Coquitlam near the mall. I could have only bought a shoebox-size 10 years or older townhouse, or an overpriced condo. So I left Vancouver for Toronto and it was a good decision. If housing prices are to crash next year, Vancouver would be the epicenter of the that disaster.”

Pharmacist Zombie Realtor Survey (n=50) – “Each and every time I said to a stranger “Buy now!” they laughed at me.”

This picture and story from Sophie, on Garth Turner’s greaterfool.ca 30 Aug 2010 – “As a pharmacist who moved from East coast to West coast, [greaterfool.ca] is a therapy to all the in-laws, co-workers, etc who are constantly asking why I am not in the market yet! We were in Vancouver previously, but we see no future with our 150k total salary income to buy something normal, considering we are now [in our] 30′s and we don’t picture ourselves in a million dollar slum in East Van. As a part of my therapy, I participated to the zombie walk in Vancouver in mid-August. My partner and I were zombie realestate agents (that’s me in the picture). I could swear to you that each time I said to a stranger ”Buy now!” they all laughed at me (about 50 persons surveyed) . And they were not zombies.”

“One of their contemporaries just came out of retirement because they cannot sell their home.”

manna from heaven at vancouvercondo.info 29 Aug 2010 3:27 pm – “Just came back from a little visit with the folks. One of their contemporaries just came out of retirement (he had only retired two months), because they cannot sell their home. He is in his late 60’s, has had some recent health scares and is going back to a boss that fired him in the past.”

[One of the most urgent sources of inventory that the Vancouver market will have to face over the next five years is that from boomers selling homes that constitute their entire net-worth; their entire retirement prospects. - vreaa]

Stories Of People Avoiding Vancouver – “Vancouver is just too expensive for what it is.”

Architecture firm researcher Andy Yan’s Vancouver Sun quotes regarding young Vancouverites being repulsed by high RE prices [archived VREAA 23 Aug 2010] drew a series of anecdotes to bear out his opinion. All of the following are extracted from comments on that thread; they are headlined here because that’s what we do with relevant stories. -vreaa

MMM – “I recently lost a great young employee from my office here for the sole reason that he was offered a job in the US where he has since purchased a house for around one-fifth of the cost here (which includes not a rental suite but and entire separate rental HOUSE on the grounds). I didn’t believe that people would leave town for this reason myself either until I saw it first hand.”

keL – “I’m a late-twenties engineer (as is my spouse) and most of our friends in our personal and professional networks have a timeline for leaving Vancouver. We’ve already lost several close friends to Ontario, Alberta, the US and even China. A friend of ours who is a surgeon accepted a position in Regina instead of Vancouver citing the cost of living as the reason (specifically housing.. he said “I’m not buying a dump for 750K”).

ams – (33 years old, married, young son) “I have been a consultant for past several years in the software industry and do about 120K to 220K in business per year. I find it depressing that in Vancouver I can’t afford to buy a house. I put in the time doing some serious research and have seen that owning would be financial foolishness.”

ams (anecdote within anecdote) – “When I was renting in Kits, the old man across the street complained me that all his kids were in Eastern Canada because they could not afford to buy real estate in Vancouver.”

DM – “We are Vancouverites who left for 8 years and lived in Hong Kong and returned 2 years ago. Housing was expensive there too, but we were still able to buy a 1300 sq. foot flat with sea views and 25 minutes from the central business district. Even with the downpayment that we have, which is pretty significant, I can’t do the same here.”

Captain Jack – “I’m a professional making 150k a year. Live like a caged rat in a condo. RE has killed my love for the west coast. I’m outta here for good in the next 3 months.”

Makaya – (Moved here from Europe 4 yrs ago; 95K income; rents downtown) “After many discussions with my wife, we have finally decided to leave Vancouver. We have already started to look for jobs and once the right opportunity appears, we’ll be gone for good. Real Estate prices, along with general prices of goods and services here (why does everything has to be more expensive here?), are the things that turn us off, and that’s the reason why we are leaving . Vancouver is just too expensive for what it is.”

DB – “My wife and I, both early-career finance professionals, got sick of watching prices climb based on emotion, hype, and speculation and being pressured by peers to “buy before you miss the market — you don’t want to RENT forever, do you?” We packed up and left Vancouver 8 months ago.”

Bull Stories – “I am Up .wayyyyy up. Im in my early 40s have 3 places ,1 paid off Two with renters in.Even if the markets tank 50% I will still have $1.2m in collateral to go play with.”

We look hard for bull anecdotes*, really, we do… We’d post them if we found them, but there aren’t many new bull stories out there actually written down or otherwise stated. This is possibly simply the result of selection bias: perhaps the bears write and discuss, while the bulls get on with their lives, servicing their properties, spending paper profits, and so on. Regardless, we did come across two bull anecdotes in the Vancouver Sun comments section, 21 Aug 2010 -

turvey at 5:49pm – “I am Up .wayyyyy up.
Im in my early 40s have 3 places ,1 paid off Two with renters in.Even if the markets tank 50% I will still have $1.2m in collateral to go play with.I came here with 10 G 15 years ago.
Im retring at 45.I have had enough with working .Im blue coller non union.
I just bought here because its a bargain ! and its still a Bargain .
You will get nowhere in this life if you dont buy property.Thats a fact.
Enjoy your rental pad and keep paying losers like me !”

Zooper at 6:01pm – “I retired early as well and have done well in buying real estate. It’s funny how people don’t see it as such a good investment, especially if you are patient and view it long term. In a few years I bet people will think 400,000 for a 600 sq ft condo downtown was a bargain.”

[* Note that we are discussing bull anecdotes here (stories of actions), not the voicing of bullish opinion, which is very easy to find. -vreaa]

Andy Yan, Researcher with Architect Firm – “Vancouver is going through a very destructive real estate market. A lot of young Vancouverites are packing up to leave.”

The article ‘There are two million reasons for high prices in Vancouver’, Vancouver Sun, 21 Aug 2010, largely rehashes the very well known ‘overwhelming demand’ argument for ever increasing RE prices in our city. But kudos to the author, Don Cayo, nonetheless, for taking the trouble to look for some words of dissent. The article ends with a mix of anecdote and opinion from Andy Yan, a planner and researcher with Bing Thom Architects -

“Vancouver is going through a very destructive real estate market. High housing costs have a great way of killing innovation and creativity. Can the next Facebook or the next Apple computer really come from Vancouver if you’re too busy trying to pay the rent?” … A lot of young Vancouverites, especially those who have an artistic bent and who thrive on the energy of a vibrant city core, are packing up to leave for Montreal or Toronto simply because it’s cheaper to live there and pursue creative goals. … “That’s serious. You’ve got to think about what’s down the road. They’re not going to be here to support us, to pay for our social infrastructure and all of that.”

[We have long agreed. Speculative bubbles have many destructive social consequences. -vreaa]

Ex-Vancouver Mom – “It was a no brainer to give up one job, move to a small community, buy a house for $200k and spend more time with the kids.”

vernonmom at vancouversun.com 21 Aug 2010 10:20pm – “For around 1/2 million for a house in a not-great part of Greater Vancouver, and a 1 1/2 hour commute each day it was a no brainer to give up one job, move to a small community, buy a house for $200k and spend more time with the kids. However, for those who are unable to do this I feel for you, it’s just too much money.”

“Vancouver is in our blood. That doesn’t mean we’re incapable of seeing the insanity of pricing our real estate way ABOVE places like Hawaii, NY, etc. The hype is reprehensible. We see the HUGE amount of misallocated effort and money wrapped up in this market, and the hurt that’s coming down the road.”

The “if you complain so much about this place, why don’t you leave?” cries have reached another wave of high intensity on local RE blogs. The couple in this eloquent anecdote demonstrate how it is not inconsistent to both love Vancouver and, at the same time, harbour misgivings about the obscenely overvalued RE market & its deleterious effects on our society. -vreaa

Royce McCutcheon at vancouvercondo.info 20 Aug 2010 12:13 pm -
“My wife and I – both in health research – have decided to have a crack at setting up here because we felt it was somewhat worth taking a professional hit in order to 1) have closeness to people we care about and 2) to stay in Canada and, especially, in an area where we grew up. We’re here because we are Lower Mainlanders. I don’t mean that in the sense that we’re straight out of a leaky-shoebox-lovin’ condo ad, stacking fresh-cut flowers in the front basket of our mint Vespa scooter. I mean it in the sense that we are actually OF this place. For better or worse, this place will always be HOME. I learned how to ride a bike when I lived in family housing at UBC, I grew up listening to Robson & Larscheid call Canucks games, I’ve enjoyed everything from Expo 86 to the celebration of the recent hockey gold, and my heroes are people like Terry Fox and Doug Coupland. My wife has similar bona fides. We’ve spent time in dozens of countries between us and we return here because it is in our blood.
But even with us personally loving it here, we reserve the right to mock the “best place on earth” tag. Just because WE are acclimated to the craggy beaches, hefty rainfall, and lack of cultural and industrial infrastructure, doesn’t mean we’re incapable of seeing the insanity of pricing our real estate way ABOVE places like Hawaii, NY, etc. We know that outsiders who don’t have Vancouver in their blood are unlikely to feel like we do, so we think the hype is reprehensible. And even though we personally are not in the real estate market, we can’t simply ignore real estate in the Lower Mainland. Why? Because it’s clear that this incredibly delusional and out-of-whack market has the ability to impact the majority of people in this region (not just those who invested directly in real estate)! THAT is why we express anger and frustration and why we deride this place. The vitriol you’re witnessing towards Vancouver – and Lower Mainland real estate in particular – is a symptom of the Cassandra complex that’s developed in people in this city who can think rationally. We see the HUGE amount of misallocated effort and money wrapped up in this market and we see the hurt that’s coming down the road, yet we’re pretty much powerless to affect the situation. Some of us may personally benefit from a massive correction and are gleeful, sure. (There’s a very decent chance that my wife and I will benefit hugely in the time ahead – and even if a correction takes a long time, we love where we rent.) But if things get bad enough, many might also have to leave (for us, research funding has already started to be cut BEFORE a massive correction has occurred). And we take no pleasure in seeing people we care about – or the city we love – struggling to move forward.
So, regarding why we stay here even after ‘grass is greener’ comments, it comes down to simple personal math: [(Being ‘of’ the Lower Mainland) – (Poorer work circumstances)] > [Better working circumstances somewhere else]. Some days the equation flips. Once that happens enough times, we’re gone. Till then, most negative comments are just blowing off steam in an obviously frustrating situation.”

Confession and Prediction – “I am a realtor and ex-banker. I’ll go on record to say that this is just the beginning of a long awaited decline in our real estate market.”

carlk via comment on VREAA 8 Aug 2010 6:58am – “I’ll go on record to say that this is just the beginning of a long awaited decline in our real estate market which should have taken place in 2008 onwards but was resuscitated by record low lending rates as Canada’s economic “stimulus”. Personally, I am estimating 3-4 years of a declining market ahead. It is what it is and I have done what I can for my clients to forewarn them of this upcoming prolonged decline in my e-newsletters to them. I am a realtor and ex-banker for the record.”

“I’ve just sold my American Home of 19 years, and will rent for the next year or so until we move to BC.”

Contrarians would currently be selling Canada and buying the US. Here’s somebody who is almost doing the reverse (not exactly the reverse, because they’re waiting before they buy BC). – vreaa

Fiendish Thingy at greaterfool.ca 24 Jul 2010 1:18 am -

“I’ve just sold my American Home of 19 years (in Santa Cruz, CA , the 2nd least affordable community in the U.S. – 7.5 times avg. income IIRC), and will rent for the next year or so until we move to BC. We are sick of the corruption of both major parties, and look forward to living in a country where most of our tax dollars aren’t gobbled up by illegal wars (including torture and wiretaps), bank bailouts, and corporate welfare. We know Canada isn’t a Utopia, but it will be Heaven compared to the insanity going on the past 10 years.

We are already landed immigrants, and are just waiting for our daughter to graduate college, and for us to find jobs (in the health professions) before moving and becoming renters in the lower mainland.

In the meantime, our over $300k USD from the sale of our home will remain liquid and available for the day when Canadian RE becomes more reasonably priced. In a few years, we hope to pay cash for a home, and have no mortgage. We are completely debt-free and loving it!

As for those who hope to buy American, there are definitely good deals out there, but more may be on the way. There is a huge backlog of foreclosures, and isn’t there a huge wave of Alt-A (you pick payment/interest only) mortgages about to reset in late 2010? I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom in the U.S. yet…”

Small Town BC RE Tale – “My friends decided to hold off on selling their home to wait for the prices to go back up “in the spring, like they always do.” Hasn’t happened. They’re worried.” … “They say that now, they would not consider themselves middle-class anymore, that somewhere along the way, that’s been lost.”

bcgirl at greaterfool.ca 19 Jun 2010 9:09 am -

“I have a story about RE meltdown and the downturn of the wealth effect. My good friends, a couple who were my neighbours in the neighbourhood I sold out of in 2008, are experiencing the shift. They are in their early 60’s and might be considered geriatric by some. After I sold and moved to a nearby town here in the BC interior, they decided they would build a bigger and better home on a lot in the country. They bought the lot, built a rather deluxe workshop and went over the house plans with the builder. Meanwhile, RE prices in the old neighbourhood started to decline, but they decided to hold off on selling their home to wait for the prices to go back up “in the spring, like they always do.” Hasn’t happened, prices are down almost a third of what they were in 2008 in that little neighbourhood enclave. They cancelled with the builder and lost a sizable chunk of their deposit. The lot with the workshop is for sale and sitting on MLS. They won’t get the price they need to break even, and they pretty much know this but are hoping for a greater fool. Meanwhile, they are paying a mortgage for this lot, and really, this is becoming a struggle as they both work in their home-based business, and business is slow.

Back in 2008, the wealth effect from inflated RE values was running high. The party is definitely over in my old neighbourhood. On this blog [greaterfool.ca] we often discuss Vancouver, Calgary, and Toronto..the fact is RE is local and if you look to some of the smaller towns here in BC anyway, you’ll see advance evidence of the new reality. Since 2008, I’ve been renting in a new town with a lake and an artsy reputation…it’s different here according to the locals. Ummm…not likely .

As for my geriatric friends, they have only known RE appreciation with corrections from time to time. I’m pretty worried about them, and they’re worried too. They say that now, they would not consider themselves middle-class anymore…that somewhere along the way, that’s been lost.”

“We moved here a year and a half ago from London, UK, where we still own a 1-bed flat. For the same price, we can’t afford a comparable place here. We are thinking of going back to London where housing is more affordable.”

Another anecdote finding Vancouver overpriced compared with similar properties in London, UK. -vreaa

Sean at VREAA 31 May 2010 9:40 pm - “We just moved here from London a year and a half ago, where we still own a 1-bed flat. It’s worth £~310k , which is about $500,000 at today’s exchange rates. It has a huge garden and is in Highgate, a very nice area 20 minutes or less by tube to the city center. We can’t afford a comparable place here…. for half a mil, you’re not going to get anything like it. We are thinking of going back to London where housing is more affordable.”

“I am Canadian and my wife is British. I lived in Britain from 1997, until we returned to Vancouver in 2009. Despite the fact that we love it here, career-wise and economically it has been a disaster. No one I know is buying a house or even thinking about it – that’s for the crazy locals.”

northeast canuck at greaterfool.ca 22 May 2010 10:08 am -

“I am Canadian and my wife is British. I lived in Britain from 1997 – 2009 (the whole of my adult life and professional career). Never intended to stay so long, and we tried to come back to Canada for many years but there was always something in the way – usually the job situation. But, last summer we did it anyway. Despite the fact that we love it here, I think career-wise and economically it has been a disaster. I hate to admit that but it is true. We know quite a few expats who moved here around the same time – all professional with loads of experience and had highly paid, sometimes prestigious jobs in the UK, and all with lots of pounds in UK banks. No one is currently working in their chosen profession, all are either seriously underemployed and unemployed. Myself – I have been able to find work – in Japan. We have all found that Canadian companies are seriously reluctant to hire anyone with experience that is not Canadian. They won’t admit it, of course, and many probably don’t even realise they are doing it, but if you don’t fit the standard cookie-cutter job applicant mold here, you are going to struggle. We are all watching our life savings vanish before our eyes as the pound gets more and more feeble by the day.

Vancouver is a beautiful place, and wonderful to live in if you have lots of cash. Just make sure you have that cash in dollars, and a job arranged before you come.

Immigrants want to come here. But we’re not going to stay. Unlike many locals we are able to leave whenever we want and we will not accept a life of stacking shelves or driving a taxi. Oh, and no one I know is buying a house or even thinking about it – that’s for the crazy locals. I just hope that house prices crash faster than the pound.”

“My fiancé and I want to move from Europe to Vancouver at the end of the year and then buy a home there at the end of 2011 or 2012. It will depend on house prices and the strength of the pound as we’ll be selling a townhome in London to buy in Vancouver and are praying we can do it without a mortgage.”

This exchange between Garth Turner and a prospective Vancouverite contains two embedded anecdotes, and an opinion [greaterfool.ca, 22 May 2010] -

e-mailer: “My fiancé and I want to move from Europe to Vancouver at the end of the year and then buy a home there at the end of 2011 or 2012. It will depend on house prices and the strength of the pound as we’ll be selling a townhome in London to buy in Vancouver and are praying we can do it without a mortgage. What do you think the pound’s chances of returning to pre-2008 levels against the dollar in 2011 or 2012? In the meantime, my brother and his wife recently insisted on buying a house in Vancouver instead of renting and I hope they don’t lose their shirts. They both earn well but have student loans and other debt. I pointed out your blog to my brother but he said “That could never happen in Vancouver”. Hmm, do I hope he’s right?”

Garth Turner: “I’d suggest you move from Europe to, say, anywhere else in Canada. Wait for the Lower Mainland to impode, then consider buying. Hang out in Windsor or Sydney for a year or two, where you can live in a mansion for the price of a 475-square-foot concrete box dangling over Robson Street. You might like being in a place where people actually have a life and don’t talk about their houses all the time.”

“After 10 years of renting in Vancouver, me and the missus are finally taking the plunge. Not buying, but leaving this land of scam. Earning $160K+/yr should be enough to afford a couple a decent place to buy.”

Leaving Vancouver at greaterfool.ca 22 May 2010 11:53 am -

“After 10 years of renting in Vancouver, me and the missus are finally taking the plunge. Not buying, but leaving this land of scam. Earning $160K+/yr should be enough to afford a couple a decent place to buy. Not in Vancouver though. Here you get a 2bd 900 sqft box in the sky, for $4K month (mortgage, condo fees, etc). Enough is enough. Heading East where only one of us needs to work at $80K/yr and we can afford a mortgage on a new 2500 sqft house with a nice yard and maybe even a butler. Extremely miffed I am being chased from my province of birth by immigrant money and a $8B/yr illegal pot industry. But, like I said, enough is enough, I am throwing in the towel and Vancouver be damned.”

The “New Canadian Diaspora” – Leaving Vancouver; Two More Examples

These two stories at Max Fawcett’s site, in response to his recent account of leaving Vancouver -

Derek 16 May 2010 6:12 am – “My wife and I recently left Vancouver, we went to Yellowknife. Born and raised in Vancouver, it was hard to leave at first and people certainly didn’t understand why we would leave “the best city on Earth.” But these people also don’t seem to mind being locked into crippling mortgage debt and maxing out credit cards to eat at grossly overpriced restaurants that now have an additional tax on them. All the while earning less than other, cheaper places. Housing AND cost of living are just too high for the “middle class.” For the first time, we actually feel we are getting ahead in our financial goals. Good luck in your move and welcome to the new Canadian diaspora.”

Jen 17 May 2010 3:31 am – “There were four of us in an approximately 500 square-foot basement suite. It was in a great area, but we knew it was just nuts and could not possible be sustainable. We made the move from Vancouver to Saskatoon about three years ago, and our standard of living has improved immensely. We’ve got a beautiful home (at less that 2x annual household income, natch), we live in a great neighborhood, and we’re able to save, plan for the future, and not continually stress about money.”

A Journalist Leaves Vancouver – Max Fawcett’s Goodbye

Just last month we featured local journalist Max Fawcett’s anecdote about friends leaving Vancouver. Max has now announced that he has himself left Vancouver, for Edmonton, and that RE prices are the major reason for his move.  Some confident locals will argue that these desertions are meaningless, that Vancouver will be no less attractive a city without these folks, that there is an endless supply of talent and wealth hankering to get in here, so why should we worry?

We personally have a very different take on this, and believe that this almost invisible loss of human capital is one of the most important ways in which the Vancouver RE bubble has hobbled our city. People who would under normal circumstances be playing various active roles in our communities are chased away by preposterous RE prices.

RE has taken centre stage in our social, cultural and economic life, and that is a place that it doesn’t deserve. We look forward to a time when homes in Vancouver are again seen as places to live, rather than investments or speculative vehicles. And we particularly look forward to a time when it is again possible for people like Max and his friends to make Vancouver home. -vreaa

Read Max’s whole article at MaxFawcett.com 13 May 2010. Excerpts below.

“Having been born and (mostly) raised in Vancouver, I’m not ignorant to its charms. But it long ago became obvious to me that the average citizen who lives there pays a high price for those pleasures, one that’s only gone up in recent years.”

“I lay most of the blame for this state of affairs on the overheated real-state market. When the average couple – one without trust funds, inheritances, or seven-figure jobs – can’t afford to buy the average home, there’s a price to be paid. In the short-term, that price will be paid (in a cruel irony) by those very same average couples, who will leverage themselves into knots to get into the market.”

“Those average couples will start to look elsewhere, to the Edmontons, the Saskatoons, and the Halifaxes of the country, places where middle class people – teachers, journalists, nurses, and tradespeople, for example – can afford to live middle class lives. They’ll move to places where they can afford to save money, to have children, and to plan for the future, rather than remaining on the economic hamster wheel of places like Vancouver and Toronto, where wages remain stagnant while prices shoot ever higher.”

“Both announced their intentions to move out of Vancouver in the next year” – “This city doesn’t want people like us anymore. So I’m listening and leaving.”

Absinthe at vancouvercondo.info 10 May 2010 12:37 pm -

“This weekend, I had friends over for drinks and both announced their intentions to move out of Vancouver in the next year. Both are born and bred in Vancouver, but have recently spent time in Ontario. They’ve realized that life does exist East of the Rockies. One of these friends is in the artistic class – working and being paid in her creative profession, but not rolling in cash. Work tends towards feast and famine. The other friend is currently on mat leave, her husband has been recently laid off. My artistic friend said this: “This city doesn’t want people like us anymore. So I’m listening and leaving.” She also is shocked at how lovely the architecture is “even for us impoverished folks” when you venture East”

“For a 2bed/den in Yaletown you get yourself a castle out here and 30 minutes to downtown. There are lots of better places to live than Vancouver.”

Kanata squirrel 20 Apr 2010 10:08 pm -

“I was in Vancouver – actually made cash in real-estate and left in 2008 (pre-crash) because it was time to move from the crack street to a nice city – like Ottawa where schools are great and jobs are better than Vancouver. After a couple of years in lofty Kanata Lakes [Ottawa], I’m ready to jump down (or up) a few notches and, for a lot less, get myself 20-50 acres of land so my wife can have the organic farm while I keep working in IT. Now, this will cost less than a Yaletown 1 bedroom/den apartment – but a lot bigger and nicer in the end. For a 2bed/den in Yaletown you get yourself a castle out here and 30 minutes to downtown. There are lots of better places to live than Vancouver.”

“I came home today to a stupid orange sold sign and my heart broke. This hasn’t ended. When a dual engineer couple cannot afford decent accommodation in a city.. we do what all smart, mobile, young people do… we will relocate.”

Let’s hope that we are entering a period where “smart, mobile young people” will no longer be chased away by Vancouver RE prices. -vreaa

CoB at greaterfool.ca 20 Apr 2010 8:49 pm -

“Today is the day my spirit has officially been broken. I had been keeping an eye on a condo in our building that was grossly overpriced (even for Vansanity’s prices). On Sunday it went off MLS after being on the market for 2-3 months. I was sure it would be relisted at a reduced price soon because the realtor’s sign was still in the front (with ANOTHER sign for ANOTHER overpriced unit). But alas, I came home today to a stupid orange sold sign and my heart broke. This hasn’t ended. When a dual engineer couple cannot afford decent accommodation in a city.. we do what all smart, mobile, young people do… we will relocate.”

Vancouver Not Realizing Full ‘Real-Estatic’ Potential – “I asked her about the rising listings. She said Vancouver is a real estate city and is under supplied with realtors. They can’t write the offers fast enough. She said money is huge and if you can warm a seat, you can make six figures.”

[breathless] I have an idea, why don’t we ALL become realtors, then sales would be ten times as high, prices would be 85% higher, and we could all accumulate and sell condos to each other and retire rich! …//… When people are even saying that anybody who can “warm a seat, can make six figures” there is absolutely no doubt as to where we are in the market cycle. -vreaa

Greenhorn at RE Talks 15 Apr 2010 8:16 pm -

“I ran into an old neighbor who is a realtor and asked for a market update. She is an ex-neighbor because she recently moved into a newer and bigger house. She is working 18/7 and earning money like a Wall Street Investment Banker. It is absolutely crazy. Buyers are in full panic mode to beat the HST, rising rates and new mortgage rules. I asked her about the rising listings. She had a very good answer. One I have never thought of before. Vancouver is a real estate city and is under supplied with realtors. Basically, listings are piling up because realtors can’t write the offers fast enough. Realtors are the bottle neck as they get bogged down with paper work and deal administration. She said if they had twice the number of realtors in this city, sales would be twice as high, listing inventory would be cut in half and prices would be 10-15% higher. Her comments were that the money is huge and if you can warm a seat, you can make six figures as she drove off in her new Mercedes. Apparently, we have a shortage of real estate sales people.”

British Columbians Selling & Moving To The US – “It was just too good of an opportunity to turn down.”

For many owners, home prices have reached such high levels that cashing out becomes a life-changing proposition. Some act on this; many don’t. Of those who don’t sell now, a good number will try to do so once prices start dropping. It is particularly painful to see what was once a ‘home run’ becoming a ‘single’, and then, perhaps even a ‘strike-out’. These sellers will add to supply as the market falls. -vreaa

CTV News BC ‘Canadians heading south for real estate deals’ ctvbc.ca 9 Apr 2010 7:57 pm -

“As the value of the loonie hovers near par, a growing number of Canadian’s are taking advantage of real estate deals south of the border”

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“The Cruikshanks are packing up their Surrey home, and getting ready to move.” … “Craig Cruikshank will keep his job in Vancouver, but his new home won’t be in BC.”

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['Southern Comfort' packing box. Nice touch. -ed.]

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“It was just too good of an opportunity to turn down.” [Craig Cruikshank]

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“They bought this place in Birch Bay for $274,000.”… “You’d have to go past Hope to compare a home price to that.” [Craig Cruikshank] “Especially by the beach” [Ms. Cruikshank].

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“This new 1,300 sqft home in Blaine is listed for $225,000…”

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“…for that price you couldn’t even buy this 30 year old mobile home in Abbotsford..

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“…or two bedroom condo in Surrey.

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“I’m very proud to be a Canadian… I love this country.. I’m very resentful of the fact that I can’t afford to live here.”  [Craig Cruikshank. Craig's wife is a US citizen.]

“In my circle of friends I’m witnessing an exodus, as they abandon Vancouver. Computer programmers, arts and culture consultants, teachers, video game designers, lawyers: they’ve all found the city, and prospect of trying to build a life here, untenable.”

The following two anecdotes, one concerning an individual and one a social circle, are extracted from an article by Max Fawcett [at maxfawcett.wordpress.com, 8 Apr 2010]. Readers will be aware that we share Fawcett’s concerns regarding individuals leaving or avoiding Vancouver because of our RE Bubble. “Exodus”; “This is a dangerous trend”; “Vancouver’s future is in real jeopardy”. -vreaa

” ‘Jimmy’ is a 30 year-old corporate lawyer with a very good job who earns close to $100,000 and lives in a three bedroom apartment off Commercial Drive with his long-time girlfriend, with whom he’s expecting his first child in a few months. He still has some debts to pay off from school, but once those are cleared away he’d like to be able to buy a home in the near future. The problem is, he explained to me, that he’d have to save for ten years just to be able to afford the mortgage payments on a place of similar quality to the one he currently rents. Yes, he conceded, he could plunk down a small down payment and go eyeballs deep into debt, but if the market ever corrected downwards he might have to spend twenty just to dig himself out of that hole.”

“In my immediate circle of friends I’m in the process of witnessing an exodus, as they abandon Vancouver and the hope of the building a life here and head east in search of a new one. In almost every case, the reason for their departure is the inhospitability – hostility, even – that Vancouver manifests towards anyone trying to build a decent middle class life without a trust fund on which to draw. These people aren’t struggling artists or layabouts, either, but a diverse group of aspiring professionals whose only wish is to find a meaningful job that can provide for a decent lifestyle – one, in other words, that doesn’t include three roommates and Kraft Dinner for supper four times a week. They are computer programmers, arts and culture consultants, teachers, video game designers, and lawyers, and they’ve all found the city and prospect of trying to build a life here untenable.”

“The poor quality of housing construction and design is so obvious, you have to be blind not to notice it.”

Over at robchipman.net, a German man who lived in Vancouver for the last year, is about to return to Berlin, but first shares his impression of our city. Thanks to Híppos Purrós for alerting us to the anecdote.

Here’s German Guy at robchipman.net 29 Mar 2010 1:36 pm -

“Vancouver was a great experience but all good things come to an end I guess. I enjoyed this blog [robchipman.net] and the quality of posts here and learned a lot about the dynamics of BC and RE. As this is my last post here,  I wish you all the best and thank you to all contributors.

Here are some short impressions of my stay here:

Things that I liked:

Canadians:  I met a lot of wonderful people whom I hope to see again here or in Germany and hopefully remain friends for a long time.

The nature The nature The nature: I enjoyed hiking the west coast trail, meeting a wild bear, driving BC Alaska highway, seeing BC wild horses, whale watching , paddling in the Brown lakes, Kootenay Rockies and the wonderful drive from Banff to Jasper,  boarding  BC ferries, skiing in Whistler and lake O’Hara in Yoho park, flying kites with my kids on desert beaches, boating with friends, but most importantly I enjoyed being alone with nature and walking into the roads barely traveled. Only in BC can you do this!

Things I didn’t like:

Health care: I know that many people here are proud of Canadian health system, but our experience was not so good.  After one year here, we still could not find a family doctor. One time my wife had to go to the hospital, she was turned back as there were no rooms available, despite her condition being serious and needing observation according to the doctor . Some long time readers here know my saga with my sinus problem, although not serious, I first went to a walk in clinic last November 2009 only to get an appointment with a specialist by January 28th which after 5 minutes consultation prescribed me an antibiotic Avelox (prohibited in Germany , it almost destroyed my stomach) and a CT scan for which I have appointment on Tuesday October 12th 2010!
Meanwhile I was back in Germany during spring break, saw the specialist and got the CT scan done within 2 weeks, it cost me 95euros.

Public School: We were generally disappointed with the schooling system, kids never came from school with home work nor was really any accountability asked from the teacher. From our understanding the school here seems to be a place where kids go to have fun and play rather than abide to rules, learn the culture of effort and systematic work ethic.
If it is difficult, don’t do it, seems to be the motto.  Fund raising is the main preoccupation of the schools and it is rather frustrating to see the kids come home weekly with fund raising schemes for all kind of things.

Business Opportunities: I could not really find any real business opportunities here rather than some unprofitable franchises in the hospitality industry despite ample pools of capital (2 to 10M). Most small businesses I have analysed have so little profit margins that your money will get a smaller return than leaving it on a 5 year government note.  I looked into farms, wineries, manufacturing, engineering, and hospitality. Business owners I talked to, have extremely exaggerated ideas of the worth of their businesses at least when you look at the cash flow they generate. There seems to be a complete disconnect between risk and reward.
The job market seems to be mainly for low paying  jobs but maybe that is because of the recession.  The best thing that can happen to young people finishing school here is to land a government job or work for a crown corporation or other big company close to the government in my opinion.

Real Estate: Although much has been said here regarding real estate,  I only like to emphasize that the poor quality of construction and design is so obvious, you have to be blind not to notice it.  I have seen brand new construction houses selling for 2+million being built “a la va vite” with poor construction materials, poor design and a mix of tasteless kitschy interior finish that leaves most real estate value on the land rather than building from my perspective.
I have no doubts that Vancouver will get a severe correction in RE prices but trying to time it is a futile exercise.  When the downturn comes it will be painful, and all the myths of the rich Chinese investor and marijuana grow ops (not that they are inexistent!) shall be exposed. People will discover that this bubble is driven mainly by hard working Canadians buying 2 to 3 houses or more on cheap debt subsidised by CHMC, in a desperate rush not to be left behind the neighbour, work colleague, friend etc. as prices keep going higher and higher until they don’t.

Good luck to all. GG”

“I was one of the unlucky 15 million people born into the city that ranks among the bottom 10 in the annual most-livable cities in the world survey. Then, quite magically, later in my life, I find myself among the lucky couple of million that live in the metropolitan region that is consistently on the top of that same list.”

A discussion regarding VREAA at RE Talks led to me observing that there were remarkably few personal stories  from Vancouver RE bulls on the internet. In response, arpakdel (RE Talks, 16 Mar 2010, 6:44 pm) kindly shared their story, which is archived here verbatim. It is an impassioned argument that demand for Vancouver is and will remain overwhelming. -vreaa

“Allright, here is a long one for your archives. It’s a bit of a story – my story, but it may just be right balance you need after posting the bit from that bitter woman that calls Vancouver a “second-rate backwater”:

I think the forces of the universe decided to first curse me and then to bless me. You see, because I was one of the unlucky 15 million people that was born into the city that ranks among the bottom 10 in the annual most-livable cities in the world survey. But then quite magically sometime later in my life, I find myself among the lucky couple of million that live in the metropolitan region that is consistently on the top of that same list – and funny enough, that city where I came from, although smaller in size than Vancouver, is already half the population of Canada.

But I would have settled for less than that. Hell, if I was put in just about any city in this mind-boggling massive country, I would have thanked the heavens and sacrificed the 30 goats I had pledged anyways.

And that may be my problem: I know what a shitty place to live in means first hand, and I shake my head when people living here just don’t get it. They can’t understand why a place like Vancouver will always be covetted by both insiders and outsiders. They don’t get that in our ever shrinking world, that means the demand for it will always be insatiable. For every one person that complains it rains too much here, I can find you 15 million of my country men that will smack in the face for not appreciating what it’s fresh air does to the body and soul. For everyone that will protest the politics of this blissfully free country, I will find you 15 million of my country men that will laugh and scorn how petty it is, because they grew up under the arbiterary whim of some beared ayotallah, and the boot of basij in their face. And for every one person that complains about the high-prices here and goes on and on about affordability and rental value analysis, the same 15 million will tell you the streets of their capital are littered with brilliant young minds with PhD’s in arm who can’t find jobs to pay half their rents and instead roam the streets each evening like mindless zombies, each day suicide looking more and more like a good vacation – and that is nothing to say of the 99% of the rest of young people who were not enough academic prodigies to even be able to get a seat in the extremely competetive universities or colleges.

But forget about that 15 million. The country is home to 70 million people. A small percent of that country is rich enough to buy their way into Canada. And what do you think they will do? They will buy homes. They will buy homes for themselves. And they will buy homes for their children. The other small percent will fight their way to Canada with teeth and nails…. and what will they do? Yes, they will buy homes, and they will buy them at market value. Your ROI, rental-value, forgone-oppurtunity analysis be fu**kin damned.

But forget about the country of 70 million people. Can you guess how many of the 4 billion in asia will want to live in a place like Vancouver? By 2020 the Vancouver region’s population is estimate to grow to 3 million. Some will move to Coquitlam, some will move to Surrey. They are coming, and they are not listening to your outcries that the prices for those “armpit sides of the city” are stupid stupid and that they are wrong for buying. While you scream, they will buy.

And you know what that means for you my dear friend? it will means increased demand everywhere.

Where people want to live and play, demand for real estate will always be there. And Vancouver is as prime as it gets. The formula that makes amazing is simple: take a country blessed with political freedom and economic riches, make a beautiful urban oasis along side a rugged coastal wonder, sprinkle it with mild weather, and voila. You have hit gold. Gold baby gold.”

“I’ve been waiting in Vancouver since 2004 when prices looked too high. Today the wife circled a date on the calender, April 2011, suggesting my theories had had their time long enough. By that date next year we buy a place in Van or find another town where we can.”

The bubble market has greatly inconvenienced many regular citizens who, under normal circumstances, would have bought property at reasonable prices (even given that there’d be a Vancouver premium) and be getting on with their lives. Instead, they are ruminating about the RE market and some are even considering leaving town. These forces are not good for our community. -vreaa

jay at greaterfool.ca 11 Mar 2010 2:14 am – “I’ve been waiting in Vancouver since 2004 when prices looked too high and I had just got married. Now two kids and 6 years later we have saved a lot but not enough… still renting. The wife circled a date on the calender today, April 2011, suggesting my theories had had their time long enough. By that date next year we buy a place in Van or find another town where we can…”

From Someone Who Left – “That’s the problem with Vancouver. It promises so much, but delivers so little. Unless you’re making a ton of money.”

scullboy at vancouvercondo.info 6 Mar 2010 9:25 am – “I [also] gave up caring about ownership, and actually I had a good hard look around Vancouver before I made the decision to leave. I’ve spent about 60K all told in the last 5 years going to different schools so I could gain wealth the old fashioned way…. through work. What I saw in Vancouver didn’t look good. As far as I could tell the only people able and willing to rent in [my] building were people who made a lot of money under the tables (hookers, waiters etc) and cops, who have a pretty good salary and pension plan.  A LOT of my friends who were working in eBay, EA etc were getting laid off. They were pretty calm about the whole thing, as they had pretty good packages. They all said the same thing “Everyone needs IT people”. After 5 years of stormy seas I realized yeah, everyone needs IT people but if you skills are even a 10% mismatch, you won’t get the job. It there are 500 applicants and you were the second choice… guess what, you lose and you’re back to Square 1. Even given many years of management experience and a great education, I found most of the restaurants in Vancouver [where I worked as a chef] were run by shady jerks with questionable business acumen. At my age (38) and with my skills, starting over and getting repeatedly ripped off was not an option. If you had to stay in your current position (job, home etc) for the next 5-10 years would you be happy? By the end of my stay in Van, I was frustrated and miserable. Despite about 15 years in IT, a degree and a professional certification (PMP), I simply couldn’t find work in that sector. The restaurant jobs I was getting were crappy and ridiculous. I was making 15 bucks an hour cooking for a 200 seat restaurant in a kitchen half the size and far less well equipped then the one I’m sitting in now. I think that’s the problem with Van: It promises so much, but delivers so little, unless you’re making a ton of money… and my that I mean healthy six figures. There just aren’t that many legit jobs like that in Van. You really have to be a gangster, a drug kingpin, someone involved in human trafficing or a real estate agent. I think most of the bears understand instinctively you may spend all your money on the “investment” of a home in Vancouver, but you aren’t going to be happy living in it, and I think making decisions based on what makes you happy seems to be the best course of action. That’s what I chose and now instead of living in a crappy penthouse with an amazing view but situated in a shady building, I’m enjoying the Maritime sunshine is a light filled kitchen so large, I was able to set up a really nice little home office. I have a garden, a front years, a back yard and a shed. While there are no mountains, I do have a great view of the MacKay Bridge and the Atlantic ocean. Rental cost for this 1,000 sq ft bit of heaven: $975 including heat lights and power. Now *that*’s affordable, which makes me *VERY* happy.”

Post Olympic Job Losses – “The show’s host had to ask her several times how many people were hired who will now be out of work. After much dodging she finally came up with a ballpark figure. Over 50,000″

bestplaceonmeth at vancouvercondo.info 2 Mar 2010 at 5:31 pm – “I was listening to a spokesperson from Adecco Employment Services on CBC this morning, they’re the ones who hired people for the Olympics. The show’s host had to ask her several times how many people were hired who will now be out of work. After much dodging she finally came up with a ballpark figure.”Over 50,000″ was her answer.”

“I just sold a $1Million+ home in Vancouver. If the value of your home goes through the roof, it only makes sense to sell. Move farther out and smaller and do it again. Do this twice and you can retire. We did.”

At what price points do some home-owners cash out because the money becomes too attractive, too life-changing, to ignore? -vreaa

This from comments by robercarter at CBC.ca 24 Feb 2010 11:00 pm and 11:08 pm -

“I just sold a $1Million+ home in Vancouver through ReMax and yes…the listings were minimal which was good for me. I doubt that this trend will continue but if it does….good luck everybody. I wouldn’t buy a house in Vancouver right now if I had a hundred million dollars. Far better places to invest right now. If you want to live in Vancouver, rent. I’ve heard time and time again that your house is your home, not an investment. This is surely warm & fuzzy but completely stupid. Your home (house) is the most expensive purchase of your lives. If its value goes through the roof it only makes sense to sell. Move farther out and smaller and do it again. Do this twice and you can retire. We did. Just take the emotion out of your home (house) and you can make more than almost any other investment. Just a thought…”

More “Got Rich Off Vancouver Real Estate” stories – “Glad he’s done well and hasn’t changed his stripes. “Smarter” people would have sold it or developed it far earlier.”

rofina at RE Talks 3 Feb 2010 6:22 pm – “My parents are a pretty typical Vancouver RE success story. They bought multiple properties at a reasonable time. Their principal residence has tripled in value in the last decade, this property alone makes them paper millionaires. All their rental condos are up a ridiculous amount, and all rent for cash-flow. Their outstanding mortgages are minimal, and really make little difference on the bottom line. The ironic part? They are very bullish people, to them Vancouver RE can do no harm. This is ironic for a few reasons. They purchased a NV property in 92 or 93, three years later they needed to sell it to raise capital for a new PR, they were unable to sell at a 20% discount.”

thinktom at RE Talks 3 Feb 2010 7:20 pm – “I have a friend who paid $800k for a Point Grey Property and live in the crappy house for a while. Sold the lot, essentially, for $3.2M a few years later. That’s about the best one I can think of for a one-time transaction.”

RiskArb at RE Talks 3 Feb 2010 11:25 pm – “Dumbest guy in our grad class in high-school…. we studied on exchange in France and he couldn’t find Vancouver on a map to show our French classmates. Also notorious cheap-ass who would scrounge for pennies underneath the football stands . Worked as a security guard back then and still does now. Anyways, he worked his butt off during school and put down ~$50,000 alongside his brother into an acreage in Surrey near/beside King George Hwy. Was a tear down home on agricultural land (ALR). This was during the NDP days with Glen Clark at the helm…. and Surrey was the sh*thole par excellence. Here’s basically what happened in the ensuing 7 years:
Year 0: ALR acreage with tear-down house. Sits vacant
Year 2: Removed from ALR and zoned for 2 single-family houses
Year 4: Rezoned from single-family towards higher density/multiplex (3 or 4 lot potential I think)
Year 7: Zoned commercial / strip mall
The guy and his brother just let it sit because they had no clue how to develop it and just wanted to hold it. As of 3 months ago they hadn’t sold it yet but had offers north of $3mm. I don’t know even think he ever formally listed it and could probably get more than that via a competitive process. So I think he’s gonna list it pretty soon….. and he told me that once he sells it, he’s finally gonna get a decent car – A VW Jetta. Glad he’s done well and hasn’t changed his stripes. “Smarter” people would have sold it or developed it far earlier.”

gpdu at RE Talks 4 Feb 2010 4:53 pm – “I met a couple in their seventies a couple years ago. The gentleman was a engineer at BC Hydro. He bought a 20 unit building in Van West, for $170,000 and is still holding it, in the 70′s. You figure how much it is worth now.”

RiskArb at RE Talks 6 Feb 2010 12:43 am – “I know one couple that started with 1 rental property investment about 17 years ago. Every few years they’d sell, pony up a bit more of their savings and move on to something bigger. Now they’re retired, have two 30 room apartments (those 4 level buildings that take up half a block)and act as the property managers doing the upkeep, maintenance, lawn etc.. They’ve got a funny Keyser Soze shtick going on whereby none of the tenants know they own the property… they’re just the friendly ‘fix-it’ people. And I know at least 3 other families, all educated immigrants working as accountants/engineers who did the whole “develop, live, flip” routine every 5-7 years…… but I don’t want to extol their savvy as 2 of them don’t pay nearly enough taxes.”

gpdu at RE Talks 6 Feb 2010 11:51 am – “I think I can tell my story. I started by buying a duplex in Surrey in June 2002. There are four units in it. I sold it in 2006 after the price doubled, netting $250K. I paid off the mortgage on my primary residence and sent my daughter to private school. I bought almost every year after that, and now have a total of 30 units, in the Fraser Valley, Northeast BC, Alberta, and Texas. I never bought closer than Surrey because of the cash flow situation.”

Bear Vitriol: “I personally know over a dozen uneducated blue collar people that can now survive on their measly 45k salaries because their homes have doubled, and even with a correction, will still be far ahead of the bears.”

Here’s  Continuous Burn at vancouvercondo.info 26 Jan 2010 12:02 pm -

“We all thought we were smarter than the “greaterfools” that ran out to buy in a supposed “bubble.” Four years later and the majority of those greaterfools have received paper equity gains that the average bear will never see in his lifetime, and if they were to cash out or have cashed out, have earned once in a lifetime gains. The funny thing is that a bunch of uneducated blue collar people and immigrants who were told that RE was the best investment have done the right thing, and have reaped the rewards. The educated ones that have conducted market analyses and adhere to perceived “common sense” have been left renting for years, and will like continue to rent for many many many years to come as this thing slowly deflates. I personally know over a dozen uneducated dolts that can now survive on their measly 45k salaries because their homes have doubled, and even with a correction, will still be far ahead of the bears. Some have made hundreds of thousands, which would take a lifetime for savers to make by saving and investing that “renter’s premium.” They have more equity and cash than those earning close to six figures and will come out far ahead of the prudent savers and market timers.” [Only if they actually cash out, and how many do you know who are doing that? -vreaa]

“Leaving Vancouver is like leaving an insane asylum… To question RE is like questioning the existence of a God to a group of Christian fundamentalists.”

Cult-like sentiment. Misallocation of human capital. ‘Junius’ lays it out; we agree. -vreaa

This from junius at greaterfool.ca 23 Jan 2010 10:27 am - “Vancouver is the epicenter of RE insanity in Canada. There is no market like it. I speak to friends who have moved from here to Toronto, Calgary, Ottawa or Montreal – or abroad – and they all say it is like leaving an insane asylum. It is much, much more than the outrageous and inflated prices. The culture in Vancouver is so deeply tied to the notion that RE prices cannot do anything but go up forever you can easily find yourself outcast just for expressing a contrary opinion. It is like expressing an opinion questioning the existence of a God to a group of Christian fundamentalists. I worry most about how deeply a crash would impact the Gen Ys who have both pursued a career in RE and leveraged themselves to the ceiling in debt. I cannot tell you how many bright young people I have met who have left traditional careers – teaching, engineering, law, etc. to pursue the easy riches of a career in RE. Some are agents, some are in marketing, some are in mortgage lending and finance. However in each case they left because a career in RE paid better and appeared to be more solid in the long run. I am sad for this group because many of them have really just started in the last decade when things could not have been better. They will find it nearly impossible to replace the income they enjoyed over the past few years and in many cases will have to in order to keep their investments. A crash will hit them hard in so many ways.”

junius adds some specifics, at 10:35 pm – “My favourite place to watch the insanity of Vancouver prices is on the Prompton Board at the Roundhouse on Davie Street. It has a bevy of current listings for premium apartments in Yaletown. If you are in the areas pass by and take a look – more than a little amusing. What you will see are mostly condos in the 900K to 3 million range. The majority lately are in the 1.1-1.8 range which is what a 2 bedroom in the 1100 sq ft. range lists for. Over the past few month almost all of the movement has been in the under 800K range. I noticed that yesterday only one unit out of about 40 listings had sold. It was a 1 bedroom that was listed at 650,000 that sold for 580,000 – more than 10% off list. Just one listing but it could be a sign of things to come.”

Crucial Kitsilano Boomer Anecdote – “Selling her valuable home might be the best option for woman hankering to retire”

BC is on the cusp of the Boomer Retirement Years. The number of people turning 65 in any given year is about to almost double. A large number of those boomers are overdependent on RE for retirement funds, and will have to sell. This will result in a significant increase in RE supply and will apply downward pressure to prices. Falling prices may in turn increase the rate of retirees cashing out, as they see their retirement funds (aka market value of home) dwindling. Here is an anecdote from a boomer, reproduced in full because of its crucial relevance to the Vancouver RE market. -vreaa

This from Dianne Maley in the ‘Financial Facelift’ section of the Globe and Mail, 22 Jan 2010 6:06 pm -

Hard choices, changes are called for : Selling her valuable home might be the best option for woman hankering to retire

“At 61, Ruth’s thoughts are turning to the day when she can quit her stressful job with its long hours and spend more time travelling, doing yoga, hiking and taking courses at the university. While she is active and in good health now, Ruth had a health scare last year. “An incident like that makes you think and reflect on what’s really important in life,” she writes in an e-mail.

What’s most important is being able to help her 21-year-old son, who graduates in July, to pursue a career in the theatre.

Ruth’s main asset is her house in the trendy Kitsilano neighbourhood of Vancouver, which she figures is worth $1.35-million. We asked Gina Macdonald, financial planner and portfolio manager at Macdonald, Shymko & Co. Ltd. in Vancouver to look at Ruth’s situation.

What our Expert Says If she continues to work until she’s 65, Ruth’s income will still fall short of her retirement goals if she continues to live in her Kitsilano home. Without paying off her mortgage, Ruth will need $59,000 a year after taxes, the planner estimates. That number would fall to $42,000 if the mortgage is paid off. Ruth’s two indexed pensions will only give her about $696 a month. She will be eligible for full Canada Pension Plan and Old Age Security benefits of $17,414 a year, which will raise her monthly income stream to $2,147, or about $26,000 a year. This does not even cover her housing expenses of $2,632 (mortgage, property taxes, insurance, utilities, telephone, repairs), Ms. Macdonald points out. As well, the interest rate on her 24-year, $230,000 mortgage could rise from the current 5.1-per-cent rate, requiring more than the $1,430 a month she currently pays. With the mortgage, her income shortfall is $2,770 a month, about $33,000 a year. Even without the mortgage, she’d be short about $1,353 a month, about $16,000 a year. The mortgage is clearly an obstacle. If Ruth continues to rent out her basement suite at $933 a month, the shortfall (with the mortgage) would drop to $1,837, about $22,000 a year. One option for Ruth is that she could apply for the B.C. Property Tax Deferral program, saving her another $458 a month and shaving the shortfall to $1,379.

Ms. Macdonald offers several possible solutions for Ruth to make up the shortfall. First, Ruth could withdraw money from her registered savings to generate enough income to stay in her home. She would need to take about $22,000 a year in order to get after-tax income of $16,548. (This, plus her pension income of about $26,000, would raise her income to the desired $42,000). At a 3-per-cent rate of return in her RRSP account, she could do this for up to 13 years before she ran out of money – and the mortgage still would not be paid off in full. At that point Ruth would have to sell her home. Other possible solutions include renting out more space in the house or even moving into the basement apartment until the mortgage is paid off or until she receives a possible inheritance. Alternatively, Ruth could downsize to a house that costs no more than $850,000, which would leave enough money to generate an income stream (with her other income sources) of about $50,000 a year. “The new house could have a basement suite to generate additional cash flow for travel goals and for big ticket replacements such as a new roof or new furnace,” Ms. Macdonald says.

Critical to Ruth’s success is a revamping of her investment portfolio, Ms. Macdonald notes. “A 100-per-cent equity portfolio is inappropriate for a 61-year-old woman nearing retirement with limited resources.” Given the relatively small size of Ruth’s RRSPs, Ms. Macdonald recommends a diversified portfolio of index funds because of their low cost and the diversification they offer. She also suggests a bond or GIC ladder, in which a portion of the fixed-income securities mature each year. Finally, Ruth has the capacity to save about $1,000 a month as long as she continues working, which she can use to replace her 17-year-old car with a new used one, catch up with her $10,000 in unused RRSP room, open a tax-free savings account and make repairs to her house.”

Financial Advisor: “I have lost business because of my bearish position on the subject of Canadian real estate.”

These excerpts from an e-mail that a financial advisor from either Alberta or BC sent to Garth Turner, as quoted on greaterfool.ca 17 Jan 2010 -

“In my profession I have always fielded questions from anyone I talk to regarding whether or not real estate is a good investment. I think, lately, they are just asking to get affirmation instead of a real answer.  Regardless, my recent responses are being universally poorly received. I will be the first to acknowledge that anecdotal evidence isn’t, but I have come to feel from my experience with the Canadian populace that I am fighting a battle [using] common sense and losing. I have yet to see the light at the end of the tunnel. I fear it will come only once the dust settles. And then, as always, only for a time. Amusingly, I have even lost business because of my position on the subject of Canadian real estate. The moment I realized that my view was affecting my career came as a shock to me, so much so that for about three long seconds I considered that maybe it wasn’t in my best interest to tell the truth. Too bad for my pay-cheque that I consider my job to be that of providing impartial and unbiased (as much as humanly possible) investment advice that is in the client’s best interest. I have been bearish about real estate in Canada since my wife and I sold our townhouse in 2007. After three years of moving twice a year and watching our friends buy property literally like it’s going out of style, even my wife is asking the question, “What if we are wrong?”

In response to the above, junius comments 17 Jan 2010 9:42pm – “I know that feeling living here in Vancouver. Being a Real Estate Bear is a very dangerous position to take. It stresses friendships and family in ways few non-moral or political issues do.”

“RE in Vancouver has given me the opportunity to save for my retirement without having to save.”

This from soju at greaterfool.ca 4 Jan 2010 6:51 pm -

“RE in Vancouver has given me the opportunity to save for my retirement without having to save (RRSP and such). I’ve always been able to put 5% on the table and sell at a later date and make enough cash to put another 5% down on the next place and put the rest in basic savings. As prices move-up I simply move a bit further from Vancouver and repeat the process. I like RE because I can use more leverage than the stock market and if prices go down at least I have a place to live in or rent out.  I can certainly agree that this strategy sounds ridiculous for some individuals living in other areas. For some [you'd be] lucky to buy your dream home immediately, and spend the next 25 years or less paying it off without moving around, but for us, [we have] the price per square foot we need to keep flipping up to eventually buy our dream place. … I don’t think interest rates will go up mid-year [2010]. The Canadian dollar is already showing more strength as of late. Unless the government doesn’t mind the dollar going to 1.10 against the USD. I also think prices in Vancouver for 2010 will gain more than 10% before taking a breather. I’ve been through 2 RE booms and things just haven’t gotten out of hand yet.”

“I am one of many young Canadians that migrated west to take advantage of the economic boom. I might be one of many that won’t stay because I’m priced out of the housing market.”

This from taylor192 at vancouvercondo.info 6 Jan 2010 2:07 pm -

“I am one of many young Canadians that migrated west to take advantage of the economic boom. I might be one of many that won’t stay cause I’m priced out of the housing market. I’ve had discussions recently with other 25-35yos that are considering a move back east once the economy here starts to struggle or it’s time to start a family. It just doesn’t make sense to take on high housing costs to stay here, or when the Olympic/construction job markets dry up. The alternative is to flee metro Vancouver to the burbs of Surrey leaving behind the beach/mountains that brought us here. Might as well continue heading east, back to where we came and much cheaper housing costs.”

“I’m a lender for a large Credit Union in Vancouver. Refinancing either in form of Line of Credits or second mortgage is huge business. People have used their houses as ATMs in a very big way.”

This from Ultraman at greaterfool.ca 22 Dec 2009 1:50 pm -

“I’m a lender for a large Credit Union in Vancouver, refinancing either in form of Line of Credits or second mortgage is huge business. Yes, people have used their house as an ATM in a very big way.”

“I have friends in their mid 50’s to early 60’s who have stopped working. Cheap money creates a high level of complacency among existing home owners.”

Surging housing prices have led many homeowners to change their retirement plans. Whether they decrease their rate of savings, spend their savings, or retire early, it all adds up to a dangerously disproportionate reliance on future RE prices. -vreaa

Summed up well by Direct at greaterfool.ca 22 Dec 2009 1:44 am -

“Cheap money creates a high level of complacency among existing home owners. I have friends in their mid 50’s to early 60’s who have stopped working. These homeowners believe they will sell their houses in five years, make a killing, and move to a beach in Mexico. All their equity is embedded in their homes.”

“I am in government relations. I vow that should the government contemplate any type of homeowner bailout, I will be organizing a ‘grass roots’ campaign to lobby against it.”

Sign me up. -vreaa

This from GR, the possible future leader of a grass roots movement, at vancouvercondo.info 11 Dec 2009 12:05 pm -

“I am in government relations, with experience at the federal, provincial, and local government levels. I have vowed for the past two years that should the federal government contemplate any type of homeowner bailout, I will be organizing a “grass roots” campaign to lobby against said type of bailout.”

“I am Realtor. Nothing Realtorian is Alien to Me.”

Okay, only kidding, the quote is fabricated, there aren’t any Vancouver realtors who routinely paraphrase Terence. But the recently released National Film Board of Canada film series ‘GDP’, ‘Measuring the human side of the Canadian economic crisis’, does feature a raw and strangely poignant portrait of a  27 year old Vancouver Realtor named Keith Roy.  Keith is a former restaurant manager who is recently married. In the three short films (released Sept-Nov 2009), Keith, who works the Marpole area of South Vancouver, shows remarkable confidence and even more remarkable candidness as he describes his dreams & strategies, and tells us what it takes to muscle in as a RE ‘professional’.  Dressing for ‘gravitas’, becoming a celebrity, poaching assistants, ‘taking it up a notch’, quick profits, bribing tenants. As the NFB site itself puts it: “Did somebody say bubble?” -vreaa

Extracts from  1. Dressing for success:

[to his tailor] “I’m a pretty skinny looking guy, and I look rather young, so when I walk into a room and I am going to say to someone, “You know what, I want you to pay me tens of thousands of dollars to sell a multimillion dollar asset”, I need to have some gravitas.”

“My goal is to achieve local celebrity status. I want to walk into a coffee shop and have people say, “Hey, you’re the guy from the real estate sign”.”

Extracts from 2. Competitive edge:

“I have got a new assistant starting. I headhunted her from another real estate team in the city.”

“I do a lot of work with lawyers, accountant, doctors, engineers, basically six figure income earners under the age of 35 with professional degrees. I like working with that clientele for a couple of reasons. One, I am just like them.”

“I am very good at an open house. I’m on, I’m professional, I’m I would say better than 95% of people out there doing open houses so I get clients at open houses. And the 20% of us who sell 80% of properties do things a little different. We take it up a notch. We do things on a higher level. We do things more professionally.”

Extracts from 3. Hot property.

“A lot of my clients are lawyers and it’s because a lot of my friends are lawyers. I did a degree in political science. All my friends went to law school and I went on to become a real estate agent. So I am fairly used to lawyers as a type. M_ is also my lawyer and I got in a car accident a couple of years ago. He is a personal injury lawyer and he got me a great settlement, substantially more than I had initially been offered by the insurance company so we have a pretty trusting relationship.”

M_: “He [Keith Roy] told me in March when I bought a townhouse and at that point I was contemplating selling this existing property. He told me at that time that it was not a good time to sell. That is very trustworthy advice. If a realtor who was going to make a profit and commission, tells me it is not a good time to sell, that’s a guy I can trust. Today, when he tells me I should sell, I take his word for it. Frankly, I have made a lot of money in equity on that place already. We bought it at the very downturn of the market in March [2009] and we bought it for less than what it would have cost at that point. I think myself at least $100,00 more than I paid for it.”

“…in [marketing] a condo that’s mostly open houses and it is a matter of access and we will negotiate that with the tenant in such a way that it appeals to them. Now I have Canucks tickets, I have Giant’s tickets, I have a pretty good selection of stuff that I bribe tenants with.”

[Full transcripts of each segment posted in the comments section].

[Update 1 Jan 2010 - Realtor Larry Yatkowsky has a post at his blog YatterMatters 8 Dec 2009, discussing Keith Roy and the NFB production. Roy has himself added a comment, which is archived below.]

Keith Roy at YatterMatters 12 Jan 2010 8:56 pm – “Happy to see that people are watching the videos and in some cases enjoying them – whether for real interest, comical value or just killing time. I will say, this is not a commercial – it is an actual documentary. We don’t do outtakes and there are errors that occur. A camera follows me around and offers the public insight into what I do as a realtor and a community member, day to day. I was approached by the NFB and offered myself up for their project. I would be happy to take a call from any of the anonymous bloggers to discuss the matter further. And – as for the suits… The suits I get at Samson’s tailors are usually $600 – $800. For a hard fit like me (tall and skinny) that is a great deal. Previously, I would buy a $500 suit at the Bay, spent $150 on alterations and still not have a well fitting suit. So, the really lesson here is for a great deal on a suit, visit Samson’s tailors.”

“In about 1997 a good, intelligent friend said I’d be better off to rent because housing prices were too high and would probably come down.”

There are Vancouver RE bears who have been wrong for a long, long time. Many have friends who have done very well as owners.

This from realisticman at The Tyee 2 Dec 2009 -

“About twelve years ago a good, intelligent friend said I’d be better off to rent because housing prices were too high and would probably come down. He said, keep your money in the bank and earn the interest. I didn’t listen and bought. Risking all my savings and risking too that I could become horribly in debt, particularly if a crash came. Well it didn’t come and instead of earning almost nothing on cash because of low interest rates I now have a home and no matter if it’s worth a million or a hundred thousand I don’t care because this roof and this space is mine.”